Manwell Pablo Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Actually sorry for dragging this out. The Europa League place has got to be an extra place that does not affect league standings in any league? So the winners for the Europa league would be irrelevant. So as I said, if Chelsea win the CL, we'd surely miss out.
ScouseFox Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Actually sorry for dragging this out. The Europa League place has got to be an extra place that does not affect league standings in any league? So the winners for the Europa league would be irrelevant. So as I said, if Chelsea win the CL, we'd surely miss out. weve got more chance of winning the champions league than chelsea
Manwell Pablo Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 weve got more chance of winning the champions league than chelsea Please don't say that you know what will happen
yidiot abroad Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Thought it'd be worth while have a thread to look at how many points it'll take to either win the League or qualify for the Champions League. A quick look at the last 3 years shows; 14/15 - 87 points won the league. 70 was enough for 4th qualifying for the Champions League playoffs (6 points ahead of Spurs 5th) 13/14 - 86 points won the league. 79 took 4th place (7 points ahead of Everton in 5th) 12/13 - 89 points won the league. 73 points 4th place (1 point ahead of Spurs in 5th) History suggests we need at least 70 points to qualify for the Champions League and in excess of 85 to win the league (that's not taking into account the strangeness of the results this year. Maybe less than 85 will win the league and less than 70 be enough for 4th but history suggests otherwise) So... We have 15 games remaining; 8 at Home, 7 Away. Current points total = 47. Premier League Title first, would require another 38 points (if we take 85 points as the winning total). 38 points from 15 games is achievable but a bit of a stretch. Champions League (4th place), history shows over 70 points, but I think 70 will be enough this year because of the way others are performing. Therefore 23 points from 15 games - would require 7 wins and 3 draw or 8 wins I think 8 wins from 15 games is achievable. Basically win all our home games Thoughts Has anyone else looked at what it'll take? Surely someone must have some spreadsheet skills we could use to look at what total we will need. I was going to look at the games others have to play and if they have to play each other - Our threats to the title are obviously Arsenal, Man City and Spurs; threat to 4th Man U, West Ham, Liverpool anyone else? hello from a spurs fan...hope you dont mind my replying to your post..i enjoyed reading and posting here before the league and cup games..re your post about threats for fourth place ...i really dont think you have to worry about those teams its just not going to happen for them or to you...as i said before i hope either of our teams can go all the way obviously i want us to win it....but it would be soooo nice to wipe the smile of the others faces
yorkie1999 Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Ok here's my attempt to make sense of all this, been playing with stats for a while now and am finally ready to have my "10 pence worth" I have looked at the points that each team finishing in the top 4 has achieved over the last 10 seasons and worked out the average. I have then looked at what the team in first position had after 23 games during each of the last 10 seasons (55). Leicester have the least points at this stage of the season then any other first placed team in the last 11 seasons, the average being 55. So with us 8 points below the average (or 14% if my maths is correct) I have taken the average points for the top 4 and minused 14% and that has given me a target for each of the four positions, see below. 1st - 75 points - 28 more required, 1.87 points per game 2nd - 71 points - 24 more required, 1.58 points per game 3rd - 66 points - 19 more required, 1.24 points per game 4th - 61 points - 14 more required, 0.95 points per game This is all based on the league being 14% poorer (lack of a better word) this season than average. If anyone wants to see how I worked it out the PM me. Which is the correct way to work out where we are currently.
FireFox Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Actually sorry for dragging this out. The Europa League place has got to be an extra place that does not affect league standings in any league? So the winners for the Europa league would be irrelevant. So as I said, if Chelsea win the CL, we'd surely miss out. There can be 5 places for one country. No more. So top 3 automatically get it. If Chelsea win the CL, they get it. If Liverpool win the EL, they get in. If both don't finish top 4, then 4th misses. Only way 4th misses out.
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Something that could really go in our favour would be if Man City and Arsenal go deep into the Champions League and likewise Spurs and Manchester United in the Europa League. That said, judging how many points we may get going forward against the points we already have is a tricky game - it's always harder to get points towards the end of a season, especially when on the verge of achieving something.
Manwell Pablo Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 There can be 5 places for one country. No more. So top 3 automatically get it. If Chelsea win the CL, they get it. If Liverpool win the EL, they get in. If both don't finish top 4, then 4th misses. Only way 4th misses out. No you can't be right, UEFA have scheduled the Europa League winner to be an automatic qualifier, they presume the CL winner qualifies domestically......For example if Chelsea win the Champions League and Villarreal win the Europa League that will mean 5 qualifiers from each league....which will mean someone somewhere in Europe will have to give their place up, pretty sure that will be the 4th place in England as has been the rules since Liverpool beat AC Milan..
stripeyfox Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 So basically we're saying that we are definately going to win the league?
Loggy88 Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 I know its a cliche but we just need to take it one game a time, I think we can beat Liverpool and that's all we should be concentrating on.
ScouseFox Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 No you can't be right, UEFA have scheduled the Europa League winner to be an automatic qualifier, they presume the CL winner qualifies domestically......For example if Chelsea win the Champions League and Villarreal win the Europa League that will mean 5 qualifiers from each league....which will mean someone somewhere in Europe will have to give their place up, pretty sure that will be the 4th place in England as has been the rules since Liverpool beat AC Milan.. well what happens if the europa league winner finishes in the top 4? where does the "allocated" place go then? or do they just have one less team and someone gets a bye in a qualifier somewhere?
Manwell Pablo Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 well what happens if the europa league winner finishes in the top 4? where does the "allocated" place go then? or do they just have one less team and someone gets a bye in a qualifier somewhere? I've found the rules, turns out it would take Chelsea and say Liverpool to win their comps to fuk us if we were to finish 4th Doesn't cover that in summary I'm going to check the detail.
foxes161 Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 I've found the rules, turns out it would take Chelsea and say Liverpool to win their comps to fuk us if we were to finish 4th Doesn't cover that in summary I'm going to check the detail. luckily neither has any chance of happening
Manwell Pablo Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 luckily neither has any chance of happening Yeah I have now decided it's too faking complicated to worry about for now .
foxes161 Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Yeah I have now decided it's too faking complicated to worry about for now . one point though Sevilla won the Europa last year and so therefore la liga had 5 champions league teams so surely the same would happen here if Chelsea or Liverpool won?
ceredigion Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 I'm going for somewhere between 76 and 78 points being enough to win the league this season. And 72 should be enough for a top 4 finish. Both Man City and Arsenal have lost 5 games already and Spurs have lost 3 and Man Utd have lost 6. We've only lost 2 out 23. In most years in a 38 game league, the winners lose between 3 and 5 games, so we're the only ones on course this season. The points total required to win the league this year might well be a historic low which helps us greatly. A contingent effect will be that the points total required to finish 17th and stay up will be higher than normal. It's usually around 35 points but might well be 40 this year, which makes life harder for the likes of Newcastle sunderland and Norwich. Either that or there will be a pronounced tightening of points in the middle of the table, 5 points separating 10 or 12 teams.
DANGEROUS TIGER Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 You wont need 85 points this year to win the league, not a chance in hell. In fact, if any team this season gets to 80, that will more than likely be enough in my opinion. Champions league I think is the same, it will be a lower total this time around for 4th spot. Considering the team in 5th currently only has 37 points, it will be hard to see anyone from 5th down getting close to 70 points. Man Utd with 37, if you extend there points total currently until the end of the season suggests they may get to around 65 at a push I think. I think if Leicester get 67 points this season, it'll be enough for 4th. So for me, I think 6 more wins and a handful of draws will be enough for 4th. Very attainable from here. Yes, you could be right, but I reckon we need 7 more wins.
filbertway Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 I've found the rules, turns out it would take Chelsea and say Liverpool to win their comps to fuk us if we were to finish 4th Doesn't cover that in summary I'm going to check the detail. That's literally what scouse and firefox told you about 5 times Never happen anyway. Plus we will finish top 3.
Paulmot Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Approx 78 - 82 should get 1st place this season, unless Man City want to win the next 15 games. In all honesty I think just over 60 should be enough for 4th place. It's happened before, the year we were relegated Liverpool finished 4th with 60... and 57 would have gotten 4th place that season. A quick google from that year shows what that table looked like compared to now. After 23 games then: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2003-2004/table/2004-01-31 5th, 6th, and 7th all on 34 points. Right now 5th, 6th and 7th have 37, 36 and 34. We expect Manchester United and Liverpool to be more consistent to what they've been performing, that could ultimately determine whether we finish inside the top 4. We can only do so much ourselves, but it really does come down to what other teams are allowing us to achieve by shooting themselves in the foot, the same way Liverpool getting 4th with 60 points in 2003-2004 because of mediocrity. 63 - 65 should cover 4th place. The maximum a team has gotten finishing 4th was also Liverpool who took 76 points. We need at least another 30-33 points to challenge for 1st place depending on how many points the others drop. The same tally could there abouts get Chelsea 4th place this season... It's a massive task. that season the final table top 6 teams scored the following points in the last 15 games Ars 38 points chel 33 manure 22 liv 26 Newc 32 A Villa 26 that means 36 points would win the title if either ars or m city score 38 points (someone with more time could check a longer time span) I think 84 will be enough to in the league
Westerby Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Why go back as far as that? Half of that time there were 22 teams, playing 42 matches. Obviously the points totals would be similarly higher. More recently 67 has been minimum for 4th, except where one or two teams broke away. With so many in contention for places, if it is won with less than 80 as I said pre-season, then 70 MAY be required for 4th, otherwise 70-72 for 3rd looks a real possibility and get 4/5 out of next 3 matches, and we can watch the others tear each other to shreds - and who knows ???.
EverybodyDannsNow Posted 26 January 2016 Posted 26 January 2016 I've been predicting our rivals' final 15 games to see how many points I think they will finish on. I honestly can't see how we will need more than 63 points to finish 4th. So if that was the case we would only need 13 more points to be playing Champions League football next season. So, 5 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses. It sounds crazy doesn't it, it just goes to show that it would take a monumental **** up for us to finish 5th now.
Les-TA-Jon Posted 26 January 2016 Posted 26 January 2016 OK so my original analysis was a bit wonky because I was going back to 1981, when 3 points for a win came in, but I forgot that there was 21+ teams in the top division until 1988. (Also I wonder what the merit is of analysing the points total of team finishing first is? Maybe we should look at the points total required to be 1 more than the teams finishing 2nd?) Anyway...So if we look at the 27 seasons from 88-89 to 14-15:1st Place Low: 75 Lower: 80 Average: 85.1 Upper: 90 High: 95 4th Place Low: 60 Lower: 64 Average: 68.2 Upper: 73 High: 79 So see the below table (It's all formula's so I will update it after every game): So you can see from the table that we probably need 13-21 points to finish 4th, meaning we have 32-24 'droppable' points. We've dropped 22 points so far this season. To finish 1st we need 28-38 points, meaning we can 'drop' 7-17 points.
billyfox1 Posted 26 January 2016 Posted 26 January 2016 OK so my original analysis was a bit wonky because I was going back to 1981, when 3 points for a win came in, but I forgot that there was 21+ teams in the top division until 1988. Good work but the premier league has only had 20 teams since 95-96 season. In 1988 Div 1 only went to 20 teams for 3 seasons then changed to 22 the season before the premier started.
Gerard Posted 26 January 2016 Posted 26 January 2016 I've found the rules, turns out it would take Chelsea and say Liverpool to win their comps to fuk us if we were to finish 4th Doesn't cover that in summary I'm going to check the detail. Only five teams from one country can qualify for CL. CL winners, Europa League winners and top three definitely qualify. The only way 4th place doesn't qualify if England has the CL winner and Europa League winner and neither of them finish in the top three. I'd worry about it neither the time.
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