Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Rogstanley]

4 minutes ago, Webbo said:

The point was that a single currency amongst such wildly different economies is a mad idea. Europe would have been out of recession much sooner if the Southern European economies could have devalued their currency. Germany on the other hand benefits massively from an undervalued currency. See how our exports have increased since the £ fell.

So if a devalued currency leads to higher wages why have UK wages fallen since the brexit vote devalued our currency?

[Alf Bentley]

12 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Good old Mrs Thatcher. 

 

 

....and good old John, Tony and Gordon, too?

[Webbo]

Just now, Rogstanley said:

So if a devalued currency leads to higher wages why have UK wages fallen since the brexit vote devalued our currency?

You're missing the point. Higher business levels lead to higher wages. Wages in the UK grew 2.2 % last year, which is fairly decent, inflation is at 3% but all the indications are is that should start to fall in the very near future.

[Webbo]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

....and good old John, Tony and Gordon, too?

John definitely, Tony and Gordon? Weren't they just closet tories?

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, Webbo said:

John definitely, Tony and Gordon? Weren't they just closet tories?

 

If so, it looks as if the closet Tories were more economically literate than the real Tories who followed - Call Me Dave, Georgie Boy or Strong & Stable Theresa....  

[Rogstanley]

6 minutes ago, Webbo said:

You're missing the point. Higher business levels lead to higher wages. Wages in the UK grew 2.2 % last year, which is fairly decent, inflation is at 3% but all the indications are is that should start to fall in the very near future.

UK business profits are currently at record highs but wages are falling so it's clearly incorrect to say higher 'business levels' mean higher wages. 

[Innovindil]

1 minute ago, Rogstanley said:

UK business profits are currently at record highs but wages are falling so it's clearly incorrect to say higher 'business levels' mean higher wages. 

.... 

 

Wages are rising. 

 

They are falling in comparison to inflation. 

 

It's not the same thing. 

[Webbo]

Just now, Rogstanley said:

UK business profits are currently at record highs but wages are falling so it's clearly incorrect to say higher 'business levels' mean higher wages. 

No they're not. According to the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/sep/13/pound-one-year-high-uk-jobs-report-pay-squeeze-business-live they grew 2.1 % in the 12 months upto September, I believe it was 2.2 % in the 12 months upto October but I can't find those figures.

 

Businesses have to pay the market rate and if cheap foreign labour is suppressing that rate that's not their fault, nor is inflation.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Webbo said:

The Queen only pays tax on a voluntary basis anyway so it's not tax avoidance.

 

 

Anyhoo;

 

Hard Brexit need not make us worse off https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/05/hard-brexit-need-not-make-us-worse-off

By publishing that letter the Guardian has proven the point I make that it is not as closed a system as you believe.

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

.... 

 

Wages are rising. 

 

They are falling in comparison to inflation. 

 

It's not the same thing. 

 

8 minutes ago, Webbo said:

No they're not. According to the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/sep/13/pound-one-year-high-uk-jobs-report-pay-squeeze-business-live they grew 2.1 % in the 12 months upto September, I believe it was 2.2 % in the 12 months upto October but I can't find those figures.

 

Businesses have to pay the market rate and if cheap foreign labour is suppressing that rate that's not their fault, nor is inflation.

Wages are rising just over 2%.

Inflation is around 3%.

Wages are falling in real terms.

[Rogstanley]

10 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

.... 

 

Wages are rising. 

 

They are falling in comparison to inflation. 

 

It's not the same thing. 

 

7 minutes ago, Webbo said:

No they're not. According to the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/sep/13/pound-one-year-high-uk-jobs-report-pay-squeeze-business-live they grew 2.1 % in the 12 months upto September, I believe it was 2.2 % in the 12 months upto October but I can't find those figures.

 

Businesses have to pay the market rate and if cheap foreign labour is suppressing that rate that's not their fault, nor is inflation.

Any sensible discussion on the subject of wage growth doesn't just ignore inflation. If you need me to add the word 'real then fine but the point remains, UK businesses are making record profits while (real) wages are falling, so it's obviously incorrect to say higher 'business levels' leads to higher wages. 

 

Repeating myself, the argument for cheap foreign labour suppressing (real) wages only stacks up for unskilled and lower skilled work. We're seeing wages falling (in real terms) across the whole range of skill levels except the very top earners.

 

Also if there was a huge oversupply of cheap labour leading to suppressed wages you'd also get high unemployment. You can't have your cake and eat it. How can unemployment be low at the same time as there being oversupply in the labour market?

[Webbo]

4 minutes ago, toddybad said:

By publishing that letter the Guardian has proven the point I make that it is not as closed a system as you believe.

Could you rephrase that , I don't know what you mean?

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Could you rephrase that , I don't know what you mean?

You often suggest the Guardian is left wing with no fairness to their arguments, yet they've published a letter by a right wing think tank.

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, Rogstanley said:

 

Any sensible discussion on the subject of wage growth doesn't just ignore inflation. If you need me to add the word 'real then fine but the point remains, UK businesses are making record profits while (real) wages are falling, so it's obviously incorrect to say higher 'business levels' leads to higher wages. 

 

Repeating myself, the argument for cheap foreign labour suppressing (real) wages only stacks up for unskilled and lower skilled work. We're seeing wages falling (in real terms) across the whole range of skill levels except the very top earners.

 

Also if there was a huge oversupply of cheap labour leading to suppressed wages you'd also get high unemployment. You can't have your cake and eat it. How can unemployment be low at the same time as there being oversupply in the labour market?

Have you ever heard of "supply and demand". If there was shortage of Labour wages would either grow more strongly to attract the necessary workers or businesses would be forced to invest in equipment/machinery to increase productivity. The fact that we're averaging over 300,000 immigrants a year means that there is less pressure on wages. Obviously low wages are good for business in the short term but the lack of productivity growth will bite us in the arse eventually.

[Webbo]

9 minutes ago, toddybad said:

You often suggest the Guardian is left wing with no fairness to their arguments, yet they've published a letter by a right wing think tank.

And tax avoiders.

 

Look, I don't care if you read the Guardian, you/they have the same right to their biases/prejudices as anyone else. Just don't look down your nose at people who read other papers and don't assume that The Guardian tells the gospel truth. Because I don't believe they or any other media outlet do.

[Rogstanley]

5 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Have you ever heard of "supply and demand". If there was shortage of Labour wages would either grow more strongly to attract the necessary workers or businesses would be forced to invest in equipment/machinery to increase productivity. The fact that we're averaging over 300,000 immigrants a year means that there is less pressure on wages. Obviously low wages are good for business in the short term but the lack of productivity growth will bite us in the arse eventually.

Yes I have heard of supply and demand. Wages would potentially fall if there was a large oversupply of labour. If there was a large oversupply of labour you would also have higher unemployment. You can't have both a large oversupply of labour and low unemployment. People can't be both employed (contributing to low unemployment) and unemployed (contributing to a labour oversupply) at the same time. So which is it? Do we have too many unemployed people driving down wages or not?

[Webbo]

Just now, Rogstanley said:

Yes I have heard of supply and demand. Wages would potentially fall if there was a large oversupply of labour. If there was a large oversupply of labour you would also have higher unemployment. You can't have both a large oversupply of labour and low unemployment. People can't be both employed (contributing to low unemployment) and unemployed (contributing to a labour oversupply) at the same time. So which is it? Do we have too many unemployed people driving down wages or not?

If we had a shortage of labour, wages would have to rise. We don't have a shortage of labour because we've 300,000 immigrants coming here every year. It's not that hard to grasp is it?

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Webbo said:

And tax avoiders.

 

Look, I don't care if you read the Guardian, you/they have the same right to their biases/prejudices as anyone else. Just don't look down your nose at people who read other papers and don't assume that The Guardian tells the gospel truth. Because I don't believe they or any other media outlet do.

Oh no I don't either, it just fits my world view better than the right wing papers - aside from all the PC nonsense.

 

And yes, even newspapers making use of foreign tax havens are wrong.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Webbo said:

If we had a shortage of labour, wages would have to rise. We don't have a shortage of labour because we've 300,000 immigrants coming here every year. It's not that hard to grasp is it?

Whether you're right or not is rather a moot point as neither government nor business will allow immigrant numbers to decline significantly.

[Rogstanley]

6 minutes ago, Webbo said:

If we had a shortage of labour, wages would have to rise. We don't have a shortage of labour because we've 300,000 immigrants coming here every year. It's not that hard to grasp is it?

It's this sort of blatant intellectual dishonesty that makes Tories commited to never questioning the daily mail's opinions so frustrating.

 

I'm just putting to you the obvious juxtaposition between the idea of low unemployment existing at the same time as a large oversupply of labour.

 

If you're not honest enough to even acknowledge the problem never mind tackle it then it's pointless carrying on the discussion really.

Edited 6 November 2017 by Rogstanley

[Webbo]

Just now, toddybad said:

Whether you're right or not is rather a moot point as neither government nor business will allow immigrant numbers to decline significantly.

Then we can vote for a different govt, we can't do that if we're still in the EU.

[Webbo]

Just now, Rogstanley said:

It's this sort if blatant intellectual dishonesty that makes Tories commited to never reconsidering the daily mail's opinions so frustrating.

 

I'm just putting to you the obvious juxtaposition between the idea of low unemployment existing at the same time as a large oversupply of labour.

 

If you're not honest enough to even acknowledge the problem never mind tackle it then it's pointless carrying on the discussion really.

Okay, instead of oversupply, lets call it ever increasing labour force. Happy now? The argument still stands.

 

 

PS kudos for the Daily Mail reference, made you really sound intelligent.

[Innovindil]

13 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

It's this sort of blatant intellectual dishonesty that makes Tories commited to never questioning the daily mail's opinions so frustrating.

 

I'm just putting to you the obvious juxtaposition between the idea of low unemployment existing at the same time as a large oversupply of labour.

 

If you're not honest enough to even acknowledge the problem never mind tackle it then it's pointless carrying on the discussion really.

Not entirely true. Some companies hire directly from outside the UK. Last I heard, a large portion of migrants come here with firm job offers already. Hence how you can have an over supply of labour while simultaneously having low unemployment. 

 

Edit, managed to find some stats (old) 

 

Of the 290,000 people who immigrated for work in the year to September 2015, almost 60 per cent had already secured a job and the share rose to two thirds for Romanians and Bulgarians.

Edited 6 November 2017 by Innovindil

[Rogstanley]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

Okay, instead of oversupply, lets call it ever increasing labour force. Happy now? The argument still stands.

 

 

PS kudos for the Daily Mail reference, made you really sound intelligent.

It did, didn't it? I'm happy with it.

 

Maybe I'm wrong but the idea of taking a situation where you've got record business profits existing at the same time as wages have fallen (in real terms) for ten years and then blaming immigrants strikes me as something right off the front page of the daily mail.

 

One more time, for wages to fall as a result of oversupply of labour, you must have an oversupply of labour. If you have an oversupply of labour, you can't have low unemployment. You can have one, or the other, but you can't have both.

 

Didn't Germany accept a million migrants over the last couple of years anyway? How have their wages remained so strong? More to the point now did UK wages rise so strongly pre-2007 when immigration was just as high?

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, Rogstanley said:

It did, didn't it? I'm happy with it.

 

Maybe I'm wrong but the idea of taking a situation where you've got record business profits existing at the same time as wages have fallen (in real terms) for ten years and then blaming immigrants strikes me as something right off the front page of the daily mail.

 

One more time, for wages to fall as a result of oversupply of labour, you must have an oversupply of labour. If you have an oversupply of labour, you can't have low unemployment. You can have one, or the other, but you can't have both.

 

Didn't Germany accept a million migrants over the last couple of years anyway? How have their wages remained so strong? More to the point now did UK wages rise so strongly pre-2007 when immigration was just as high?

Simple things please simple people.

 

We've moved on from the term oversupply so why are you repeating it? As for pre 2007, we were in a worldwide boom and the Labour govt was putting an extra 900,000 people on the public payroll and giving them all a good payrise. That one of the reason why we're in such debt.