The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[The Year Of The Fox]

I'm not trawling through the 22 pages- but has anyone in the public domain come out with a balanced reasoning for staying/leaving the EU yet?

I'm getting fed up of reading stuff (like Cameron's war comments) that are said purely to suit their own agenda.

Cameron is fairly respectable IMO.

As is Boris.

The public need to see unbiased reasoning with facts and figures that can't be disputed by the oppositions argument. I know we all need that in politics all the time yet we never get it. Personally speaking, I want to vote- I hate not voting. But I want to make an informed choice. As I speak at the moment I go from wanting to leave the EU to adopting a 'better the devil you know' type attitude. It's got to the point where I can't be arsed to pay attention any more and may as well toss a coin at the ballot box on the 23rd June

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

I really don't believe ANY politician; it's just that some are bigger liars than others.

[Strokes]

I'm not trawling through the 22 pages- but has anyone in the public domain come out with a balanced reasoning for staying/leaving the EU yet?

I'm getting fed up of reading stuff (like Cameron's war comments) that are said purely to suit their own agenda.

Cameron is fairly respectable IMO.

As is Boris.

The public need to see unbiased reasoning with facts and figures that can't be disputed by the oppositions argument. I know we all need that in politics all the time yet we never get it. Personally speaking, I want to vote- I hate not voting. But I want to make an informed choice. As I speak at the moment I go from wanting to leave the EU to adopting a 'better the devil you know' type attitude. It's got to the point where I can't be arsed to pay attention any more and may as well toss a coin at the ballot box on the 23rd June

Put rincewind on ignore and that will weed out the thin arguments and whittle it down to 15 pages or so. (I'm only joking Ken ) You won't be able to make an informed choice I'm afraid pal, as nobody has a crystal ball. You can only dissect the EU in its current format and decide if it's something that you/we benefit from enough. It clearly does have benefits and it clearly has negatives, some of them are on the same thing, I.e freedom of movement. The main reason I want out, is the EU doesn't seem to acknowledge the negatives that I feel it has.

[Rincewind]

I really don't believe ANY politician; it's just that some are bigger liars than others.

Lies damned lies and statistics sums them up nicely. They are all as bad as each other.

[Rincewind]

Put rincewind on ignore and that will weed out the thin arguments and whittle it down to 15 pages or so. (I'm only joking Ken ) You won't be able to make an informed choice I'm afraid pal, as nobody has a crystal ball. You can only dissect the EU in its current format and decide if it's something that you/we benefit from enough. It clearly does have benefits and it clearly has negatives, some of them are on the same thing, I.e freedom of movement. The main reason I want out, is the EU doesn't seem to acknowledge the negatives that I feel it has.

I don't think I have posted much in this thread mainly because I do not know and nobody has made an argument to convince me either way.

[The Year Of The Fox]

Put rincewind on ignore and that will weed out the thin arguments and whittle it down to 15 pages or so. (I'm only joking Ken ) You won't be able to make an informed choice I'm afraid pal, as nobody has a crystal ball. You can only dissect the EU in its current format and decide if it's something that you/we benefit from enough. It clearly does have benefits and it clearly has negatives, some of them are on the same thing, I.e freedom of movement. The main reason I want out, is the EU doesn't seem to acknowledge the negatives that I feel it has.

The reason I want out is because I question why all these countries have insinuated they'll not trade with us outside the EU. At the very least they want us all to remain in the EU. The only reason is because there's something in it for them. I'm sure they benefit more from us being in the EU than we ourselves benefit. I'm talking about the smaller countries in particular.

[Rincewind]

whats more worrying is this...... OUR own prime minister is TRYING to scare his own people.... what kind of ****ing statement is that ?

Where have you been the last 6 years? Terrorists, unemployed, shirkers, scroungers have all been on the list as a threat to 'national security'

[Strokes]

The reason I want out is because I question why all these countries have insinuated they'll not trade with us outside the EU. At the very least they want us all to remain in the EU. The only reason is because there's something in it for them. I'm sure they benefit more from us being in the EU than we ourselves benefit. I'm talking about the smaller countries in particular.

Well lots of countries get more spent on them than they contribute, we are not one of those countries, so that will affect some of them. I think we contribute about 10% of the EU budget, so it will be a hefty loss for the project as the new members aren't here for what they can put in.

[The Year Of The Fox]

£80m a day contributed in tax from ourselves I believe?

[DJ Barry Hammond]

@The Year Of The Fox

You could try here...http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/eu-referendum/

If that's a bit meaty for you, I'll try and find the more concise impartial leaflet thingy I found...https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/leave_remain_the_facts_behind_the_claims.pdf

This also looked useful: http://www.bl.uk/britishlibrary/~/media/subjects%20images/government%20publications/pdfs/eu-referendum-guide.pdf

They are all impartial items and if nothing else, the middle one by FullFact is well worth a look.

[Guest MattP]

Gordon Brown on This Morning completely missing the point as usual, he's ranted on about illegal immigration for five minutes, this isn't the concern to when it comes to EU migration.

[The Guvnor]

The EU really is a marmite situation, for me sovereignty, democracy rather than autonomy and border control are the fundamental issues.

[Dodgy Bob]

As someone who needs a job in order to maintain an acceptable standard of living my main concern are:

- will I have the same employee protections outside of the EU. I suspect not, and I'd imagine any change won't be in my favour.

- will the employment market be buoyant enough to provide high employment and above inflation pay rises? Doesn't look like it, things are already slowing down in preparation for the potential of uncertainty, it will slow down even more and for a long time if we leave.

- How will the cost of living be affected? Hard to tell but there's a real prospect of increased costs to cover tariffs. Smaller additional costs for visa's and things if you want to go to Europe. Possible tax rises, likely be stealth, to cover shortfall in public income caused by uncertainty. Quite a few potential downsides, difficult to come up with any positives.

- How will it affect my day to day life and interaction with the community? It won't. Nothing in my day to day life will change.

[Guest MattP]

Last three polls give leave a slight lead. (With Status quo voters I think we still need 3%-4% lead going into polling day, although that again could be offset by "shy leavers")

 

It's going to be close in the all the way and it will probably come to who can get the vote out come the day, I think that works in our favour as people who are passionate about something and more likely to vote and barely anyone seems to be passionate about staying in, just offering an argument that it's shit but it's better than a leap in the dark.

 

Six months ago I would have settled for this being close (within 55%-45%) just so the issue wasn't dead and buried politically, now I genuinely think we can win this and achieve British independence again.

[wurmer]

I'm sick of the negative campaigning and inaccurate (false) positives when they do actually get reported.

 

Cameron has been particularly pathetic in this whole thing, with the scaremongering and with the 'new deal' that is likely to get veto'd by key members of the EU after the vote anyways - we are being conned. Does anyone seriously think that they've honour what has been agreed once we get a 'stay' vote. What he managed to get out of them was pretty crappy anyways.

[Alf Bentley]

Last three polls give leave a slight lead. (With Status quo voters I think we still need 3%-4% lead going into polling day, although that again could be offset by "shy leavers")

 

It's going to be close in the all the way and it will probably come to who can get the vote out come the day, I think that works in our favour as people who are passionate about something and more likely to vote and barely anyone seems to be passionate about staying in, just offering an argument that it's shit but it's better than a leap in the dark.

 

Six months ago I would have settled for this being close (within 55%-45%) just so the issue wasn't dead and buried politically, now I genuinely think we can win this and achieve British independence again.

 

 

Differential turnout by age could be a major factor, too. 

 

At the General Election, turnout among those aged 65+ was about 76%. Among under-25s, it was about 42% (approx. figures).

 

Previous polls have suggested that older people were much more likely to vote "Leave" and younger people much more likely to vote "Remain". If there's a big disparity in turnout by age, that could well tilt the result in favour of "Leave".

 

Like you, I'm expecting this to be very close and a "Leave" vote seems quite likely to me. Many people no longer have the trust in "the governing class" that would generate a big late swing to "Remain", based on the "better the devil you know" principle.

I reckon a lot of people are dissatisfied with life, politics, society, the governing class....and are ready to lash out against the status quo and unaccountable authorities, seeing the EU as part of that.

 

I'm tending "Remain", but still not fully decided. It's going to be interesting times either way - I just hope that the times are interesting in a positive way, not a scary or disastrous way (what an old wuss I sound these days!  ) 

[The Guvnor]

From 2012 I doubt if anything has changed, an interesting read.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/21/eu-budget-battle-brussels

[Guest MattP]

Differential turnout by age could be a major factor, too. 

 

At the General Election, turnout among those aged 65+ was about 76%. Among under-25s, it was about 42% (approx. figures).

 

Previous polls have suggested that older people were much more likely to vote "Leave" and younger people much more likely to vote "Remain". If there's a big disparity in turnout by age, that could well tilt the result in favour of "Leave".

 

Like you, I'm expecting this to be very close and a "Leave" vote seems quite likely to me. Many people no longer have the trust in "the governing class" that would generate a big late swing to "Remain", based on the "better the devil you know" principle.

I reckon a lot of people are dissatisfied with life, politics, society, the governing class....and are ready to lash out against the status quo and unaccountable authorities, seeing the EU as part of that.

 

I'm tending "Remain", but still not fully decided. It's going to be interesting times either way - I just hope that the times are interesting in a positive way, not a scary or disastrous way (what an old wuss I sound these days!  ) 

 

That didn't actually even occur to me regarding age, if the turnout mirrors the General Election regarding age I think "leave" will have it wrapped up given the difference of opinion between the young and pensioners on the European Union.

 

I still think as with any election we'll have a huge "SQ" effect, people just don't naturally have the balls to go in a different direction and the scare stories will increase, it wouldn't surprise me to see similar stuff to the Scottish Ref where we ended up having businesses publicly announce that they'll leave and trying to write people's P45's before it's happened.

 

I don't see anything scary or disastrous happening, the vast majority of places aren't in the EU, the skies haven't caved in on Switzerland and Norway and we should be in a stronger position than them.

 

Of course the EU could try and make things very difficult for us (and themselves) if they wanted too, but if that was the case it would baffle me why anyone would to be part of it anyway.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Interesting developments from the two leave camps. Farage gets an audience with Cameron on ITV and the other Leave side is on about going to court to stop him.

I sense it's this sort of stuff combined with an inconsistent message that might cost the leave side when it comes to this referendum - but naturally if the result is close that won't put the genie back in the bottle on the matter.

[Alf Bentley]

Gordon Brown weighs in on the Remain side: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/11/gordon-brown-enters-eu-debate-appeal-to-labour-voters

 

It's good to see a significant Labour contribution on EITHER side of the debate. I'd like to see some significant contributions from Leftists on the Leave side, too. 

 

I'm a big fan of Alan Johnson and I know that maverick MPs like Kate Hoey & Gisela Stuart are active on the Leave side, but most of the debate still seems to be taking place purely on the Right: Cameron, Osborne & Big Business v. Boris, Farage, IDS & Gove. 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Gordon Brown weighs in on the Remain side: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/11/gordon-brown-enters-eu-debate-appeal-to-labour-voters

 

It's good to see a significant Labour contribution on EITHER side of the debate. I'd like to see some significant contributions from Leftists on the Leave side, too. 

 

I'm a big fan of Alan Johnson and I know that maverick MPs like Kate Hoey & Gisela Stuart are active on the Leave side, but most of the debate still seems to be taking place purely on the Right: Cameron, Osborne & Big Business v. Boris, Farage, IDS & Gove.

Given what happened to Labour following the Scottish referendum, I'm not sure the main party figures will get that involved in what is essentially a Tory fight.

True, that's not to say there are not views within the Labour Party on both sides of the argument, but I don't think it was ever a priority issue for the party and the last thing it needs is to be seen cosying up to the Tories again - that's no doubt why the main contributions for Remain have been from figures more removed from the party these days (and interestingly leading figures of the Blairite era).

[Webbo]

Given what happened to Labour following the Scottish referendum, I'm not sure the main party figures will get that involved in what is essentially a Tory fight.

 

It's about the most important vote in a generation. It's a national debate about who runs this country. If Labour don't have an opinion on that what's the point of them?

[DJ Barry Hammond]

It's about the most important vote in a generation. It's a national debate about who runs this country. If Labour don't have an opinion on that what's the point of them?

I think the main overriding opinion in Labour is that they wouldn't be having this debate at this time - we've been in the EU for 40+ years and it wasn't a big issue for people for the majority of this time, so what's changed?

But for me, even more key to their seemingly largely non-position is the realisation of how dangerous it would be to get too closely involved in this - what ever decision is taken by the British people, there will be some sort of fallout straight after, there will be lots of difficult decisions that will upset a large portion of the population - so for a party that aims to govern it is quite important to be able to distance itself from this whole affair, otherwise the party may not survive at all.

[Webbo]

I think the main overriding opinion in Labour is that they wouldn't be having this debate at this time - we've been in the EU for 40+ years and it wasn't a big issue for people for the majority of this time, so what's changed?

But for me, even more key to their seemingly largely non-position is the realisation of how dangerous it would be to get too closely involved in this - what ever decision is taken by the British people, there will be some sort of fallout straight after, there will be lots of difficult decisions that will upset a large portion of the population - so for a party that aims to govern it is quite important to be able to distance itself from this whole affair, otherwise the party may not survive at all.

The fact that UKIP won 4 million votes in the last general election , they won the last European election and the polls are putting leave in the mid 40% means it's important to a lot of people.

 

I'm not denying it's good politics to stand back and let the tories tear into each other but  a party that seeks to lead the country ought to be more vocal on such an important issue.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

It is far more important for Labour (and the country to some degree) to have a party full stop, than to pick sides on this debate and put themselves in a position of being wiped out.