FT General Election Poll 2019

[Alf Bentley]

5 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

11 point lead for the Tories in a recent poll - https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1192800597596147714

 

Increasing numbers of young Labour voters in another recent poll - https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1192799362537152513 

 

 

 

er, 35% - 25% = 10-point lead, not 11 points, "Mr. Matthew Goodwin, Academic, Speaker, Writer Book".....but not Mathematician? 

 

Anyway, what about the poll that really matters? The Foxes Talk poll? Massive swing to Labour.....game on! 

[Guest MattP]

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=ge2019_regional_VI

 

Regional polling analysis.

 

If (and it's a big if) this is anywhere near correct then it might even be that the Brexit party is hurting Labour more than the Tories. 

 

Labour appear to be facing total wipeout in Scotland. 

 

The Tories also need to be pretty afraid of the Lib Dems revival in the south, the swings there could cost them 30+ seats.

[Guest MattP]

I don't think Johnny Rotten is voting Labour this year 

 

 

[Strokes]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

I don't think Johnny Rotten is voting Labour this year 

 

 

Subtle as ever....

 

[bovril]

Johnson tells businesses in N. Ireland: "Actually, Northern Ireland has got a great deal. You keep free movement, you keep access to the single market."

 

If only there was some way the UK as a whole could get these wonderful benefits. 

[Tommo220]

Just now, bovril said:

Johnson tells businesses in N. Ireland: "Actually, Northern Ireland has got a great deal. You keep free movement, you keep access to the single market."

 

If only there was some way the UK as a whole could get these wonderful benefits. 

Classic BoJo.

 

[David Guiza]

16 minutes ago, MattP said:

I don't think Johnny Rotten is voting Labour this year 

 

Unless they ask him to do some advertising then he might change his mind . 

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, bovril said:

Johnson tells businesses in N. Ireland: "Actually, Northern Ireland has got a great deal. You keep free movement, you keep access to the single market."

 

If only there was some way the UK as a whole could get these wonderful benefits. 

But the UK doesn't want those benefits (or more likely, what comes with having access to those benefits) as the voters of England and Wales rejected it.

 

It is classic BoJo though, selling two different things on either side of the Irish Sea, he really is a complete shyster. 

[Guest MattP]

[David Guiza]

24 minutes ago, MattP said:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=ge2019_regional_VI

 

Regional polling analysis.

 

If (and it's a big if) this is anywhere near correct then it might even be that the Brexit party is hurting Labour more than the Tories. 

 

Labour appear to be facing total wipeout in Scotland. 

 

The Tories also need to be pretty afraid of the Lib Dems revival in the south, the swings there could cost them 30+ seats.

Seems to be numerous areas seeing significant gains for the Brexit Party and LibDems and big losses for Labour and smaller losses for the Tories. The votes for third and fourth, and possibly fifth, most popular parties must be the highest for decades you'd think?

 

Has anybody ever been polled in any of these? That's not me dismissing the results, I just don't know anybody who ever has. 

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

16 minutes ago, MattP said:

I don't think Johnny Rotten is voting Labour this year 

 

You mean he wasn't voting Labour in August 2018, when this video seems to have been filmed....... 

 

Lydon only ever votes Lydon anyway, cultural icon and national treasure as he is....

 

21 minutes ago, MattP said:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=ge2019_regional_VI

 

Regional polling analysis.

 

If (and it's a big if) this is anywhere near correct then it might even be that the Brexit party is hurting Labour more than the Tories. 

 

Labour appear to be facing total wipeout in Scotland. 

 

The Tories also need to be pretty afraid of the Lib Dems revival in the south, the swings there could cost them 30+ seats.

 

Would certainly be a massacre for Labour on those figures.

 

As someone who absolutely does not want a destructive ultra-Hard Brexit followed by 5 years of a narcissist leading a govt of right-wing populists and neo-liberals bearing temporary gifts.....

 

My main hope looking at that is to note that fieldwork was done 17th Oct - 4th Nov, so mainly at the peak of the Tory Govt pushing through Brexit by Halloween....

[David Guiza]

A touch of the John Motson's by the Guardian.

 

 

Edited 8 November 2019 by David Guiza

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

You mean he wasn't voting Labour in August 2018, when this video seems to have been filmed....... 

 

Lydon only ever votes Lydon anyway, cultural icon and national treasure as he is....

Would certainly be a massacre for Labour on those figures.

 

As someone who absolutely does not want a destructive ultra-Hard Brexit followed by 5 years of a narcissist leading a govt of right-wing populists and neo-liberals bearing temporary gifts.....

 

My main hope looking at that is to note that fieldwork was done 17th Oct - 4th Nov, so mainly at the peak of the Tory Govt pushing through Brexit by Halloween....

I thought that on the fieldwork - but surely most if that has to be post election called with those Brexit party numbers? 

[Alf Bentley]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

I thought that on the fieldwork - but surely most if that has to be post election called with those Brexit party numbers? 

 

Election was called 29th Oct, so more than halfway through fieldwork dates.

 

Brexit Party support hasn't moved THAT much over recent weeks, has it? It had slumped earlier, if you compare the Euro elections to the election of Boris, but that was a couple of months before.

 

Those graphs are a bit misleading as I presume the previous, very low figure for Brexit Party is actually the 2017 figure for UKIP? Hence massive increase in support?

 

They certainly suggest that, as of a fortnight ago, Labour was doing very badly. Which votes had gone where is less clear - had a lot of Lab votes gone to Brexit Party, or many to Lib Dems & to Tories due to election of Boris?

There could be "churn" hidden in that: e.g. Tory votes going to Farage, but Lab down more due to votes switching to Lib Dems & Boris?

 

It'll be interesting to hear a few reliable polls, based on decent-sized samples, taken from specific constituencies. That might give a better idea, though it's early days.

Even up-to-date regional figures can be misleading, if different things are happening in different sorts of constituencies.

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

Election was called 29th Oct, so more than halfway through fieldwork dates.

 

Brexit Party support hasn't moved THAT much over recent weeks, has it? It had slumped earlier, if you compare the Euro elections to the election of Boris, but that was a couple of months before.

 

Those graphs are a bit misleading as I presume the previous, very low figure for Brexit Party is actually the 2017 figure for UKIP? Hence massive increase in support?

 

They certainly suggest that, as of a fortnight ago, Labour was doing very badly. Which votes had gone where is less clear - had a lot of Lab votes gone to Brexit Party, or many to Lib Dems & to Tories due to election of Boris?

There could be "churn" hidden in that: e.g. Tory votes going to Farage, but Lab down more due to votes switching to Lib Dems & Boris?

 

It'll be interesting to hear a few reliable polls, based on decent-sized samples, taken from specific constituencies. That might give a better idea, though it's early days.

Even up-to-date regional figures can be misleading, if different things are happening in different sorts of constituencies.

It's almost impossible to read anything at the minute. 

 

In some seats it could be a four way contest. 

 

It's possible we have a hung parliament with a Labour/SNP/Liberal coalition, it's also possible we have a 100 seat Tory majority on them winning a significant amount of them by a margin of hundreds of votes. 

[LiberalFox]

Doesn't feel like the election has got going yet. If we (the lib dems) do well and take seats off the Tories, will Boris really be able to clean up a lot of extra seats from Labour to get a majority? 

[LiberalFox]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

So the public think Boris is Decisive, Strong, Likeable, Incompetent, Putting on an Act, Out of Touch, Untrustworthy and Dishonest. 

[LiberalFox]

WOuld have been interesting to compare to previous FT election polls but can't find any, I guess the messing around with the forum means they are lost.

[Alf Bentley]

22 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

So the public think Boris is Decisive, Strong, Likeable, Incompetent, Putting on an Act, Out of Touch, Untrustworthy and Dishonest. 

 

To be fair, depending on definitions, "likeable" is the only one of those that I'd fundamentally disagree with.  

 

As large numbers of people seem to intend to vote for someone strong, decisive, likeable, incompetent, untrustworthy and dishonest who's out of touch and putting on an act......what does that say about their priorities - or about the alternatives on offer? 

[Alf Bentley]

19 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

WOuld have been interesting to compare to previous FT election polls but can't find any, I guess the messing around with the forum means they are lost.

 

My recollection is that the FT election poll in 2017 showed Labour a bit further ahead, though not massively. Lib Dems are definitely a good bit higher this time. I think 2015 was similar to 2017, but not sure about that.

There was definitely a previous FT general election poll that had the Tories ahead - possibly 2010. I think UKIP have been higher than Brexit Party are this time - though maybe not in 2017? Greens have been a bit higher, too, I think.

 

Previous FT polls haven't been too different from the actual results, I think. Though, as I said to Matt, might be interesting to do another poll towards the end of the campaign, as some people will change their minds - or give the whole thing a miss.

[Alf Bentley]

37 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

Doesn't feel like the election has got going yet. If we (the lib dems) do well and take seats off the Tories, will Boris really be able to clean up a lot of extra seats from Labour to get a majority? 

 

It's a distinct possibility, unfortunately, though by no means guaranteed.

 

These pages explain why (you can click to get a list of target seats or defence seats for any party):

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

 

You have to be a bit careful reading them as neither Tories nor Lib Dems will probably take many seats off the SNP, while the Tories are unlikely to take Lib Dem seats.

 

But, allowing for that, to win 20 seats the Lib Dems have to overturn majorities of 15,000.

To win 40 seats (enough for a majority even if they lose 30 to Lib Dems & SNP), the Tories only need to overturn majorities of up to 4,000.

The Tories only have 13 seats in Scotland, so that's the most they can lose to the SNP, probably less.

 

We need either a significant shift in the polls or a lot of tactical voting to avoid a Tory majority, I think......though either or both are still very possible.

[Izzy]

27 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Previous FT polls haven't been too different from the actual results, I think. Though, as I said to Matt, might be interesting to do another poll towards the end of the campaign, as some people will change their minds - or give the whole thing a miss.

I do wonder what the turnout will be this time.

 

Just looking at the number of people on this thread and those in general who've said they'd abstain, suggests it could be low.

 

Then there's the cold/wet time of year and everything I hear/see in the media is criticizing the 'caliber' of MP's and suggesting people don't trust any of the leadership candidates this time around. 

 

Tempted to have a few quid on under 60% turnout @7/1 odds I must say..

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, LiberalFox said:

So the public think Boris is Decisive, Strong, Likeable, Incompetent, Putting on an Act, Out of Touch, Untrustworthy and Dishonest. 

Yep. And the problem is despite that he's still a better choice for PM than St Jeremy.

 

Someone should be throwing that on the desk of Corbyn and asking why he is 10 points behind that in the polls.

 

Boris is a chancer, a liar, a man only after his own career and place in history - and people like me have to vote for him because he's actually the only option in front of me for what I want to happen. It's actually pathetic. 

[fuchsntf]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Yep. And the problem is despite that he's still a better choice for PM than St Jeremy.

 

Someone should be throwing that on the desk of Corbyn and asking why he is 10 points behind that in the polls.

 

Boris is a chancer, a liar, a man only after his own career and place in history - and people like me have to vote for him because he's actually the only option in front of me for what I want to happen. It's actually pathetic. 

So you have 2 Unworthy Major candidates,with both being supported by incompetent and poor cabinets...

And yet People will still go out and vote.....!!! With People Finishing they believe its a must to vote,and One should vote for the less  slightly pathetic candidate.

I am Bloody sure if Hiltler & Stalin, were Standing candidates, some would go out and look for the argument for the lesser evil...

Is it the democracy of chaos, or Chaos of democracy..!!!e

If the Brexit issue,brought anything forward..it must be that the UK-electorate have discovered they have  no worth Political-leader , in neither of the 2 leading parties,nor in their honouable Trusted Top 12 representatives...cabinet and shadow cabinet...

Have we ever seen or been in such a lose/lose situation since the new Order After WWII.....

 

Edited 8 November 2019 by fuchsntf

[LiberalFox]

10 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

I've come to a conclusion that you have to ignore views which have no bearing - there is no way whatsoever we will go back to a ban on gay marriage, so I don't care what she thinks about that.  We do have a massive crime problem going out of control, and she is well placed to deal with it.

You had no problem critisising Farron for his views on homosexuality