The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[Wymsey]

It's one of them where if a majority is seen and a decision is made, there will still be plenty of critics.

 

Really is the million pound question.

[Countryfox]

I'll be voting out, Although I do fear short term for the country if the conservatives are left in power, and I say this as a conservative voter, they scare me, truly lost touch with real life.

 

I'm with you Lee but whats the alternative ? .......     Corbyn over here and Trump over there  ? ....    the perfect storm .....   scary !!

[Rincewind]

I'm with you Lee but whats the alternative ? .......     Corbyn over here and Trump over there  ? ....    the perfect storm .....   scary !!

It will be like a hurricane hitting an earthquake.

[Guest MattP]

We've lost; I spoke to quite a few people today who were undecided and they are voting to stay based on the fact no decent alternative has been put forward to leave. I think only the brain of Gove v Cameron could save this and no way will

number ten let that happen.

This is thes strangest referendum ever. The leader of vote leave really wants to stay in and the leader of Labour is campaigning for in but wants to leave.

At least politics isn't boring.

[Strokes]

We've lost; I spoke to quite a few people today who were undecided and they are voting to stay based on the fact no decent alternative has been put forward to leave. I think only the brain of Gove v Cameron could save this and no way will

number ten let that happen.

This is thes strangest referendum ever. The leader of vote leave really wants to stay in and the leader of Labour is campaigning for in but wants to leave.

At least politics isn't boring.

Yeah I don't see it happening, never did really. I just hope for a close encounter so it's not off the table in the future. A disjointed leave campaign hasn't helped in the slightest.

[Guest MattP]

Pretty much where I am mate.

Farage will be happy though, could see a UKIP surge. Where it leaves the Tories I have no idea!

[Strokes]

Pretty much where I am mate.

Farage will be happy though, could see a UKIP surge. Where it leaves the Tories I have no idea!

I don't think the tories have done themselves any favours on either side of the campaign and the way they are alienating the electorate they could be in big trouble. Cameron is a snake and will leave the party in tatters Blair mk2.

[Guest MattP]

Cameron is grotesque, I'd rather eat my own turd than ever vote for that slimeball again.

We waited 20 odd years for a Tory government and we have had nothing, no serious reform of anything, no policy put forward that hasn't been reversed.

Now the whole thing has become about a remain vote to save Cameron and Osborne, it's a complete joke.

[Strokes]

Cameron is grotesque, I'd rather eat my own turd than ever vote for that slimeball again.

We waited 20 odd years for a Tory government and we have had nothing, no serious reform of anything, no policy put forward that hasn't been reversed.

Now the whole thing has become about a remain vote to save Cameron and Osborne, it's a complete joke.

Exactly, he has already betrayed his party and IMO his country. He never went to the EU for a better deal, he went there to feather his nest. The only saving grace for the tories for me, is that the backbenches have challenged him a fair bit.

[Rincewind]

Cameron is grotesque, I'd rather eat my own turd than ever vote for that slimeball again.

We waited 20 odd years for a Tory government and we have had nothing, no serious reform of anything, no policy put forward that hasn't been reversed.

Now the whole thing has become about a remain vote to save Cameron and Osborne, it's a complete joke.

For once I agree with you. And I will remember your second line.

[Dodgy Bob]

I don't feel alienated. Cameron promised a referendum and he has delivered. You can't blame him if the people decide they want to stay.

I'm fearful ahead of the next general election. If we vote to remain UKIP will undoubtedly get a major boost. Boris will probably be tory leader. It'll be a three way battle between Corbyn, Farage and Boris. The idiots well and truly taking over the asylum.

[Strokes]

I don't feel alienated. Cameron promised a referendum and he has delivered. You can't blame him if the people decide they want to stay.

I'm fearful ahead of the next general election. If we vote to remain UKIP will undoubtedly get a major boost. Boris will probably be tory leader. It'll be a three way battle between Corbyn, Farage and Boris. The idiots well and truly taking over the asylum.

Of course I can blame him, he is the lead on the remain campaign. He said he would advise the country to vote out unless he got the reforms he wanted and we needed, I don't believe has reformed anything. He is a fraud.

[Dodgy Bob]

Of course I can blame him, he is the lead on the remain campaign. He said he would advise the country to vote out unless he got the reforms he wanted and we needed, I don't believe has reformed anything. He is a fraud.

I think what he actually said was that he might think again about wanting us to remain if he didn't get what he wanted. "Might" and "think again", no hard promises, and they were said in the run up to the negotiations in an attempt to ramp up pressure on the EU. He has to my knowledge always wanted us to stay in the EU regardless, but promised a referendum to let the people make their own decision on which he has delivered.

I suppose you can blame him in some ways, but ultimately this will be a democratic vote. If we stay in, it'll be because the majority want us to, not because of Cameron. Most remain voters probably don't even vote tory and I'm sure many don't like Cameron. Him being the leader of the remain campaign, if anything has probably forced natural remain voters into reconsidering.

[johnny the fox]

"No ifs, buts or maybe's , we WILL Get immigration down" quote: david cameron.....the man lies on speck..

[Sharpe's Fox]

Cameron admits he would rather see a Labour goverment in the EU than a Tory one outside it. He knows that whatever we vote in GE's will come second to the push or shove neoliberal dominance in Brussels.

[johnny the fox]

Cameron admits he would rather see a Labour goverment in the EU than a Tory one outside it. He knows that whatever we vote in GE's will come second to the push or shove neoliberal dominance in Brussels.

he let the cat of the bag though...he said you can vote to change our government every 5 years... but you can't vote to change / get rid  of the EU government....

[Alf Bentley]

We've lost; I spoke to quite a few people today who were undecided and they are voting to stay based on the fact no decent alternative has been put forward to leave. I think only the brain of Gove v Cameron could save this and no way will

number ten let that happen.

This is thes strangest referendum ever. The leader of vote leave really wants to stay in and the leader of Labour is campaigning for in but wants to leave.

At least politics isn't boring.

 

 

I don't think the referendum is decided at all, even if there has been a recent shift towards Remain.

 

Poll in Guardian yesterday:  http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/21/tory-eu-referendum-voters-switching-remain-opinium-observer-poll

 

That shows a 4% lead for Remain, but if you scroll down to the bottom section, it says that 67% of Leave voters see the referendum as more important than a General Election (I agree with them), but only 47% of Remain votes say the same.

On that basis, you'd have to expect a higher turnout among Leave supporters than among Remain (particularly if the latter start to see the outcome as a foregone conclusion - they could get a nasty surprise).

 

Interesting, too, that the Remain lead among Tory voters is actually HIGHER than the lead overall. So, either a lot of Tories are starting to switch to UKIP or the Leave vote is very high among Labour voters (both, I suspect).

 

There are still 4-5 weeks to go, and events and campaigning will still affect the outcome - in which direction, who knows? Depends on the nature of the events and the quality of the campaigning, I suppose.

 

I do think that Leave have been crazy to have the whole campaign effectively fronted by Boris, Gove, IDS & other Tory ministers (plus a semi-detached Farage). I appreciate that they haven't got any Labour big names on board, but why aren't they giving a more prominent role to Gisela Stuart, Kate Hoey & other Labour Leave supporters? Or David Owen, for that matter? I appreciate that you're a passionate Leave supporter, Matt, so you'd probably vote entirely on political substance. But just imagine for a minute that the Leave campaign was fronted by Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott (plus a semi-detached Galloway). That's the mirror image - and that would put off a lot of right-wingers, wouldn't it? To be fair to you, you've always seen the need for the Leave campaign to be broad (Right, Centre & Left), but so far it's coming across as largely a campaign for the Right: Thatcherism with a bit of right-wing nationalism thrown in, not emphasising democracy or potential benefits for Labour/Left voters or giving a prominent role to anyone from that side of politics.

 

I'm still hoping for a better-quality debate, but am not holding my breath. Both sides have been terrible - and terribly dishonest and/or lacking in substance in their claims. 

[Alf Bentley]

The referendum voting by region is going to be interesting. I'm expecting there to be some big variations.

 

Very roughly, I'd expect:

- Strongly Remain: Scotland, London

- Narrowly Remain: N. Ireland, most big cities (Manchester, Birmingham etc.), prosperous parts of SE & SW

- 50-50: E. Midlands, Wales(?)

- Narrowly Leave: Yorkshire, less prosperous part of SE, Black Country, Cornwall

- Strongly Leave: E. Lincs, E. Kent, S. Essex, deindustralised areas (Sunderland, Hartlepool, S. Yorks, E. Lancs?), Potteries

[Strokes]

I don't think the referendum is decided at all, even if there has been a recent shift towards Remain.

 

Poll in Guardian yesterday:  http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/21/tory-eu-referendum-voters-switching-remain-opinium-observer-poll

 

That shows a 4% lead for Remain, but if you scroll down to the bottom section, it says that 67% of Leave voters see the referendum as more important than a General Election (I agree with them), but only 47% of Remain votes say the same.

On that basis, you'd have to expect a higher turnout among Leave supporters than among Remain (particularly if the latter start to see the outcome as a foregone conclusion - they could get a nasty surprise).

 

Interesting, too, that the Remain lead among Tory voters is actually HIGHER than the lead overall. So, either a lot of Tories are starting to switch to UKIP or the Leave vote is very high among Labour voters (both, I suspect).

 

There are still 4-5 weeks to go, and events and campaigning will still affect the outcome - in which direction, who knows? Depends on the nature of the events and the quality of the campaigning, I suppose.

 

I do think that Leave have been crazy to have the whole campaign effectively fronted by Boris, Gove, IDS & other Tory ministers (plus a semi-detached Farage). I appreciate that they haven't got any Labour big names on board, but why aren't they giving a more prominent role to Gisela Stuart, Kate Hoey & other Labour Leave supporters? Or David Owen, for that matter? I appreciate that you're a passionate Leave supporter, Matt, so you'd probably vote entirely on political substance. But just imagine for a minute that the Leave campaign was fronted by Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott (plus a semi-detached Galloway). That's the mirror image - and that would put off a lot of right-wingers, wouldn't it? To be fair to you, you've always seen the need for the Leave campaign to be broad (Right, Centre & Left), but so far it's coming across as largely a campaign for the Right: Thatcherism with a bit of right-wing nationalism thrown in, not emphasising democracy or potential benefits for Labour/Left voters or giving a prominent role to anyone from that side of politics.

 

I'm still hoping for a better-quality debate, but am not holding my breath. Both sides have been terrible - and terribly dishonest and/or lacking in substance in their claims.

Alf I couldn't agree more with this, the leave campaign needs to sit across all parties to hit home.

[Dodgy Bob]

"No ifs, buts or maybe's , we WILL Get immigration down" quote: david cameron.....the man lies on speck..

That's a missed target rather than a lie, and I think what he actually said was that they would "take steps" to get non-eu immigration down, steps which were taken, and non-eu immigration did reduce.

[The Guvnor]

There is a difference between straw polls and people actually bothering to send off a postal vote or getting off their arses to vote. I don't believe Brexit has lost at all, most people who are really passionate about this are the leave voters and I believe they will be out on mass.

 

Incidentally Carolyn Fairbairn was asked some incredibly awkward questions by Andrew Neil as to why the CBI wanted to remain, he said 'I am not surprised the CBI want to stay in the EU, £8 billion in tax returns for large businesses in the UK' per year and it would appear thanks to the ECJ, HMRC can do fook all about it.

[m4DD0gg]

One of my pals is Albanian he is a taxi driver. I didn't realise this but all the immigrants that have moved here over the years can vote. He told me that literally every one in his eastern European community in Northampton (which is huge) are voting to stay.

[Dodgy Bob]

One of my pals is Albanian he is a taxi driver. I didn't realise this but all the immigrants that have moved here over the years can vote. He told me that literally every one in his eastern European community in Northampton (which is huge) are voting to stay.

Eastern Europeans can't vote unless they've become British citizens in which case of course they should be able to vote.

[bovril]

Neither can Western Europeans. Only immigrants from the commonwealth, I believe.

And Albania isn't part of the EU anyway.

So someone along the line is bullshitting.

[johnny the fox]

That's a missed target rather than a lie, and I think what he actually said was that they would "take steps" to get non-eu immigration down, steps which were taken, and non-eu immigration did reduce.

nice spin...