General Election, June 8th

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

We have the fastest growth in the G7 - maybe the two things are connected? 

 

I admire the morality of some of the things in Labour's manifesto but if France lowers it's corporation tax to what Macron says we may as well help firms pack up on the first day they take office.

 

The cut in Corporation tax raised about 21 billion extra for the treasury (according to the Sunday politics) so you can see why people are extremely doubtful that the rise will create anything.

 

I don't see any point whatsoever comparing it with Thatcher, that was over 30 years ago, it's a different world now and it's never been easier for a company or person to uproot themselves if they feel they are being punished. 

 

Anyway just a couple of hours until we see how this is all going to be paid for but if they are assuming no business or individual is going to change their model I think you are in a fantasy land, if you did win I bet we'll have a record number of people who will be earning £79,500 a year though. 

Our growth is a result of increases to personal debt, not corporate productivity. What you're not mentioning is that British productivity is 15% less than the G7 average (over 10% less than Italy; over 20% less than France and the US; over 25% less than germany) so a smaller increase can be a higher % growth. 

 

If corporations chose based purely to deal with taxation then they wouldn't be based in France or the uk. 

[Alf Bentley]

21 minutes ago, MattP said:

We have the fastest growth in the G7 - maybe the two things are connected? 

 

 

Germany now seems to be ahead on growth: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-brexit-fastest-growing-g7-economy-a7595111.html

 

The Bank of England has also just downgraded its growth forecast....only a forecast, but still not a good sign.

 

Here's a decent overview: https://qz.com/971381/which-g7-economies-are-growing-the-fastest/

 

The outlook sounds a bit worrying....

 

"First-quarter GDP growth is often weak (paywall), but the US, UK, and France still managed to underperform low expectations. US economic growth slowed to 0.7% at an annualized rate in the first quarter of this year, the slowest rate in three years. Measured the same way, first-quarter GDP growth in the UK was 1.1%, down from 2.6% in the previous quarter, and 1% in France, down from 1.8%."

 

"The UK, which has been the fastest or second-fastest growing economy the past three years, might now be set for a more permanent slide down the rankings. After surprising economists in the second half of 2016 with its resilience after the Brexit vote, the British economy is starting to show the strain. The Bank of England expected first-quarter GDP to grow by 0.5% versus the fourth quarter of 2016. Instead, it expanded by 0.3% quarter on quarter.

Like the US, a slowdown in retail spending is dragging down the UK economy. After the Brexit vote the pound plummeted against other major currencies, which caused a sharp rise in inflation. Combined with stagnant wage growth, Brits are now experiencing negative real earnings growth. With lower purchasing power, consumer spending has taken a tumble. The latest retail sales data confirmed how fast prices have risen in recent months, and how quickly Brits have closed their wallets in response".

 

 

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Our growth is a result of increases to personal debt, not corporate productivity. What you're not mentioning is that British productivity is 15% less than the G7 average (over 10% less than Italy; over 20% less than France and the US; over 25% less than germany) so a smaller increase can be a higher % growth. 

 

If corporations chose based purely to deal with taxation then they wouldn't be based in France or the uk. 

Do you have any figures for the personal debt claim? Most people tell me banks are still as tight as anything when it comes to borrowing.

 

I do hope you are right companies will stay to pay all these things, the consequences if you aren't would be disastrous in everything from job losses to the money we take in to spend on things like the NHS.

 

I'm not worried now as Labour isn't winning this, but it's certainly possible they could win with a different front bench on a similar manifesto in 2022.

 

Tory manifesto is going to be far more interesting as for the first time since 2001 we are looking at the blueprint for the country over the next five years.

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Germany now seems to be ahead on growth: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-brexit-fastest-growing-g7-economy-a7595111.html

 

The Bank of England has also just downgraded its growth forecast....only a forecast, but still not a good sign.

 

Here's a decent overview: https://qz.com/971381/which-g7-economies-are-growing-the-fastest/

 

The outlook sounds a bit worrying....

 

"First-quarter GDP growth is often weak (paywall), but the US, UK, and France still managed to underperform low expectations. US economic growth slowed to 0.7% at an annualized rate in the first quarter of this year, the slowest rate in three years. Measured the same way, first-quarter GDP growth in the UK was 1.1%, down from 2.6% in the previous quarter, and 1% in France, down from 1.8%."

 

"The UK, which has been the fastest or second-fastest growing economy the past three years, might now be set for a more permanent slide down the rankings. After surprising economists in the second half of 2016 with its resilience after the Brexit vote, the British economy is starting to show the strain. The Bank of England expected first-quarter GDP to grow by 0.5% versus the fourth quarter of 2016. Instead, it expanded by 0.3% quarter on quarter.

Like the US, a slowdown in retail spending is dragging down the UK economy. After the Brexit vote the pound plummeted against other major currencies, which caused a sharp rise in inflation. Combined with stagnant wage growth, Brits are now experiencing negative real earnings growth. With lower purchasing power, consumer spending has taken a tumble. The latest retail sales data confirmed how fast prices have risen in recent months, and how quickly Brits have closed their wallets in response".

Apologies, I knew I should have checked as soon as I posted that!

[Guest]

Is it just me that finds it ironic that brexiteer tories are using the remain campaign's project fear to try to explain their voting intentions?

[Guest]

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cardsloans/article-3539847/Household-debt-binge-hits-pre-crisis-levels-says-Bank-England.html

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/money/2017/mar/31/uk-households-savings-fall-record-low-warning-sign-economy

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/29/three-charts-show-britains-borrowing-binge-isnt-growth-credit/amp/

[Guest]

The evidence on this page is clear - growth is still stuck near 0% with inflation, wage stagnation and near record debt levels meaning consumer confidence is falling. If the tories win and don't change tack we're heading for an almighty financial crash.

[Webbo]

4 minutes ago, toddybad said:

The evidence on this page is clear - growth is still stuck near 0% with inflation, wage stagnation and near record debt levels meaning consumer confidence is falling. If the tories win and don't change tack we're heading for an almighty financial crash.

What evidence is there of 0% growth and record inflation? You're just making this up.

[Guest MattP]

33 minutes ago, toddybad said:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cardsloans/article-3539847/Household-debt-binge-hits-pre-crisis-levels-says-Bank-England.html

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/money/2017/mar/31/uk-households-savings-fall-record-low-warning-sign-economy

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/29/three-charts-show-britains-borrowing-binge-isnt-growth-credit/amp/

So it's basically finance on cars? I seriously doubt that can be the whole reason for the growth of a country. (You can also see by the graph on the first link it's nowhere near 2003-4 levels which was far more to do with the crash than the levels years after, it wasn't immediate)

 

Although people shouldn't be too surprised to see some sort of increase in borrowing whilst interest rates are so low, here's also a quote from one of the articles.

 

Quote

The Bank of England has been keen to play down fears that the economic recovery is built on growing levels of debt, but has warned that levels remain ‘elevated’, and that indebted households remain more vulnerable.

 

[Guest MattP]

John McDonnell is currently having a total car crash on Radio 4 - He's got the deficit figure wrong by 20billion and just came out with the classic line of "Many people from the Communist party have joined Labour recently" in response to the guy who is running Labour's campaign (Andrew Murray) only left it in December.

 

He's now absolutely hopeless in trying to explain where the money is coming from for the re-nationalisation of the National Grid, it's not even 9am and the costing is falling apart. Who would have guessed?

 

I get the feeling today could be quite entertaining. Even Andrew Neil is doing the Tuesday Daily Politics specially to pose the questions.

[The Guvnor]

11 minutes ago, MattP said:

John McDonnell is currently having a total car crash on Radio 4 - He's got the deficit figure wrong by 20billion and just came out with the classic line of "Many people from the Communist party have joined Labour recently" in response to the guy who is running Labour's campaign (Andrew Murray) only left it in December.

 

He's now absolutely hopeless in trying to explain where the money is coming from for the re-nationalisation of the National Grid, it's not even 9am and the costing is falling apart. Who would have guessed?

 

I get the feeling today could be quite entertaining. Even Andrew Neil is doing the Tuesday Daily Politics specially to pose the questions.

 Picked up Diane Abbotts notes by mistake?

[Guest MattP]

This is the shadow chancellor, on the day of the launch of his manifesto.

 

I can take people saying Angela Raynor shouldn't know about class sizes but a man is his position not even knowing the deficit? It's quite frankly beyond belief.

[Guest MattP]

You can see what's happened here as well, someone has googled it quickly.

 

If you search "British deficit" this comes up -

Quote

The British Government debt is rising due to a gap between revenue and expenditure. Total government revenue in the fiscal year 2015/16 was projected to be £673 billion, whereas total expenditure was estimated at £742 billion. Therefore, the total deficit was £69 billion.

 

[Guest Foxin_mad]

1 hour ago, toddybad said:

The evidence on this page is clear - growth is still stuck near 0% with inflation, wage stagnation and near record debt levels meaning consumer confidence is falling. If the tories win and don't change tack we're heading for an almighty financial crash.

And if Labour get in raise taxes and try to spend billions they don't have we will be heading for an even more almighty financial crash. Socialism just does not work period. Anyone name a successful Socialist country (not anywhere in Scandinavia), Corbyn always praises Venezuela!!  

 

Private companies will not pay high taxes and invest in training and increased employment, they will move to other countries where one or both are cheaper.

 

Rich individuals will not pay high taxes, they will just move to a tax haven.

 

Governments will be far more successful at collecting tax if it is a low as possible, less people will try to avoid it, it will attract employment creating business and entrepreneurs they will invest profits in training and job creation.

 

Labours policies are extremely bad for business there will have to be job cuts, a rise in corporation tax and the minimum wage is no sustainable. Labour will have to fund their projects on more borrowing, there will be no funding.

[davieG]

2 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

And if Labour get in raise taxes and try to spend billions they don't have we will be heading for an even more almighty financial crash. Socialism just does work period. Anyone name a successful Socialist country (not anywhere in Scandinavia), Corbyn always praises Venezuela!!  

 

Private companies will not pay high taxes and invest in training and increased employment, they will move to other countries where one or both are cheaper.

 

Rich individuals will not pay high taxes, they will just move to a tax haven.

 

Governments will be far more successful at collecting tax if it is a low as possible, less people will try to avoid it, it will attract employment creating business and entrepreneurs they will invest profits in training and job creation.

 

Labours policies are extremely bad for business there will have to be job cuts, a rise in corporation tax and the minimum wage is no sustainable. Labour will have to fund their projects on more borrowing, there will be no funding.

There's not much of that going on and frankly it's been poor for decades and a fair number seem reluctant to pay their taxes anyway.

 

 

[Guest Foxin_mad]

8 minutes ago, davieG said:

There's not much of that going on and frankly it's been poor for decades and a fair number seem reluctant to pay their taxes anyway.

 

 

Tax receipts have gone up with lower corporation tax the last few years, and will continue to do so, that's a fact.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/ca3e5bd2-2a7e-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7

 

There are lots of companies that train and invest and there is a damn site more now than there was in 2010. Tax avoidance is reducing as the incentive to avoid and pay accountants to find loopholes has reduced.

 

There are problem multinational companies like Apple, Google, Ebay, Starbucks etc. an international effort needs to be made on these companies and countries such as Junker's Luxembourg need to be held to account about the sweet tax deals they arranged.

 

I wonder how many hypocrites at the Corbyn rallies are holding a cup of Starbucks and taking selfies on their iPhone? There is a choice to boycott companies with questionable tax practices, but very few people seem to do it!!

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, toddybad said:

The evidence on this page is clear - growth is still stuck near 0% with inflation, wage stagnation and near record debt levels meaning consumer confidence is falling. If the tories win and don't change tack we're heading for an almighty financial crash.

 

1 hour ago, Webbo said:

What evidence is there of 0% growth and record inflation? You're just making this up.

 

He didn't say "record inflation", did he? He said "with inflation, wage stagnation and near record debt levels".

There has been a sharp rise in inflation, real pay is currently declining and both public and private debt are extremely high by historic standards.

 

Admittedly, "growth near 0%" is a bit of an exaggeration. I think the figures I quoted were 1.1% per annum & 0.3% in the last quarter (both lower than expected). 

UK growth was slightly better than the EU & US, but is now deteriorating.....no doubt Brexit and all those fantastic new trade deals will give us a major economic boost, eh? 

 

Welcome home, by the way, and hope you enjoyed your hols. 

[Jon the Hat]

18 hours ago, Buce said:

 

No, integrity is great.

 

Full stop. 

 

 

I didn't word that very well.  Of course integrity is great, but it can mean you stick to ideas which are not fit to run a country.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

 

They really shouldn't have presented it as a 'Little Red Book' 

[Sharpe's Fox]

 

 

5 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

They really shouldn't have presented it as a 'Little Red Book' 

[Guest MattP]

The crowd just booed a journalist at the manifesto launch who asked a question about immigration. (To be fair to he Jeremy told the crowd off and to show some respect)

 

It appears there is no costings at all about the re-nationalisation on anything from the National Grid to the Railways as this is in a "capital expenditure" fund, now I see the plan all along, it's easy to fully cost something if you don't bother to mention all of the things you need to spend a lot of money on.

 

Can see this developing as the day goes on.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

 

They booed Laura K didn't they Matt... it was more of quiet grumble on the immigration question posed by the Channel 5 reporter before that.

 

Here's link to the manifesto by the way... all 128 pages. The costings, are not in this, that's a separate document I'll look for in a bit.

 

http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/Labour Manifesto 2017.pdf

 

After a skim through, there's some things of interest in there, football gets a page mention towards the back, the idea of providing access to education for life and being a national service is also a worthy premise - but it feels all too much, almost as if those writing it knew they won't be getting into power to implement this. 

 

The things being touted... there's no way all of that can be done in a 5 year term, especially with Brexit to deal with, which therefore takes away a large amount of credibility from the plans even before you decide where you stand on the costings. 

 

I'm sure most that bother looking at this with an open mind will probably feel the same - but the quandary is whether the alternatives are any better (my prediction, no!)

[The Floyd]

Just now, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

They booed Laura K didn't they Matt... it was more of quiet grumble on the immigration question posed by the Channel 5 reporter before that.

 

Here's link to the manifesto by the way... all 128 pages. The costings, are not in this, that's a separate document I'll look for in a bit.

 

http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/Labour Manifesto 2017.pdf

 

After a skim through, there's some things of interest in there, football gets a page mention towards the back, the idea of providing access to education for life and being a national service is also a worthy premise - but it feels all too much, almost as if those writing it knew they won't be getting into power to implement this. 

 

The things being touted... there's no way all of that can be done in a 5 year term, especially with Brexit to deal with, which therefore takes away a large amount of credibility from the plans even before you decide where you stand on the costings. 

 

No idea how you got the impression that the crowd were not booing the C5 reporter.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

 

Becaaue they always boo Laura K!

 

And it was as Laura got asked for her question.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

 

Costings document 

 

http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/Funding Britain's Future.PDF