Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Izzy]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

That's impressive. You've got rep points from Toddybad and Webbo. Must be a first! 

 

I'd rep you myself as I completely agree with your comment, but I don't want to destroy the rare and perfect symmetry of those rep points. 

 

Saying "not enough changes, whoever is in power" would be arguable as a claim, but saying "nothing will change, whoever is in power" is patent nonsense, I'm afraid, Ken.

Was there really no difference between the govts of Heath, Wilson/Callaghan, Thatcher, Major, Blair/Brown, Tory/LD coalition & Cameron/May?

Would there really be no difference between a Corbyn majority, a May minority govt,  a Boris/Gove majority or a govt led by Vince Cable?

 

I think you've been on too many Mild Trails, @Rincewind 

 

What Ken actually said is "Nothing will change whoever is in power for the average working man/woman" - and I think he's got a point.

 

I'm sure the rich are better off under the Tories and the poor worse off, and visa versa under Labour. But for the average man/woman like myself, nothing much does really change in my day to day life regardless of who's in power.

 

Maybe financially I might be 5-10% better/worse off under a different government - but not really significantly. Maybe that's why the average man doesn't really give much of a shit about politics and this thread only survives because of the dozen or so 'hard core' on here who do take an interest.

 

Maybe that's why the turnout at elections is poor because the average man just gets on with it regardless.

 

I only really vote Tory because I think the country as a whole is in better hands economically, but I'm largely passive about it all along with millions of others.

[bovril]

1 hour ago, Buce said:

 

Wow.

 

Of all the genuinely obnoxious cvnts that you could have chosen to be wound up by, you get wound up by someone as harmless as Rince.

 

Astonishing.

Fair enough.

 

I'll stop being a dick and enjoy the sunshine and today's football. Peace and love to Rince. 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Rincewind said:

Have MP's ever voted for a cut in salary for themselves?

 

2 hours ago, Wymeswold fox said:

Tbh, why should they?

I'm sure some MP's deserve the salary they receive, based on how popular they are and try to take action on people's concerns in society,

The only thing about MP pay that annoys me is that when the NHS pay board get together, despite the fact it's supposed to be independent, ministers effectively tell it what the only acceptable answer will be - in recent years always 0% or 1%.

 

When the MP pay board meets suddenly it is competent independent and ministers couldn't possibly inform it's decisions. And so we see 11% rises.

 

It's a piss take.

 

That said, I generally think MPs should be paid much more and parliament should have a central team that deals with hiring/firing/pay of MP assistants to remove all the dodgy sets up with wife's allegedly working for MPs despite patently not doing anything.

 

1 hour ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

 

What Ken actually said is "Nothing will change whoever is in power for the average working man/woman" - and I think he's got a point.

 

I'm sure the rich are better off under the Tories and the poor worse off, and visa versa under Labour. But for the average man/woman like myself, nothing much does really change in my day to day life regardless of who's in power.

 

Maybe financially I might be 5-10% better/worse off under a different government - but not really significantly. Maybe that's why the average man doesn't really give much of a shit about politics and this thread only survives because of the dozen or so 'hard core' on here who do take an interest.

 

Maybe that's why the turnout at elections is poor because the average man just gets on with it regardless.

 

I only really vote Tory because I think the country as a whole is in better hands economically, but I'm largely passive about it all along with millions of others.

You make quite an interesting point I suppose.

It might not surprise you to learn that I don't particularly agree - politics is about more than just money and the state of education, the nhs, social care etc absolutely affects the ordinary, average person. It's why it's the 1% that the left has it in for. Its their largesse and unfair sway over policy (largely paid for by donations to the tory party) which means that people like me and you have to accept faltering services and more difficult lives that we should have to in the world's (now, since the Brexit vote pushed us down from 5th) 6th richest country.

Edited 26 May 2018 by Guest

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Rincewind said:

OK Maybe Alf is right in a way, there is not enough changes but basically nowadays they all shit in the same trough. Oxford/Cambridge same clubs etc. Look at someone like Rees Mogg. Like a bloke from the 19yh century. Lives in a country mansion. What does he know about struggling on a minimum wage? He voted for cuts in disabled benefits. I say they are basically the same in all parties because I do not want to be accused of being biased.

And that is why I rarely post here. I have no faith in politicians even those in the Party I vote for.

 

I wouldn't worry about seeming biased, Ken. We have all have our different biases, but so long as we justify our opinions and don't go on about them too much, that's OK, isn't it?

Of course, we all irritate others at one time or another - though I certainly didn't find you irritating, just disagreed with your point. You're probably happier for posting in this thread less often, anyway - I know that I am, during periods when I resist the lure! 

 

 

1 hour ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

 

What Ken actually said is "Nothing will change whoever is in power for the average working man/woman" - and I think he's got a point.

 

I'm sure the rich are better off under the Tories and the poor worse off, and visa versa under Labour. But for the average man/woman like myself, nothing much does really change in my day to day life regardless of who's in power.

 

Maybe financially I might be 5-10% better/worse off under a different government - but not really significantly. Maybe that's why the average man doesn't really give much of a shit about politics and this thread only survives because of the dozen or so 'hard core' on here who do take an interest.

 

Maybe that's why the turnout at elections is poor because the average man just gets on with it regardless.

 

I only really vote Tory because I think the country as a whole is in better hands economically, but I'm largely passive about it all along with millions of others.

 

Fair point re. Ken's reference being to the average working man/woman. It probably makes less difference at that level as regards tax/incomes (though even a 5-10% difference matters).

There are other areas, though, where it can make a big difference: e.g. spending on public services, Brexit priorities, foreign policy, immigration (spending on defence/police would have been another until recent years).

 

I agree that us idiots in this thread are entirely untypical of the wider public in the interest we show in politics. How many thousands of people are signed up to FT, yet there are, what, 15-20 who post in here with any frequency?

I was going to say that maybe 60-70% turnout at general elections and 30% at local elections isn't so bad.....but it is, really, isn't it, when they only happen once every year or two (local) or 2-3 times per decade (general election)?

I think that's a real shame. Who runs the govt or council does have an impact on our lives, our family's lives and the nature of our society.....and maybe there'd be more changes if more people took an interest.

 

I don't have many solutions to that passivity. Maybe introduce more politics/government into schools via citizenship classes (in a neutral way, without indoctrination)? Devolve more power to local communities/councils to increase relevance?

It would be great if politicians didn't all feel the need to make unrealistic promises. They all promise to improve all public services while not costing most people much in tax. It would be great if they could come out and say that they planned to improve public services but increase tax a bit....or cut taxes but accept some decline in certain public services. They all avoid saying such things, though, for fear of losing votes as people want to be promised impossible dreams.....then complain when they don't come true!

 

Edited 26 May 2018 by Alf Bentley

[Izzy]

25 minutes ago, toddybad said:

 

You make quite an interesting point I suppose.

It might not surprise you to learn that I don't particularly agree - politics is about more than just money and the state of education, the nhs, social care etc absolutely affects the ordinary, average person. It's why it's the 1% that the left has it in for. Its their largesse and unfair sway over policy (largely paid for by donations to the tory party) which means that people like me and you have to accept faltering services and more difficult lives that we should have to in the world's (now, since the Brexit vote pushed us down from 5th) 6th richest country.

 

 

18 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

Fair point re. Ken's reference being to the average working man/woman. It probably makes less difference at that level as regards tax/incomes (though even a 5-10% difference matters).

There are other areas, though, where it can make a big difference: e.g. spending on public services, Brexit priorities, foreign policy, immigration (spending on defence/police would have been another until recent years).

 

I agree that us idiots in this thread are entirely untypical of the wider public in the interest we show in politics. How many thousands of people are signed up to FT, yet there are, what, 15-20 who post in here with any frequency?

I was going to say that maybe 60-70% turnout at general elections and 30% at local elections isn't so bad.....but it is, really, isn't it, when they only happen once every year or two (local) or 2-3 times per decade (general election)?

I think that's a real shame. Who runs the govt or council does have an impact on our lives, our family's lives and the nature of our society.....and maybe there'd be more changes if more people took an interest.

 

I don't have many solutions to that passivity. Maybe introduce more politics/government into schools via citizenship classes (in a neutral way, without indoctrination)? Devolve more power to local communities/councils to increase relevance?

It would be great if politicians didn't all feel the need to make unrealistic promises. They all promise to improve all public services while not costing most people much in tax. It would be great if they could come out and say that they planned to improve public services but increase tax a bit....or cut taxes but accept some decline in certain public services. They all avoid saying such things, though, for fear of losing votes as people want to be promised impossible dreams.....then complain when they don't come true!

 

 

And that's why I admire you two as posters on here. I might not always agree with you but I massively respect your passion for politics.

 

The country needs people like you who care about politics and take an active interest in it to ensure justice, fairness and the right things happen - for all of us.

 

I'm passive and lazy like many others and are quite happy to be 'done to' which is a weak and feeble position really. I rely on people like you both (and the politicians I suppose) to have the debate on my behalf and end up coming up with a compromise which suits most people.

 

This thread is great sometimes and it's an education for people like me. I'm a bit in awe of the 15-20 who post frequently because it show up my ignorance and lack of understanding.

 

Long may the debates continue and long may you both fight for my rights as a citizen of this great land!

 

Thank you both 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

 

And that's why I admire you two as posters on here. I might not always agree with you but I massively respect your passion for politics.

 

The country needs people like you who care about politics and take an active interest in it to ensure justice, fairness and the right things happen - for all of us.

 

I'm passive and lazy like many others and are quite happy to be 'done to' which is a weak and feeble position really. I rely on people like you both (and the politicians I suppose) to have the debate on my behalf and end up coming up with a compromise which suits most people.

 

This thread is great sometimes and it's an education for people like me. I'm a bit in awe of the 15-20 who post frequently because it show up my ignorance and lack of understanding.

 

Long may the debates continue and long may you both fight for my rights as a citizen of this great land!

 

Thank you both 

I don't know whether to laugh or cry Izzy! 

[Alf Bentley]

37 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

 

And that's why I admire you two as posters on here. I might not always agree with you but I massively respect your passion for politics.

 

The country needs people like you who care about politics and take an active interest in it to ensure justice, fairness and the right things happen - for all of us.

 

I'm passive and lazy like many others and are quite happy to be 'done to' which is a weak and feeble position really. I rely on people like you both (and the politicians I suppose) to have the debate on my behalf and end up coming up with a compromise which suits most people.

 

This thread is great sometimes and it's an education for people like me. I'm a bit in awe of the 15-20 who post frequently because it show up my ignorance and lack of understanding.

 

Long may the debates continue and long may you both fight for my rights as a citizen of this great land!

 

Thank you both 

 

Thanks are completely undeserved in my case. All I ever do is gab on with you lot on here - and occasionally with real-life friends - so cannot claim to be ensuring justice, fairness and the right things for anyone! 

 

I did intend to go and get involved in my local Labour party, once my divorce and all the other shite was sorted.

But their meetings all take place on one of the days of the week when my daughter is with me, so that's a bit of a non-starter.

[Guest]

We're quickly heading for a crunch on Brexit.

At some point the PM will have to stop dithering and either go hard or soft brexit for good.Who knows where this will lead them party leadership wise. You can imagine JRM having his letter to the 1922 committee already written in the top drawer.

 

There's also huge pressure on the labour leadership to go Brexit-lite (still in single market) or anti Brexit. Not sure how long Corbyn can face down the membership with both the unions and momentum against him.

 

There will be several votes in the commons where there's a high chance that the government will either have to make changes - you'd imagine they'd try that - or have a significant risk of losing the vote. If they start losing votes parliament may effectively block the type of Brexit the government have been talking about (yet doing nothing about) since the election.

 

If Corbyn tries to whip his MPs to vote against the customs union I'd imagine he'll simply be ignored. The party and MPs are pretty much aligned over Brexit and it's Corbyn that is off message.

 

Meanwhile, huge additional costs are being openly discussed now like the £20b it will cost business to have borders (even invisible borders) according to HMRC and even more according to the channel tunnel. Business is openly anti Brexit.

 

Interesting polling shows that whilst UKIP and Tory voters that backed Brexit still do so by a huge majority, Labour Brexiteers are down by 93% since the referendum. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised that we have another election with Brexit at the heart. We're at a complete impasse as a nation. Our people still don't agree, our MPs don't agree, the cabinet doesn't agree, the shadow cabinet doesn't agree and, let's face it, the PM herself doesn't really believe in any of it. 

 

What's impossible to predict is what the election outcome would be. If it was a straight second referendum I'm pretty confident that remain would win by a decent margin now. An election is a different proposition. Much would depend on who led the Tories into the election.

 

Supposedly there's a plan being hatched for the Tories to struggle on until 2021 with Gove taking over from May next year but passing the baton to Ruth Davidson before a 2021 election. I'm not sure they can last that long given the Brexit impasse. If they force something through - particularly if Corbyn gives in and allows the party to vote on Brexit policy - the Tories will own the fall of our economy. They're going to need a proper democratic mandate - not a minority government.

 

What a mess we're in.

 

Eurotunnel warns on Tory plans for post-Brexit customs

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/27/eurotunnel-tory-brexit-customs-union?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

Edited 27 May 2018 by Guest

[breadandcheese]

4 minutes ago, toddybad said:

At some point the PM will have to stop dithering and either go hard or soft brexit for good.

The PM has always and will always be conservative (in the risk taking sense rather than political party). So she's already decided, as she is no risk taker.  All this talk of no deal is better than a bad deal is rubbish. She will go for a deal, any deal. Everything else is about how she manages the expectations of the country and her own party.

[Guest]

The time has come to sack this cnvt and stare down the nutters.

 

Boris Johnson launches fresh attack on customs union

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/27/boris-johnson-launches-fresh-attack-on-customs-union?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

[Sharpe's Fox]

The situation in Italy shows what the technocrats in Brussels really think of DEMOCRACY when facing a threat to the German industrialists who pay the bills. I’m glad we are leaving the corporate dictatorship of the Fourth Reich aka the EU before they can destroy a genuine progressive left government in Britain  

[DJ Barry Hammond]

 

There’s been a lot of rubbish said about this over the weekend... this may reveal how contrieved the whole thing was. I’ll say what I wasn’t willing to say in the article - TR knew what he was doing could get himself arrested and was happy to do so to make an ill-conceived point. 

 

https://articulatelive.wordpress.com/2018/05/28/prospective-setting-tommy-robinson-and-photography-outside-of-court-precincts/#more-5429

 

[Buce]

 

Labour MPs' fear of Brexit voters could be unfounded, study says

Exclusive: number of party’s leave supporters in its UK seats may be lower than thought

 

The number of Labour leave voters in each constituency could be lower than previously thought, suggesting MPs in pro-Brexit seats who fear being punished at the ballot box unless they adopt a hardline stance could be worrying unnecessarily, a campaign group has said.

In a study of all 650 UK parliamentary seats, the pro-remain group Best for Britain found numerous examples of Labour-held constituencies where remain supporters outnumber the MP’s majority.

The group has briefed many MPs on its findings in the hope of emboldening Labour politicians who had been reluctant to push the party leadership to support staying in the European Economic Area because of constituents’ views.

 

The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has ruled out supporting a Norway-style close relationship with the EU, although his deputy, Tom Watson, hinted at the weekend that a policy shift to back EEA membership could still be on the table.

Seven in 10 Labour-held constituencies voted to leave the EU and a recent meeting of the parliamentary Labour party was dominated by a bitter row over the single market, with MPs in pro-Brexit seats warning that supporting it would damage their electoral chances.

However, the research suggested there were “only a handful” of seats where more Labour voters backed leave than remain, and that many of these would support the party at a general election irrespective of its position on Brexit.

The study, which used YouGov data, showed that key members of Corbyn’s inner circle were among those MPs who could benefit from an “electoral dividend” if the party softened its position on Brexit. They included the shadow cabinet ministers Jon Trickett and Ian Lavery.

 

Trickett’s Hemsworth seat in West Yorkshire voted by 68.1% to leave the EU at the 2016 referendum. However, the YouGov data shows that of those who voted in the 2017 election, 11,037 were Labour remainers, greater than the shadow cabinet minister’s 10,174 majority. More Labour voters in the constituency backed remain than leave.

Lavery’s Wansbeck constituency in Northumberland backed Brexit with a 56.2% vote, yet the Labour remain tally was 12,392, greater than the Labour party chairman’s 10,435 majority. In 2017, 51% of Labour voters in the election had backed remain at the referendum, while 32% supported leave.

An insider at Best for Britain said: “These are both seats where the MP has the ear of Jeremy Corbyn. In each, the MP’s position is better than previously thought. If you’re saying that about Wansbeck and Hemsworth, then you can also say it about a couple of hundred other Labour-held seats with the same dynamic.”

These could include Don Valley, where the Labour MP Caroline Flint campaigned for remain but has subsequently warned the party not to try to “wriggle out” of the referendum result. Her constituency voted leave by 68.6%, but the Labour remain vote in 2017 was, at 10,371, substantially larger than her 5,169 majority.

 

Best for Britain, which was set up by the pro-EU campaigner Gina Miller, also held focus groups that suggested Labour leave voters would vote for a Labour government even if its position on Brexit – which is currently to stay in a customs union – did change.

The data, which cost tens of thousands of pounds to produce, also suggests many Conservative MPs have more Tory remain voters than previously thought, potentially bringing some of these seats into play for Labour.

The Tory Brexiter Stuart Andrew, for example, has a majority of just 331 in Pudsey in West Yorkshire. However, 6,903 Tory voters in 2017 were backers of remain. The former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith also has more Tory remainers in his Chingford and Woodford Green seat than his 2,438 majority.

 

Best for Britain also believes the research might “stiffen the resolve” of remain-supporting Tory MPs to consider their options when the House of Commons votes on Brexit in the next two weeks.

The research highlights the chances of a Labour “decapitation strategy” against Boris Johnson, whose majority in Uxbridge and South Ruislip halved at the last election to 5,034. The Tory remain vote there stood at 5,444 in 2017.

It showed that Theresa May has the second highest Tory remain vote in the country in Maidenhead, with 14,452 of her backers also voting to stay in the EU.

Eloise Todd, the chief executive of Best for Britain, said: “This is the first batch of a massive research project that we have undertaken. What this shows is that there is an electoral dividend for Labour in many seats if they move position and oppose Brexit. Not only is it right for the country for Labour to do that, it’s also good for Labour.”

 

[Sharpe's Fox]

wow all these FBPE Labour remain jokers who put more faith in unelected technocrats than their own electorate can do one. Frankly they need to put up or shut up because everytime they open their mouths they discredit the left.

[Guest MattP]

If the European Union thinks the Italians will lie down and do what they are told like the Danes or the Irish then they are going to be very disappointed. They'll probably go back to the polls and give an even bigger mandate to the populists.

[Sharpe's Fox]

14 minutes ago, MattP said:

If the European Union thinks the Italians will lie down and do what they are told like the Danes or the Irish then they are going to be very disappointed. They'll probably go back to the polls and give an even bigger mandate to the populists.

Yanis was on radio and wrote an article in the Guardian saying the exact same mate. Absolutely crazy how these idiots in Brussels never learn.

[Buce]

1 hour ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

wow all these FBPE Labour remain jokers who put more faith in unelected technocrats than their own electorate can do one. Frankly they need to put up or shut up because everytime they open their mouths they discredit the left.

 

You know you're talking bollox when you've got Tories repping you.

[Guest MattP]

16 minutes ago, Buce said:

You know you're talking sense when you've got democrats repping you.

[Sharpe's Fox]

37 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

You know you're talking bollox when you've got Tories repping you.

It's about democracy mate.

[Alf Bentley]

23 hours ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

The situation in Italy shows what the technocrats in Brussels really think of DEMOCRACY when facing a threat to the German industrialists who pay the bills. I’m glad we are leaving the corporate dictatorship of the Fourth Reich aka the EU before they can destroy a genuine progressive left government in Britain  

 

2 hours ago, MattP said:

If the European Union thinks the Italians will lie down and do what they are told like the Danes or the Irish then they are going to be very disappointed. They'll probably go back to the polls and give an even bigger mandate to the populists.

 

Is there any evidence of direct EU involvement in the Italian crisis (genuine question)? All I've seen is that the Italian President vetoed the prospective Finance Minister proposed, citing the concerns of Italian and foreign investors about it causing a financial crash in Italy and/or a departure from the Euro, due to the bloke's anti-Euro views.

 

I'm not being naive here. As the incoming coalition intended to slash taxes and increase public spending, it obviously would've ended up in breach of EMU rules and the Growth & Stability Pact re. deficit/GDP and debt/GDP ratios - and impacting the Euro in ways that the EU disapproved of. I assume that the EU would have got involved at some point - even though 80% of EU members are in breach of those inflexible rules on deficit/debt and the big countries seem to get away with it. I just don't know that the EU had stuck its oar in yet....it might have been big capital leaning on the Italian President, not the EU.

 

The EU certainly needs to reform EMU and the Stability Pact to make it more flexible, though, or it will just provoke ever more Euroscepticism. Never mind the Greek situation, where the EU certainly did show contempt for democracy, it's unbelievable to think that the 2nd Blair Govt (hardly a Radical Left or Far Right Govt) would have been in breach of the GDP/deficit ratio and could have faced sanctions, in theory. It's stuff like that made me, as a long-time Europhile and believer in the need for an international political response to globalisation, consider voting Leave in the referendum.

 

 

3 hours ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

wow all these FBPE Labour remain jokers who put more faith in unelected technocrats than their own electorate can do one. Frankly they need to put up or shut up because everytime they open their mouths they discredit the left.

 

Who are the "FBPE Labour Remain jokers", Sharpe's, and what have they been saying? And who are the unelected technocrats they're putting their faith in? The EU?

[Guest MattP]

@Alf Bentley EU Commissioners openly talking on German television like this.

 

Not even shy about the contempt they have for democratic votes anymore.

 

Donald Tusk is trying to save some face but it's so obvious what this lot are thinking behind the scenes. Vote for people like us or we'll try to punish you. Horrific and Shameful.

 

 

[Buce]

'Brexit is a disaster' – experts debate the latest economic data

Two former members of Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee examine why UK growth lags its EU rivals

• UK economy feels chill from spectre of disorderly Brexit
• How has the Brexit vote affected the UK economy? May verdict

 

David Blanchflower

Professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, US, and member of the MPC from June 2006 to May 2009

The Office for National Statistics has now confirmed that GDP growth in the UK in the first quarter of 2018 was 0.1%. We have comparable data for 19 other EU countries, all of which – other than Romania – grew a lot faster. Austria grew at 0.7%, Belgium 0.4%, Denmark 0.3%, Finland 1.1%, France 0.3%, Germany 0.3%, Italy 0.3%, the Netherlands 0.5% and Spain 0.7%, many of which also had bad weather.

A major concern is that business investment decreased by 0.2% between the final three months of 2017 and the first quarter. Firms are not going to invest when they have no idea what form Brexit will take and not least what will happen in relation to the Irish border.

We should expect this decline to continue, which will be bad for British productivity. Recall that the French still produce in four days what the UK produces in five and this is not going to change any time soon. The UK continues to be the sick man of Europe.

 

Mark Carney said that the UK economy was as much as 2% smaller than forecasts due to Brexit and estimates British households are more than £900 worse off. The uncertainties over what form Brexit will take also suggest that figure will continue to grow.

Added to that, real wages in the UK are still 6.5% below where they were in February 2008, just before the great recession started. They are the same as they were two years ago despite a small pick-up recently. Continuing and reckless austerity means living standards have fallen further – especially at the low end, because of cuts in benefits and public services and especially for those at the low end. People are hurting.

There was a solid improvement in retail sales in April after horrid weather impacted the March number. But pressures continue in the high street and it certainly isn’t good news that Marks & Spencer announced plans to close 100 stores. It is likely other high street closures will follow. The all-sector PMI did pick up – but still came in weaker than markets expected. Inflation surprised on the downside and house prices continue to slow. So a little bit of improvement, but not much.

There is nothing in the data to suggest a rate rise was appropriate even before the monetary policy committee’s May meeting, and since then the data has worsened further. Fortunately they saw sense and kept rates at 0.5%. The consequence of that has been that the pound has slumped by almost 6c against the dollar. If anything the data suggests to me a rate cut is in order and soon. Brexit is a disaster. As Laurel and Hardy famously said: “Well, here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten me into.”

 

Andrew Sentance

 

Senior economic adviser at the PwC consultancy and member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee from October 2006 to May 2011

The pattern of rather mixed data for the UK economy has continued this month, though it is also clear that bad weather had a significant dampening effect on a number of economic indicators for the first quarter of the year.

Even allowing for the weather, however, the UK continues to underperform relative to its major trading partners. UK GDP is just 1.2% up on a year ago, compared with a 2.5% increase in the eurozone and a rise of nearly 3% in the US. The sluggish growth of consumer spending remains the main source of weakness on the demand side of the economy.

However, the labour market has continued to paint a reasonably positive picture, with employment continuing to rise and wage growth continuing to run ahead of inflation. Both these factors should be positive for consumer spending in the second half of this year.

 

UK inflation fell back to 2.4% in April – but the good news on this front is likely to be interrupted over the next few months by rising fuel prices. The price of Brent crude may have fallen back recently from its recent peak to about $75 a barrel, but a year ago prices were in the range of $45-$50.

With the pound also softening against the dollar – following the monetary policy committee’s decision not to increase interest rates in May – a renewed surge of import prices is likely to keep inflation at about 2.5% over the summer months.

 

The UK economy also continues to suffer from very weak productivity growth. In both the US and the eurozone, GDP is rising 1%-1.5% faster than employment. Yet in the UK, GDP and employment are both increasing at the same rate – which suggests that productivity is flat and not increasing at all.

If Brexit causes high value-added jobs in manufacturing and financial services to move out of the UK, productivity growth could weaken further.

The UK economy now seems to be in a prolonged phase of disappointing growth performance, and it may well be that the current policy of keeping interest rates at exceptionally low levels is aggravating this problem, not making it better.

[Sharpe's Fox]

@Alf Bentley don't see how you can't blame the EU when the President has signed off racist, convicted and corrupt ministers in the past but draws the line when a finance minister expresses an opionion every economist has about a single currency that effectively signs up Southern Europe to economic slavery to maintain German exports.

[Guest MattP]

A map of the biggest exporters to each nation.

 

Make no mistake about it, the EU is a German scam. 

[Alf Bentley]

42 minutes ago, MattP said:

@Alf Bentley EU Commissioners openly talking on German television like this.

 

Not even shy about the contempt they have for democratic votes anymore.

 

Donald Tusk is trying to save some face but it's so obvious what this lot are thinking behind the scenes. Vote for people like us or we'll try to punish you. Horrific and Shameful.

 

 

 

The journalist who tweeted that seems to have backtracked and deleted his Tweet as it was a misquote.....

 

I'm sure the EU would have exerted pressure in due course - and may have been doing so behind the scenes - but I've yet to see any clear evidence of anti-democratic interventions (though there certainly was in Greece).

 

To be fair, stuff like EMU and the Growth & Stability Pact were all signed off by the EU nation states, so the plans of the new Italian govt might well have been in breach of EU treaties.

But those treaties need amending, to allow for more flexibility or these crises over national/EU democracy will keep recurring, boosting the Eurosceptic cause....just stupid by the EU not to reform.

Looks like it might have been capital markets leaning on the Italian President this time, though...