ImBlue Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 No, it's not. Most people aren't Lamby, they don't throw money at the longest odds thinking only of the biggest return - most will instead go with reasonably short odds looking to make a quid or two at a time, so understating the odds slightly while making them still look normal will draw a lot of business from these sorts of people. It's roughly the same sort of track that sees cars marked at £4,999 rather than £5,000; the first one looks like a good deal, better than the latter, but it's really not - you're not gaining anything from it. Similarly pricing something at 6/5 rather than 11/5 makes it look a bit more likely, like a slightly better deal - making us more prone to go for it. But, putting all discussion of actual odds distribution aside (because it's quite clear you don't understand basic psychology), should bournemouth have been favourites? No, because we're slightly better than them and massively in form - they're us a year ago, and in the form we're in, the most likely result pre-match would have been a narrow leicester win, with a strong chance of a draw. 11/5 looks better than 6/5 to me. I bet on winners, not odds. And Bournemouth were rightly favourites, have been superb against West Ham and Liverpool away (where they were robbed!) and turned in a nervous, but good performance against villa that they shouldn't have lost. We have more points but they have been equally as impressive and were at home. Rightly favourites, and good result for LCFC. Plenty of teams will lose there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viva Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 No, it's not. Most people aren't Lamby, they don't throw money at the longest odds thinking only of the biggest return - most will instead go with reasonably short odds looking to make a quid or two at a time, so understating the odds slightly while making them still look normal will draw a lot of business from these sorts of people. It's roughly the same sort of track that sees cars marked at £4,999 rather than £5,000; the first one looks like a good deal, better than the latter, but it's really not - you're not gaining anything from it. Similarly pricing something at 6/5 rather than 11/5 makes it look a bit more likely, like a slightly better deal - making us more prone to go for it. But, putting all discussion of actual odds distribution aside (because it's quite clear you don't understand basic psychology), should bournemouth have been favourites? No, because we're slightly better than them and massively in form - they're us a year ago, and in the form we're in, the most likely result pre-match would have been a narrow leicester win, with a strong chance of a draw. Oh I understand about betting don't you worry about that. I work in the betting industry you plank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Doctor Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 Oh I understand about betting don't you worry about that. I work in the betting industry you plank! In which case you should probably know the aim of the game is to make money. But, going back to the original point - were they favourites? with the bookies perhaps, but that's because bookies look to make money, but they wouldn't have been favourites if you look at the stats - we're slightly better, we're well in form and home advantage doesn't mean that much; we would have been slight favourites. No disrespect to bournemouth, they're not that bad but we're still better than them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImBlue Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 Home advantage doesn't mean much? Doctor, you're embarrassing yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viva Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 In which case you should probably know the aim of the game is to make money. But, going back to the original point - were they favourites? with the bookies perhaps, but that's because bookies look to make money, but they wouldn't have been favourites if you look at the stats - we're slightly better, we're well in form and home advantage doesn't mean that much; we would have been slight favourites. No disrespect to bournemouth, they're not that bad but we're still better than them. You just don't get it do you! If a bookie wanted a lot of people to bet on Bournemouth, they would raise the price above their competitors. For example if Ladbrokes, Hills and Coral were 6/5, but Paddy Power thought there is no way Bournemouth are winning, they would raise their price to say 5/4 or even higher. Therefore anyone wanting to bet on Bournemouth would use them instead of their rivals as they would win more. Your logic of people preferring to back a team at a lower price is just wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacnah Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 That shocking that we got a point away against a team that was clear favourites to beat us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Doctor Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 You just don't get it do you! If a bookie wanted a lot of people to bet on Bournemouth, they would raise the price above their competitors. For example if Ladbrokes, Hills and Coral were 6/5, but Paddy Power thought there is no way Bournemouth are winning, they would raise their price to say 5/4 or even higher. Therefore anyone wanting to bet on Bournemouth would use them instead of their rivals as they would win more. Your logic of people preferring to back a team at a lower price is just wrong. People are more likely to take a punt on what seems lower risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zapp Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 Oh I understand about betting don't you worry about that. I work in the betting industry you plank! do you work behind the counter at your local coral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Col city fan Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 Spot on, We just have to accept, hell of alot of Scandinavian undesirables have escaped into Britain creating all this negative Trolling. 4 games with positive points, and the ghouls trying to negate our positive start, just love to peck like old hens. I dont know how you feel 'Col' but I hope Ranieri makes changes and trys the different players out. He has been proven right so far, because even Mahrez, King, DD have had indifferent games.We need to know now and not in the bread and butter part of the season, how many of the squad are upto taking us deep into the season showing improved class and quality. INLAR + KANTE are going to play a major part in any success we have chasing down the hard points, the selections in the 1st 2 games even with success was obviously not the end solution/choices. Mate..It doesn't matter. Inler, Kante, Kram,...whomever. This is the Premier League. Balls to anyone who says that the Prem league isn't 'all that'. They are wrong. It's tough. It's fast. It's all action. It's unpredictable. You don't get your Real Madrids and your Barce's waltzing the division. Instead..you get your Palaces and your West Hams upsetting things. You get anomalies..you get freak results. For City to have sacked Pearson, who basically built this squad, and for us to be sitting 3rd after 4 games is a fantastic achievement. Let me reiterate..its a fantastic achievement. Just read thru this sometimes nonsense of a forum (let's face it..It is) even in the pre-season to see how many people had given us not a cat in Hell's chance. The usual suspects had us as relegated. As doomed. Even before we had kicked a ball. What we have seen, so far, is some quality, some resilience, lots of goals, some signings (how many said we'd sign no-one any good) AND superb interviews from Ranieri. I'm with him...today I'd have gone with his selection. Bournemouth are no mugs (despite, again, many slagging off Howe). For anyone who cares to see it, today is a GOOD result. It means we haven't lost, that we maintain our good run and our position in the league. So far, I'm overjoyed with Ranieri..He's been a breath of fresh air at a time we could have really suffered. Long may it continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viva Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 I don't get what your point is? The original poster was saying about Ranieri's shocking tactics. I replied sarcastically about it obviously being shocking because we got a point away against a more fancied rival. Simple really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viva Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 People are more likely to take a punt on what seems lower risk. Just answer me this then. Do you take 6/5 in one shop, or walk next door and take 6/4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viva Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 do you work behind the counter at your local coral No. I'd love seeing mugs like The Doctor every day though if I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez of Mahrez Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 I would have liked to have seen Mahrez play behind Vardy from the start today and wingers who can defend. Surrender midfield and play on the counter. I think that should be our tactic for all away games. One wing is too open defensively with Mahrez playing out wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Doctor Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 Just answer me this then. Do you take 6/5 in one shop, or walk next door and take 6/4? Depends on the match in question and how likely it actually is - if we're talking a very likely result, like say Swansea winning at home to Watford, then I'd take the 6/4 because it's one I'd back to start with. The difference there is a bit off, I'm talking more 6/5 against 11/5 rather than the tiny, near irrelevant gap between those - I'd be more tempted to bet on a 6/5 than a 11/5, because the 6/5 seems more likely - even if it actually isn't (say us beating West Brom at home against Everton winning away to Sunderland). But, to make my point - you've got two choices - one is two boxes, one of which contains a tenner, the other is twenty boxes, one of which contains 100 quid - 1 pound buys you the selection. Do you go for the low risk tenner or chance the hundred? Besides, all this is irrelevant to that this is not a game where we were second favourites, this is a game we should have very real expectations of winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Socks Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 I dont thinks its Ranieris fault... just shows we have players who cannot perform constantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImBlue Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 No. I'd love seeing mugs like The Doctor every day though if I did.id get someone to keep an eye out for him and change all my 11/5 prices to 6/5 when I seen him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seenitall Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 Poor attacking first half but essentially keeping them to one (amazingly taken) goal was good, their peckers being up after last week. Second half they looked poor and we looked the ones most likely to take the three points - good management, been a long time coming at King Power after the largely clueless shite we have been served up past three years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Socks Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 Everyones wanking over Mahrez and he was shite today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viva Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 Depends on the match in question and how likely it actually is - if we're talking a very likely result, like say Swansea winning at home to Watford, then I'd take the 6/4 because it's one I'd back to start with. The difference there is a bit off, I'm talking more 6/5 against 11/5 rather than the tiny, near irrelevant gap between those - I'd be more tempted to bet on a 6/5 than a 11/5, because the 6/5 seems more likely - even if it actually isn't (say us beating West Brom at home against Everton winning away to Sunderland). But, to make my point - you've got two choices - one is two boxes, one of which contains a tenner, the other is twenty boxes, one of which contains 100 quid - 1 pound buys you the selection. Do you go for the low risk tenner or chance the hundred? Besides, all this is irrelevant to that this is not a game where we were second favourites, this is a game we should have very real expectations of winning. Ok this is the last lesson in betting I will be giving today! I feel like i'm trying to explain to a 10 year old! Forget about comparing other matches, i'm just talking about Bournemouth v Leicester. You have two bookies next to each other, one is offering 6/5, one is offering 6/4. Which one do you place your money with? If the answer is B, 6/4, then you now understand what bookies would do if they really wanted people to back Bournemouth. They would make their price higher and therefore more attractive to bet on. Your logic is that a person knows nothing about football and just think I want to bet on a match, right well I don't care who it is but i'm going to back the fav because they must have more of a chance of winning. Most punters don't think like that and at least have some knowledge about the match they are betting on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Izzy Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 I started reading this thread to join a debate about Ranieris tactics and left if being a betting expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Doctor Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 Ok this is the last lesson in betting I will be giving today! I feel like i'm trying to explain to a 10 year old! Forget about comparing other matches, i'm just talking about Bournemouth v Leicester. You have two bookies next to each other, one is offering 6/5, one is offering 6/4. Which one do you place your money with? If the answer is B, 6/4, then you now understand what bookies would do if they really wanted people to back Bournemouth. They would make their price higher and therefore more attractive to bet on. Your logic is that a person knows nothing about football and just think I want to bet on a match, right well I don't care who it is but i'm going to back the fav because they must have more of a chance of winning. Most punters don't think like that and at least have some knowledge about the match they are betting on. As I said, it depends on the match in question, if it's a good outcome the longer, but I'd be backing it anyway, which means nothing - the point is in attracting the casual betters, who pick individual games based on the odds rather than going for one game and looking for the best odds. And a lot of betters will be ones looking for a low risk return. Edit: the mistake you're making is thinking most people are saying "I reckon that West Brom will beat Newcastle this weekend, where can I get the best odds" rather than "I fancy a couple of bets on the rugby world cup to make it that bit more interesting, what looks like a sensible bet". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Socks Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 I started reading this thread to join a debate about Ranieris tactics and left if being a betting expert. Pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st albans fox Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 Everyones wanking over Mahrez and he was shite today... Apparently picked up a knock in the first challenge by gradel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Socks Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 Apparently picked up a knock in the first challenge by gradel. Season over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tielemans63 Posted 29 August 2015 Share Posted 29 August 2015 We were a bit crap today but if you can get a point when you've been shite then that's a good sign. However, it's worth noting that Bournemouth were extremely comfortable until they lost not one but two LBs. Had they not been forced into those particular subs then I'm sure they'd have made changes to frustrate us further. Hope CR has the good sense to return to a more attacking system v Villa as we are hopeless at the containing game. Preferably with the 3-5-2 that served us brilliantly last season but that has been strangely under-utilised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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