How many points will it take?

[Les-TA-Jon]

Even 80 is high.  As if we went 10-3-2, it would mean that anyone below us would need to go 11-3-1 to better us.  As good as Arsenal and Man City can be on the day, neither of them are going to do that between now and the end of the season.

 

Arsenal have to go away at Spurs, Man Utd, Everton, West Ham, Man City.  You would imagine that there are one or two defeats in there and maybe a draw or two also.

 

Man City have to go away to Liverpool, Chelsea, Southampton as well as a couple of tough home games in Arsenal, Man Utd, Stoke and Spurs.  Quite a few dropped points there also, thats assuming they dont drop any in the so called easier games.

 

Like I said, in my opinion if any team gets to 80, they will win it.  But the required total is highly likely to be less.  I wouldn't be surprised if 75 or 76 points won it this time round.

 

Yep. I didn't mean it was a bad thing. Look at my tables above. Clearly us being in Top spot puts us in the best position. This thread makes it clear that our position is great, from a statistical standpoint. Where we are likely to fall down (if we do) is mentally - in terms of choking etc etc

[FireFox]

Let's just go 15-0-0

Or maybe one draw. Or two if against Man City and Arsenal (assuming Spurs don't win all their games).

[ramboacdc]

Yep. We've got 47 points. 45 to play for. So that's 22 required to get to the average of 69. So 23 'droppable'. 

Here's a comparison to the chasing pack:

 

 

Red obviously denotes an impossible points total. 

 

we weill need this every monday morning after they have all played from now on! loving this! 

[RedSoxUK]

Approx 78 - 82 should get 1st place this season, unless Man City want to win the next 15 games.

 

In all honesty I think just over 60 should be enough for 4th place. It's happened before, the year we were relegated Liverpool finished 4th with 60... and 57 would have gotten 4th place that season. A quick google from that year shows what that table looked like compared to now. After 23 games then: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2003-2004/table/2004-01-31

5th, 6th, and 7th all on 34 points. Right now 5th, 6th and 7th have 37, 36 and 34.

 

We expect Manchester United and Liverpool to be more consistent to what they've been performing, that could ultimately determine whether we finish inside the top 4. We can only do so much ourselves, but it really does come down to what other teams are allowing us to achieve by shooting themselves in the foot, the same way Liverpool getting 4th with 60 points in 2003-2004 because of mediocrity.

 

63 - 65 should cover 4th place.

The maximum a team has gotten finishing 4th was also Liverpool who took 76 points.

 

 

We need at least another 30-33 points to challenge for 1st place depending on how many points the others drop. The same tally could there abouts get Chelsea 4th place this season... It's a massive task.

[MakingEmileOfIt]

Let's be on the safe side and win all 15.

[ramboacdc]

lets use this stat:

 

teams top at end of January

14/15 chelsea finished 1st

13/14 man c finished 1st

12/13 man u finished first

11/12 man c finished 1st

09/10 chelsea finished 1st

08/09 man u finished 1st

06/07 man u finished 1st

05/06 chelsea finished 1st

04/05 chelsea finished 1st

[weller54]

lets use this stat:

teams top at end of January

14/15 chelsea finished 1st

13/14 man c finished 1st

12/13 man u finished first

11/12 man c finished 1st

09/10 chelsea finished 1st

08/09 man u finished 1st

06/07 man u finished 1st

05/06 chelsea finished 1st

04/05 chelsea finished 1st

That's fvcked it then!!

[Manwell Pablo]

Thought it'd be worth while have a thread to look at how many points it'll take to either win the League or qualify for the Champions League.

 

A quick look at the last 3 years shows;

14/15 - 87 points won the league. 70 was enough for 4th qualifying for the Champions League playoffs (6 points ahead of Spurs 5th)

13/14 - 86 points won the league. 79 took 4th place (7 points ahead of Everton in 5th)

12/13 - 89 points won the league. 73 points 4th place (1 point ahead of Spurs in 5th)

 

History suggests we need at least 70 points to qualify for the Champions League and in excess of 85 to win the league (that's not taking into account the strangeness of the results this year. Maybe less than 85 will win the league and less than 70 be enough for 4th but history suggests otherwise)

 

So...

 

 

We have 15 games remaining; 8 at Home, 7 Away.

 

Current points total = 47.

 

Premier League Title first, would require another 38 points (if we take 85 points as the winning total).

 

38 points from 15 games is achievable but a bit of a stretch.

 

 

Champions League (4th place), history shows over 70 points, but I think 70 will be enough this year because of the way others are performing.

 

Therefore 23 points from 15 games - would require 7 wins and 3 draw or 8 wins

 

I think 8 wins from 15 games is achievable. Basically win all our home games

 

 

Thoughts

 

 

Has anyone else looked at what it'll take? Surely someone must have some spreadsheet skills we could use to look at what total we will need. I was going to look at the games others have to play and if they have to play each other - Our threats to the title are obviously Arsenal, Man City and Spurs; threat to 4th Man U, West Ham, Liverpool anyone else?

 

Pointless looking at points really the amount you need can alter so much. Especially at 4th, while Chelsea are still in the Champions League it is still possible that could get us nothing but a Europa League place

[ramboacdc]

That's fvcked it then!!

lets use another

claudio's seasons in premier league

1st season (Chelsea) 4th

2nd season (Chelsea)3rd

3rd season (Chelsea)2nd

4th season (Leicester) ?...

[Captain...]

 

Looking at the last 3 seasons the average PPG  over  the last 15 games for the champions has been 2.2 pts per game, if we take that as the base then it would put Arsenal and Man City maintaining champions form of 2.2 per game on 77 points, meaning we would need 30 points to match that.

 

But if we look at the changes in form over that period most teams at the top drop off slightly, so it would require Arsenal/City to increase their current ppg by 15% to  get  to 2.2 ppg. Seeing the way this season is going that will be harder than in previous years.

 

But we also see one team each season pick up the form towards the end and make a late surge to the top 44, but they never overhaul the leaders, with PPGs of 2.4-2.53

 

Should Arsenal or Man City go on a run of form like that (2.5 ppg) they could end up on 82  points, we would need 36 points to stay top. Again the way this season is going with so many teams taking points off each other, I can't see that happening either.

[FireFox]

Pointless looking at points really the amount you need can alter so much. Especially at 4th, while Chelsea are still in the Champions League it is still possible that could get us nothing but a Europa League place

This year (and henceforth) 4th one gets Europa if two English teams outside the top 4 win the Europa and Champions League.

[ramboacdc]

Capture.PNG

 

Looking at the last 3 seasons the average PPG  over  the last 15 games for the champions has been 2.2 pts per game, if we take that as the base then it would put Arsenal and Man City maintaining champions form of 2.2 per game on 77 points, meaning we would need 30 points to match that.

 

But if we look at the changes in form over that period most teams at the top drop off slightly, so it would require Arsenal/City to increase their current ppg by 15% to  get  to 2.2 ppg. Seeing the way this season is going that will be harder than in previous years.

 

But we also see one team each season pick up the form towards the end and make a late surge to the top 44, but they never overhaul the leaders, with PPGs of 2.4-2.53

 

Should Arsenal or Man City go on a run of form like that (2.5 ppg) they could end up on 82  points, we would need 36 points to stay top. Again the way this season is going with so many teams taking points off each other, I can't see that happening either.

from that it says 11 wins wins you the tile. so find out 4 we can drop points at at we are laughing. 

[ramboacdc]

This year (and henceforth) 4th one gets Europa if two English teams outside the top 4 win the Europa and Champions League.

why they hell they bring that in? we dont even try for europa! 

[FireFox]

why they hell they bring that in? we dont even try for europa!

Liverpool might this year to get Champions League. Or even Man United.

[Detroit Blues]

So I spent way too much time doing the math on this, but I think in we play the rest of the game in our current form (including strength of schedule and home vs away), we'd end up in first with 77 pts. We could technically win the league title with only 74 pts as Arsenal would finish in second with 73.

 

As long as we take one point per game in our final 15 matches, which is horrible form, we'd end up ahead of Man U in 4th place.

 

Man U has the toughest remaining schedule, and Tottenham has the easiest which was surprising as they have an additional road game than us. 

 

But as we all know, none of this matters as we're going to win all 15 remaining games and end up with 92 points 

[Manwell Pablo]

This year (and henceforth) 4th one gets Europa if two English teams outside the top 4 win the Europa and Champions League.

 

Oh right

 

So we'd need Chelsea to win the CL and say Spurs to win the Europa League in order to mess us up then?

[WesMorganGod]

Its very hard to calculate because its so unpredictable,and we don't know who will go on a good run. but the way the results are going then no way 85 will win the title, it will be much much less.. you could win the title with around 75, 76, 77, 78 the way the points are going at the moment. 

 

We will all drop many more points, Us, Arsenal, Man City and Spurs will all drop a lot more points, its all about who is the most consistent now. we have 47 now.. so by my thinking another 30 points will get us the title, if we get 77 we can get the title I think. It won't be as high this season because the 1st place team Chelsea had much more points after 23 games last season. 

[FireFox]

Oh right

So we'd need Chelsea to win the CL and say Spurs to win the Europa League in order to mess us up then?

If we finish in 4th and Spurs don't make the top 4. Why I said Liverpool or Man United, Spurs seem more likely to finish top 4, and if they do and win Europa, then 4th still gives Champions League qualifiers.

[Manwell Pablo]

If we finish in 4th and Spurs don't make the top 4. Why I said Liverpool or Man United, Spurs seem more likely to finish top 4, and if they do and win Europa, then 4th still gives Champions League qualifiers.

 

You miss understand what I am talking about

 

Chelsea are not in a million years going to finish in the top 4, but could still theoretically win the CL (unlikely but its not like it's never happened before), thus taking another English place.

 

So from this I am reading it's possible for both 3rd and 4th place to go if say Liverpool win the Europa and Chelsea the CL.

[ScouseFox]

You miss understand what I am talking about

 

Chelsea are not in a million years going to finish in the top 4, but could still theoretically win the CL (unlikely but its not like it's never happened before), thus taking another English place.

 

So from this I am reading it's possible for both 3rd and 4th place to go if say Liverpool win the Europa and Chelsea the CL.

 

unless the rules have changed since last year, you are allowed 5 teams in the CL if one goes through winning either major trophy rather than finishing top 4. Spain had real, barca, atletico & valencia this year, and then added sevilla as they won the europa league. 

 

but i think what's being said here is if we got in that situation (aka liverpool or united win the europa league but finish 5th and 6th) we'd be fine unless chelsea then won the CL as well, taking the last of the 5 places from our country? 

 

it won't happen so it's pretty irrelevant tbh. 

[FireFox]

You miss understand what I am talking about

Chelsea are not in a million years going to finish in the top 4, but could still theoretically win the CL (unlikely but its not like it's never happened before), thus taking another English place.

So from this I am reading it's possible for both 3rd and 4th place to go if say Liverpool win the Europa and Chelsea the CL.

I do not missunderstand anything. The rules have changed. It is possible for 5 English teams to enter the Champions League This upcoming season. (Possibly last season too?)

[coalvillefox]

Ok here's my attempt to make sense of all this, been playing with stats for a while now and am finally ready to have my "10 pence worth"

 

I have looked at the points that each team finishing in the top 4 has achieved over the last 10 seasons and worked out the average. I have then looked at what the team in first position had after 23 games during each of the last 10 seasons (55). Leicester have the least points at this stage of the season then any other first placed team in the last 11 seasons, the average being 55. So with us 8 points below the average (or 14% if my maths is correct) I have taken the average points for the top 4 and minused 14% and that has given me a target for each of the four positions, see below.

 

1st - 75 points - 28 more required, 1.87 points per game

2nd - 71 points - 24 more required, 1.58 points per game

3rd - 66 points - 19 more required, 1.24 points per game

4th - 61 points - 14 more required, 0.95 points per game

 

This is all based on the league being 14% poorer (lack of a better word) this season than average.

 

If anyone wants to see how I worked it out the PM me.

[Manwell Pablo]

unless the rules have changed since last year, you are allowed 5 teams in the CL if one goes through winning either major trophy rather than finishing top 4. Spain had real, barca, atletico & valencia this year, and then added sevilla as they won the europa league. 

 

but i think what's being said here is if we got in that situation (aka liverpool or united win the europa league but finish 5th and 6th) we'd be fine unless chelsea then won the CL as well, taking the last of the 5 places from our country? 

 

it won't happen so it's pretty irrelevant tbh. 

 

He's saying the rules have changed, he said "this year and hence forward"

[ScouseFox]

He's saying the rules have changed, he said "this year and hence forward"

 

rules are there to be broken 

[Manwell Pablo]

I do not missunderstand anything. The rules have changed. It is possible for 5 English teams to enter the Champions League This upcoming season. (Possibly last season too?)

 

Right ok

 

So they'd both need to win the respective comps then. I am chilled if so