Fun-Packed Election Predictions Competition

[Mike Oxlong]

On 05/12/2019 at 11:59, Alf Bentley said:

Please save all arguments and rhetoric for other threads. This one is all about fun!

 

Predict the general election and you could win a fantastic prize.

 

Insert answers, overwrite, use bold, whatever so long as it's clear.

Submission/editing of entries accepted any time before 9.40 pm on election day (Thurs. 12th December).

 

Election Outcome (5 points if correct)

- Tory majority of 80+

- Tory majority of 40-79

- Tory majority of 20-39

- Tory majority of 1-19

- Hung parliament, Tories biggest party

- Hung parliament, Labour biggest party

- Labour majority

- Other (specify)

 

(Note: Majority increases by 2 with each extra seat - e.g. 326 v. 324 = 2-seat majority, 327 v. 323 = 4-seat majority; Speaker, Deputies & Sinn Fein included in 650 total)

 

Total seats per party (2017 figures in brackets)

Con (317) 343, Lab (262) 228 SNP (35) 41, Lib Dems (12) 17, Plaid (4) 2,Greens (1) 1, Brexit Party (0) 0, DUP (10) 9, Sinn Fein (7) 8, Independents (1) 1 Other - specify (1) 0

 

(For Con/Lab: 5pts if exact; 3pts if within 5; 1pt if within 10; For SNP/LD: 3pts if exact; 1pt if within 3; for others: 1pt if exact)

 

Name the first 3 seats to declare (any order, 1pt for each)

 

Early declarers at recent elections have included: Sunderland Central, Sunderland South, Sunderland West, Newcastle Central, Newcastle East, Newcastle North, Torbay, Cheltenham, Wrexham, Guildford, Belfast E & Hamilton.

But how might that be affected by high/low turnout in different areas, icy weather in the grim north, close contests/recounts etc.?

 

"Big name" failures (+1pt for each predicted correctly; -1pt for each predicted incorrectly)

 

Which of the following "big names" will fail to get elected?

 

Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Emily Thornberry, Ed Miliband, Jo Swinson, Chuka Umunna, Dominic Grieve, Anna  Soubry, Ian Duncan Smith, Zac Goldsmith, Jess Phillips, Dennis Skinner, Caroline Flint, John Redwood, Theresa Villiers, Tim Farron, Caroline Lucas, Nigel Dodds, Luciana Berger - No declarations - Playing it safe and going for a neutral point outcome 

 

Who will win these seats? (1pt for each; 2017 winner in brackets)

 

Canterbury (Lab) Lab , Kensington (Lab) Con  L Sheffield Hallam (Lab) Lib Dem, Ynys Mon (Lab) Lab, Grimsby (Lab) Con,  Sedgefield (Lab) Lab, Peterborough (Lab) Con , Stoke Central (Lab) Lab, Hartlepool (Lab) Lab, Rotherham (Lab) Lab, Wrexham (Lab) Con, Blackpool South (Lab) Con 

Stirling (Con) SNP, Loughborough (Con) Con, Hastings & Rye (Con) Con, St. Ives (Con) Con, St. Albans (Con) Con, Lewes (Con) Lib Dem, Southampton Itchen (Con) Con, Fife NE (SNP) SNP, 0Belfast South (DUP) DUP, Belfast East (DUP) DUP

 

Tie-break question: Predict turnout to 2 decimal figures (e.g. 65.44%): 66.24%

 

 

Thanks Alf. 

 

I’m not really a politico but given your effort and reminder it seemed right to participate 

[Alf Bentley]

OK.... Final call. Any more entries in the competition of the millennium?!

 

Entries accepted up to 9.40 pm tonight.

 

Roll up! Roll up! Welcome to the House of Fun! .......every top thread needs a theme tune! 

 

 

[Darkon84]

Sorry @Alf Bentley I still doubt I'll get a full prediction in, but here's a swift few bits, which I may come back to if possible.

 

Outcome - Tory majority 1-19

 

First seats to declare - Sunderland C, W, S

 

Big names to fail to get elected - Raab, Berger, Soubry, Umunna

 

Predicted turnout - 62.6%

[Mark_w]

@Alf Bentley f*** it can I add Boris to the big names section and get a point deducted for it when it all goes tits up?

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Mark_w said:

@Alf Bentley f*** it can I add Boris to the big names section and get a point deducted for it when it all goes tits up?

 

Consider it done!

[Dr The Singh]

Who on here is going to have a session??

 

I've had 3 beers already, and I'm prepping myself for intermediary pornhub action and election updates

[Izzy]

On 11/12/2019 at 06:32, Izzy said:

If turnout is low, I'm gonna be pissed off that I never stuck that £20 on @7/1 on less than 60%

 

Therefore my turnout prediction is 59.99% 

 

(The Tory's will piss it btw with a majority of 40-79)

Exit poll says I win 

[Mark_w]

@Alf Bentley can I change my guess?

[StanSP]

.

[Alf Bentley]

On 11/12/2019 at 06:32, Izzy said:

If turnout is low, I'm gonna be pissed off that I never stuck that £20 on @7/1 on less than 60%

 

Therefore my turnout prediction is 59.99% 

 

(The Tory's will piss it btw with a majority of 40-79)

 

12 hours ago, Izzy said:

Exit poll says I win 

 

Not for answering one question, Izzy. 

 

With just 1 result to come and a Tory majority of 78 displayed, you might think that you have at least won that question.....but no, not yet! 

 

If the Tories hold St. Ives, they'll have 365 v. 285 for the Opposition.....a majority of 80. So, unless the Lib Dems take St. Ives (possible), you've even got the 1 question you did wrong.

 

You need to stick to your (admittedly immense) expertise in youth football coaching. 

 

On 06/12/2019 at 15:31, LiberalFox said:

I predict we end up with a terrible PM.

 

Now, this bloke is definitely scoring a lot of points. 

 

I'll try to get my head round the predictions and prizes later today....

[Mark_w]

17 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Not for answering one question, Izzy. 

 

With just 1 result to come and a Tory majority of 78 displayed, you might think that you have at least won that question.....but no, not yet! 

 

If the Tories hold St. Ives, they'll have 365 v. 285 for the Opposition.....a majority of 80. So, unless the Lib Dems take St. Ives (possible), you've even got the 1 question you did wrong.

 

You need to stick to your (admittedly immense) expertise in youth football coaching. 

 

 

Now, this bloke is definitely scoring a lot of points. 

 

I'll try to get my head round the predictions and prizes later today....

I can't give you any rep points, but you're a brave man for not just pretending this thread didn't happen Alf. Hope the trauma of totting everything up isn't too much (but I'm not offering to help).

[Alf Bentley]

OK, funlovers.....here are the correct answers:

 

Election Outcome (5 points if correct)

- Tory majority of 80+

 

Total seats per party 

Con 365, Lab 203, SNP 48, Lib Dems 11, Plaid 4, Greens 1, Brexit Party 0, DUP 8, Sinn Fein 7, Independents 0, Other - specify: SDLP 2, Alliance 1, Speaker (Lab) 1

 

Name the first 3 seats to declare (any order, 1pt for each)

 

Blyth Valley, Sunderland South, Newcastle Central

 

"Big name" failures (+1pt for each predicted correctly; -1pt for each predicted incorrectly)

 

Jo Swinson, Chuka Umunna, Dominic Grieve, Anna  Soubry, Zac Goldsmith, Dennis Skinner, Caroline Flint, Nigel Dodds, Luciana Berger

 

Who will win these seats? (1pt for each)

 

Canterbury (Lab), Kensington (Con), Sheffield Hallam (Lab), Ynys Mon (Con), Grimsby (Con), Sedgefield (Con), Peterborough (Con), Stoke Central (Con), Hartlepool (Lab), Rotherham (Lab), Wrexham (Con), Blackpool South (Con)

Stirling (SNP), Loughborough (Con), Hastings & Rye (Con), St. Ives (Con), St. Albans (LD), Lewes (Con), Southampton Itchen (Con), Fife NE (LD), Belfast South (SDLP), Belfast East (DUP)

 

Tie-break question: Predict turnout to 2 decimal figures: 67.3%

[Alf Bentley]

Thanks to everyone who did some or all of the Fun-Packed Election Predictions Competition.......certainly a lot more fun than the real event for some of us! 

 

Special merit awards go to.....

@Mark_w for winning the competition overall & getting the 2nd most accurate party seat predictions (apart from Con & Lab !)

@MattP for getting the most "big name losers" (7) & most correct constituency predictions (18 out of 22), closely followed by @Kopfkino (17) & @Tuna & @Mark_w (16)

@Alf Bentley () for the most accurate party seat predictions & getting the N. Irish seats spot on

@David Guiza, @Mark_w, @davieG & @StanSP, who all got 2 out of 3 of the first seats to declare

@Izzy, who got closest to predicting the election outcome.....predicting a Tory majority of 40-79, when it turned out to be 80, after the Tories won the last seat by 4000 this afternoon - equivalent to a VAR disallowed 95th-minute goal 

@David Guiza who got closest to predicting the turnout: 67.2% (67.3% in reality)

 

 

The fantastic prizes donated by political celebrities

 

1st: Mark_w takes politics back to the 70s as he flies Concorde to New York & enjoy a retro Broadway show: The Black & Orange Minstrel Show, starring Trudeau & Trump. Justin & Donald are having a party, take your tanning lotion & your boot polish!

2nd: MattP enjoys a romantic candlelight dinner for 2 with Prince Andrew at Woking Pizza Express , then dances the night away at Tramp. Think you'll score? No sweat!

3rd: Kopfkino splits his sides laughing at the Christmas Pantomime as Widow Twankey (Michael Gove) launders the Tory record & Pinocchio (Boris Johnson) pretends he was never there & tells outrageous lies

4th: Tuna combines his progressive social values & allotment skills as he joins Jeremy Corbyn to work on an Israeli kibbutz - strictly no building of settlements or firing of rockets

5th: Alf Bentley joins the ever-charming Jacob Rees-Mogg  as he lounges on a comfortably padded green bench for 40 years, waiting to pluck the ripe fruits of Brexit (keeping his dosh safe in Dublin until then)

6th: David Guiza spends a fascinating night in the launderette with expert launderer Keith Vaz. Keith will provide the washing powder. You're bound to come out smelling of roses!

7th: Mike Oxlong keeps it strong and stable  as he runs naked through a field of wheat with racy daredevil Theresa May

8th: DavieG joins Diane Abbott at Battersea Dogs' Home as she visits her incarcerated son. Perhaps she'll conduct an audit while she's there?

9th: Leicsmac laughs himself giddy as Jo Swinson announces she'll revoke her gym membership when she takes charge of the gym, then pivots to a people's vote on gym membership before realising nobody likes her

10th: StanSP weeps with emotion as Chuka Umunna recreates the Greek Tragedy of Narcissus. Don't fall in, Chuka!

 

Sorry, no prizes for Liberal, Izzy, Strokes or Darkon84, apart from the honour of knowing that you took part. I'm sure a better range of prizes will be available in 2024  for our "one nation predictions competition"... 

[Izzy]

Great thread Alf and thanks for adding a bit of fun to the election proceedings.

 

Sorry for you personally that the end result wasn't what you wanted.

[Mark_w]

Oh it was all worth it after all then.

How on earth have I won this with what was undoubtedly the least accurate prediction! Still it was an election characterized by people winning things they don't deserve, so fair enough I guess. Cheers for the hard/painful work Alf.

[StanSP]

Cheers Alf! Suppose could be worse! Chuka can go first. I'll try and hold out

 

[Mike Oxlong]

Thanks Alf 

 

Coming 7th in this has been the highlight of the election for me 

[Dr The Singh]

10 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Thanks to everyone who did some or all of the Fun-Packed Election Predictions Competition.......certainly a lot more fun than the real event for some of us! 

 

Special merit awards go to.....

@Mark_w for winning the competition overall & getting the 2nd most accurate party seat predictions (apart from Con & Lab !)

@MattP for getting the most "big name losers" (7) & most correct constituency predictions (18 out of 22), closely followed by @Kopfkino (17) & @Tuna & @Mark_w (16)

@Alf Bentley () for the most accurate party seat predictions & getting the N. Irish seats spot on

@David Guiza, @Mark_w, @davieG & @StanSP, who all got 2 out of 3 of the first seats to declare

@Izzy, who got closest to predicting the election outcome.....predicting a Tory majority of 40-79, when it turned out to be 80, after the Tories won the last seat by 4000 this afternoon - equivalent to a VAR disallowed 95th-minute goal 

@David Guiza who got closest to predicting the turnout: 67.2% (67.3% in reality)

 

 

The fantastic prizes donated by political celebrities

 

1st: Mark_w takes politics back to the 70s as he flies Concorde to New York & enjoy a retro Broadway show: The Black & Orange Minstrel Show, starring Trudeau & Trump. Justin & Donald are having a party, take your tanning lotion & your boot polish!

2nd: MattP enjoys a romantic candlelight dinner for 2 with Prince Andrew at Woking Pizza Express , then dances the night away at Tramp. Think you'll score? No sweat!

3rd: Kopfkino splits his sides laughing at the Christmas Pantomime as Widow Twankey (Michael Gove) launders the Tory record & Pinocchio (Boris Johnson) pretends he was never there & tells outrageous lies

4th: Tuna combines his progressive social values & allotment skills as he joins Jeremy Corbyn to work on an Israeli kibbutz - strictly no building of settlements or firing of rockets

5th: Alf Bentley joins the ever-charming Jacob Rees-Mogg  as he lounges on a comfortably padded green bench for 40 years, waiting to pluck the ripe fruits of Brexit (keeping his dosh safe in Dublin until then)

6th: David Guiza spends a fascinating night in the launderette with expert launderer Keith Vaz. Keith will provide the washing powder. You're bound to come out smelling of roses!

7th: Mike Oxlong keeps it strong and stable  as he runs naked through a field of wheat with racy daredevil Theresa May

8th: DavieG joins Diane Abbott at Battersea Dogs' Home as she visits her incarcerated son. Perhaps she'll conduct an audit while she's there?

9th: Leicsmac laughs himself giddy as Jo Swinson announces she'll revoke her gym membership when she takes charge of the gym, then pivots to a people's vote on gym membership before realising nobody likes her

10th: StanSP weeps with emotion as Chuka Umunna recreates the Greek Tragedy of Narcissus. Don't fall in, Chuka!

 

Sorry, no prizes for Liberal, Izzy, Strokes or Darkon84, apart from the honour of knowing that you took part. I'm sure a better range of prizes will be available in 2024  for our "one nation predictions competition"... 

Wheres my thanks

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, Dr The Singh said:

Wheres my thanks

 

Diane Abbott is delivering them, handwritten in person. She's just tucked them into her cleavage and is putting her shoes on as I speak...

[David Guiza]

On 13/12/2019 at 22:29, Alf Bentley said:

Thanks to everyone who did some or all of the Fun-Packed Election Predictions Competition.......certainly a lot more fun than the real event for some of us! 

 

Special merit awards go to.....

@Mark_w for winning the competition overall & getting the 2nd most accurate party seat predictions (apart from Con & Lab !)

@MattP for getting the most "big name losers" (7) & most correct constituency predictions (18 out of 22), closely followed by @Kopfkino (17) & @Tuna & @Mark_w (16)

@Alf Bentley () for the most accurate party seat predictions & getting the N. Irish seats spot on

@David Guiza, @Mark_w, @davieG & @StanSP, who all got 2 out of 3 of the first seats to declare

@Izzy, who got closest to predicting the election outcome.....predicting a Tory majority of 40-79, when it turned out to be 80, after the Tories won the last seat by 4000 this afternoon - equivalent to a VAR disallowed 95th-minute goal 

@David Guiza who got closest to predicting the turnout: 67.2% (67.3% in reality)

 

 

The fantastic prizes donated by political celebrities

 

1st: Mark_w takes politics back to the 70s as he flies Concorde to New York & enjoy a retro Broadway show: The Black & Orange Minstrel Show, starring Trudeau & Trump. Justin & Donald are having a party, take your tanning lotion & your boot polish!

2nd: MattP enjoys a romantic candlelight dinner for 2 with Prince Andrew at Woking Pizza Express , then dances the night away at Tramp. Think you'll score? No sweat!

3rd: Kopfkino splits his sides laughing at the Christmas Pantomime as Widow Twankey (Michael Gove) launders the Tory record & Pinocchio (Boris Johnson) pretends he was never there & tells outrageous lies

4th: Tuna combines his progressive social values & allotment skills as he joins Jeremy Corbyn to work on an Israeli kibbutz - strictly no building of settlements or firing of rockets

5th: Alf Bentley joins the ever-charming Jacob Rees-Mogg  as he lounges on a comfortably padded green bench for 40 years, waiting to pluck the ripe fruits of Brexit (keeping his dosh safe in Dublin until then)

6th: David Guiza spends a fascinating night in the launderette with expert launderer Keith Vaz. Keith will provide the washing powder. You're bound to come out smelling of roses!

7th: Mike Oxlong keeps it strong and stable  as he runs naked through a field of wheat with racy daredevil Theresa May

8th: DavieG joins Diane Abbott at Battersea Dogs' Home as she visits her incarcerated son. Perhaps she'll conduct an audit while she's there?

9th: Leicsmac laughs himself giddy as Jo Swinson announces she'll revoke her gym membership when she takes charge of the gym, then pivots to a people's vote on gym membership before realising nobody likes her

10th: StanSP weeps with emotion as Chuka Umunna recreates the Greek Tragedy of Narcissus. Don't fall in, Chuka!

 

Sorry, no prizes for Liberal, Izzy, Strokes or Darkon84, apart from the honour of knowing that you took part. I'm sure a better range of prizes will be available in 2024  for our "one nation predictions competition"... 

Loved it!