Sharpe's Foxes Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 There are a lot of positives to be taken from yesterday, as Claudio has suggested. We lost but it's not as if we had our arses handed to us. I feel we would have comfortably got a positive result had we stayed as 11 men. I'm not blaming Was or Simpson, they were just cruel circumstances that could have easily been avoided but for a embarrassing set of moaning players, manager, fans & a spineless ref. We all know we were managing the game well, as we did at Spurs & at Man City. We are able to compete with our biggest rivals on their turf & walk away with pride (& with 6/9 pts). We are still top & in the best position to win the league. I don't think we would ever be complacent, but just in case that could happen.......yesterday served as a reminder. I guess if I had to pick one, 3pts from Man City or 3pt from Arsenal, no question you would feel better getting those 3pts from City because if City had beaten us they pretty much have the title wrapped up according to the book makers.
demon_dog Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 At least it means now that the tabloids will concentrate on their darling London teams. Hopefully we stay under the radar for a while now. All we will hear is how wonderful Arsenal / Spurs are now or Spurs / Arsenal slip up on their way to the title. The pressure is going to be on them thanks to the press, let's hope they keep up the good work!
Izzy Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 Will someone please answer my question. If I was a bookie I'd be able to give you a rational answer - but I'm not, so I can't. Looks like we're now third favorites behind Arsenal and Spurs and that suits me fine. Maybe the bookies think we'll fall away now and that Arsenal will kick on with new confidence - who knows. And Spurs are the 'in form' team with the momentum etc. Anyway, fvck what the bookies think, our team can only control what they can control from here on in...
Brown Fox Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 man city are the only ones who can play the "experience" card. spurs have nobody who's ever won the prem, we have huth, arsenal have cech and welbeck. arsenal as a squad have obviously been around the top positions in the past but their "experience" is failure. they're specialists in failure and that's incredibly hard to get out of. i'd rather be a bit wet behind the ears and full of enthusiasm and spirit than thinking "oh god i hope we don't blow this AGAIN". Yeah agree with that. Also another interesting thing from is you can tell the pressure on Arsenal is huge. I know the celebrations were going to mental for a 95th minute winner against title rivals but the whole lap of honour and OTT celebrations all round players and fans alike show how much stress they're under. On the other hand we went to Man City battered them 3-1, and our players seemed calm as ever and that they were taking things as they come and playing within themselves.
Sharpe's Fox Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 I guess if I had to pick one, 3pts from Man City or 3pt from Arsenal, no question you would feel better getting those 3pts from City because if City had beaten us they pretty much have the title wrapped up according to the book makers.l wtf is that username I will sue you son
ScouseFox Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 Yeah agree with that. Also another interesting thing from is you can tell the pressure on Arsenal is huge. I know the celebrations were going to mental for a 95th minute winner against title rivals but the whole lap of honour and OTT celebrations all round players and fans alike show how much stress they're under. On the other hand we went to Man City battered them 3-1, and our players seemed calm as ever and that they were taking things as they come and playing within themselves. yeah, the pressure they put on the ref over pretty much nothing was due to the pressure put on them by the crowd. if the ref hadn't bowed to that pressure (not giving the mahrez penalty, perhaps giving simpson a final warning) it would've been them losing players to red cards. they were so rattled. if they play every game like that until the end of the season there is no chance they win the league. their heads went all at the same time when they fell behind.
nnfox Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 Will someone please answer my question. It will be because there would suddenly have been an influx of cash put on arsenal after the win. If their odds stay relatively long, the bookies stand to lose a lot of money. Therefore to minimise their losses, they shorten the odds. They simply react to the market and it is a reflection of public opinion.
Sharpe's Foxes Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 l wtf is that username I will sue you son . Your name didn't even come up when I registered. Like minded geniuses we are.
Izzy Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 I know we are all pissed off and outraged about Sunday, but think back to other set backs: Our previous 3 defeats have all seen us go on amazing unbeaten runs. Let's not forget Deeney day, even relegation to League One, we have the strength of character to come back. If we had won there was always the danger of getting ahead of ourselves and maybe not approaching the next run of games in the correct way. This defeat and the manner of it will mean there is no way we will be taking anything for granted or anyone lightly. We will be fired up from now until the end of the season and that feeling on Sunday will be one they will not want to repeat ever. I'm still fuming about yesterdays result and Arsenal and their fans have gone right down in my estimations. But looking back to the full time whistle, my initial reaction was 'right then, lets' fvckin have it!!!' As a supporter, I felt EVEN MORE determined to win the league after the game and I hope the players feel the same. I hope the team are hurting and can really channel that aggression into positive performances and results between now and the end of the season. We're still 2 points clear with a favorable run in - it's not the end of the world. I'm fvckin buzzing now because I reckon Claudio will weave his magic and demand the team step up and push for glory. The dream is still on. I believe in this team and we deserve to be champions..
Great Boos Up Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 l wtf is that username I will sue you son HaHa, He's turned you into his own private plural. Sue!
Richmondfox Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 It's not the defeat or even the nature of the defeat that bothers me, it's the lack of class that Wenger, Arsenal players and the fans have, they deserve each other. 6 points from Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal is great. The team aren't going to let this get them down and the press are moving on to Spurs and Arsenal so we can sit back and let the results roll in again.
Sharpe's Foxes Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 I'm still fuming about yesterdays result and Arsenal and their fans have gone right down in my estimations. But looking back to the full time whistle, my initial reaction was 'right then, lets' fvckin have it!!!' As a supporter, I felt EVEN MORE determined to win the league after the game and I hope the players feel the same. I hope the team are hurting and can really channel that aggression into positive performances and results between now and the end of the season. We're still 2 points clear with a favorable run in - it's not the end of the world. I'm fvckin buzzing now because I reckon Claudio will weave his magic and demand the team step up and push for glory. The dream is still on. I believe in this team and we deserve to be champions.. I do find it interesting that they made a big deal about Man City's 200 mil team but were silent about Arsenals 180 mil team during the build up.
Westerby Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 Bookies work to an algorithm that basically takes the future matches and 'predicts' the likely odds for each match. In reality, there are 3pts awarded for any match that has a winner, 2pts where there is a draw. The number of draws over a season means that the average number of pts is between 2.70 and 2.75 per match although that is rather irrelevant for this purpose. With a very uneven match, one team is very short in the betting and this leads to a greater share of the 3pts being awarded than in a close match. The closer the match, the more likely a draw becomes, and the more likely it is that only 2pts will be awarded. Predicting results on a match by match basis means having to 'guess' all the results accurately - even where teams will drop points. Doing it the algorithm way, says teams will drop points but without being in specific matches. For Arsenal, there are more matches where they will be hot favourites than is the case with the other teams. This means the algorithm will be awarding them closer to 3pts than with say, Leicester or Tottenham. Leicester have been at generous odds throughout. There is a potential reason for this too. Taking the last 2 away games, Leicester were at much bigger odds than they should have been, but to decrease Leicester's odds, bookies would have needed to stretch Man City and Arsenal prices - which they were wary of doing as that may have caused a large risk to them. Take Man City v Villa in a few weeks time where City will be around 1/5 to win, that will give them a theoretical 2.61pts and Villa about 0.27pts (on average) if this match was played 100 times. So an expectation of 288pts awarded in those 100 matches. Man Utd v Arsenal will be tight in the betting and will show each team with a likelihood of around 1.35pts under the same conditions, with an expectation of just 270pts awarded. As a consequence, a single BAD result for Arsenal will have a far greater impact on their title odds than would be the case for the other teams.
Cornish Lair Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 It will be because there would suddenly have been an influx of cash put on arsenal after the win. If their odds stay relatively long, the bookies stand to lose a lot of money. Therefore to minimise their losses, they shorten the odds. They simply react to the market and it is a reflection of public opinion. Thankyou.
Kendal Fox Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 I was thinking exactly this today - hopefully this will sharpen us up. Plus all the talk today has been about Spurs and Arsenal's title battle. And yet we are still 2 points clear. I was thinking what you've just said you were thinking, today! It is an anxious time for the Foxes no doubt, but as you point out we are still in the lead by 2 points. that means Arsenal and Spurs still have to win and hope we lose, even then, we'd still be in the title race, just a point behind them with 2 more winnable fixtures in a row whilst they have to play eachother (and other big clubs shortly after). If it were the other way round, with Arsenal having a 5 point lead cut down to 2, with winnable fixtures in the pipeline, it's highly doubtful all the talk would suddenly be of Leicester becoming the new favourites.
Kendal Fox Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 I know we are all pissed off and outraged about Sunday, but think back to other set backs: Our previous 3 defeats have all seen us go on amazing unbeaten runs. Let's not forget Deeney day, even relegation to League One, we have the strength of character to come back. If we had won there was always the danger of getting ahead of ourselves and maybe not approaching the next run of games in the correct way. This defeat and the manner of it will mean there is no way we will be taking anything for granted or anyone lightly. We will be fired up from now until the end of the season and that feeling on Sunday will be one they will not want to repeat ever. I'm trying to be optimistic and am looking at it in a similar way to yourself. I really thought 4 or 5 points was the most realistic tally we would take from this run of 3 games, so it's important to take a step back and be grateful for taking 6. We are still in the lead, and as you allude to, one would think Ranieri and the boys will approach the next 2 games with the utmost respect and sensibility. Just digressing, but do you think it is a plus that we play on the Saturday, before the rivals? A chance to at least restore that 5 point cushion, albeit temporarily?
deejdeej Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 Feeling positive again right now. Yesterday felt like a loss against a relegation rival with a game to go! All the media talk is of Spurs and Arsenal now and it could suit us, the coverage of us after beating Man City was pretty full on!
BoyJones Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 Took me many hours to get over the gut wrenching disappointment, but now I agree with the original post, we live to fight another day. We will bounce back, we will use this awful feeling to fuel future success. Make no mistake, the other three teams will fear us, because they don't play us anymore. We are top and they can't affect us. They are relying on other teams to help them win the title. We don't have that worry. Odds and teamwork are still in our favour / hands, as my brick in the wall says "keep the faith".
Sharpe's Foxes Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 He even put Harper as his avi ffs That is in deference to you. Obviously I prefer Sean but I will have to settle for Daragh and being your second as you were here first.
fuchsntf Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 Take this sequence in....:- WDWWWWDWWWLD. 12game sequence after losing to Arsenal 26sept 2015. That 27pts would see us through to 80pts Allowing us to drop 9pts. Its still just under a 3rd of the season to go. That sequence started with 3 away games with 1 home game. Our next 4 fixtures, HHAH. INTERESTING innit..???
Sharpe's Fox Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 That is in deference to you. Obviously I prefer Sean but I will have to settle for Daragh and being your second as you were here first. fair one as long as you recognise you're a one dotter.
ThaiFox Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 Definitely not the best that could have happened. A 95th minute Vardy winner would have been the best to have happened! However I do get what you mean, our squad seem to be galvanised when we have a setback. The coverage now being centred on Spurs and Arsenal will be of help as the pressure I heaped over on those guys. What I also find interesting is that pundits keep saying we've never been involved in a title race (even though we have in slightly differing circumstances as it was the championship) however nobody has mentioned that Spurs have never really been in the race either. They've finished 4th a couple of times but they've never been directly involved in the title. Who's to say the pressure won't get to them? Good realistic post which sums things up. But a couple of points. Firstly, WE have been involved in a title race, just two seasons ago. OK, it was the championship, but it was still a title under pressure, and we did it with the core of this current team. This should help with the run in. Secondly, don't forget after we lost 2-5 to Arse-nal at the KP, the next 12 games earned us 27 points. If we can use that as a motivational point it would almost assure us of the title. We'd have 80 points. Tottingham Hotspuds and the moaning Arse-nal would need 30 points and Man City 34 points to overtake that total from just 12 games. We just need to go on, one game at a time and forget every result and concentrate fully on the next match, starting with Norwich. No match will be easy as we've found out with Bournmouth and Villa recently. We have the time between matches to recover and prepare properly, whilst others will be involved in other competitions, and will hopefully stay in these competitions for the next couple of months at least. Ranieri now has to show he has the nous, nerve, tactical know how, and management skill to get us through these last 12 matches. This is his big chance too.
Westerby Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 It will be because there would suddenly have been an influx of cash put on arsenal after the win. If their odds stay relatively long, the bookies stand to lose a lot of money. Therefore to minimise their losses, they shorten the odds. They simply react to the market and it is a reflection of public opinion. That is unlikely to be the case. Does anyone think that Arsenal at 2/1 before the match, went out to 5/2 after the match before bookies decided to cut the odds due to a sudden influx of cash. Try finding someone who could honestly say they backed Arsenal at a bigger price (even the same price) after the match than they could have got before! Bookies odds at the time would have changed in anticipation. If they change days or a week later that is a different matter, indicative of support. Take these examples. How many people would have been able to back Pep as new Man City manager at a huge price - or were his odds really low BEFORE a bet was struck? How did bookies make a market on the Premier League before a bet was struck? Did they put all teams at 16/1 and see which ones were backed, and then shorten Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal because a lot backed them at 16/1 and put Leicester, Sunderland and Villa at bigger odds because nobody backed them at 16/1? If bookies always waited to see what people were backing heavily before changing the odds, there would not be many left.
HighPeakFox Posted 15 February 2016 Posted 15 February 2016 We need our 12th man to roar for the next matches
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