Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Rogstanley]

3 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Simple things please simple people.

 

We've moved on from the term oversupply so why are you repeating it? As for pre 2007, we were in a worldwide boom and the Labour govt was putting an extra 900,000 people on the public payroll and giving them all a good payrise. That one of the reason why we're in such debt.

 you can't just move on from terms because they don't suit your argument.

 

This is getting a bit ridiculous. 

 

To summarise, I've asked you how every comparable country in the EU has achieved significantly higher wage growth than the UK over ten years, and after attempting to attribute it first to an erroneous belief that southern European economies are struggling and then to 'business levels' and having that disproven as well, you've settled on the old faithful of blaming immigrants.

 

I've pointed out that for there to be falling wages as a result of immigration, there must be an oversupply of labour. But there is no significant oversupply of labour if you believe the unemployment statistics. You've responded to that by banning the use of the term oversupply.

 

Is that a fair reflection of where we are at this point?

[Strokes]

5 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

 you can't just move on from terms because they don't suit your argument.

 

This is getting a bit ridiculous. 

 

To summarise, I've asked you how every comparable country in the EU has achieved significantly higher wage growth than the UK over ten years, and after attempting to attribute it first to an erroneous belief that southern European economies are struggling and then to 'business levels' and having that disproven as well, you've settled on the old faithful of blaming immigrants.

 

I've pointed out that for there to be falling wages as a result of immigration, there must be an oversupply of labour. But there is no significant oversupply of labour if you believe the unemployment statistics. You've responded to that by banning the use of the term oversupply.

 

Is that a fair reflection of where we are at this point?

If these immigrants are being recruited direct from their homeland, the oversupply of labour will not show in unemployment figures. Also whilst there are people looking (forcibly so) for work, whereby they were not before there is still an oversupply. 

 

[Webbo]

Just now, Rogstanley said:

 you can't just move on from terms because they don't suit your argument.

 

This is getting a bit ridiculous. 

 

To summarise, I've asked you how every comparable country in the EU has achieved significantly higher wage growth than the UK over ten years, and after attempting to attribute it first to an erroneous belief that southern European economies are struggling and then to 'business levels' and having that disproven as well, you've settled on the old faithful of blaming immigrants.

 

I've pointed out that for there to be falling wages as a result of immigration, there must be an oversupply of labour. But there is no significant oversupply of labour if you believe the unemployment statistics. You've responded to that by banning the use of the term oversupply.

 

Is that a fair reflection of where we are at this point?

Obviously not.

 

Not sure how you can have higher wage growth with 17% unemployment against 4.4%. Maybe the people in work have higher wages, I'll have to take your word for it, but I doubt countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece are better off than us.

 

Pedantry won't win you the argument. You don't like the term oversupply so we've changed it too ever increasing workforce, which I would thought was obvious considering the population has grown by more than 5 million since 2005. Will you agree that the workforce has grown substantially?

[Strokes]

If the UK unskilled/semi skilled wages are to move up, productivity needs to increase because currently it’s very bad. Productivity will only increase if businesses invest in training staff better, if businesses are to feel they need to have to train staff, instead of preferring quantity over quality, the supply of labour needs to be stemmed. If the supply of labour dries up, staff become more valuable and the company needs to pay more, invest more to stop them moving on. 

[Rogstanley]

30 minutes ago, Strokes said:

If these immigrants are being recruited direct from their homeland, the oversupply of labour will not show in unemployment figures. Also whilst there are people looking (forcibly so) for work, whereby they were not before there is still an oversupply. 

 

True, but how many migrants arrive with a job offer? Here is an article that says record numbers of migrants are arriving without jobs.

 

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/26/eu-referendum-lord-ashcroft-poll-finds-nearly-two-thirds-of-vote

[Rogstanley]

31 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Obviously not.

 

Not sure how you can have higher wage growth with 17% unemployment against 4.4%. Maybe the people in work have higher wages, I'll have to take your word for it, but I doubt countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece are better off than us.

 

Pedantry won't win you the argument. You don't like the term oversupply so we've changed it too ever increasing workforce, which I would thought was obvious considering the population has grown by more than 5 million since 2005. Will you agree that the workforce has grown substantially?

Sure, the population has increased and the figures show that record numbers of both British nationals and immigrants are in work. Obviously with an increased population comes an increase in the number of jobs available too.

[Kopfkino]

22 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

 you can't just move on from terms because they don't suit your argument.

 

This is getting a bit ridiculous. 

 

To summarise, I've asked you how every comparable country in the EU has achieved significantly higher wage growth than the UK over ten years, and after attempting to attribute it first to an erroneous belief that southern European economies are struggling and then to 'business levels' and having that disproven as well, you've settled on the old faithful of blaming immigrants.

 

I've pointed out that for there to be falling wages as a result of immigration, there must be an oversupply of labour. But there is no significant oversupply of labour if you believe the unemployment statistics. You've responded to that by banning the use of the term oversupply.

 

Is that a fair reflection of where we are at this point?

No what you've done is created a gross oversimplification and offered up countries that aren't necessarily comparable. I wouldn't say Germany and the UK are comparable (wage setting is different for a start, public sector wages have been stronger in Germany etc) but even so, in recent years there has been little difference between the two, in fact nominal private sector wage growth in the UK has been stronger but persistently higher inflation here v eurozone means real terms haven't necessarily. This year, nominal growth in the UK is similar to that of Germany but as the ONS notes "This year saw the joint highest rise since the economic downturn in 2008, in cash terms. However, higher inflation meant real earnings were down overall on the year for the first time since 2014". 

 

I'm not necessarily agreeing with Webbo in general but of course you can have both if you're part of a system where labour is free to move across countries. In such a system, the local unemployment rate matters less fro wages when you can source labour elsewhere that is willing to accept a wage rate below what a local would in a closed system. We effectively import unemployment from other parts of the EU which means that a low unemployment rate can't drive wages up. In a global system, you have to consider slack across the board and not just locally. 

 

Anyway this point of wage growth is bollocks unless you actually know what you're talking about and nobody on here does as far as I'm aware. A national falling median wage rate (which is what the figures actually show) doesn't mean anyone is actually worse off and nor does improvements elsewhere mean that the population of France is actually better off. 

[Rogstanley]

8 minutes ago, KingGTF said:

No what you've done is created a gross oversimplification and offered up countries that aren't necessarily comparable. I wouldn't say Germany and the UK are comparable (wage setting is different for a start, public sector wages have been stronger in Germany etc) but even so, in recent years there has been little difference between the two, in fact nominal private sector wage growth in the UK has been stronger but persistently higher inflation here v eurozone means real terms haven't necessarily. This year, nominal growth in the UK is similar to that of Germany but as the ONS notes "This year saw the joint highest rise since the economic downturn in 2008, in cash terms. However, higher inflation meant real earnings were down overall on the year for the first time since 2014". 

 

I'm not necessarily agreeing with Webbo in general but of course you can have both if you're part of a system where labour is free to move across countries. In such a system, the local unemployment rate matters less fro wages when you can source labour elsewhere that is willing to accept a wage rate below what a local would in a closed system. We effectively import unemployment from other parts of the EU which means that a low unemployment rate can't drive wages up. In a global system, you have to consider slack across the board and not just locally. 

 

Anyway this point of wage growth is bollocks unless you actually know what you're talking about and nobody on here does as far as I'm aware. A national falling median wage rate (which is what the figures actually show) doesn't mean anyone is actually worse off and nor does improvements elsewhere mean that the population of France is actually better off. 

You can compare like for like professions and see wages are considerably higher in France and Germany as well. 

 

I'm asking Webbo, or anyone really, to prove his claim that us being in the EU is the reason for falling wages and so far nobody has come close.

 

And that's because the real reason is failing Tory austerity. 

Edited 6 November 2017 by Rogstanley

[Innovindil]

8 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

True, but how many migrants arrive with a job offer? Here is an article that says record numbers of migrants are arriving without jobs.

 

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/26/eu-referendum-lord-ashcroft-poll-finds-nearly-two-thirds-of-vote

The figures also show that 77,000 EU migrants have come to the UK without employment. 

 

So about half of them have jobs when they arrive. A fairly big amount considering how many jobs we create every year. 

[Webbo]

11 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

You can compare like for like professions and see wages are considerably higher in France and Germany as well. 

 

I'm asking Webbo, or anyone really, to prove his claim that us being in the EU is the reason for falling wages and so far nobody has come close.

 

And that's because the real reason is failing Tory austerity. 

What proof would you accept? 

[Kopfkino]

9 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

You can compare like for like professions and see wages are considerably higher in France and Germany as well. 

 

I'm asking Webbo, or anyone really, to prove his claim that us being in the EU is the reason for falling wages and so far nobody has come close.

 

And that's because the real reason is failing Tory austerity. 

 

You can't actually but I would love it if you would show me this, I'm mightily intrigued. 

 

I'll tell you something, Webbo can't prove his claim in exactly the same way you can't actually prove that 'failing Tory austerity' is the reason for supposed falling wages. Webbo merely pointed out that we keep being told that wages are falling whilst we're in the EU and how the EU might have contributed to that. Granted I have no doubt that Webbo believes immigration is surpressing wages but that is back up by Oxford's Migration Observatory anyway. Point is, you have as much of a leg to stand on as Webbo.

[Rogstanley]

24 minutes ago, Webbo said:

What proof would you accept? 

Evidence that it has affected other countries in the same way would be a good start.

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, Rogstanley said:

Evidence that it has affected other countries in the same way would be a good start.

Which other countries have had the same influx of immigrants? Do these countries have the same employment rules?

[Rogstanley]

26 minutes ago, KingGTF said:

 

You can't actually but I would love it if you would show me this, I'm mightily intrigued. 

 

I'll tell you something, Webbo can't prove his claim in exactly the same way you can't actually prove that 'failing Tory austerity' is the reason for supposed falling wages. Webbo merely pointed out that we keep being told that wages are falling whilst we're in the EU and how the EU might have contributed to that. Granted I have no doubt that Webbo believes immigration is surpressing wages but that is back up by Oxford's Migration Observatory anyway. Point is, you have as much of a leg to stand on as Webbo.

Of course you can. Just have a Google around. You can find average wages by profession for any country easily.

[Rogstanley]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

Which other countries have had the same influx of immigrants? Do these countries have the same employment rules?

Germany and France 

[Webbo]

3 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

Germany and France 

Until recently Germany's population was falling, France's population growth was 0.4 in 2016, it was 0.8 in the UK.

[Rogstanley]

6 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Until recently Germany's population was falling, France's population growth was 0.4 in 2016, it was 0.8 in the UK.

Germany and France both have immigration and have both managed wage growth.

 

Australia has high immigration and wage growth.

 

The usa has high immigration and

 wage growth.

 

Canada has high immigration and wage growth.

 

There's just no real evidence that immigration causes wages across the board to fall.

 

Of course if you get an influx of labour in a particular subsect like unskilled work then it will have some effect but it doesn't explain why all but the very highest wages have fallen in real terms in the uk.

 

Round and round we go.

[Webbo]

Just now, Rogstanley said:

Germany and France both have immigration and have both managed wage growth.

 

Australia has high immigration and wage growth.

 

The usa has high immigration and

 wage growth.

 

Canada has high immigration and wage growth.

 

There's just no real evidence that immigration causes wages across the board to fall.

 

Of course if you get an influx of labour in a particular subsect like unskilled work then it will have some effect but it doesn't explain why all but the very highest wages have fallen in real terms in the uk.

 

Round and round we go.

Germany had a falling population and needed some immigration, France doesn't have the same level of immigration as us and has more than double the unemployment rate. Canada and Australia are massively under populated countries  that are built on immigration so that's a silly comparison. If America is doing well should we copy Trump?

 

You may claim that that it's just coincidence that stagnating wages and mass immigration are happening at the same time but you don't have any proof.

[Rogstanley]

5 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Germany had a falling population and needed some immigration, France doesn't have the same level of immigration as us and has more than double the unemployment rate. Canada and Australia are massively under populated countries  that are built on immigration so that's a silly comparison. If America is doing well should we copy Trump?

 

You may claim that that it's just coincidence that stagnating wages and mass immigration are happening at the same time but you don't have any proof.

How does 'underpopulation' of land affect jobs? Ridiculous point.

 

You may claim it's just coincidence that wages rocketed pre-2007 when we had high immigration and ignore every example I give until I just give up out of sheer exasperation but that doesn't, and never will, make you right.

[Webbo]

5 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

How does 'underpopulation' of land affect jobs? Ridiculous point.

 

You may claim it's just coincidence that wages rocketed pre-2007 when we had high immigration and ignore every example I give until I just give up out of sheer exasperation but that doesn't, and never will, make you right.

We've already established that we were in the longest world wide boom in history until the crash? Circumstances have changed since then.

[Rogstanley]

2 minutes ago, Webbo said:

We've already established that we were in the longest world wide boom in history until the crash? Circumstances have changed since then.

They have changed. They've changed for France, for Germany, for the US, for Canada, for Portugal, for the whole developed world and yet it's us that sits at the bottom of the wage growth league. Not mid-table, not even bottom half but smack bang at the bottom. The worst performing economy on wage growth in the entire developed world. That's what the Tories have delivered. Blame it on immigration, blame it on whatever you want really, it's an abysmal record that lays bare the massive and on going failure of this government.

[Kopfkino]

7 minutes ago, Webbo said:

We've already established that we were in the longest world wide boom in history until the crash? Circumstances have changed since then.

 

Webbo give up. There's two reasons for everything on this thread: Brexit and austerity. If they can't blame one, they'll blame the other. I'd love to see proof that people are actually worse off but it won't happen. 

[Webbo]

3 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

They have changed. They've changed for France, for Germany, for the US, for Canada, for Portugal, for the whole developed world and yet it's us that sits at the bottom of the wage growth league. Not mid-table, not even bottom half but smack bang at the bottom. The worst performing economy on wage growth in the entire developed world. That's what the Tories have delivered. Blame it on immigration, blame it on whatever you want really, it's an abysmal record that lays bare the massive and on going failure of this government.

France's and Portugal's unemployment is twice ours. Germany is benefiting from an undervalued currency and Canada's economy shrunk a little last quarter. You've picked on 1 statistic to pretend everything is a disaster.

 

If the roles were reversed we'd be having the same argument only you'd be saying unemployment was more important. 

[Rogstanley]

5 minutes ago, KingGTF said:

 

Webbo give up. There's two reasons for everything on this thread: Brexit and austerity. If they can't blame one, they'll blame the other. I'd love to see proof that people are actually worse off but it won't happen. 

What more proof do you want than the official government statistics which say wages have gone down?

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Webbo said:

Then we can vote for a different govt, we can't do that if we're still in the EU.

No British government will do so.