EU referendum opinion poll.

[RobHawk]

So if 55% of exports go to the EU, given some of the economic issues in some EU countries, would the UK leaving be seen as an opportunity for them to increase production and improve their own economic wealth?

[Strokes]

So if 55% of exports go to the EU, given some of the economic issues in some EU countries, would the UK leaving be seen as an opportunity for them to increase production and improve their own economic wealth?

Only if we don't get a decent trade deal, which we will. You only have to see the graph webbo has put up to see why the EU will have to give us a decent deal.

[Carl the Llama]

So if 55% of exports go to the EU, given some of the economic issues in some EU countries, would the UK leaving be seen as an opportunity for them to increase production and improve their own economic wealth?

39% (I corrected it after you posted), but I think you've misunderstood the direction of cashflow here:  16% of the money received by EU countries for their exports came from the UK.  39% of the money received by the UK for its exports came from the EU.  So we rely on them for income in return for our produce more than they do us.

 

On top of that:  Of the money exchanged in trade between the UK and EU countries, 55% is heading in their direction ie. we rely more on being able to buy goods from Europe to make up for what we can't produce than vice versa. Contrary to your interpretation the UK leaving could be seen as a way for them to improve their wealth by offering a less favourable trade agreement with us so that we're paying more for the goods we need to meet our shortcomings and would be a kick up our own backside to increase production.

 

Only if we don't get a decent trade deal, which we will. You only have to see the graph webbo has put up to see why the EU will have to give us a decent deal.

No.

[Webbo]

39% (I corrected it after you posted), but I think you've misunderstood the direction of cashflow here:  16% of the money received by EU countries for their exports came from the UK.  39% of the money received by the UK for its exports came from the EU.  So we rely on them for income in return for our produce more than they do us.

 

On top of that:  Of the money exchanged in trade between the UK and EU countries, 55% is heading in their direction ie. we rely more on being able to buy goods from Europe to make up for what we can't produce than vice versa. Contrary to your interpretation the UK leaving could be seen as a way for them to improve their wealth by offering a less favourable trade agreement with us so that we're paying more for the goods we need to meet our shortcomings and would be a kick up our own backside to increase production.

 

No.

16% of 27 countries against 39% of 1 country.

 

The graph shows they sell more to us than they do to America. Do you think they would choose a trade war with America? Germany isn't the only country to make cars, you can buy wine from countries other than France. Europe would be mad to impose tariffs on us.

[RobHawk]

16% of 27 countries against 39% of 1 country.

 

The graph shows they sell more to us than they do to America. Do you think they would choose a trade war with America? Germany isn't the only country to make cars, you can buy wine from countries other than France. Europe would be mad to impose tariffs on us.

 

You're probably right, but at the same time it does seem we are as dependent on them (if not more) than they are of us when it comes to trade. They will have a much bigger voice in world trade than we would alone, so i'm wondering how the out campaign and be so sure that leaving the EU would be good for trade? 

 

Forgive me if i'm being slow, but i really can't see how that argument adds up?

[Webbo]

You're probably right, but at the same time it does seem we are as dependent on them (if not more) than they are of us when it comes to trade. They will have a much bigger voice in world trade than we would alone, so i'm wondering how the out campaign and be so sure that leaving the EU would be good for trade? 

 

Forgive me if i'm being slow, but i really can't see how that argument adds up?

Because we could negotiate deals with other countries without having to worry about the vested interests of the rest of the EU.

[RobHawk]

Because we could negotiate deals with other countries without having to worry about the vested interests of the rest of the EU.

But wouldn't we have more competition for those deals since we would be competing against the EU on top of the rest of the world? 

[Webbo]

But wouldn't we have more competition for those deals since we would be competing against the EU on top of the rest of the world?

We're competing against the rest of the world any way. Nobody buys our stuff just because we're in the EU.

[RobHawk]

We're competing against the rest of the world any way. Nobody buys our stuff just because we're in the EU.

Surely it makes sense that on top of the US, China etc we'd have another competitor in the EU if we left, only much closer to home. We may have more opportunities to negotiate deals across the world but it doesn't mean we would be best placed to win the contracts. Or am i missing something?

[Carl the Llama]

16% of 27 countries against 39% of 1 country.

 

The graph shows they sell more to us than they do to America. Do you think they would choose a trade war with America? Germany isn't the only country to make cars, you can buy wine from countries other than France. Europe would be mad to impose tariffs on us.

The UK relies on imported goods produced in Europe.  We can't replace all the food they send our way without both reducing its freshness and incurring extra shipping costs and contributing to higher pollution to boot, indeed those last two conditions apply to every product we choose to re-source and that's before accounting for the price effect of no longer purchasing from a region we have a very good trade agreement with.  We are the beggars in this scenario as grim as it sounds.

 

I doubt an increase in cost will hugely affect Britain's taste for good wine or luxury cars either.

 

Now there will undoubtedly be new agreements forged after an exit but I fail to see any scenario where exiting the EU doesn't lead to a larger strain on the UK economy.

 

You mentioned a trade war with the USA, well it looks like their products would be more expensive for us too.  

[Carl the Llama]

Basically you aren't missing anything Rob.

[Carl the Llama]

I really hope we vote to stay, it would suck the biggest balls ever if I finally move back to the UK in time for the economy to go to shit because we don't know how to play nice with others.

[Webbo]

The UK relies on imported goods produced in Europe.  We can't replace all the food they send our way without both reducing its freshness and incurring extra shipping costs and contributing to higher pollution to boot, indeed those last two conditions apply to every product we choose to re-source and that's before accounting for the price effect of no longer purchasing from a region we have a very good trade agreement with.  We are the beggars in this scenario as grim as it sounds.

 

I doubt an increase in cost will hugely affect Britain's taste for good wine or luxury cars either.

 

Now there will undoubtedly be new agreements forged after an exit but I fail to see any scenario where exiting the EU doesn't lead to a larger strain on the UK economy.

 

You mentioned a trade war with the USA, well it looks like their products would be more expensive for us too.  

So we'll still want to buy stuff from them, quite true imo, but they won't want to buy from us?

[Carl the Llama]

So we'll still want to buy stuff from them, quite true imo, but they won't want to buy from us?

Of course but they'll have the better hand when we sit down at the negotiating table.

[Webbo]

Of course but they'll have the better hand when we sit down at the negotiating table.

We buy more from them than they buy from us. That's a fact. They'd be cutting off their nose to spite their face if they decided to be awkward. 

[Carl the Llama]

We buy more from them than they buy from us. That's a fact. They'd be cutting off their nose to spite their face if they decided to be awkward. 

 

The UK relies on imported goods produced in Europe.  We can't replace all the food they send our way without both reducing its freshness and incurring extra shipping costs and contributing to higher pollution to boot, indeed those last two conditions apply to every product we choose to re-source and that's before accounting for the price effect of no longer purchasing from a region we have a very good trade agreement with.  We are the beggars in this scenario as grim as it sounds.

[Webbo]

Of course we can buy food from outside the EU. Half of our food comes from Africa and Asia already. That's a ridiculous argument.

[Carl the Llama]

Of course we can buy food from outside the EU. Half of our food comes from Africa and Asia already. That's a ridiculous argument.

Do we get special shipping rates from Africa and Asia then?

[Carl the Llama]

And do ships from those destinations not pollute the environment these days?

[Webbo]

Do we get special shipping rates from Africa and Asia then?

We're buying from them now, we import tonnes of lamb from NZ so it's already cheaper. We wouldn't have to pay any tariffs on those imports once we left so it would be cheaper still.

[Webbo]

And do ships from those destinations not pollute the environment these days?

Like I said, it's happening already so there won't be any difference. If your worried about the environment by taking control of our own fishing waters we can protect fish stocks.

[Jon the Hat]

I'm sure Carl doesn't really believe that EU farmers will stop selling to UK retailers.

[Grewks]

There is no reason to stay within the current E.U. format.

[Carl the Llama]

I'm sure Carl doesn't really believe that EU farmers will stop selling to UK retailers.

No, I think the price will go up. And I think that sourcing the goods we currently purchase from the EU elsewhere would see us paying more than we currently do. Is that so hard to understand?

 

We're buying from them now, we import tonnes of lamb from NZ so it's already cheaper. We wouldn't have to pay any tariffs on those imports once we left so it would be cheaper still.

You know what?  You're right.  Let's replace all of our current imports with produce from New Zealand. 

 

Like I said, it's happening already so there won't be any difference. If your worried about the environment by taking control of our own fishing waters we can protect fish stocks.

Maybe we can use the EU's Common Fisheries Policy as a good framework to start from.

 

There is no reason to stay within the current E.U. format.

You've won me over.

[Babylon]

Surely it makes sense that on top of the US, China etc we'd have another competitor in the EU if we left, only much closer to home. We may have more opportunities to negotiate deals across the world but it doesn't mean we would be best placed to win the contracts. Or am i missing something?

 

Do we not already compete with other countries? Just because we're in the EU, it doesn't stop Germany and France being a competitor for contracts.  Serious question.