The rise of nationalism.

[GazzinderFox]

5 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Assuming that war or apocalypse is inevitable can be dismissed as "screeching liberal fantasy", but it's reasonable to assume that it is now more likely (unless Trump's actions in office are very different from his isolationist rhetoric - quite possible).

 

@leicsmac has already drawn attention to the possibility of trade wars generating conflict (e.g. China's response if Trump makes good on his threat to impose 45% tariffs on imports from China....and the US response if China then demands repayment of the massive US debt to China?).

 

Also, Trump being someone "less likely to go to war" and (rhetorically) less prepared to act as the world's policeman could actually increase the likelihood of wars in Europe and elsewhere (e.g. Russian invasions in E. Europe; Chinese aggression in E. Asia; Turkey v. Kurds in Middle East).

 

In Putin, we already have a powerful leader in Europe who has recently proved that he is prepared to start wars.

In the context of Ukraine, Syria, the Trump victory & Russian resentment over the loss of their East European sphere of influence, this news is rather alarming: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/11/serbia-deports-russians-suspected-of-plotting-montenegro-coup

"Serbia has deported a group of Russians suspected of involvement in a coup plot in neighbouring Montenegro, the Guardian has learned, in the latest twist in a murky sequence of events that apparently threatened the lives of two European prime ministers. The plotters were allegedly going to dress in police uniforms to storm the Montenegrin parliament in Podgorica, shoot the prime minister, Milo Ðjukanović, and install a pro-Moscow party. The Russian fingerprints on the October plot have heightened intrigue about Moscow’s ambitions in a part of Europe hitherto thought to be gravitating towards the EU’s orbit".

Of course Russia is a concern, and as I said all the more reason for Europe to put its military house in order.

 

The good thing about Putin is he's a very shrewd tactician and I think he's very good at butting right up against the line and outwitting western leaders but he hasn't crossed over it so as to make western intervention a foregone conclusion. I don't think he will in the future either because he knows he will lose. Russia is a country that is on its economic knees.

 

Do you not think we're at the extreme end of the ifs and buts scenario though? Wouldn't a major war over trade issues be utterly counterproductive for both sides.

 

Its screechy because its all so hyperthetical. Surely if there's going to be a war it's going to be in the Middle East where they already are fighting? But even that looks a lot less likely than it did a year ago.

[Spiritwalker]

5 hours ago, GazzinderFox said:

I'm sorry that's complete popycock they didn't just happen at all.

 

The build up to WW1 was a couple of decades in the making and due to the influence of the militaristic, Prussian inspired, German unification and expansionism and to a monarch with a screw lose wanting an empire for himself like ours. WW2 was on the cards and predicted after the treaty of Versailles in 1922 and was really an extension of WW1 anyway. A great deal of the wars in the rest of the 20th century ultimately have their roots in WW1 either because of the decline or end of empires or the rise of communism wich also was also a product of WW1.

 

You may not have noticed but the appetite for war all over the west is at an all low. We wouldn't even put soldiers into Iraq to fight against IS, a country we recently occupied and an opponent that were universally despised even by most Muslims!

 

Look at the Russian economy and how it was brought to its knees by cunning manipulation of the oil price. Who's going to fund these wars?

 

These things don't just happen and if you can't come up with a more compelling argument for why we're heading for one now you ought to keep your neuroses to yourself and stop banging on about it.

As you point out there were a number of causes for WW1 some of which were several years

before 1914 but many of these did have nationalism or ethnic identity at there heart. I agree

with you to a point that WW2 was an inevitable consequence of WW1 but again I think you

are underplaying the role nationalism played. Hitler was able to mobilise nearly the whole of

the German population first by tapping into and then manipulating their sense of nationalism.

Again I agree that after Iraq and Afganistan the West has no appetite for war but then we

didn't before WW2 either.

I don't though think there will be another major war any time soon. The terrible loss of life

in WW1 and 2 will act as a deterrent. The possibility of nuclear weapons becoming involved

will also act as a deterrent.

 

 

[Merging Cultures]

Did Nationalism ever go away? Or do people feel more or less able to express their feelings?

[GazzinderFox]

2 minutes ago, Spiritwalker said:

As you point out there were a number of causes for WW1 some of which were several years

before 1914 but many of these did have nationalism or ethnic identity at there heart. I agree

with you to a point that WW2 was an inevitable consequence of WW1 but again I think you

are underplaying the role nationalism played. Hitler was able to mobilise nearly the whole of

the German population first by tapping into and then manipulating their sense of nationalism.

Again I agree that after Iraq and Afganistan the West has no appetite for war but then we

didn't before WW2 either.

I don't though think there will be another major war any time soon. The terrible loss of life

in WW1 and 2 will act as a deterrent. The possibility of nuclear weapons becoming involved

will also act as a deterrent.

 

 

Oh no I agree with you, these wars were all about nationalism and empires on a scale that is incomparable to what we have today. I'm of the opinion though that there was only one world war it just had a big gap in the middle.

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

Of course Russia is a concern, and as I said all the more reason for Europe to put its military house in order.

 

The good thing about Putin is he's a very shrewd tactician and I think he's very good at butting right up against the line and outwitting western leaders but he hasn't crossed over it so as to make western intervention a foregone conclusion. I don't think he will in the future either because he knows he will lose. Russia is a country that is on its economic knees.

 

Do you not think we're at the extreme end of the ifs and buts scenario though? Wouldn't a major war over trade issues be utterly counterproductive for both sides.

 

Its screechy because its all so hyperthetical. Surely if there's going to be a war it's going to be in the Middle East where they already are fighting? But even that looks a lot less likely than it did a year ago.

 

I agree with your analysis of Putin having been shrewd enough to aggressively push Russian interests as far as he can get away, but no further.

The problem is that, if Trump does adopt isolationist policies, showing little interest in Europe/NATO, that will encourage Putin to think that he can push things further than before. That might not involve WW3, but it might well involve Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, causing all sorts of stability.

 

Russia might be "on its economic knees" but it is a major military power with a large army and nuclear weapons - and autocratic leaders of nations "on their knees" have been known to use foreign policy aggression to stoke up nationalism and bolster their support base at home.

 

I agree that trade wars would be counterproductive for everyone long-term. But a lot of Trump's rhetoric has been based on "making America great again", stopping cheap Chinese imports, stopping jobs going offshore to Mexico, ripping up NAFTA etc.

If he doesn't act on his promises once he's in office, he'll risk making himself very unpopular very quickly. If he slaps high tariffs on imports and invests a lot in US industry/infrastructure, he can retain much of his popularity. It might damage the US economy in the long run, but it's big enough to cope in the short-term. Of course, it could contribute to a global depression, to more Chinese dumping of cheap exports in UK/Europe (remember our steel crisis?) etc....not to mention retaliation from powerful economies like China, or even the EU. Trump might not mind that, if voters in the Rust Belt feel that he's acting to "make America great again", doing something about their problems - and fueling American national pride. 

[Spiritwalker]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Assuming that war or apocalypse is inevitable can be dismissed as "screeching liberal fantasy", but it's reasonable to assume that it is now more likely (unless Trump's actions in office are very different from his isolationist rhetoric - quite possible).

 

@leicsmac has already drawn attention to the possibility of trade wars generating conflict (e.g. China's response if Trump makes good on his threat to impose 45% tariffs on imports from China....and the US response if China then demands repayment of the massive US debt to China?).

 

Also, Trump being someone "less likely to go to war" and (rhetorically) less prepared to act as the world's policeman could actually increase the likelihood of wars in Europe and elsewhere (e.g. Russian invasions in E. Europe; Chinese aggression in E. Asia; Turkey v. Kurds in Middle East).

 

In Putin, we already have a powerful leader in Europe who has recently proved that he is prepared to start wars.

In the context of Ukraine, Syria, the Trump victory & Russian resentment over the loss of their East European sphere of influence, this news is rather alarming: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/11/serbia-deports-russians-suspected-of-plotting-montenegro-coup

"Serbia has deported a group of Russians suspected of involvement in a coup plot in neighbouring Montenegro, the Guardian has learned, in the latest twist in a murky sequence of events that apparently threatened the lives of two European prime ministers. The plotters were allegedly going to dress in police uniforms to storm the Montenegrin parliament in Podgorica, shoot the prime minister, Milo Ðjukanović, and install a pro-Moscow party. The Russian fingerprints on the October plot have heightened intrigue about Moscow’s ambitions in a part of Europe hitherto thought to be gravitating towards the EU’s orbit".

Your point about Trump is a very good one. If the US decides to just defend their own

borders and interests that would be dangerous for world order. Putin has already showed

he is prepared to do anything he can get away with and if America turns a blind eye then

Russia's neighbours are going to be very worried. Let's be honest we rely on the US to

try and keep world order, without them who else will keep Russia, N.Korea etc in check

certainly not the EU or UN.

As for the plot in Montenegro, this does seem feasible as the Russian do have previous

with this type of thing.

[GaelicFox]

I have a sense the internet is destroying the European NeoLiberal order and as such the vortex being created in the dismantling of the NeoLiberal order is being filled by a rise or at least more open expression of nationalism ...it's a global movement  ... the European unions federalist agenda was and is a covert move to maintain the NeoLiberal order , Brexit is a sign that there is a hole in the NeoLiberal Wall and the the wall is crumbling 

 

While in America the internet has wiped out the NeoCon order and the mass movement to elect Trump was I belief fuelled in part by nationalist sentiment and a clear sign NeoCon politics have been wiped out 

 

The world is very unstable at present and Trump thankfully offers some respite in turbulent waters. 

 

I expect Putin to play his last card at some stage and his last card is to re-assert the soviet superpower claims ....the Baltic states will be his first target 

 

Clinton would have meant a very dangerous world , right now it's just turbulent ....

[GaelicFox]

4 hours ago, Spiritwalker said:

Your point about Trump is a very good one. If the US decides to just defend their own

borders and interests that would be dangerous for world order. Putin has already showed

he is prepared to do anything he can get away with and if America turns a blind eye then

Russia's neighbours are going to be very worried. Let's be honest we rely on the US to

try and keep world order, without them who else will keep Russia, N.Korea etc in check

certainly not the EU or UN.

As for the plot in Montenegro, this does seem feasible as the Russian do have previous

with this type of thing.

Why should it fall to America to protect us all ? 

 

As Trump said we all need to meet our obligations on defence spending and he is right , this country has a joke navy and the army not much better , NATO is failing to protect without American mass spending and Trump has made it clear that he will scale back NATO spending by the US 

 

Putin isn't the issue .... he is actually the solution , he has held Russia together and has done an amazing job , yes a crook and yes a mad man at times but better the devil you know , we should embrace him and bring him to the table .... 

 

if we went to war and had to conscript looks at the fecking state of our kids they couldn't fight a war ! But looks at the Russian mobs in the summer and you can see Russia could mobilise a very  serous mob quickly , with no America to protect us they would waltz through Europe 

 

war is futile , get Putin to london and make a big deal of him and change the world by making friends ...enemy's never make a positive change to any world order !!! 

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

At school in the sixties, the favourite chant at secondary school mates, was, "Better dead than Red." I believe it has stood the test of time, and I still feel the same, with regard to the venomous Russian filth. Stalin left his bloody hands, for the succession of Russian rulers that followed. Hitler and Stalin were of the same vile ilk, but on opposite sides of the fence.

 

Russia will always be a nation of total evil, along with North Korea, which I believe is even more dangerous to world peace.

[leicsmac]

10 minutes ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said:

At school in the sixties, the favourite chant at secondary school mates, was, "Better dead than Red." I believe it has stood the test of time, and I still feel the same, with regard to the venomous Russian filth. Stalin left his bloody hands, for the succession of Russian rulers that followed. Hitler and Stalin were of the same vile ilk, but on opposite sides of the fence.

 

Russia will always be a nation of total evil, along with North Korea, which I believe is even more dangerous to world peace.

Aaand sentiment like this is the reason I think how I do about the future.

[Spiritwalker]

25 minutes ago, GaelicFox said:

Why should it fall to America to protect us all ? 

 

As Trump said we all need to meet our obligations on defence spending and he is right , this country has a joke navy and the army not much better , NATO is failing to protect without American mass spending and Trump has made it clear that he will scale back NATO spending by the US 

 

Putin isn't the issue .... he is actually the solution , he has held Russia together and has done an amazing job , yes a crook and yes a mad man at times but better the devil you know , we should embrace him and bring him to the table .... 

 

if we went to war and had to conscript looks at the fecking state of our kids they couldn't fight a war ! But looks at the Russian mobs in the summer and you can see Russia could mobilise a very  serous mob quickly , with no America to protect us they would waltz through Europe 

 

war is futile , get Putin to london and make a big deal of him and change the world by making friends ...enemy's never make a positive change to any world order !!! 

It shouldn't fall on America to protect us, but the fact is they have been and if

they suddenly stop it will leave a void. As for the rest I'm not sure if it's a wind up

but I do like the idea of rating our military fighting capability on how tasty our football

hooligans are. We must have missed our chance for world domination in the 80's.

[GaelicFox]

22 minutes ago, Spiritwalker said:

It shouldn't fall on America to protect us, but the fact is they have been and if

they suddenly stop it will leave a void. As for the rest I'm not sure if it's a wind up

but I do like the idea of rating our military fighting capability on how tasty our football

hooligans are. We must have missed our chance for world domination in the 80's.

Our military is a joke .... and getting worse 

 

my point was what the feck could we conscript?  look around buddy , fat lasy idle kids everywhere with no life skills ,lazy parents and a system that's incubating failure ! Visit Russia and have a look around ...it's a "fittest survive" nation .... dog eat dog and as such it's a nation now of fighting men 

 

 

we need America to protect our interests , how pathetic is that ! 

 

Putin is a national hero and an international leader , he should be admired and respected for piecing Russia back together and challenging the American/CIA NeoCon agenda 

 

I actually think the world is a better place for having putin in place ....

 

London need to reach out to putin and trump and May needs to be the feminine hand in that new relationship as it starts to develop and it will develop , trump is a business man he doesn't want war he wants jobs and security for American blue collar workers  

 

 

[Great Boos Up]

26 minutes ago, GaelicFox said:

Our military is a joke .... and getting worse 

 

my point was what the feck could we conscript?  look around buddy , fat lasy idle kids everywhere with no life skills ,lazy parents and a system that's incubating failure ! Visit Russia and have a look around ...it's a "fittest survive" nation .... dog eat dog and as such it's a nation now of fighting men 

 

 

we need America to protect our interests , how pathetic is that ! 

 

Putin is a national hero and an international leader , he should be admired and respected for piecing Russia back together and challenging the American/CIA NeoCon agenda 

 

I actually think the world is a better place for having putin in place ....

 

London need to reach out to putin and trump and May needs to be the feminine hand in that new relationship as it starts to develop and it will develop , trump is a business man he doesn't want war he wants jobs and security for American blue collar workers  

 

 

All true IMO. In military terms we could be bitch slapped by so many countries, but English people still believe we are mightier than the likes of Iran.

[GaelicFox]

15 minutes ago, Great Boos Up said:

All true IMO. In military terms we could be bitch slapped by so many countries, but English people still believe we are mightier than the likes of Iran.

Delusion really ... the reality is we can't defend ourselves against any major nation  

[sm1]

51 minutes ago, GaelicFox said:

Our military is a joke .... and getting worse 

 

my point was what the feck could we conscript?  look around buddy , fat lasy idle kids everywhere with no life skills ,lazy parents and a system that's incubating failure ! Visit Russia and have a look around ...it's a "fittest survive" nation .... dog eat dog and as such it's a nation now of fighting men 

 

 

we need America to protect our interests , how pathetic is that ! 

 

Putin is a national hero and an international leader , he should be admired and respected for piecing Russia back together and challenging the American/CIA NeoCon agenda 

 

I actually think the world is a better place for having putin in place ....

 

London need to reach out to putin and trump and May needs to be the feminine hand in that new relationship as it starts to develop and it will develop , trump is a business man he doesn't want war he wants jobs and security for American blue collar workers  

 

 

Its unfortunate that most people can't see this.

[The Doctor]

10 hours ago, Webbo said:

Estonia is 1 of the few countries that does put the 2% into defence. It is a percentage, nobody is expecting small countries to spend the same as America.

It was quite obviously an example, but way to miss the point (that the chunks of Eastern Europe that Putin is eyeing up can't afford to protect themselves and need a strong NATO or assistance from Europe).

 

8 hours ago, MattP said:

But there is no evidence whatsoever he's unstable, it was just a myth peddled by Clinton during the campaign and no one really except her own clique believed it, looking at her record compared to his no one could seriously argue that he's not the safer option when it comes to global conflict.

 

What really has shocked me in the last few weeks is how people who have been telling us for years that World peace was little to do with NATO (some even during the referendum saying it was more to do with the EU ) are now actually worried about it, you can't make it up. The same people who have marched for a weak and isolationist America are now telling us we all need to panic because of it.

 

As has been mentioned, all Trump is doing is something a US leader should have done a long time ago, starting to maek sure countries pay their way instead of hiding behind the US, let's hope he continues to turn up the heat on mainland Europe.

The man obviously has narcissistic personality disorder, and banned reporters from covering his conferences for writing critical articles about him. A man with that thin a skin is a danger.

 

theres a time for isolationism and now is not that time. Don't get me wrong, normally I'd be glad to see America winding it back in a bit, but with a man increasingly resembling a Bond villain testing the boundaries of annexing ex-soviet land, and a rabble of sociopaths trying to ethnically cleanse the Middle East, it's not a world that can handle isolationism from major forces like the yanks

[GaelicFox]

10 minutes ago, sm1 said:

Its unfortunate that most people can't see this.

Not allowed to see it buddy ...most people aren't like us they won't go and find enough independent info to make a truly informed opinion 

[GaelicFox]

11 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

It was quite obviously an example, but way to miss the point (that the chunks of Eastern Europe that Putin is eyeing up can't afford to protect themselves and need a strong NATO or assistance from Europe).

 

The man obviously has narcissistic personality disorder, and banned reporters from covering his conferences for writing critical articles about him. A man with that thin a skin is a danger.

 

theres a time for isolationism and now is not that time. Don't get me wrong, normally I'd be glad to see America winding it back in a bit, but with a man increasingly resembling a Bond villain testing the boundaries of annexing ex-soviet land, and a rabble of sociopaths trying to ethnically cleanse the Middle East, it's not a world that can handle isolationism from major forces like the yanks

 

The man obviously has narcissistic personality disorder

 

 

[davieG]

9 hours ago, GaelicFox said:

Not allowed to see it buddy ...most people aren't like us they won't go and find enough independent info to make a truly informed opinion 

Everything you write to describe Putin sounds very similar to the rhetoric  that used to be written about Hitler.

 

Worrying.

[GaelicFox]

53 minutes ago, davieG said:

Everything you write to describe Putin sounds very similar to the rhetoric  that used to be written about Hitler.

 

Worrying.

Comments like that are dangerous and unfounded and typical of the poorly informed western agenda focused media fed mind. 

 

Tony Blair killed more people than 10 Putins would ever manage to Kill the NeoCon Bush inspired wars were right up there with Hitler's campaigns ! 

 

We had a Jnr Hitler running this country in last 10 years ! 

 

the neocons are saying that the problem is Putin: "He is Hitler". Get rid of Putin and the Russian people will welcome the U.S. as liberators, they say.

 

The NeoCon party of war promises that this time it will work, once Putin is gone: Eurasia will blossom with Western democracy and neoliberal capitalism.

 

Why should we believe the neocons this time? They are asking us to take an insane gamble with the future of the planet.

 

They have failed in the Gulf , failed in central and South America and they will fail in Russia 

 

Trump's election is changing the world and hopefully he is strong enough to empty Washington of the NeoCon Devils that have plagued this world 

 

 

[davieG]

21 minutes ago, GaelicFox said:

Comments like that are dangerous and unfounded and typical of the poorly informed western agenda focused media fed mind. 

 

Tony Blair killed more people than 10 Putins would ever manage to Kill the NeoCon Bush inspired wars were right up there with Hitler's campaigns ! 

 

We had a Jnr Hitler running this country in last 10 years ! 

 

the neocons are saying that the problem is Putin: "He is Hitler". Get rid of Putin and the Russian people will welcome the U.S. as liberators, they say.

 

The NeoCon party of war promises that this time it will work, once Putin is gone: Eurasia will blossom with Western democracy and neoliberal capitalism.

 

Why should we believe the neocons this time? They are asking us to take an insane gamble with the future of the planet.

 

They have failed in the Gulf , failed in central and South America and they will fail in Russia 

 

Trump's election is changing the world and hopefully he is strong enough to empty Washington of the NeoCon Devils that have plagued this world 

 

 

Dangerous maybe, unfounded? well I'm  just telling you that the same lines you wrote about Putin sound very similar to ones they wrote about Hitler, whether there's  any actual similarities in intent I don't  know, they didn't  know what Hitler  had in mind and I sure don't know what Putin thinks underhis public facade.

 

But then I have a inherent distrust in all politics built up over a lifetime of observing  them.

[GaelicFox]

19 minutes ago, davieG said:

Dangerous maybe, unfounded? well I'm  just telling you that the same lines you wrote about Putin sound very similar to ones they wrote about Hitler, whether there's  any actual similarities in intent I don't  know, they didn't  know what Hitler  had in mind and I sure don't know what Putin thinks underhis public facade.

 

But then I have a inherent distrust in all politics built up over a lifetime of observing  them.

Totally unfounded 

 

Putin is obsessed by wealth and power , he clings to power to protect his wealth and position 

 

trump can do business with a man like this , sanctions don't work , they didn't work against Germany ,we we need to stop demonising Russia and Putin and sit down and work together 

 

[Bryn]

People are scared, their traditional values are being eroded and it is a perfect storm for a toxic brand of nationalism to arise. It's understandable but I don't think globalism can be hidden from, and I doubt that there will be any kind of peace and prosperity in the world unless cooperation, empathy and education, even if it comes at personal cost, are prioritised.

[The Doctor]

On 12/11/2016 at 22:14, GaelicFox said:

 

The man obviously has narcissistic personality disorder

 

 

Quote

 

Narcissistic personality disorder 

 

A. A perverse pattern of grandiosity (in fantasy or behaviour), need for admiration, and lack of empathy, beginning by early adulthood and present in a variety of contexts, as indicated by five (or more) of the following:

 

1. Has a grandiose sense of self importance (e.g. exaggerates achievements and talents, expects to be recognised as superior without commensurate achievements)

 

2. Is preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty or ideal love.

 

3. Believes that he or she is special and unique and can only be understood by, or should associate with, other special or high status people  (or institutions)

 

4. requires excessive admiration 

 

5. has a sense of entitlement, I.e. unreasonable expectations of especially favourable treatment or automatic compliance with his or her expectations.

 

6. is interpersonally exploitative I.e. takes advantage of others to achieve his or her own ends.

 

7. Lacks empathy: is unwilling to recognise or identify with the feelings of needs of others.

 

8. Is often envious of others or believes that others are envious of him or her

 

9. Shows arrogant, haughty behaviours or attitudes

You'd be hard pressed to find one of those he doesn't tick based on his public persona

[GaelicFox]

6 hours ago, The Doctor said:

You'd be hard pressed to find one of those he doesn't tick based on his public persona

Buddy I worked with PD for years , you would be hard pressed to find any successful politician or businessman with some or many of those traits , infact I'd say Trump would score very lowly in an assessment.