LCFCABC Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Thought it'd be worth while have a thread to look at how many points it'll take to either win the League or qualify for the Champions League. A quick look at the last 3 years shows; 14/15 - 87 points won the league. 70 was enough for 4th qualifying for the Champions League playoffs (6 points ahead of Spurs 5th) 13/14 - 86 points won the league. 79 took 4th place (7 points ahead of Everton in 5th) 12/13 - 89 points won the league. 73 points 4th place (1 point ahead of Spurs in 5th) History suggests we need at least 70 points to qualify for the Champions League and in excess of 85 to win the league (that's not taking into account the strangeness of the results this year. Maybe less than 85 will win the league and less than 70 be enough for 4th but history suggests otherwise) So... We have 15 games remaining; 8 at Home, 7 Away. Current points total = 47. Premier League Title first, would require another 38 points (if we take 85 points as the winning total). 38 points from 15 games is achievable but a bit of a stretch. Champions League (4th place), history shows over 70 points, but I think 70 will be enough this year because of the way others are performing. Therefore 23 points from 15 games - would require 7 wins and 3 draw or 8 wins I think 8 wins from 15 games is achievable. Basically win all our home games Thoughts Has anyone else looked at what it'll take? Surely someone must have some spreadsheet skills we could use to look at what total we will need. I was going to look at the games others have to play and if they have to play each other - Our threats to the title are obviously Arsenal, Man City and Spurs; threat to 4th Man U, West Ham, Liverpool anyone else?
Guest kristianity77 Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 You wont need 85 points this year to win the league, not a chance in hell. In fact, if any team this season gets to 80, that will more than likely be enough in my opinion. Champions league I think is the same, it will be a lower total this time around for 4th spot. Considering the team in 5th currently only has 37 points, it will be hard to see anyone from 5th down getting close to 70 points. Man Utd with 37, if you extend there points total currently until the end of the season suggests they may get to around 65 at a push I think. I think if Leicester get 67 points this season, it'll be enough for 4th. So for me, I think 6 more wins and a handful of draws will be enough for 4th. Very attainable from here.
Gerard Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 That's 2.3pts per match. If Man City or Arsenal win 2.3pts per match for the next 15 games then they will be on 78pts. For us to get 79pts we'll need to W10 D2 L3 That's doable for us.
AKCJ Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 If we match what we did earlier in the season then we'll finish with 80 points which just shows how ****ing good we are.
ScouseFox Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 all the stats say it would be absolutely incredible if we were to finish outside the top 3 basically, simply the fact we are called leicester city and haven't spent 250m+ is the only reason we are not also 1/500 to finish top 4 and even money to win the league. we're better than everyone else, we have been for about 35 games now, and i can't for the life of me work out why that will suddenly just change because it's february and not january, december, november, october, september, august, may or april like all the other times we were just so much better than everyone else.
goose2010 Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 average around 2 points a game this season and you will be top 2 if not to win the league.
ScouseFox Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 You wont need 85 points this year to win the league, not a chance in hell. In fact, if any team this season gets to 80, that will more than likely be enough in my opinion. Champions league I think is the same, it will be a lower total this time around for 4th spot. Considering the team in 5th currently only has 37 points, it will be hard to see anyone from 5th down getting close to 70 points. Man Utd with 37, if you extend there points total currently until the end of the season suggests they may get to around 65 at a push I think. I think if Leicester get 67 points this season, it'll be enough for 4th. So for me, I think 6 more wins and a handful of draws will be enough for 4th. Very attainable from here. this is what people seem to be missing. this is THIS season, not an average of the last 25 seasons put together. this season so far the team in 5th are currently on course to gain 62 points. so unless the teams lower down start to pick up their form (which could well happen) we need 5 wins to guarantee 4th. obviously it won't be that simple, but it will require ourselves to basically just give up AND a massive upturn in form from anyone currently outside the top 4 for us to not finish at least 4th. which the stats actually show would be a pretty horrid finishing position compared to where we are now. the media are slowly believing the hype, it's about time our fans did too imo. i'll bet you 50 quid that there's not a thread of discussion on an arsenal or a man city forum saying "i'd take 6th from here". WE'RE ABOVE THEM AN ALL. we've been the best team in the country for almost 10 months. we've got 3 points more than everyone else in the league at the moment. surely us winning isn't shocking anyone any more. we should be expected to win. and we should be expected to finish top 4 from here, and we should be seriously looking at winning the league.
STUHILL Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 All this talk of 4th... I really hope we can finish 3rd or higher and get an automatic place in Champ League and not have to go through the playoffs route. Just imagine being in the draw for group stages
Fox Ulike Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Thought it'd be worth while have a thread to look at how many points it'll take to either win the League or qualify for the Champions League. A quick look at the last 3 years shows; 14/15 - 87 points won the league. 70 was enough for 4th qualifying for the Champions League playoffs (6 points ahead of Spurs 5th) 13/14 - 86 points won the league. 79 took 4th place (7 points ahead of Everton in 5th) 12/13 - 89 points won the league. 73 points 4th place (1 point ahead of Spurs in 5th) History suggests we need at least 70 points to qualify for the Champions League and in excess of 85 to win the league (that's not taking into account the strangeness of the results this year. Maybe less than 85 will win the league and less than 70 be enough for 4th but history suggests otherwise) So... We have 15 games remaining; 8 at Home, 7 Away. Current points total = 47. Premier League Title first, would require another 38 points (if we take 85 points as the winning total). 38 points from 15 games is achievable but a bit of a stretch. Champions League (4th place), history shows over 70 points, but I think 70 will be enough this year because of the way others are performing. Therefore 23 points from 15 games - would require 7 wins and 3 draw or 8 wins I think 8 wins from 15 games is achievable. Basically win all our home games Thoughts Has anyone else looked at what it'll take? Surely someone must have some spreadsheet skills we could use to look at what total we will need. I was going to look at the games others have to play and if they have to play each other - Our threats to the title are obviously Arsenal, Man City and Spurs; threat to 4th Man U, West Ham, Liverpool anyone else? Good research... 1 Manchester United 38 +43 79 2 Arsenal 38 +42 78 3Chelsea 38 +27 75 The 98/99 season might be more applicable because that looks like the last time that it was more than a 2-horse race. 79 won it that year, and with us, Arsenal, Man City, Spurs all in the running, it might be even less this year. 78 or maybe as low as 76… Goal difference could be key. Robert Huth’s joke free-kick won’t seem so funny if we lose the title on GD by one goal!
Langley Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Over the last 38 games we're 3rd. https://thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/
ramboacdc Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 if we were able to get double our last seasons points (not impossible) we would finish 2nd. 15 games left is 45 points meaning we would end up with 92 if we somehow won every game between now and then. to win the league with 87 that means we can only drop 5 points in the next 15 games. so thats 3 draws and we are below that, 2 losses we are below that. thats the logic im sticking to for now. once we have lost 2 more games or drew 3 i will say the title challenge is over.
whoareyaaa Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Top 4 is defo on without a doubt obviously we have to keep on top of our game but im sure the club know this, the only way we won't make the top 4 is if the whole team gets wiped out. The points total for winning the league and top 4 will be a hell of a lot lower than any of the past history suggests, its almost like that Championship season where from 6th to relegation there was like 6-10 points in it. With us now sitting 3 points clear the next 3 fixtures will give us a better outcome but nothing concrete on whether we can win it. 75-80 points will win the league this year for me.
Harry - LCFC Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 United and West Ham are picking up around 1.6 points per game. If that continues they'll finish with 61 and 59 points. Lets say they both improve, even so we won't need 70 points to get 4th.
Les-TA-Jon Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 A quick look at the last 3 years shows; History suggests Just to play devil's advocate - 3 years doesn't equal 'History'. You need a much bigger sample. If we take the last 34 years (i.e since 1981, when 3 points for a win was introduced), then we get an average of 85.3 points for 1st place. The lowest total was 75 and the highest was 90. For 4th place - the average over the last 34 years is 69 points - with lowest 60 and the highest 79. So look at this table: So we can see that 4th is very much on, given that our current points per game is 2.0, and we could even win the league on that, if it was the lowest required points in 30+ years. But we're likely to require more than that.
Kilworthfox Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 We are the only team currently averaging over 2 points per game. So around 75 points on current form will be sufficient for a top 4 place if not 1st. After seeing how inconsistent our title rivals have been and still are, I think we will be top 3 if not fully deserved champions. Whatever happens we will be playing champions league football for sure.
stripeyfox Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 I think we can get 70 odd points - maybe a few more. That will easily be top 4 and could even be top. The absolute maximum points that Man City or Arsenal could get by winning all 15 remaining games is 89 and there is no way that either of them are going to get near that. 75 - 80 will win the league I think.
filbertway Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 this is what people seem to be missing. this is THIS season, not an average of the last 25 seasons put together. this season so far the team in 5th are currently on course to gain 62 points. so unless the teams lower down start to pick up their form (which could well happen) we need 5 wins to guarantee 4th. obviously it won't be that simple, but it will require ourselves to basically just give up AND a massive upturn in form from anyone currently outside the top 4 for us to not finish at least 4th. which the stats actually show would be a pretty horrid finishing position compared to where we are now. the media are slowly believing the hype, it's about time our fans did too imo. i'll bet you 50 quid that there's not a thread of discussion on an arsenal or a man city forum saying "i'd take 6th from here". WE'RE ABOVE THEM AN ALL. we've been the best team in the country for almost 10 months. we've got 3 points more than everyone else in the league at the moment. surely us winning isn't shocking anyone any more. we should be expected to win. and we should be expected to finish top 4 from here, and we should be seriously looking at winning the league. Yep pretty much agree with the scouse lad.
Les-TA-Jon Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Assuming we need 80 points for 1st - that means we can only drop 12 points - which looks like W10 D3 L2.
fuchsntf Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Good research... 1 Manchester United 38 +43 79 2 Arsenal 38 +42 78 3Chelsea 38 +27 75 The 98/99 season might be more applicable because that looks like the last time that it was more than a 2-horse race. 79 won it that year, and with us, Arsenal, Man City, Spurs all in the running, it might be even less this year. 78 or maybe as low as 76… Goal difference could be key. Robert Huth’s joke free-kick won’t seem so funny if we lose the title on GD by one goal! I blame Wes morgan, no.. Vardy,, no Fuchs...no Kante...oopps no DD...etc.etc etc..blame blame, blame...
AKCJ Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Just to play devil's advocate - 3 years doesn't equal 'History'. You need a much bigger sample. If we take the last 34 years (i.e since 1981, when 3 points for a win was introduced), then we get an average of 85.3 points for 1st place. The lowest total was 75 and the highest was 90. For 4th place - the average over the last 34 years is 69 points - with lowest 60 and the highest 79. So look at this table: So we can see that 4th is very much on, given that our current points per game is 2.0, and we could even win the league on that, if it was the lowest required points in 30+ years. But we're likely to require more than that. Am I being thick here or does that mean we can drop 23 points and still expect to finish 4th? **** me. We haven't even dropped 23 points all season
Strokes Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 10 wins and 30 points will win the league imo, i think only 20 points needed for 4th
4ever and ever Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 6 wins 2 draws to get champions league. 10 wins 2 draws to win the league
Captain... Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Good research... 1 Manchester United 38 +43 79 2 Arsenal 38 +42 78 3Chelsea 38 +27 75 The 98/99 season might be more applicable because that looks like the last time that it was more than a 2-horse race. 79 won it that year, and with us, Arsenal, Man City, Spurs all in the running, it might be even less this year. 78 or maybe as low as 76… Goal difference could be key. Robert Huth’s joke free-kick won’t seem so funny if we lose the title on GD by one goal! If that happens then it won't be Robert Huth's free kick that I would be thinking off, it will be 2 different set-pieces I will be thinking of. What is it with French born players and costly missed penalties for us.
Les-TA-Jon Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Am I being thick here or does that mean we can drop 23 points and still expect to finish 4th? **** me. We haven't even dropped 23 points all season Yep. We've got 47 points. 45 to play for. So that's 22 required to get to the average of 69. So 23 'droppable'. Here's a comparison to the chasing pack: Red obviously denotes an impossible points total.
Guest kristianity77 Posted 25 January 2016 Posted 25 January 2016 Assuming we need 80 points for 1st - that means we can only drop 12 points - which looks like W10 D3 L2. Even 80 is high. As if we went 10-3-2, it would mean that anyone below us would need to go 11-3-1 to better us. As good as Arsenal and Man City can be on the day, neither of them are going to do that between now and the end of the season. Arsenal have to go away at Spurs, Man Utd, Everton, West Ham, Man City. You would imagine that there are one or two defeats in there and maybe a draw or two also. Man City have to go away to Liverpool, Chelsea, Southampton as well as a couple of tough home games in Arsenal, Man Utd, Stoke and Spurs. Quite a few dropped points there also, thats assuming they dont drop any in the so called easier games. Like I said, in my opinion if any team gets to 80, they will win it. But the required total is highly likely to be less. I wouldn't be surprised if 75 or 76 points won it this time round.
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