Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Fox Ulike said:

I think it was more the victory over the bile and lies against Corbyn in the mainstream media that was celebrated.  It was for me anyway.

He lost, how was it a victory?

[Innovindil]

6 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

No idea what youre looking at. The malm drawers have no such warning.

I can see it too. Page 2 with that warning in multiple languages. 

 

Edit: doesn't appear on all of them. The other ones I checked do include pictures for fastening the wall mount though. 

Edited 22 November 2017 by Innovindil

[Fox Ulike]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

He lost, how was it a victory?

[Strokes]

51 minutes ago, MattP said:

I suppose it's not strictly a promise, more just a lie.

 

I have no idea why people still push this idea, Labour and the Lib Dems didn't have enough seats to form a government in 2010.

They would have needed Sinn Fein, which as we know, is a big no no

 

[Guest]

Even the right wing papers are starting to grumble about the government

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/4969204/theresa-may-slashes-413million-from-police-budget-after-vowing-to-protect-cops/

 

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

Answer the question, he lost, how is losing an election a victory over the press?

 

In fact don't bother answering, I was prepared to give you more of a chance than Strokes was but you have got to be trolling, it's very weird.

Edited 22 November 2017 by MattP

[Rogstanley]

7 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

I can see it too. Page 2 with that warning in multiple languages. 

Strange, i can't see that anywhere

 

I'm trying to attach what I'm looking at, which is what I got with mine

M20053926.pdf

[Guest Foxin_mad]

5 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

No idea what youre looking at. The malm drawers have no such warning.

I think I see now some of the instructions are inconsistent the larger units seem to have multiple languages advising a fixing to the wall the smaller units do not. So perhaps they should be more consistent in the guidance they give. The 4 drawer 32 x 40 should definitely have the guidance and probably the 32x31 the other is probably too small to topple.

[Fox Ulike]

Just now, MattP said:

But he lost, how is losing an election a victory over the press?

 

In fact don't bother answering, I was prepared to give you more of a chance than Strokes was but you have got to be trolling, it's very weird.

I wasn't going to. I don't know how I can explain it any more simply than I've already tried to.

 

You really do take disingenuousness to previously unrecorded heights.

[Guest MattP]

7 minutes ago, Strokes said:

They would have needed Sinn Fein, which as we know, is a big no no

I already have the image of him begging on the phone for them to take their seats.

[Rogstanley]

1 minute ago, Foxin_mad said:

I think I see now some of the instructions are inconsistent the larger units seem to have multiple languages advising a fixing to the wall the smaller units do not. So perhaps they should be more consistent in the guidance they give. The 4 drawer 32 x 40 should definitely have the guidance and probably the 32x31 the other is probably too small to topple.

I see yeah, the 6 drawer unit has the warning but the others don't. I have the 3 drawer and it falls over. Should definitely have the same warning.

[Innovindil]

2 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

Strange, i can't see that anywhere

 

I'm trying to attach what I'm looking at, which is what I got with mine

M20053926.pdf

Yeah, edited my post. It's oddly not on all of them. No idea why they wouldn't just copy and paste that warning to them all. 

[Guest MattP]

Budget day and the politics thread has turned into a discussion the contents of the IKEA instruction book

[Guest Foxin_mad]

1 minute ago, Rogstanley said:

I see yeah, the 6 drawer unit has the warning but the others don't. I have the 3 drawer and it falls over. Should definitely have the same warning.

I do agree they should put it on all of them for clarity, simplicity and ultimately safety, it covers all bases. Perhaps a short email to them would push them to update all their documents which may hopefully save a life.

 

I think the last time I went into a UK store those boxes had red stickers advising about wall fixings but I could be wrong.

[Alf Bentley]

18 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

 

Chuka Umunna?

 

Can't see Umunna having a chance for a long while, unless there's another election and Labour do disastrously or Corbyn stands down or something. 

Umunna has alienated the Left too much. If a more soft-left candidate were to have a chance, it would surely be someone who had kept in with the Corbynistas a bit - e.g. Keir Starmer, who has also played a tricky hand very well given Brexit divisions among potential Labour voters.

 

But, unless some disaster had occurred, even if Corbyn decided to retire I reckon another candidate from the Left would win....only some of those attracted by the personality cult element would drift away.

 

13 minutes ago, MattP said:

Extremely lucky, I didn't see it at the time but in hindsight the adulation thrown on Corbyn was absolutely ridiculous, he had just led his party to an election defeat but as he had managed to take expectations so low during his tenure he was able to spin it as some sort of victory, getting back to a two party election gave him and May the get out line of saying "look how much my vote share has gone up".

 

He won just four more seats than Gordon Brown did and was getting standing ovations in parliament and going on a victory tour that culminated in Glastonbury, it was mental.

 

No, the media often repeat this insinuation that there could have been a Lab-Lib coalition in 2010 as well which is very irresponsible of them - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

 

Labour won 258 seats, the Liberals won 57 - eleven short of a parliamentary majority.

 

Tbf, @toddybad did refer to a "minority coalition". Lab would have needed about a 5-party deal to form a majority coalition in 2010 (Lab 258, LD 57, Plaid 4?, SDLP 3? Green 1). But, in theory, they could have formed a minority coalition with the Lib Dems (315 votes, about 8 short of a working majority) if they'd negotiated an understanding that some others - even the SNP - would not bring down the govt to let the Tories in.

Would have been very unstable, though....a bit like now. 

 

I don't agree that this year's election was a bad result for Corbyn, even despite the disastrous Tory campaign. Labour had been absolutely in the pits, a divided, warring shambles without much of a message.

That changed dramatically in the course of the election campaign, so that result was very good in the circumstances, even if it wasn't by traditional standards of an opposition facing a chaotic govt and poor Tory campaign.

 

Where alarm bells should be ringing for Labour is the polls now, which seem to have barely moved since the election, despite this shambles of a Tory govt.

That suggests that Labour under Corbyn may have hit a ceiling. Not only will it have to fight a defensive war to retain the support of a massive youth vote, Remainers in cosmopolitan cities & Brexit-voters in parts of the North/Midlands....

It will also have to find a way of breaking through and winning votes that it didn't get last time. It might just win next time if the Tories make an even bigger mess of the country than they already are.....but Lab cannot rely on that.

Corbyn & co probably need to find a way of appealing to more of the private sector middle-class, middle-aged, pensioners etc.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

2 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Yeah, edited my post. It's oddly not on all of them. No idea why they wouldn't just copy and paste that warning to them all. 

Silly admin error I am sure, maybe if we contact them they would adjust. Its just silly and inconsistent of them not to make them the same, maybe the instructions have been produced at different times but they should be updated.

 

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Budget day and the politics thread has turned into a discussion the contents of the IKEA instruction book

Probably more interesting than Hammond! Also good to find something the left and right can agree on! Ikea instructions need a revamp!

[Innovindil]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

Budget day and the politics thread has turned into a discussion the contents of the IKEA instruction book

At least it's a different debate. 

[Guest]

Global asset manager M&G want Philip Hammond to get radical today, and announce the creation of a new sovereign wealth fund to pay for “socially useful investment”.

They argue that this fund, financed by new debt, could easily be financed by selling UK government bonds.

M&G Investment’s fund managers Tristan Hanson & Eric Lonergan say Hammond should seize the moment, as borrowing costs are so low.

Today represents a near unprecedented chance for the Treasury to borrow money for the long-term at negative interest rates after inflation. This window of opportunity, which will at some point close, must be acted upon – especially at a time when businesses are cautious about investing in the UK.

Some might raise concerns around the prospect of increasing public debt, but with the creation of such fund, additional liabilities would be matched by new assets on the other side of the balance sheet. There would, therefore, be no increase to government debt if we look at things in the round.

M&G is a major player in the bond market - so this does suggest there is appetite in the City for the UK to borrow more.

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Can't see Umunna having a chance for a long while, unless there's another election and Labour do disastrously or Corbyn stands down or something. 

Umunna has alienated the Left too much. If a more soft-left candidate were to have a chance, it would surely be someone who had kept in with the Corbynistas a bit - e.g. Keir Starmer, who has also played a tricky hand very well given Brexit divisions among potential Labour voters.

 

But, unless some disaster had occurred, even if Corbyn decided to retire I reckon another candidate from the Left would win....only some of those attracted by the personality cult element would drift away.

 

Tbf, @toddybad did refer to a "minority coalition". Lab would have needed about a 5-party deal to form a majority coalition in 2010 (Lab 258, LD 57, Plaid 4?, SDLP 3? Green 1). But, in theory, they could have formed a minority coalition with the Lib Dems (315 votes, about 8 short of a working majority) if they'd negotiated an understanding that some others - even the SNP - would not bring down the govt to let the Tories in.

Would have been very unstable, though....a bit like now. 

 

I don't agree that this year's election was a bad result for Corbyn, even despite the disastrous Tory campaign. Labour had been absolutely in the pits, a divided, warring shambles without much of a message.

That changed dramatically in the course of the election campaign, so that result was very good in the circumstances, even if it wasn't by traditional standards of an opposition facing a chaotic govt and poor Tory campaign.

 

Where alarm bells should be ringing for Labour is the polls now, which seem to have barely moved since the election, despite this shambles of a Tory govt.

That suggests that Labour under Corbyn may have hit a ceiling. Not only will it have to fight a defensive war to retain the support of a massive youth vote, Remainers in cosmopolitan cities & Brexit-voters in parts of the North/Midlands....

It will also have to find a way of breaking through and winning votes that it didn't get last time. It might just win next time if the Tories make an even bigger mess of the country than they already are.....but Lab cannot rely on that.

Corbyn & co probably need to find a way of appealing to more of the private sector middle-class, middle-aged, pensioners etc.

Unless there is some huge change in the membership a guy like Umanna now has absolutely no chance, did you watch the documentary on Monday night following the Labour MP's during the campaign? Very good TV (BBC2 9PM, can't remember what it was called), the momentum lot hate the Labour MP's like him and Kinnock more than they hate the Tories. Next leader will be a women I think, Emily Thornberry or Angela Rayner both look good shouts, with this membership you just don't know though, they could easily decide to go with someone like Diane Abbott. I can't see it being Starmer either, he's competent but so dull it's hard to watch and that's from someone who likes his politicians to be dull, anyone who put the "no-confidence" on Corbyn will struggle.

 

Corbyn did better than we thought but he still lost, the problems of division were actually caused by him and his supporters, I do agree with Roger when he says he was lucky to come up against that Tory campaign.

 

That minority coalition would still have needing voting support from the SNP, the Tories and DUP combined had 316, one more than the 315. It was a total no-go in reality, it would have laughable had Brown been returned as Prime Minister after that result even if it was possible in theory.

 

Last paragraph is absolutely spot on, I'm amazed a few more questions aren't being asked why they can't capitalise on this. The moderates appear to have vanished, defeated, Tom Watson on stage at the conference singing "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" reminded me of one of the videos you see of a someone who has been captured by ISIS speaking into the camera.

[Kopfkino]

10 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Where alarm bells should be ringing for Labour is the polls now, which seem to have barely moved since the election, despite this shambles of a Tory govt.

That suggests that Labour under Corbyn may have hit a ceiling. Not only will it have to fight a defensive war to retain the support of a massive youth vote, Remainers in cosmopolitan cities & Brexit-voters in parts of the North/Midlands....

It will also have to find a way of breaking through and winning votes that it didn't get last time. It might just win next time if the Tories make an even bigger mess of the country than they already are.....but Lab cannot rely on that.

Corbyn & co probably need to find a way of appealing to more of the private sector middle-class, middle-aged, pensioners etc.

 

The thing is, I feel the next election will be determined by how much of the Conservative reputation for fiscal competence remains (whether it's justified or not). They didn't make enough of it in the last election but I do remember someone saying May has never cared much for economics.

 

 Assuming we go the full term, there is a decent probability of a recession prior to that election. And not a Brexit-induced one, but possibly another global financial crisis. Start of 2021 seems a decent bet for one and it will be doubly messy with EU transitional agreements coming to an end etc. If the Conservatives have economic credit still in the bank, they'll walk it, if voters think enough of this bullshit they've sold us for the last 11 years, it hasn't worked, then they won't. It's entirely possible their economic credit can't sink below that of Corbyn's for many people, even if his response to it was bang on. And then it will also come down to how much Brexit gets blamed for it because voters are obviously more likely to punish the Conservatives for that, despite the fact it will probably better to be as far from Europe as possible if a new financial crisis hits. 

[Kopfkino]

13 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Global asset manager M&G want Philip Hammond to get radical today, and announce the creation of a new sovereign wealth fund to pay for “socially useful investment”.

They argue that this fund, financed by new debt, could easily be financed by selling UK government bonds.

M&G Investment’s fund managers Tristan Hanson & Eric Lonergan say Hammond should seize the moment, as borrowing costs are so low.

Today represents a near unprecedented chance for the Treasury to borrow money for the long-term at negative interest rates after inflation. This window of opportunity, which will at some point close, must be acted upon – especially at a time when businesses are cautious about investing in the UK.

Some might raise concerns around the prospect of increasing public debt, but with the creation of such fund, additional liabilities would be matched by new assets on the other side of the balance sheet. There would, therefore, be no increase to government debt if we look at things in the round.

M&G is a major player in the bond market - so this does suggest there is appetite in the City for the UK to borrow more.

 

I had an interview with M&G last year where I actually talked about something similar to direct the foreign aid budget into a SWF for global projects. Safe to say I made a complete hash of my idea though  I'm not sure on this exactly though

Edited 22 November 2017 by Kopfkino
was illiterate

[filthyfox]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

 

"Hello Mr Parsons can I see your card?, 95 years old I see, I just want to say thank you, I can't imagine what it must have been like having to be fighting a war for 6 years, storming those beaches in Normandy, running into what must have felt like almost certain death to give the people of your country a life where they won't be ruled by fascism, I bet you have some stories to tell don't you? You are voting leave? - What's your address? WHAT? can't remember your own address?, FFS, I'd stop you voting if I could, selfish bastard fcuking up my future "

 

God forbid we let those who have lived their lives in and outside of the European Union decide what they think is best.

It appears you would have failed the cognitive ability test..... I have no problem with my 92 year old, very comps mentioned Grandfather voting. My grandmother, sadly is another kettle of fish.

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, filthyfox said:

It appears you would have failed the cognitive ability test..... I have no problem with my 92 year old, very comps mentioned Grandfather voting. My grandmother, sadly is another kettle of fish.

What about young people with mental health issues, down syndrome etc, should they be allowed to vote?

[Guest Foxin_mad]

Its arguable that people who go around scrawling 'kill tory scum' on posters of their local tory candidate have significant issues to be dealt with too. Maybe they should be banned from voting!

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, MattP said:

Unless there is some huge change in the membership a guy like Umanna now has absolutely no chance, did you watch the documentary on Monday night following the Labour MP's during the campaign? Very good TV (BBC2 9PM, can't remember what it was called), the momentum lot hate the Labour MP's like him and Kinnock more than they hate the Tories. Next leader will be a women I think, Emily Thornberry or Angela Rayner both look good shouts, with this membership you just don't know though, they could easily decide to go with someone like Diane Abbott. I can't see it being Starmer either, he's competent but so dull it's hard to watch and that's from someone who likes his politicians to be dull, anyone who put the "no-confidence" on Corbyn will struggle.

 

Corbyn did better than we thought but he still lost, the problems of division were actually caused by him and his supporters, I do agree with Roger when he says he was lucky to come up against that Tory campaign.

 

That minority coalition would still have needing voting support from the SNP, the Tories and DUP combined had 316, one more than the 315. It was a total no-go in reality, it would have laughable had Brown been returned as Prime Minister after that result even if it was possible in theory.

 

Last paragraph is absolutely spot on, I'm amazed a few more questions aren't being asked why they can't capitalise on this. The moderates appear to have vanished, defeated, Tom Watson on stage at the conference singing "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" reminded me of one of the videos you see of a someone who has been captured by ISIS speaking into the camera.

As Kopf says, a lot rides on the tories being able to argue economic competence. All their eggs are in one basket as they've pushed public services to breaking point. The chances of a credit crunch get higher every time they refuse to put money into the economy.

 

You also have to remember that labour win every age group up to 48. Every year that passes with student loans as they are sees another batch of labour voters arrive.