FT General Election Poll 2019

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, Izzy said:

I do wonder what the turnout will be this time.

 

Just looking at the number of people on this thread and those in general who've said they'd abstain, suggests it could be low.

 

Then there's the cold/wet time of year and everything I hear/see in the media is criticizing the 'caliber' of MP's and suggesting people don't trust any of the leadership candidates this time around. 

 

Tempted to have a few quid on under 60% turnout @7/1 odds I must say..

 

I was about to agree with you, but then found this: http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

 

So, turnout has only dipped below 60% once since WW2 - in 2001, when the result was a foregone conclusion - and has increased for the last 4 elections (assuming figures are accurate).

 

I wouldn't be surprised if turnout falls given winter weather, general disillusionment with politics, voting/Brexit overkill & antipathy towards both big parties. But betting on it being lower than 60% might be a longshot? 

 

A significant minority will be highly motivated to vote: keen Brexiteers & keen Remainers, those who love Jezza and hate Bozza, or who love Bozza and hate Jezza, two very polarising leaders.

But I can imagine a fair few voters hating Corbyn/Johnson but not quite able to vote for anyone else - or vehemently opposed to their usual party's Brexit stance, but staying at home unwilling to be "disloyal".

 

So, go for it, Izzy! Splash  the cash as you know you want to!  

[RobHawk]

3 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

It's a distinct possibility, unfortunately, though by no means guaranteed.

 

These pages explain why (you can click to get a list of target seats or defence seats for any party):

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

 

You have to be a bit careful reading them as neither Tories nor Lib Dems will probably take many seats off the SNP, while the Tories are unlikely to take Lib Dem seats.

 

But, allowing for that, to win 20 seats the Lib Dems have to overturn majorities of 15,000.

To win 40 seats (enough for a majority even if they lose 30 to Lib Dems & SNP), the Tories only need to overturn majorities of up to 4,000.

The Tories only have 13 seats in Scotland, so that's the most they can lose to the SNP, probably less.

 

We need either a significant shift in the polls or a lot of tactical voting to avoid a Tory majority, I think......though either or both are still very possible.

Thanks for sharing Alf, interestingly my constituency is 43rd on the Tory list of targets. 

 

It's traditionally a labour seat but won by the torys by 27 votes in 2015, before labour won it back in 2017.

 

The Tory candidate for this election has been in the news for saying people on the benefits street TV show should be put down back in 2015 or whenever it was on. 

 

Also interesting to read that the constituency voted remain in the referendum which I hadn't realised.

 

Would expect a labour hold all things considered especially given the current MP seems popular and has done a good job so far. 

 

Just goes to show that those seats they only need a few percentage swing to take may not be as easy as it seems.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, RobHawk said:

Thanks for sharing Alf, interestingly my constituency is 43rd on the Tory list of targets. 

 

It's traditionally a labour seat but won by the torys by 27 votes in 2015, before labour won it back in 2017.

 

The Tory candidate for this election has been in the news for saying people on the benefits street TV show should be put down back in 2015 or whenever it was on. 

 

Also interesting to read that the constituency voted remain in the referendum which I hadn't realised.

 

Would expect a labour hold all things considered especially given the current MP seems popular and has done a good job so far. 

 

Just goes to show that those seats they only need a few percentage swing to take may not be as easy as it seems.

 

Yes, local factors will always mean that some seats with small majorities are surprisingly held and others with bigger majorities are taken.

 

If you have a well-liked sitting Lab MP, an idiot Tory challenger & a Remain majority, Labour might well get a better than average result in Gower & win there so long as the Tories aren't streets ahead nationally.

But other seats will be in the opposite situation: e.g. looking further down that list: West Bromwich, where Tom Watson stood down at the last minute; Bassetlaw, where the Lab candidate has been deselected; Lab seats with a big Leave vote.... 

 

Normally, the impact of local factors is only of limited use. If there's a national Lab-Con swing of 7% and Gower only swings 4%, it still falls......but hopefully the national result will be better than that!  

 

Mind you, I reckon regional and local variations could be much bigger than usual this time, due to Brexit.

On Newsnight, they were just talking about the Tories being confident they can take Hartlepool (strong Leave vote) but predicting that the Lib Dems could overturn some big Tory majorities in Remain seats in the Home Counties....

 

There are also various seats where high-profile Tory/Lab defectors like Grieve, Soubry & Umunna will be standing. There'll be some 3-way, even 4-way contests & odd results, I'm sure.

[Guest MattP]

8 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Bassetlaw, where the Lab candidate has been deselected;

This sounds extraordinary from the outside, what is going on?

 

So she won but the NEC just overturned it anyway?

 

Shows a taste of what's to come if this mob ever do get into power.

[RobHawk]

29 minutes ago, MattP said:

This sounds extraordinary from the outside, what is going on?

 

So she won but the NEC just overturned it anyway?

 

Shows a taste of what's to come if this mob ever do get into power.

Compared to Boris who just chucks out lifelong Tory's from the party because they don't agree with one issue.

 

I'm not defending labour in any way, the current leadership is an absolute shower on my opinion.

 

But let's not pretend that a taste of what's to come I'd this mob get into power is any worse than what we already have.

[Jimothy]

Actually shouted "Oh **** off" at the TV watching Matt Hancock trying to wriggle out of a question of why the Prime Minister and the Brexit Secretary don't agree on the issue of businesses filling in paperwork after Brexit.

[RobHawk]

16 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

Actually shouted "Oh **** off" at the TV watching Matt Hancock trying to wriggle out of a question of why the Prime Minister and the Brexit Secretary don't agree on the issue of businesses filling in paperwork after Brexit.

Matt Hancock is appalling, talks a lot of shit without actually saying anything.

[Jon the Hat]

36 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

Compared to Boris who just chucks out lifelong Tory's from the party because they don't agree with one issue.

 

I'm not defending labour in any way, the current leadership is an absolute shower on my opinion.

 

But let's not pretend that a taste of what's to come I'd this mob get into power is any worse than what we already have.

Do you really believe that?  These idiots think Venezuela is a model of socialist government ffs.

[davieG]

11 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

Matt Hancock is appalling, talks a lot of shit without actually saying anything.

He sounds like the perfect politician.

[Guest MattP]

41 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

Compared to Boris who just chucks out lifelong Tory's from the party because they don't agree with one issue.

 

I'm not defending labour in any way, the current leadership is an absolute shower on my opinion.

 

But let's not pretend that a taste of what's to come I'd this mob get into power is any worse than what we already have.

Boris didn't throw anyone out the party - he removed the whip from MP's who deliberately hamstrung his own government. 

 

Completely different ballpark to some of the things the Labour NEC is getting upto.

[Strokes]

27 minutes ago, MattP said:

Boris didn't throw anyone out the party - he removed the whip from MP's who deliberately hamstrung his own government. 

 

Completely different ballpark to some of the things the Labour NEC is getting upto.

Even if it was true, I thought whataboutary was no longer a valid defence.

[Guest MattP]

More Jew-goading with a touch of homophobia thrown in. 

 

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/labour-dan-carden-hey-jews-hey-jude?__twitter_impression=true

[The Fox Covert]

Tactical voting will be a big factor in this election and I will be doing my bit.

I am a former Labour Party member, although it was a long time ago. I live in a constituency where the Liberal and Labour vote together match the vote for the Tory incumbent, and because the Liberals won the seat in 2010 I will be voting for them as they have a realistic chance of winning the seat. Labour does not hold a single council seat in Somerset at any level from parish to county and has about as much chance of winning here as Oadby Town have of winning the FA Cup. 

I dislike Corbyn and think he is the worst leader in Labour's history. Happily the cause is not dead though. Brexit has allowed a new generation to demonstrate that Labour has continued relevance. In particular I am impressed with Sir Keir, his sidekick Rebecca Long-Bailey and Jess Phiillips. Although she has been around a bit longer than those three and does not have a role which puts her in the public eye very often I am also impressed with Meg Hillier, potentially a great Labour chancellor.

On 30/10/2019 at 06:57, Mark_w said:

Liz Kendall as per.

Where has Liz Kendall been for the last two years?

 

I did notice that Labour is ahead in the FT polls. Does this demonstrate something the pollsters don't know or is it simply Les-tah city and county, with fewer people in the villages being City supporters.

[leicsmac]

35 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Even if it was true, I thought whataboutary was no longer a valid defence.

Think it depends on what exactly is being used as the comparative and how they compare overall tbh.

 

I'm not sure that either the Tories or Labour really score many socially progressive points - though I'd also say that in terms of rights legislation and the like right now both are lightyears ahead of a lot of other major political parties in a lot of major countries in the world on that score.

[Guest MattP]

25 minutes ago, The Fox Covert said:

Where has Liz Kendall been for the last two years?

Campaigning to make a person she knows isn't fit to be the Prime Minister, the Prime Minister. 

 

It's a shame she didnt have the same courage most of her close colleagues and the Tory remainera had - just admit you can't put your name to this and step down, her seat is obviously more important to her than her morals.

 

It will probably just be her, Jess Phillips and Keir Starmer sat there surrounded by 200 odd hard lefties still convincing themselves they can regain control of the Labour party by the next election.

[Guest MattP]

Speaking of Jess "Jackanory" Phillips - the replies to this bollocks made me chuckle.

 

 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Speaking of Jess "Jackanory" Phillips - the replies to this bollocks made me chuckle.

 

 

I've replied and invited the 'Didn’t Happen of the Year Awards' account to take a look

[StanSP]

25 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

I've replied and invited the 'Didn’t Happen of the Year Awards' account to take a look

To be fair it's not beyond the realms of possibility that it could happen?

 

Certainly won't win a DHOTYA!

[UpTheLeagueFox]

2 minutes ago, StanSP said:

To be fair it's not beyond the realms of possibility that it could happen?

 

Certainly won't win a DHOTYA!

Of course it won't win it, or even be shortlisted, but I know they enjoy seeing this kind of BS.

[Guest MattP]

27 minutes ago, StanSP said:

To be fair it's not beyond the realms of possibility that it could happen?

 

Certainly won't win a DHOTYA!

It could have happened, but I imagine she's making it up. Maybe Yardley is a place where they have fetes on a Thursday rather than a weekend.

 

If it actually has happened you have to worry more about the brainpower in the school that can't move a school fete to a different day with six weeks notice.

[ithuriel]

A fair few peeps I've spoken too have said they will not vote again, they see democracy as a joke now and are disillusioned with anything to do with politicians in this country.

Whether they actually do or not remains to be seen.

[Jimothy]

 

[RobHawk]

6 hours ago, MattP said:

Boris didn't throw anyone out the party - he removed the whip from MP's who deliberately hamstrung his own government. 

 

Completely different ballpark to some of the things the Labour NEC is getting upto.

I didn't disagree with the point you were making until the last line which ruined the argument for me. 

 

In Boris we have someone who acted unlawfully, lied to the Queen and removed the whip from some of the most loyal Tories in the house. 

 

I don't agree with the actions of the Labour NEC, but suggesting it's worse than what we already have is where I disagree. They are both as bad as each other.

[LiberalFox]

It's hard to really follow the Labour stuff because you get a different opinion from different factions. 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

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