Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Guest MattP]

8 hours ago, filthyfox said:

It will take 5 years before we see any money from leaving Europe. ... Thanks for ****ing up my future.

 

8 hours ago, filthyfox said:

I was manning a poll booth for the referendum. The number of 80 year old people that couldn't remember their addresses was unreal - there should be a cognitive ability test to be eligible to vote. My grandma has memory issues.... she could have voted in that crucial vote. How wrong is that?

"Hello Mr Parsons can I see your card?, 95 years old I see, I just want to say thank you, I can't imagine what it must have been like having to be fighting a war for 6 years, storming those beaches in Normandy, running into what must have felt like almost certain death to give the people of your country a life where they won't be ruled by fascism, I bet you have some stories to tell don't you? You are voting leave? - What's your address? WHAT? can't remember your own address?, FFS, I'd stop you voting if I could, selfish bastard fcuking up my future "

 

God forbid we let those who have lived their lives in and outside of the European Union decide what they think is best.

Edited 22 November 2017 by MattP

[Guest MattP]

8 hours ago, filthyfox said:

Errrrr.... I couldn't influence people either way. A shame really; the blatant mistruths that were told.

They were, I'm still waiting for the June 2016 emergency budget, immediate 300,000 job losses and the refugee camps springing up in Kent.

[Guest MattP]

Not the most reputable polling agency but

 

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42%
LAB: 38%
LDEM: 9%
UKIP: 5%
GRN: 3%

(via Kantar Public / 14 - 20 Nov)

 

 

Hopes for the budget today? Just it not being a total disaster with some illness being followed by a "tax" being coined from it would be a success imo.

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, MattP said:

Not the most reputable polling agency but

 

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42%
LAB: 38%
LDEM: 9%
UKIP: 5%
GRN: 3%

(via Kantar Public / 14 - 20 Nov)

 

 

Hopes for the budget today? Just it not being a total disaster with some illness being followed by a "tax" being coined from it would be a success imo.

 

Kantar- CON 42, LAB 38, LDEM 9, UKIP 5

21 NOV 2017

Kantar have published a new voting intention poll ahead of the budget, the first I’ve seen from them since the general election. Topline figures are CON 42%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 5%. Fieldwork was between last Tuesday and this Monday.

This is the first poll to show a Conservative lead since September and the largest Tory lead in any poll since the election. As ever, it’s best to look carefully at any poll that shows an unusual result before getting too excited/dismayed. The reason for the unusual result appears to be methodological, rather than from some sudden Tory recovery, and down to the way Kantar treat turnout. As regular readers will know, many polls came horribly unstuck at the 2017 election because instead of basing turnout on how likely respondents said they were to vote, they predicted respondents likelihood to vote based on factors like their age and class. These methods assumed young people would be much less likely to vote, and produced large Conservative leads that ended up being wrong. Generally speaking, these socio-economic models have been dropped.

At the election Kantar took a sort of halfway position – they based their turnout model on both respondents’ self-assessed likelihood to vote, whether they voted last time and their age, assuming that older people were more likely to vote than younger people. This actually performed far better than most other companies did; Kantar’s final poll showed a five point Conservative lead, compared to the 2.5 they actually got. As such, Kantar appear to have kept using their old turnout model that partly predicts likelihood to vote based on age. The impact of this is clear – before turnout weighting Labour would have had a one point lead, very similar to other companies’ polls. After turnout weighting the Conservatives are four points ahead (the full tabs and methodology details are here).

(Another noticable difference between Kantar’s method and other companies is that they use the leaders’ names in their voting intention question, though given there is not nearly as much of a gap between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings as there used to be I’m not sure that would still have an impact.)

[Guest MattP]

Don't worry @toddybad I don't believe the poll, it did make me laugh though.

 

I am delighted there is no movement towards Labour though even with the current shambles and I'm certain we've now seen peak-Corbyn, he's clearly someone to follow for many but there are still enough people with houses, jobs, pensions etc in my opinion to stop him becoming Prime Minister, the Tory polling can only get better as soon as May goes.

 

The worry is someone realises this, I honestly think a centre-left Labour leader would be 10 points ahead now, even Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead whilst the Conservatives were in government in 2012

Edited 22 November 2017 by MattP

[Fox Ulike]

9 hours ago, Strokes said:

Yeah! we haven’t talked about the NHS bus for ages, let’s do that again.

O please Let's! Come on it's the highlight of the whole 290 pages of this thread!

 

What was it again?:

 

"Let's give the NHS £350m a week" doesn't mean Let's actually give the NHS £350m. It means "Let's think about giving the NHS £350m a week, but not actually do it."

 

Funny thing about lies is that they tend to come back and haunt you.

 

I really don't think this one is going to go away any time soon. It's like the Slade Christmas song.

[Strokes]

7 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

O please Let's! Come on it's the highlight of the whole 290 pages of this thread!

 

What was it again?:

 

"Let's give the NHS £350m a week" doesn't mean Let's actually give the NHS £350m. It means "Let's think about giving the NHS £350m a week, but not actually do it."

 

Funny thing about lies is that they tend to come back and haunt you.

 

I really don't think this one is going to go away any time soon. It's like the Slade Christmas song.

Let’s 

[Rogstanley]

2 hours ago, Facecloth said:

@Rogstanley and @toddybad, re the Ikea drawers. Whilst our standards being lower than others allowing less safe products being sold to the public is a larger issue, I don't see the issue here. I have those drawers too and they provide you with, and always have I think, a bracket to secure it to a wall, (and I've never seen anyone have drawers like that free standing in the middle of a room) so secure it to a wall. Complaining about these falling over is like complaining your car windscreen isn't strong enough to stop you going through when you crash, which isn't an issue if you wear your seatbelt. Use the product properly and you'll be fine.

The issue here is that those drawers have killed 8 children, and while the tories on here might be ok with having a good old hearty laugh about it, dead children isn't something normal people find remotely acceptable never mind funny. 

 

I think if you're laughing at anything to do with this story you need to take a good look at yourself, to be honest. It's sickening. 

 

Yes the drawers come with a wall fixing bracket but it's evident that they've not done enough to warn people that they will fall over easily if it isn't used.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

14 hours ago, toddybad said:

 UK has no problems with tax avoidance?

 

Almost 40% of corporate investments channelled away from authorities and into tax havens travel through the UK or the Netherlands, according to a study of the ownership structures of 98m firms.

The two EU states are way ahead of the rest of the world in terms of being a preferred option for corporations who want to exploit tax havens to protect their investments.

The Netherlands was a conduit for 23% of corporate investments that ended in a tax haven, a team of researchers at the University of Amsterdam concluded. The UK accounted for 14%, ahead of Switzerland (6%), Singapore (2%) and Ireland (1%).

Every year multinationals avoid paying £38bn-£158bn in taxes in the EU using tax havens. In the US, tax evasion by multinational corporations via offshore jurisdictions is estimated to be at least $130bn (£99bn) a year.

The researchers reported that there were 24 so-called “sink” offshore financial centres where foreign capital was ultimately stored, safe from the tax authorities.

Of those, 18 are said to have a current or past dependence to the UK, such as the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, the British  Virgin Islands and Jersey.

You have changed my word there you clown. A said the UK does not have a massive problem in comparison to some countries.

 

No as I have said a global effort needs to be made if ever we want to do something about this.

[Guest MattP]

Just over a month to go for Corbyn to keep his promise at Glastonbury that he'll be Prime Minister by Christmas.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

14 hours ago, Rogstanley said:

 

Sorry, I hate to do this to you again* but studies show that the wealthy give away a smaller proportion of their wealth to charity than the less wealthy. The poor are actually more generous than the rich. Keep bashing away at the keyboard by all means, just know that almost everything you are typing is factually incorrect.

 

*not really, I'm enjoying it more than I should be to be honest

I hate to do this to you again. I couldn't give a **** to be brutally honest. I have enough experience of the world to know what goes on outside a Guardianista Corbynista bubble.

 

Studies by who and where. Post a link and I can review its quality.

 

Again just because someone has done a study or a had think tank does not make it correct. I could do a study at univ and ask people to suit my agenda its pretty easy.

 

A study by some left wing university academic posted in the Guardian is not fact. You need to learn that.

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Let’s 

Let's = let us

 

Vote leave and let us give the nhs an additional £350m per week.

 

We (well, you) did vote leave. So we are letting them spend an additional £350m per week. We're just waiting now.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

You have changed my word there you clown. A said the UK does not have a massive problem in comparison to some countries.

 

No as I have said a global effort needs to be made if ever we want to do something about this.

2nd most involved would suggest we do have a massive problem. In fact it suggests we are a massive problem.

 

I thought it was us left wingers that resorted to name calling 

[Guest MattP]

7 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Let's = let us

 

Vote leave and let us give the nhs an additional £350m per week.

 

We (well, you) did vote leave. So we are letting them spend an additional £350m per week. We're just waiting now.

It's a bit like "I'll deal with it" isn't it? When someone says that some people believe they mean they will deal with it.

 

I actually voted leave despite this promise, if we do get 350 million a week after leaving the EU there are far better things we can spend it on than the NHS and I don't mean IKEA furniture to kill off young potential Corbynistas.

Edited 22 November 2017 by MattP

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, MattP said:

Just over a month to go for Corbyn to keep his promise at Glastonbury that he'll be Prime Minister by Christmas.

I watched his speech. Maybe I'm wrong but

 

1-  I don't recall him promising he would be pm by Xmas

 

2- would anybody take such a comment as a promise?

 

What a weird comment.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

Just now, toddybad said:

2nd most involved would suggest we do have a massive problem. In fact it suggests we are a massive problem.

 

I thought it was us left wingers that resorted to name calling 

It 'suggests' ok then I will believe it.

 

A clown is a friendly happy person wearing face paint full of jokes no problem  there!

[Guest]

Just now, MattP said:

It's a bit like "I'll deal with it" isn't it? When someone says that some people believe they mean they will deal with it.

 

I actually voted leave despite this promise, if we do get 350 million a week after leaving the EU there are far better things we can spend it on and I don't mean IKEA furtinure to kill off young potential Corbynistas.

If you want they're identical. Difference is let's formed the core argument of leave whilst I'll was a small aside to a question not the main thrust of the manifesto.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, toddybad said:

I watched his speech. Maybe I'm wrong but

 

1-  I don't recall him promising he would be pm by Xmas

 

2- would anybody take such a comment as a promise?

 

What a weird comment.

It was a very weird comment, said to his close friend Michael Eavis apparantly.

 

http://www.somersetlive.co.uk/whats-on/glastonbury-2017-michael-eavis-what-135650

Quote

 

When asked about the Labour leader's appearance, Michael Eavis said: "Wasn't he fantastic?"

"I said to when are you going to be prime minister? He said: 'In six months'."

Eavis, a long-time supporter of nuclear disarmament, said he asked Corbyn: "When are you going to get rid of Trident?"

"He said: 'as soon as I can'."

 

 

[James.]

What this thread often seems to highlight to me is how much of a gap there is in UK politics for a centre / centre left progressive business friendly government to come in and absolutely clean up. The Tories are a complete shambles (and in large parts horrible cnts) and Labour just lack the credibility to capitalise on their incompetence.

 

Can anyone see a new party or a resurgence of the Lib Dems happening at all over the next 5-10 years? Surely someone somewhere is thinking there's a gap to be exploited.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

It was a very weird comment, said to his close friend Michael Eavis apparantly.

 

http://www.somersetlive.co.uk/whats-on/glastonbury-2017-michael-eavis-what-135650

 

So not actually a promise to anybody then?

[Fox Ulike]

9 hours ago, filthyfox said:

I was manning a poll booth for the referendum. The number of 80 year old people that couldn't remember their addresses was unreal - there should be a cognitive ability test to be eligible to vote. My grandma has memory issues.... she could have voted in that crucial vote. How wrong is that?

That's Democracy mate.

 

If (chlorinated) turkeys vote for Christmas, you can't really stop them.

 

I don't think Brexit will be that bad, and I like to hope that it won't ruin anyone's future. I don't actually think that much will change for most people...

 

It's just going to make everything you want to do with your life a bit more difficult. Travel, work, buying a house etc. Plus, you'll have less money in your pocket.

 

 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, James. said:

What this thread often seems to highlight to me is how much of a gap there is in UK politics for a centre / centre left progressive business friendly government to come in and absolutely clean up. The Tories are a complete shambles (and in large parts horrible cnts) and Labour just lack the credibility to capitalise on their incompetence.

 

Can anyone see a new party or a resurgence of the Lib Dems happening at all over the next 5-10 years? Surely someone somewhere is thinking there's a gap to be exploited.

I think it's a huge shame the lib dems were treated do harshly for the coalition tbh. I actually think they had to go with the tories but if they'd lumped in with labour they wouldn't have been tarnished by the student loan fiasco.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Fox Ulike said:

That's Democracy mate.

 

If (chlorinated) turkeys vote for Christmas, you can't really stop them.

 

I don't think Brexit will be that bad, and I like to hope that it won't ruin anyone's future. I don't actually think that much will change for most people...

 

It's just going to make everything you want to do with your life a bit more difficult. Travel, work, buying a house etc. Plus, you'll have less money in your pocket.

 

 

Tell me more about these fantastic positives.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, James. said:

What this thread often seems to highlight to me is how much of a gap there is in UK politics for a centre / centre left progressive business friendly government to come in and absolutely clean up. The Tories are a complete shambles (and in large parts horrible cnts) and Labour just lack the credibility to capitalise on their incompetence.

 

Can anyone see a new party or a resurgence of the Lib Dems happening at all over the next 5-10 years? Surely someone somewhere is thinking there's a gap to be exploited.

Logically there is a huge gap to be exploited but unlike France where Macron came through any centre party here would have to gather huge support from both leave and remain and I can't think of any policy anyone could provide at this point that could reconcile the two.

 

At the minute I'd wager a huge portion of people are voting for the main two parties with little enthusiam aside from doing it to keep the other side out.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

14 hours ago, toddybad said:

He's like the gift that keeps on giving.

Confronted by reports and confirmations that all he believes in is wrong he just stoically doubles down on it all.

Reports and confirmations by whom from what source> Most sources are open to interpretation. The great thing about the world is that we all have different views, different interpretations and form our own opinions on matter. The only fact is that no system is 100% perfect and no source of report is 100% factual evidence as they are often written by people who my have some form of bias. People have a right to make their own decisions.

 

The gift that keeps on giving is this

 

10 hours ago, Rogstanley said:

Big business happy to continue selling multiple child killing product that has been withdrawn elsewhere because it meets all UK safety regulations:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42070606

 

Capitalism. Small government. Less regulation. Profits above all.

 

10 hours ago, toddybad said:

I've got a set of those drawers in my bedroom. It's heavy and I can confirm does topple if you open all the drawers. 

Damn those capitalist bastards selling cheap drawers that come with a fixing kit so that you can fix it to the wall!

 

Bloody hell we should immediately requisition the scum and redistribute their assets!

 

That's made the morning brighter already!