The "Big" Six and other PL Trends.

[davieG]

All stats copied from this article - https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/11710027/the-top-10-trends-of-the-201819-premier-league-season - The top 10 trends of the 2018/19 Premier League season
Leaders, goals, attacking full-backs, transfer spending, European ventures and much more...

 

The gap to seventh
Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United have collectively earned the title of 'big six' in recent years, and that phrase was reinforced further this season.

Wolves ended the season nine points adrift from Manchester United - a gap between sixth and seventh that has remained almost identical for three seasons running now - having never previously lasted for more than one campaign.

 

 

The last time the 'big six' was dismantled was during Leicester's title-winning campaign in 2015/16, when Southampton finished sixth, and, as a result, both Chelsea and Liverpool missed out.

But the 'big six' has generally reigned supreme for some time now, with 54 out of 60 top-six places being shored up by this group over the past decade.

Only Aston Villa (2009/10), Newcastle (2011/12), Everton (2012/13 and 2013/14), Leicester and Southampton (both 2015/16) have prevented complete dominance.

The biggest ever gap between sixth and seventh was when West Ham finished 11 points behind Chelsea in 2001/02, but that disparity was slashed to just one point the following season.

As the graphic below shows, this season's top six all recorded above-average point totals - with the exception of Chelsea in third place.

 

[nnfox]

I'm confident that next season the top 6 will not be the same as this season's.  Top 4 is probably out of reach but 5th and 6th are up for grabs with Utd being poor generally and the Chelsea transfer issue - especially if Hazard leaves. Arsenal need a few players too. 

 

Next season will be genuinely fascinating.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Next season we won't have Europe, but the big 6 all will. Hopefully if we can get Tielemans signed, another winger and another striker, we should be very close to the top 6 next season, if not in it (hopefully).

[MrSpaM]

Can guarantee the top six are going to be scattered across the league, with at least one of them being relegated in the next 5-8 years

Theres no way this "big club" thing is going to last in this day in age, all it's going to take is a couple of big takeovers at clubs lower down the table

[davieG]

Well I admire the optimism but with all their additional wealth and ability to attract not only players from abroad but more importantly from the chasing pack leaves me feeling more pessimistic.

 

You can see from the stats the gap is consistent for the last 3 Years.

[jim5000]

The problem is pretty much any of the top 6 can come in for our best players; Maguire, Chillwell, Piererra, Maddison, Tielemans; and offer them more money, a more prestigious club, ground, and city to play in, and European football, and there's not a lot we can do to stop them if they want to go.

 

We will pull in big transfer fees for them, but we have to uncover and develop the gems for ourselves with the constant risk of them being poached the moment it becomes apparent we found someone with something special.

 

Consistently and sustainably breaking into that group is a massive ask.

 

 

 

 

 

[davieG]

3 minutes ago, jim5000 said:

The problem is pretty much any of the top 6 can come in for our best players; Maguire, Chillwell, Piererra, Maddison, Tielemans; and offer them more money, a more prestigious club, ground, and city to play in, and European football, and there's not a lot we can do to stop them if they want to go.

 

We will pull in big transfer fees for them, but we have to uncover and develop the gems for ourselves with the constant risk of them being poached the moment it becomes apparent we found someone with something special.

 

Consistently and sustainably breaking into that group is a massive ask.

 

 

 

 

 

As it happened with Southampton, on the rise, good squad worked their way up to sixth lost their best players during their climband after finishing 6th then it all went wrong as they couldn’t maintain the flow of new blood and 3 years later struggling to avoid relegation.

 

To have any chance of maintaining a decent presence even just outside the top 6 you’ve got to be able to maintain the flow of quality players through clever transfers and from the academy integrating them seamlessly into the team whilst putting in above average consistent performances.

 

[Father Ted]

48 minutes ago, davieG said:

As it happened with Southampton, on the rise, good squad worked their way up to sixth lost their best players during their climband after finishing 6th then it all went wrong as they couldn’t maintain the flow of new blood and 3 years later struggling to avoid relegation.

 

To have any chance of maintaining a decent presence even just outside the top 6 you’ve got to be able to maintain the flow of quality players through clever transfers and from the academy integrating them seamlessly into the team whilst putting in above average consistent performances.

 

What went wrong with Southampton was a man named Claude Puel

[davieG]

22 minutes ago, Father Ted said:

What went wrong with Southampton was a man named Claude Puel

Not really all the best players were or had been sold. He kept them in the top 10 and an FA Cup final against the odds as demonstrated by the abysmal showing under Mark Hughes. 

[StriderHiryu]

This is a worrying trend BUT a number of the mid table teams were in a transition year:

 

- Wolves had just come up.

- Leicester changed over multiple players (Simpson, Okazaki, Fuchs, Kante, Huth, Morgan, Mahrez, Drinkwater all gone or played a much reduced role this season).

- Everton brought in a number of new players and a new manager.

- West Ham brought in a number of new players and a manager.

 

Of this group, Wolves, Leicester and Everton seem to have the best structure in terms of moving forward and I'd expect all 3 to close the gap. All 3 also did decently against teams above them this season.

 

When we won the title, Man City, Liverpool and Manchester United were all in transition periods. Spurs had a very young / naive team, Chelsea had the dreaded "Mourinho 3rd season syndrome" and Arsenal were, well just being Arsenal. All this meant the door was open and we took maximum advantage. This season it's been the mid table clubs that have rebuilt, and should be stronger next time round.

 

However, if the same gap appears next season too, then I think it's a warning sign that the league is a two or three tier system, which is to the detriment of the game.

[knitro]

Nothing is really preordained and every team that has been in the PL 4+ years has enough money to assemble a team which can get streaky enough to rock the apple cart and sneak in there. You can put us, Watford, West Ham, Everton, Palace and Wolves (because of the Portuguese skulduggery they've pulled off) in that column I think. 

 

When I look at the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal and Man United, I see squads further behind than a summer transfer season's work from repair. I also think each could benefit from a down season (out of Europe) to sort out their squads - the bandaid approach required by needing to compete for the top every year is part of the reason they're so rough now. You can't perennially buy 29 year olds and maintain a consistent, cohesive squad.

 

There's also just the natural return to the mean that the Top 2 will experience - I mean Liverpool lost a single league game this season and didn't win the title. That's absurd and to expect such a continued high standard from them and Man City is unlikely - each squad is an injury or two from being stretched too thin to maintain that maniacal consistency. Yes they will strengthen, but they will also weaken in other ways. We should appreciate how magnificent their accomplishments have been - both are truly some of the greatest teams ever (one of which we beat and the other we drew with, mind you).

 

Finally I think there's a mentality shift - you can attribute it to any number of things; social media, other sports providing role models, but people are not content to wait their turn any longer or bow to the status quo. People like Sancho are trailblazers showing young players they don't need to wait patiently for seasons languishing in the reserves - all of a sudden a midtable squad will become appealing as hungry young talent wants a shot at playing regularly versus getting run outs in cup games only. 

 

I expect the landscape to change significantly over the next decade.

[davieG]

2 minutes ago, knitro said:

Nothing is really preordained and every team that has been in the PL 4+ years has enough money to assemble a team which can get streaky enough to rock the apple cart and sneak in there. You can put us, Watford, West Ham, Everton, Palace and Wolves (because of the Portuguese skulduggery they've pulled off) in that column I think. 

 

When I look at the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal and Man United, I see squads further behind than a summer transfer season's work from repair. I also think each could benefit from a down season (out of Europe) to sort out their squads - the bandaid approach required by needing to compete for the top every year is part of the reason they're so rough now. You can't perennially buy 29 year olds and maintain a consistent, cohesive squad.

 

There's also just the natural return to the mean that the Top 2 will experience - I mean Liverpool lost a single league game this season and didn't win the title. That's absurd and to expect such a continued high standard from them and Man City is unlikely - each squad is an injury or two from being stretched too thin to maintain that maniacal consistency. Yes they will strengthen, but they will also weaken in other ways. We should appreciate how magnificent their accomplishments have been - both are truly some of the greatest teams ever (one of which we beat and the other we drew with, mind you).

 

Finally I think there's a mentality shift - you can attribute it to any number of things; social media, other sports providing role models, but people are not content to wait their turn any longer or bow to the status quo. People like Sancho are trailblazers showing young players they don't need to wait patiently for seasons languishing in the reserves - all of a sudden a midtable squad will become appealing as hungry young talent wants a shot at playing regularly versus getting run outs in cup games only. 

 

I expect the landscape to change significantly over the next decade.

Maybe but it I can’t see it happening other than isolated cases unless you can get into the CL at a decent level and stay there which requires you to maintain your top 4 place whilst still competing in the CL. 

 

Those in it and they’re about to make it easier to stay in it where ever they finish in the league will continue to get much richer than the rest and the rest recently voted to let them have an even bigger share of the overseas tv money as well.

[brucey]

The effect of VAR will be noticeable next season.

[reynard]

18 hours ago, davieG said:

Well I admire the optimism but with all their additional wealth and ability to attract not only players from abroad but more importantly from the chasing pack leaves me feeling more pessimistic.

 

You can see from the stats the gap is consistent for the last 3 Years.

Have to agree with this sadly.

54 out of 60 top 3 places filled with the same sides year after year is one of the most depressing stats I've seen related to the Premier League.

Add to that their dominance in the domestic cups as well and the picture is of a pretty unbalanced era of football.

Distribution of money and the transfer system geared so much in favour of the so-called big six need changing asap but doubt anyone will have the courage to take them on.

 

[st albans fox]

6 minutes ago, reynard said:

Have to agree with this sadly.

54 out of 60 top 3 places filled with the same sides year after year is one of the most depressing stats I've seen related to the Premier League.

Add to that their dominance in the domestic cups as well and the picture is of a pretty unbalanced era of football.

Distribution of money and the transfer system geared so much in favour of the so-called big six need changing asap but doubt anyone will have the courage to take them on.

 

They don’t think it’s fair now !!!!

 

will only get worse unless some other clubs find a way of making it a big seven or eight !! 

[davieG]

20 minutes ago, reynard said:

Distribution of money

When you get the PL overwhelmingly voting to let the qualifiers for the CL take a bigger share of the overseas TV money then there's really no chance of this ever happening

[Paninistickers]

17 hours ago, knitro said:

Nothing is really preordained and every team that has been in the PL 4+ years has enough money to assemble a team which can get streaky enough to rock the apple cart and sneak in there. You can put us, Watford, West Ham, Everton, Palace and Wolves (because of the Portuguese skulduggery they've pulled off) in that column I think. 

 

When I look at the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal and Man United, I see squads further behind than a summer transfer season's work from repair. I also think each could benefit from a down season (out of Europe) to sort out their squads - the bandaid approach required by needing to compete for the top every year is part of the reason they're so rough now. You can't perennially buy 29 year olds and maintain a consistent, cohesive squad.

 

There's also just the natural return to the mean that the Top 2 will experience - I mean Liverpool lost a single league game this season and didn't win the title. That's absurd and to expect such a continued high standard from them and Man City is unlikely - each squad is an injury or two from being stretched too thin to maintain that maniacal consistency. Yes they will strengthen, but they will also weaken in other ways. We should appreciate how magnificent their accomplishments have been - both are truly some of the greatest teams ever (one of which we beat and the other we drew with, mind you).

 

Finally I think there's a mentality shift - you can attribute it to any number of things; social media, other sports providing role models, but people are not content to wait their turn any longer or bow to the status quo. People like Sancho are trailblazers showing young players they don't need to wait patiently for seasons languishing in the reserves - all of a sudden a midtable squad will become appealing as hungry young talent wants a shot at playing regularly versus getting run outs in cup games only. 

 

I expect the landscape to change significantly over the next decade.

Some good points there.

 

I agree that, in an ideal world (for them and in a football perspective only) arsenal, man utd and Chelsea could do without a season in Europe to rebuild and refresh. Obvs the money and the brand image would not tolerate such a fallow year.

 

I think it was noticeable this season that De Bruyne's contribution was much less. And Salah to an extent. Kante (possibly due to his position with the manager) also had an off year

 

Riding high for a couple of seasons on the spin is exhausting stuff (as evidence, our world summer tour - Hollywood ffs! - after winning the league was all too much)

 

I think Arsenal could struggle next season. And I do mean struggle as in relegation fight. A squad on a par with Palace, added to Thursday football all mixed in with a shed load of pressure....they are extremely vulnerable.