The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

[Jon the Hat]

Forget what politicians have to say, they are mostly self interested anyway.  Ask yourself a few fundamental questions with this in mind: 

 

Follow the Money

1) Will the EU "punish" Britain by imposing tariffs and blocking trade should Britain vote leave?  It will cost them a lot of money to do so, as Britain would be their biggest export market (assuming to take the EU as a block)  Would Merkel in fact punish BMW, Mercedes, VW, Audi for example by forcing us to impose tariffs on their cars?  Of course not, they wont pay to punish us.

2) Will it take a long time to agree free trade deals with the US, India, Australia, China etc?  For this one you need to think about who benefits, and the answer is both sides.  There is no reason to think it would take us more than a couple of years to agree bilateral trade deals with major nations, and in the meantime we can trade under the same terms as the EU without any difficulty.

3) Will there be some short term uncertainty?  Yes of course, this hasn't been done before, but lets not pretend this is some insurmountable challenge.  Britain has faced a lot worse.

Security

1) Will we increase the risk of war within Europe?  Very unlikely.  We will remain in NATO, which has been a far greater source of stability than the EU.  The EU likely incited the civil war raging in Ukraine with its political posturing towards Ukraine joining the EU, a move always going to incite some Russian response.  Imagine Ireland deciding to join a Russian led political union.  Edit:  Also, Cameron called this referendum, and indeed said he would support leave if he couldn't get the reform he wanted.  Is he now telling us he would risk war over minor benefit changes??

2) Will we stop having access to intelligence data?  Very unlikely.  The agreements which give us this shared information are nothing to do with the EU, and indeed the EU restricts our ability to share information with non EU nations including the US.  Which cant be good surely?

3) Do we want to be part of an EU army?  What would be the point when we already have NATO?

Isolationism

1) The UK will become inward looking and miss out on being part of Europe!  Stop conflating Europe and the EU.  There is little relationship between the two.  We have no land borders, no single currency no single language, yet we engage in our millions with our European brothers and sisters, and long may that continue.  We can and will continue to see talented wonderful immigrants into the UK, but not just from Europe, from all over the world on a fair and even basis.  Surely the basis for more international integration not less?

2) Vote leave are all juyst racists!  Really we are not (colours to mast and all that.)  My objections to the EU are as a political construct.  I love Europe, and free trade, and I would like to see more of both, but not at the price of signing up to bureaucratic, integrationist agenda which I don't believe can succeed or indeed is desirable.  We can and will do more from the outside.  The only question is whether that is now or in 20 years after we are forced to sign up to the Euro and European financial control or leave.  To join the EU army or leave.  To exit all no EU agreements or leave.  That is the intention of those running the EU, and they make no secret of it.  Time to move onwards and upwards!

[sylofox]

Not a Tory Labour thread just a rant.

Mr Cameron how dare you say an out vote could result in war.

My dad like many others fought for our freedom.

For our country and every other to make their own laws and rules.

Not to be governed by others.

Have some respect to them and us don't offer up bollox to scare people to vote the way you want.

Remember you offered this vote to get in power.

Respect your people and shut the fvck up.

[StanSP]

*disrespectful

[Webbo]

We weren't in the Common Market in the 50s and 60s and yet strangely we weren't fighting other European Countries then. Ridiculous thing to say.

[Stadt]

direspectable lol

 

 

 

 

In all seriousness that's a load of shit and he should go but every other key Tory figure is awful as well

[Vicki Vixen]

Good job we have invested so much in Trident.

[AKCJ]

Ridiculous thing to say but we should stay in anyway.

[Trav Le Bleu]

Phew, for a second I thought this was directed at me!

[Dodgy Bob]

Don't think he actually said that Britain leaving the EU could result in a war. From what I've read all he said was that Europe isn't guaranteed not to find itself facing war at some point in the future, and that in such a situation we'd be better off inside the EU where we could do something about before it was too late.

I don't think it's a particularly strong point, but there's nothing disrespectful about it and it has been taken well out of context by his detractors.

Could equally argue some of the Brexit campaigners who have used things like the British Empire and industrial revolution to show how great Britain is are being disrespectful, considering how many people were killed through the British Empire and how awful worker's conditions were and how many of them died during the industrial revolution.

[Strokes]

Cameron's trolling, I swear the guys been doing it since the GE.

[Buce]

Cameron's trolling, I swear the guys been doing it since the GE.

Has anyone ever seen him and Moose in the same room?

Just a thought.

[bovril]

Did he actually say that? Or are words being twisted in order to wind everyone up in an frenzied clickbait orgy?

[bovril]

Seriously so tired of this faux-offence that seems to have replaced critical thinking and discussion in the UK. It's like we've morphed into a bunch of shrieking women on the rag. Probably someone will kick off now I've written that as well.

[Izzy]

Seriously so tired of this faux-offence that seems to have replaced critical thinking and discussion in the UK. It's like we've morphed into a bunch of shrieking women on the rag. Probably someone will kick off now I've written that as well.

 

[Alf Bentley]

Couldn't this thread be merged into the EU Referendum thread?

 

 

This clearly is a scare tactic from Cameron and a "Leave" vote clearly wouldn't make a European war imminent.

 

However, there is some substance to the "greater risk of war" argument. But that risk is a bit more indirect and less inevitable than scare merchants might suggest.

 

Aside from democracy and other issues, part of the "Leave" argument is that the UK could prosper by leaving and competing successfully with the remaining EU nations, while maintaining cooperative, cordial relations with them. If there was give and take on both sides, and if the global economy remained steady so that everyone continued to prosper, I can imagine that working quite nicely.

 

But there are several "ifs" in there. If one side or the other (UK or EU) started to prosper at the expense of the other, that would inevitably fuel tensions - particularly if such success was perceived as being achieved through unfair means (e.g. UK undercutting European labour/social standards, EU erecting barriers to UK exports). Plus, if we're saying it's OK for the UK to pursue its own national interest in this way, presumably we're saying that it would be OK for other EU nations to do likewise?

 

Then there's the "if" of the global economy. In the 1930s, the global economic crisis was a major factor in the rise of extreme versions of nationalism (Nazis etc.) and the outbreak of war. If there was another crisis like 2008 in a world in which nations were concentrating more on national self-interest than on finding collective, continental and global solutions, wouldn't that increase the risk of conflict? Admittedly, there are other economic/financial institutions that exist to tackle such crises at a global level (G7, IMF, World Bank, OECD, whatever), but would they succeed in such a tense environment of conflict?

 

Then there is the need to have a strong, united voice in negotiations with external powers such as Russia. The point is made that NATO is more significant than the EU here. Fair point to an extent, but without a strong European voice at some level, that leaves us awfully dependent on the USA - a country that could quite easily opt for isolationism, withdrawing from the arena to varying degrees (Obama has been accused of this - and Trump would clearly be very isolationist in pursuit of US interests). The US could also opt to assert its national interests more in Europe, if it felt that Europe wasn't pulling its weight (a common American complaint already - at a time when the US dominates NATO military spending and only the UK and France really make a significant contribution).

[Alf Bentley]

In the context of migration issues, some repeatedly - and incorrectly - say the UK has "no land border with the EU".

 

We do have a land border: Northern Ireland / Republic of Ireland.

 

Interesting articles here re. Irish anxieties about the consequences of the UK leaving the EU. The UK is a massively important trading partner to Ireland - and Ireland is also one of our largest trading partners (on a par with France or Holland). But also, Ireland - and Northern Ireland - get a lot of financial benefits from EU membership (farming support, development aid etc). 

 

There are multiple risks of disruption to the Northern Irish peace process if anything important is mishandled here. However, I do think the talk of illicit migrant flows across the Irish border is a scare tactic. If that's a serious risk, why is it not happening already, when the border is pretty open?

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/09/brexit-irish-border-new-calais-eu-commissioner-phil-hogan

 

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-the-day-after-what-would-it-be-like-1.2638295

"The [irish] EU commissioner for agriculture, Phil Hogan, said [...] that if the UK left the EU “this would not be business as usual” on the frontier".

[Rincewind]

If staying in is safer why has billions of tax payers money been spent  on Trident?

The more he speaks against leaving the more I will be inclined to vote to leave.

[Jon the Hat]

New Calais?  Ireland joining Schengen then is it?  Really bored of the scare tactics of Remain.  They seem to have so little positive say.  We are a brilliant country and would be fine in or out.

[Christoph]

Think I'm gonna go with my gut and vote to leave. Something just feels right about it now.

[Alf Bentley]

New Calais?  Ireland joining Schengen then is it?  Really bored of the scare tactics of Remain.  

 

 

Yes, as I said, that bit sounds like scare tactics.

 

There could be various UK/Ireland complications of a Brexit, as discussed above and in articles linked, but that one about Dundalk becoming the new Calais sounds like bollocks.

 

The Eire/Northern Ireland border is pretty open - and it would be easy enough for people to travel from Dublin to Holyhead/Liverpool by ferry, for that matter.

But, as Ireland isn't in Schengen either, I presume there must be stringent passport controls for people taking ferries from France to Ireland etc. Otherwise, migrants would already be taking the Cherbourg-Rosslare-Dundalk-Belfast-Britain route, surely?!

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Forget what politicians have to say, they are mostly self interested anyway. Ask yourself a few fundamental questions with this in mind:

Follow the Money

1) Will the EU "punish" Britain by imposing tariffs and blocking trade should Britain vote leave? It will cost them a lot of money to do so, as Britain would be their biggest export market (assuming to take the EU as a block) Would Merkel in fact punish BMW, Mercedes, VW, Audi for example by forcing us to impose tariffs on their cars? Of course not, they wont pay to punish us.

Tariffs don't necessarily punish the producers of products if their product is in demand, as they can simply add on the Tariff to the price - so there could be an argument to say what would in fact happen if tariffs are imposed is that these costs would be passed onto the consumer and not drastically effect the profits of the German car makers.

It should also be consider that Britain exports a fair amount of cars itself - so some European car manufactures may feel it's in their interests to impose tariffs both ways because although their exports to the UK will be more expensive, the same would be said of UK cars coming in, giving them a protectionist advantage within the remaining member states that could offset the loss in the UK market.

2) Will it take a long time to agree free trade deals with the US, India, Australia, China etc? For this one you need to think about who benefits, and the answer is both sides. There is no reason to think it would take us more than a couple of years to agree bilateral trade deals with major nations, and in the meantime we can trade under the same terms as the EU without any difficulty.

Hopefully what my response to 1 has shown is trade deals between countries are never simple to complete, even if there is mutual interest because there are so many details to consider. The above point is very blue sky thinking that disregards all evidence before it that shows the time and scale of negotiating a trade deal.

One of the initial issues would be to establish a team of UK trade negotiators and arrange meetings with conterparts for these countries and of course the more you look to take part in the thinner you spread yourself.

Then we as a country would need to dicide on what sort of deal we'd want with these countries - a Free Trade deal, with protectionist principles for consumers, or an al a carte style trade deal where agreements are made on some items and maintained on others (to industry within) - so for example the UK might decide to maintain tariffs on steel from China to protect its home based industry.

Trade is all about balance. To the paint the picture that everyone benefits is a fallacy, because a country doesn't benefit from a bad trade deal and so each will naturally need to take time to consider how it wishes to benefit - and if we wish to rush to completion with any deal that could be to our determent.

3) Will there be some short term uncertainty? Yes of course, this hasn't been done before, but lets not pretend this is some insurmountable challenge. Britain has faced a lot worse.

This is something that is very easy to say, but would not be as easy to live in if you're already struggling with the cost of living or your job has a link to the EU. It should be remembered the government is still pushing an agenda of austerity, the UK still has a sizeable and growing debt and growth has been flickering over the last couple of quarters.

I think most would agree that in the event of a vote to Brexit the market would react with a degree of shock - there would be a degree of uncertainty around everything from what sort of deal we look for from the EU, to what the future of the PM would be (he could be under great pressure to resign) and possibly even the future of the UK itself.

And so the thing with uncertainty (something the Brexit camp have to contend with) is nobody knows how long that would last for and what sort of drag that may have on the economy, but it's pretty certain if there is any pain to contend with, it will be those least available to sustain it that will feel it the most.

In terms of the other arguments, i think you were correct in that there's not much in them either way - but one final positive argument I would put forward is that the EU exists to raise standards and opportunity for all as employees, as consumers, as its citizens - and if that's not a common goal that we can share for the greater good, we might as well all give up now. There is no reason why Great Britian can't be great within the EU.

[Guest MattP]

Cameron is getting so desperate now it's becoming a little embarrassing, the fear tactics aren't scaring anyway.

NATO and democracy is the biggest preventer of war, if anything the EU is causing more resentment across the continent instead of bringing people together.

Whether we vote to leave or not it's a finished project, there is no future for an organisation that such a substantial amount of people want to see finished.

It's just when it goes rather than if.

[Strokes]

Cameron is getting so desperate now it's becoming a little embarrassing, the fear tactics aren't scaring anyway.

NATO and democracy is the biggest preventer of war, if anything the EU is causing more resentment across the continent instead of bringing people together.

Whether we vote to leave or not it's a finished project, there is no future for an organisation that such a substantial amount of people want to see finished.

It's just when it goes rather than if.

Exactly, I think if we pull out you will see a domino effect. Its popularity is in decline and we are better off as far away as possible when it blows. Then work on a true common market, that includes nations outside of Europe could be born.

[Guest MattP]

Ian Duncan Smith is now making the argument for leaving the EU that many in the Labour party should be.

 

The effect on the lower paid mass unskilled migration causes and the social injustice that has happened across the continent because of the project.

[JadeFalcon]

whats more worrying is this...... OUR own prime minister is TRYING to scare his own people.... what kind of ****ing statement is that ?