Climate Change - a poll

[Sly]

I was with someone the other day, who holds a Director position in R&D.

 

We were discussing climate change and the impact it is having on the world.

 

He put a different , though provoking gap in on it for me.

 

He said, look at all the graphs and they start around 1700 - 1800. 

 

Apparently the average temperature was higher in the 1600s. He said what we are actually trying to deal with, is the impact of the rising temperatures on todays society.

[SpacedX]

6 minutes ago, Sly said:

I was with someone the other day, who holds a Director position in R&D.

 

We were discussing climate change and the impact it is having on the world.

 

He put a different , though provoking gap in on it for me.

 

He said, look at all the graphs and they start around 1700 - 1800. 

 

Apparently the average temperature was higher in the 1600s. He said what we are actually trying to deal with, is the impact of the rising temperatures on todays society.

Then he's woefully uninformed - and I'm not entirely sure what holding a Director position in Research and Development has to do with the veracity of his claims. 

 

From 1300 to around 1850 average global temperatures dropped by as much as 2°C (3.6°F), particularly in Europe and North America. The so called 'little ice age' was likely a result of a combination of reduced solar output, changes in atmospheric circulation and increased volcanic activity. However, go back almost two millennia and the period of Roman occupation in the  (Roman Warm Period, or Roman Climatic Optimum), was a period of unusually-warm weather in Europe and the North Atlantic that ran from approximately 250 BC to AD 400. Both this and the 'Medieval Warm Period' - another brief climatic interlude, are postulated to be caused by the reverse - and increase in solar activity and a reduction in volcanic aerosols, but also large-scale climate patterns, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the NAO.

 

The difference lies in the rapid and anomalous degree of warming that the planet is experiencing which is unprecedented in the last two thousand years. It is exceptionally and exponentially acute and cannot be explained by natural variability, tropical volcanoes or solar changes - (although the current  El Niño is “spiking some of these extreme events). The reason is anthropogenic climate change.

[leicsmac]

https://phys.org/news/2023-10-global-threatened-droughts-worldwide.html

 

Water is an essential resource. What happens when it becomes scarce for a whole lot of people?

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67242386

 

Human fossil fuel emissions are threatening a key climate threshold more quickly than previously thought, a new report says.

Researchers say the world may be committed to breaching the 1.5C limit by 2029, rather than the mid 2030s.

They say record average emissions of carbon dioxide over the past three years are a key factor.

They also point to a having a better understanding of how the burning of fossil fuels affects the atmosphere.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67271688

 

There are already signs that deep divisions could hamper progress at the UN's crucial COP28 climate summit.

More than 70 environment ministers and 100 national delegations have been meeting in Abu Dhabi ahead of talks that begin in Dubai on November 30.

Many delegates doubt that a summit hosted by a petrostate - the United Arab Emirates - can shepherd the world towards a low carbon future.

This year is on track to be the hottest ever recorded globally.

 

...what was it that folks say about Nero, fiddling and Rome burning?

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67332791

 

It is now "virtually certain" that 2023 - a year of deadly heatwaves, floods and fires - will be the warmest on record, new data suggests. 

 

The prediction follows "exceptional" high October temperatures.  Global average air temperatures were 0.4C warmer than the previous high of October 2019, according to the EU's climate change service. 

 

Driven by carbon emissions and an El Niño weather event, this was the fifth month in a row of record warmth. 

 

Extreme global temperatures will likely continue into 2024, researchers say.

 

 

Oh dear.

[foxy boxing]

On 11/10/2023 at 13:26, leicsmac said:

https://phys.org/news/2023-10-global-threatened-droughts-worldwide.html

 

Water is an essential resource. What happens when it becomes scarce for a whole lot of people?

Then there will be water wars. There is already conflicts where countries have built dams that affect the flow of water to other countries.

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, foxy boxing said:

Then there will be water wars. There is already conflicts where countries have built dams that affect the flow of water to other countries.

Yeah.

 

Then I have to wonder...is not enough being done about this because the powers that be don't understand the consequences, or they do and instead look to embrace them and come out "top dog" in the horrors that follow?

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67360929

 

A good bit of analysis from the Beeb here.

[ozleicester]

Never had a 7 day heatwave in November before... but its all made up

[leicsmac]

28 minutes ago, ozleicester said:

Never had a 7 day heatwave in November before... but its all made up

Frustrating, isn't it?

 

That being said, don't need to convince those so wantonly blind about the future and other people, just as long as you convince enough people to get what needs to be done, done, in a democratic system.

[Guest Sideshow Faes]

25 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Frustrating, isn't it?

 

That being said, don't need to convince those so wantonly blind about the future and other people, just as long as you convince enough people to get what needs to be done, done, in a democratic system.

The reality is that ordinary people aren't going to be changing anything significant. the only people with enough clout to affect things are world leaders and industry leaders. And so we're entirely at the mercy of their will to do the right thing (as they all know the truth is we're screwed as things stand) over them continuing to get rich to enjoy their own life at the expense of humanity's ongoing existence. 

[leicsmac]

41 minutes ago, Sideshow Faes said:

The reality is that ordinary people aren't going to be changing anything significant. the only people with enough clout to affect things are world leaders and industry leaders. And so we're entirely at the mercy of their will to do the right thing (as they all know the truth is we're screwed as things stand) over them continuing to get rich to enjoy their own life at the expense of humanity's ongoing existence. 

I would say that's mostly true, but at the same time I'm not buying the idea that "ordinary" people are entirely powerless on this one - such powerful figures can be driven to change by the public if such pressure is applied accurately.

 

In any case, as I've said before, I'm not overly fussy about the mechanics of the solution as long as it is effective, because the simple fact is that the consequences of any such mechanic will still be better than the alternative of letting things play out to their catastrophic conclusion.

[Guest Sideshow Faes]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

I would say that's mostly true, but at the same time I'm not buying the idea that "ordinary" people are entirely powerless on this one - such powerful figures can be driven to change by the public if such pressure is applied accurately.

 

In any case, as I've said before, I'm not overly fussy about the mechanics of the solution as long as it is effective, because the simple fact is that the consequences of any such mechanic will still be better than the alternative of letting things play out to their catastrophic conclusion.

Unfortunately, a bit like Britain's covid response, leaders will only take serious action when we're in the midst of it - once the genie is out the bottle so to speak. And then it'll be too late. It's practically too late now, and yet we still have 'respected' news agencies dousing any embers of resistance to the status quo brought about by climate science. 

 

When the shit hits the fan there needs to be a reckoning for the reckless media figures that have used false equivalences to lie.

[leicsmac]

22 minutes ago, Sideshow Faes said:

Unfortunately, a bit like Britain's covid response, leaders will only take serious action when we're in the midst of it - once the genie is out the bottle so to speak. And then it'll be too late. It's practically too late now, and yet we still have 'respected' news agencies dousing any embers of resistance to the status quo brought about by climate science. 

 

When the shit hits the fan there needs to be a reckoning for the reckless media figures that have used false equivalences to lie.

Of course, you're asking people to address a problem that is abstract to them. To paraphrase Jon Snow: "How do I convince people who don't know me that an enemy they don't have direct physical evidence for yet is coming to kill them all, because by the time they're here it's too late?"

 

(Tyrion didn't have an answer for that either, and he's a smart guy.)

 

At some point, people are going to have to take at least a few things on faith or, quite frankly, get out of the way.

 

NB. If things do go way south, believe me, there will be a reckoning - and I think the people asking why their lives are in vastly reduced circumstances compared to those who came before them aren't going to be too picky about who they blame for it.

[Guest Sideshow Faes]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Of course, you're asking people to address a problem that is abstract to them. To paraphrase Jon Snow: "How do I convince people who don't know me that an enemy they don't have direct physical evidence for yet is coming to kill them all, because by the time they're here it's too late?"

 

(Tyrion didn't have an answer for that either, and he's a smart guy.)

 

At some point, people are going to have to take at least a few things on faith or, quite frankly, get out of the way.

 

NB. If things do go way south, believe me, there will be a reckoning - and I think the people asking why their lives are in vastly reduced circumstances compared to those who came before them aren't going to be too picky about who they blame for it.

Oh we're on exactly the same page.

I think within 15 years people are going to realise very clearly it's not their kids or grandkids that will be the ones affected. It's them too. 

[grobyfox1990]

4 hours ago, Sideshow Faes said:

The reality is that ordinary people aren't going to be changing anything significant. the only people with enough clout to affect things are world leaders and industry leaders. And so we're entirely at the mercy of their will to do the right thing (as they all know the truth is we're screwed as things stand) over them continuing to get rich to enjoy their own life at the expense of humanity's ongoing existence. 

Ordinary people can and won't make any difference. This thread proves that, what's the merit of posting screenshots of heat waves/storms/extreme weather events and going 'all fake innit..?' or somesuch to impress dudes on the internet.

To say we're relying on world and industry leaders to 'do the right thing' is woefully inaccurate and not the rhetoric that should be spread. They will do what is right by their wallets, and climate risk is causing a lot of harm to their wallets, now. We are at a 1.3 degree world with frequent, global, extreme weather events lol, it's nothing to do with 'doing the right thing'

[Guest Sideshow Faes]

25 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Ordinary people can and won't make any difference. This thread proves that, what's the merit of posting screenshots of heat waves/storms/extreme weather events and going 'all fake innit..?' or somesuch to impress dudes on the internet.

To say we're relying on world and industry leaders to 'do the right thing' is woefully inaccurate and not the rhetoric that should be spread. They will do what is right by their wallets, and climate risk is causing a lot of harm to their wallets, now. We are at a 1.3 degree world with frequent, global, extreme weather events lol, it's nothing to do with 'doing the right thing'

People can't make decisions that will effectively fight climate change.

They can recycle every single item in their lives, use public transport where possible, holiday in the UK..... But ultimately the processes behind all of it still cause greenhouse gases until governments force industries to rid us of them. Which they aren't.

At this point only a worldwide joined up governmental approach to immediately change the fundamental processes behind how humanity feeds itself, creates, communicates, and everything else, we ain't stopping this thing.

The only thing ordinary people can do is vote for green policies but then we have the media bought and paid for by those opposing that.

[grobyfox1990]

11 minutes ago, Sideshow Faes said:

People can't make decisions that will effectively fight climate change.

They can recycle every single item in their lives, use public transport where possible, holiday in the UK..... But ultimately the processes behind all of it still cause greenhouse gases until governments force industries to rid us of them. Which they aren't.

At this point only a worldwide joined up governmental approach to immediately change the fundamental processes behind how humanity feeds itself, creates, communicates, and everything else, we ain't stopping this thing.

The only thing ordinary people can do is vote for green policies but then we have the media bought and paid for by those opposing that.

I know, I agree with you. This is why I find threads like this disingenuous. Let the climate deniers believe climate denial. We DO NOT want people to believe/be influenced by things they read on the internet, because there is far more dangerous stuff for them to believe then the things on this thread. Hence the posturing on stating 'all fake innit' is worse than useless.

But I mainly replied to the original post to say industry leaders are taking climate risk seriously because it hits their wallets, nothing to do with the 'right thing' - future of humanity is irrelevant when money is being lost now.

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, grobyfox1990 said:

I know, I agree with you. This is why I find threads like this disingenuous. Let the climate deniers believe climate denial. We DO NOT want people to believe/be influenced by things they read on the internet, because there is far more dangerous stuff for them to believe then the things on this thread. Hence the posturing on stating 'all fake innit' is worse than useless.

But I mainly replied to the original post to say industry leaders are taking climate risk seriously because it hits their wallets, nothing to do with the 'right thing' - future of humanity is irrelevant when money is being lost now.

Interesting way of looking at it. There's an argument to be made that what the ignorers (won't say "deniers" because you may as well deny the force of gravity) think doesn't matter right now, but also it's a sad fact that those industry leaders spoken of and governments too, simply aren't doing enough to stop there being some nasty (though perhaps not catastrophic) consequences around the corner. So trusting to base principles like money to solve this one might do the job, but it will also likely be more costly - in terms of money and lives and civlisational change itself - than getting folks to think further ahead than their line of sight, their next pay packet and next year.

[grobyfox1990]

3 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Interesting way of looking at it. There's an argument to be made that what the ignorers (won't say "deniers" because you may as well deny the force of gravity) think doesn't matter right now, but also it's a sad fact that those industry leaders spoken of and governments too, simply aren't doing enough to stop there being some nasty (though perhaps not catastrophic) consequences around the corner. So trusting to base principles like money to solve this one might do the job, but it will also likely be more costly - in terms of money and lives and civlisational change itself - than getting folks to think further ahead than their line of sight, their next pay packet and next year.

Oh yeh fully agreed leaders aren’t doing ENOUGH right now. But the rhetoric needs to change away from taking climate risk seriously being the ‘right thing to do as a human’ to being the ‘right thing to do to save you a buttload of cash’ As let’s be honest, people relate to that more. And it’s true! Climate risk is costing us all money now! The amount of freaks I speak to who spend every summer in some tinpot village in Italy ‘Oooh so nice the food wowzers!!’ Well you can’t do that anymore unless you can cope with 47 degrees. Your summer holiday to lie on a beach reading a book is gonna cost a lot more 

[westernpark]

This thread and the holiday thread are an oxymoron.

[leicsmac]

13 hours ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Oh yeh fully agreed leaders aren’t doing ENOUGH right now. But the rhetoric needs to change away from taking climate risk seriously being the ‘right thing to do as a human’ to being the ‘right thing to do to save you a buttload of cash’ As let’s be honest, people relate to that more. And it’s true! Climate risk is costing us all money now! The amount of freaks I speak to who spend every summer in some tinpot village in Italy ‘Oooh so nice the food wowzers!!’ Well you can’t do that anymore unless you can cope with 47 degrees. Your summer holiday to lie on a beach reading a book is gonna cost a lot more 

I can see the benefit of appealing to self interest in that way. If it's more effective (and it could well be), then I'm all for it.

[leicsmac]

Ummmm....

[WigstonWanderer]

Gonna be a bad fire season here in Perth by the looks of it. Only November and fires already. Forecast 39c tomorrow and similar for about a week.

[leicsmac]

Said it before but it merits repeating in light of the rhetoric currently being bandied about:

 

If the UK (and other places) are going on about "stopping the boats" now, what's it going to be like if things continue as they are and in a couple of decades there are a few hundred million people in those boats (and whatever other form of transport), due to their homes becoming simply uninhabitable?