Climate Change - a poll

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, The Year Of The Fox said:

Some decent summers 

Yep, that's about right.

 

And isn't that an indictment of folks unable to see beyond the nose on their face.

 

Edit: mind you, those people might cast their minds back to last summer.

Edited 5 August 2023 by leicsmac

[The Year Of The Fox]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Yep, that's about right.

 

And isn't that an indictment of folks unable to see beyond the nose on their face.

 

Edit: mind you, those people might cast their minds back to last summer.

And yearn for it wistfully  

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, The Year Of The Fox said:

And yearn for it wistfully  

Again, exactly. With next to no consideration of events outside of the UK and how they might affect it, or in anywhere approaching the long term in the UK.

 

I mean, that's understandable, but...

[Bellend Sebastian]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Again, exactly. With next to no consideration of events outside of the UK and how they might affect it, or in anywhere approaching the long term in the UK.

 

I mean, that's understandable, but...

UK weather doing its best at the moment to stop folk taking climate change seriously, definitely. 13 degrees max temperature in Leicester today

[leicsmac]

6 minutes ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

UK weather doing its best at the moment to stop folk taking climate change seriously, definitely. 13 degrees max temperature in Leicester today

Yup.

 

*Cries in science communicator*

[st albans fox]

The media are pushing weather (eg.  This is the hottest week since) as justification of climate change and yet are surprised when people use that same argument back - it’s cold today etc etc 

 

the public need a little help

 

weather will dictate that there must be cooler to balance out the warmer. the atmosphere has to find equilibrium. you’ve seen many n Americans commenting that their part of the country has had a cool summer. That’s not a surprise because somewhere needs to be cooler if somewhere is hotter.  
 

climate change is a macro and seasonal regional weather is micro.  When the numbers are crunched at the end of the year the global averages will be warmer. And they will be warmer outside of the expectation taking El Niño into account.  And this is happening pretty much year after year. The acceleration against expectation is what’s relevant. The planets ability to react and deal with the warming is under immense pressure and what needs to be explained is at some point, we go beyond what it can do to regulate - feedback loops become established which will accelerate the increases.  Over many millennia the planet will deal with the current warming and as a species, we may make it to the other side with drastically reduced numbers but many others will not. 

[leicsmac]

43 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The media are pushing weather (eg.  This is the hottest week since) as justification of climate change and yet are surprised when people use that same argument back - it’s cold today etc etc 

 

the public need a little help

 

weather will dictate that there must be cooler to balance out the warmer. the atmosphere has to find equilibrium. you’ve seen many n Americans commenting that their part of the country has had a cool summer. That’s not a surprise because somewhere needs to be cooler if somewhere is hotter.  
 

climate change is a macro and seasonal regional weather is micro.  When the numbers are crunched at the end of the year the global averages will be warmer. And they will be warmer outside of the expectation taking El Niño into account.  And this is happening pretty much year after year. The acceleration against expectation is what’s relevant. The planets ability to react and deal with the warming is under immense pressure and what needs to be explained is at some point, we go beyond what it can do to regulate - feedback loops become established which will accelerate the increases.  Over many millennia the planet will deal with the current warming and as a species, we may make it to the other side with drastically reduced numbers but many others will not. 

Yeah, the thing that needs pointing out is that the general trend is upwards, and that such trends make increasingly extreme weather much more likely, not a certainty as such - but in terms of overall effects there isn't much difference between much more often and every day anyway, for exactly the reasons you state.

 

We have to stop those feedback loops before they occur. I just wish I - or anyone else with the power - knew the best way to accomplish this in the face of short term self interest.

[Sparrowhawk]

42 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The planets ability to react and deal with the warming is under immense pressure and what needs to be explained is at some point, we go beyond what it can do to regulate

I'm not sure the planet reacts, deals with or regulates anything. The laws of science just do their thing, depending on what the situation is. The planet will be here for an unimaginably long time whatever happens to the temperature on its surface, or the amount of CO2 in the its atmosphere.

 

46 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

weather will dictate that there must be cooler to balance out the warmer

Is this right? When there was Snowball Earth there wasn't much warmer to balance out the colder. If we help create the conditions for it to only get warmer, won't it do just that? (Yes, I know that at first there will be extremes in both directions, but given the right circumstances the whole place could ultimately become a broiling desert. Or a lump of ice. We need it in the middle.

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, Sparrowhawk said:

I'm not sure the planet reacts, deals with or regulates anything. The laws of science just do their thing, depending on what the situation is. The planet will be here for an unimaginably long time whatever happens to the temperature on its surface, or the amount of CO2 in the its atmosphere.

 

Is this right? When there was Snowball Earth there wasn't much warmer to balance out the colder. If we help create the conditions for it to only get warmer, won't it do just that? (Yes, I know that at first there will be extremes in both directions, but given the right circumstances the whole place could ultimately become a broiling desert. Or a lump of ice. We need it in the middle.

Well, the planet does reassert an equilibrium through the laws of thermodynamics, of course it isn't sentient as such, but I think that's mostly semantics.

 

And it is a point that should be made that yes, climate forcing weather results in a bell curve of sorts where you have the average temperatures and then extremes that are less common - what is happening now will result in the entire bell curve shifting to an increased temperature.

[st albans fox]

We’re seeing a quite intense monsoon season in India and active ex typhoons batter e China around Beijing.  Will these consequential affects of a warmer climate (warmer air holds more moisture = heavier rainfall = flooding)  force governments to react more quickly than they would like to due to public pressure? 
 

China is an interesting place because whilst the government doesn’t have to worry about short term policy making re being re elected, those at the top of the political trees are concerned with their own popularity.  Fwiw, though they are still building coal fired power stations, I think China will soon be at the forefront of green energy solutions and their energy mix will be greener than most come 2030. 

Edited 6 August 2023 by st albans fox

[leicsmac]

14 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

We’re seeing a quite intense monsoon season in India and active ex typhoons batter e China around Beijing.  Will these consequential affects of a warmer climate (warmer air holds more moisture = heavier rainfall = flooding)  force governments to react more quickly than they would like to due to public pressure? 
 

China is an interesting place because whilst the government doesn’t have to worry about short term policy making re being re elected, those at the top of the political trees are concerned with their own popularity.  Fwiw, though they are still building coal fired power stations, I think China will soon be at the forefront of green energy solutions and their energy mix will be greener than most come 2030. 

From my own studies for the dissertation (finishing it today!), China already takes the matter pretty damn seriously in terms of public engagement and government policymaking. In short, everyone is on board and so there isn't much need for "public pressure" as such - the additional coal plants being built are the most temporary fix and as you say come a couple of decades time they'll be at the forefront. Hopefully by that time too much damage won't have been done.

[Wymsey]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-66400905

 

We're so lucky in this area of the world (the UK)..

[leicsmac]

https://phys.org/news/2023-08-nasa-clocks-july-hottest-month.html

 

According to scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, July 2023 was hotter than any other month in the global temperature record.

 

 

 

[leicsmac]

https://www.sciencealert.com/landmark-us-trial-rules-young-people-have-a-right-to-a-clean-environment

 

"In a landmark climate trial, a Montana court on Monday ruled in favor of a group of youths who accused the western US state of violating their rights to a clean environment. 

 

District Court Judge Kathy Seeley said a state law preventing agencies from considering the impacts of greenhouse gases when issuing permits for fossil fuel development was unconstitutional. 

 

The case, Held v. State of Montana – brought by 16 plaintiffs ranging in age from five to 22 – has been closely watched because it could bolster similar litigation that has been filed across the country. 

 

"By prohibiting analysis of GHG0 (greenhouse gas) emissions and corresponding impacts to the climate… the MEPA (Montana Environmental Policy Act) Limitation violates Youth Plaintiffs' right to a clean and healthful environment and is unconstitutional on its face," Seeley wrote.  "Plaintiffs have a fundamental constitutional right to a clean and healthful environment, which includes climate as part of the environmental life-support system," Seeley added in her more than 100-page ruling."

 

Not sure how effective legal rulings will be in all of this, but a positive.

[ozleicester]

27 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.sciencealert.com/landmark-us-trial-rules-young-people-have-a-right-to-a-clean-environment

 

"In a landmark climate trial, a Montana court on Monday ruled in favor of a group of youths who accused the western US state of violating their rights to a clean environment. 

 

District Court Judge Kathy Seeley said a state law preventing agencies from considering the impacts of greenhouse gases when issuing permits for fossil fuel development was unconstitutional. 

 

The case, Held v. State of Montana – brought by 16 plaintiffs ranging in age from five to 22 – has been closely watched because it could bolster similar litigation that has been filed across the country. 

 

"By prohibiting analysis of GHG0 (greenhouse gas) emissions and corresponding impacts to the climate… the MEPA (Montana Environmental Policy Act) Limitation violates Youth Plaintiffs' right to a clean and healthful environment and is unconstitutional on its face," Seeley wrote.  "Plaintiffs have a fundamental constitutional right to a clean and healthful environment, which includes climate as part of the environmental life-support system," Seeley added in her more than 100-page ruling."

 

Not sure how effective legal rulings will be in all of this, but a positive.

Concievably, the ONLY thing that will change the conservatives actions.. is the risk of personal financial impact.

[HighPeakFox]

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/views/columns/62594/appeasement-climate-change-george-orwell

 

[leicsmac]

On 20/08/2023 at 04:58, HighPeakFox said:

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/views/columns/62594/appeasement-climate-change-george-orwell

 

I'm sorry I didn't read this piece before. It's absolutely spot on.

 

"...people utterly unable to grasp what age they are living in or what enemy they are fighting.” 

 

Yes. And that's not good when dealing with a threat to life that dwarfs any and all maniacal dictators of the past. One that will kill and cause unimaginable suffering at will and cannot be bought, reasoned with or negotiated with.

Edited 24 August 2023 by leicsmac

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66603577

 

Not one of them can be trusted with high office given the criticality of this issue over the next few decades.

[nnfox]

I think that this is quite concerning for humanity.  Antarctic sea ice at a record low.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66724246

[leicsmac]

14 minutes ago, nnfox said:

I think that this is quite concerning for humanity.  Antarctic sea ice at a record low.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66724246

Nah, all a "hoax" or nothing to worry about, apparently.

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66854670

 

Climate change made the storm that devastated the Libyan city of Derna, killing thousands of people, up to 50 times more likely, experts say. 

 

Up to 50% more rain had fallen as a result of human-caused greenhouse-gas emissions, climate scientists at the World Weather Attribution group found.

 

Great time for the current UK administration to roll back their pledges to address climate change, huh?

[reporterpenguin]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66857551

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, reporterpenguin said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66857551

picardfacepalm.gif

[Zear0]

21 minutes ago, reporterpenguin said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66857551

One of the problems (amongst many) with this government is that they think the general public are thick as pig sh*t. They're happy to ditch policies that they had in their manifesto and current policy in the hope of stiring up a non exists t culture war. People will see this as a government (bar a few single digit IQ folk who read the Express) with zero principles.

 

In an usual situation where I agree with JRM, when he said the public could see through their gerrymandering about voter ID he acknowledged that backfired. This will be the same. They live in this mental bubble that fortunately isn't representative of the majority of this country. 

 

Most of the measures they're dropping will make bills cheaper which is what people want and it can be turned against them so easily. 

[nnfox]

22 minutes ago, reporterpenguin said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66857551

I have to assume that this is one of those times where government leak stuff to the press ahead of any announcement to guage the reaction before they make the announcement.

 

It's a classic "Let's see if we can be popular, rather than right."

 

Although hard to see how that this will be popular amongst most humans living on planet earth.