AI - A force for Good or Evil??

[danny.]

I'm a software developer so I'll be out of a job within 5 years and so will 99% of the people that do similar jobs across the planet.

 

AI intelligence is growing near exponentially, not in a linear fashion. It's going to decimate so many industries, anything that involves mainly sitting in front of a computer will be replaced by AI, so that means most office workers. Although people that work in industries will be more unaffected, having millions more people unemployed will likely tip the economy way past breaking point.

 

For AI not to decimate society as we know it now, we'd need universal income, and enough to properly live on. Can't see that happening.

[danny.]

2 hours ago, Jattdogg said:

I know people say AI will get rid of a lot of jobs (we think it will) but apparently it will also create new jobs. Like to see what the person who has worked in construction for 25 years will be retrained to do? Will he/she have to learn how to use a computer and code?  

No, there won't be jobs that involve coding, ChatGPT and similar systems can already code very well and get hugely better at it every few months. There will be very few humans writing code, just a few writing prompts and others maybe QCing it at some level.

 

2 hours ago, Jattdogg said:

I don't think anyone can truly say there will be a net gain or loss of jobs right now but i can't  see how this benefits the working person if automation takes over. If less of us have jobs how are we paying for food/shelter or buying things? You can't get rich or sustain wealth if people don't work and don't spend. There is only so many of us that will work security for you before we turn on ya. Soo perhaps the rich will ensure we still have jobs...maybe...don't know. Anyone? Lol

There will definitely be a net loss of jobs, by a huge amount, because we are geared up to use computers for most things, and if it's a relatively process-driven job using a computer, AI will be able to do it far better, far faster and far cheaper.

 

There are loads of podcasts and articles about this by people very qualified in the field and sadly it's not a good outlook from anywhere. Most people just don't realise this yet as the media hardly talk about it.

[Stadt]

1 hour ago, orangecity23 said:

I've often wondered if the final evolution of VAR for refereeing would be AI based, as it would offer a means of "standardising" the officiating. All the bolded bits about shortcomings sound a) completely plausible b) very much like the existing standard of VAR

 

Seriously though, imagine trying to put together a training set to teach it what a handball was. "Oh, it's not working properly, what clips did you train with?" "I've got Wes Morgan vs Liverpool, Rob Holding does YMCA LCFC vs Arsenal, and Craig Dawson punchs the ball into the net, LCFC vs West Ham". "It's allowing you to play basketball, and awarding a penalty every time someone heads a cross clear".

Plus the way AI learns makes it very good at finding underlying patterns in big data sets - imagine it "learning" from existing ref clips that the correct action to make is to award everything in favour of Man Utd. Media would probably be very happy with the outcome, Gary Neville would think the AI had everything spot on.

Peter wAIton would be indistinguishable from the real thing, “I agree 100% with the on field referee”

[Dunge]

24 minutes ago, danny. said:

No, there won't be jobs that involve coding, ChatGPT and similar systems can already code very well and get hugely better at it every few months. There will be very few humans writing code, just a few writing prompts and others maybe QCing it at some level.

 

There will definitely be a net loss of jobs, by a huge amount, because we are geared up to use computers for most things, and if it's a relatively process-driven job using a computer, AI will be able to do it far better, far faster and far cheaper.

 

There are loads of podcasts and articles about this by people very qualified in the field and sadly it's not a good outlook from anywhere. Most people just don't realise this yet as the media hardly talk about it.

I’m not so convinced on the overarching impact of AI myself. There are plenty of opportunities where processes can be automated, but ultimately the logic, the spec, of what someone needs to do will surely have to remain in the hands of a human? The idea of AI writing code for us has massive possibilities in principle, but in practice it will still need humans to design it, surely?

 

What I can see is applications that enable people to design what they want in a very user-friendly way and then have that application do the coding for them. But in terms of creativity and confirming a spec, these will surely have to remain in the human realm?

[Dunge]

One area that I would really want to see heavy regulation is in creativity and the arts.  The need for a human playground in a hypothetical AI world will be more important than ever, and that’s a place where rich moguls could cheap people out. (I really hope the Hollywood writers win.)

 

Fortunately the Uncanny Valley effect is still very much in operation.

[danny.]

1 hour ago, Dunge said:

I’m not so convinced on the overarching impact of AI myself. There are plenty of opportunities where processes can be automated, but ultimately the logic, the spec, of what someone needs to do will surely have to remain in the hands of a human? The idea of AI writing code for us has massive possibilities in principle, but in practice it will still need humans to design it, surely?

 

What I can see is applications that enable people to design what they want in a very user-friendly way and then have that application do the coding for them. But in terms of creativity and confirming a spec, these will surely have to remain in the human realm?

So if currently in a company say you have a system designer, and then 30 coders, project managers, scrum masters, qc testers. Let AI take a prompt from the system designer and that’s 30/31 jobs gone. AI will probably be able to design the system too so you can take the entire  software house out the picture and the client can just tell AI what they want and it comes back in minutes instead of months. 
 

I agree creative tasks are harder to replace but only to a point too as most things “creatives” do aren’t really groundbreaking but copying and merging existing bits of creative work - which AI is great at, take Midjourney for example. Even if no creatives are replaced that’s a very small fraction of many industries not being replaced. 

[Jattdogg]

1 hour ago, danny. said:

No, there won't be jobs that involve coding, ChatGPT and similar systems can already code very well and get hugely better at it every few months. There will be very few humans writing code, just a few writing prompts and others maybe QCing it at some level.

 

Oh, of course. I work in IT and was just using that as an example seeing as AI is related to the field. The point being with careers ending because of this, then what do people with those skillsets do next? Not always so easy to train people to do something else and make the same or better £.

 

Cant see my FIL (now retired) going from being a welder to knitting christmas cardigans lol. Maybe not a great example but you get my point.

[whoareyaaa]

2 hours ago, danny. said:

I'm a software developer so I'll be out of a job within 5 years and so will 99% of the people that do similar jobs across the planet.

 

AI intelligence is growing near exponentially, not in a linear fashion. It's going to decimate so many industries, anything that involves mainly sitting in front of a computer will be replaced by AI, so that means most office workers. Although people that work in industries will be more unaffected, having millions more people unemployed will likely tip the economy way past breaking point.

 

For AI not to decimate society as we know it now, we'd need universal income, and enough to properly live on. Can't see that happening.

ai + crypto

Edited 3 November 2023 by whoareyaaa

[danny.]

Yup. That’s the problem. And it’s a huge problem and going to hit us sooner than people realise. 

[leicsmac]

I think there's a choice ahead where it's going to be near-full automation and UBI, or anarchy and/or dystopia as people either rebel against an increasingly unequal system or are crushed by it.

 

Here's hoping it's the former.

 

 

[Nalis]

Updates in technology to reduce worker hours on a task just means dumping even more work on an employee to cover their hours rather than creating a shorter working week for all. Same applies with AI.

Edited 3 November 2023 by Nalis

[WigstonWanderer]

1 hour ago, Jattdogg said:

Oh, of course. I work in IT and was just using that as an example seeing as AI is related to the field. The point being with careers ending because of this, then what do people with those skillsets do next? Not always so easy to train people to do something else and make the same or better £.

 

Cant see my FIL (now retired) going from being a welder to knitting christmas cardigans lol. Maybe not a great example but you get my point.

I know it wasn’t what you meant but the physical jobs like tradies, etc are likely to be the last to be replaced. That will require actual robots, that are likely to be a more distant phase 2.

[Jattdogg]

19 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

I know it wasn’t what you meant but the physical jobs like tradies, etc are likely to be the last to be replaced. That will require actual robots, that are likely to be a more distant phase 2.

For sure but where possible it will cut jobs.

 

Should i think about hoarding water, TP, canned veges?  Bunker? Lol

[WigstonWanderer]

1 minute ago, Jattdogg said:

For sure but where possible it will cut jobs.

 

Should i think about hoarding water, TP, canned veges?  Bunker? Lol

😂 Difficult to know the outcome really, but some sort of social control of big tech, industry, etc surely, or we’ll be back to feudal times, but without the peasantry really having a role, or way of making a living.

[Dunge]

6 hours ago, danny. said:

So if currently in a company say you have a system designer, and then 30 coders, project managers, scrum masters, qc testers. Let AI take a prompt from the system designer and that’s 30/31 jobs gone. AI will probably be able to design the system too so you can take the entire  software house out the picture and the client can just tell AI what they want and it comes back in minutes instead of months. 
 

I agree creative tasks are harder to replace but only to a point too as most things “creatives” do aren’t really groundbreaking but copying and merging existing bits of creative work - which AI is great at, take Midjourney for example. Even if no creatives are replaced that’s a very small fraction of many industries not being replaced. 

See, I just don’t believe that. So a system designer sticks something into a prompt for even a complex AI - the result is only going to be as good as the request. It’s going to be full of flaws, and worse than that potential security risks. It’s all well and good for creating a model off a shelf, but how often does that happen in the business? A lot of managers want something and don’t even know what it is. And are they going to be held liable in court if they fall foul of something like GDPR because their AI system is full of holes?

 

I can see it cutting down the number of people needed in a tech team, and indeed getting projects completed quicker. But there will still be a need for several people with different expertise - including people who can interpret and test the logic of the code that’s been produced because it will still be that company that gets sued when things go t*ts up - to go through a project.

 

AI is a tool. It can bring great advantages of speed, but it can’t tell you what you want in the first place. That’s how I see it anyway. Maybe it’ll prove me wrong but I reckon anyone who thinks they can chop nearly their entire workforce and just rely on AI is in for a big shock.

 

 

PS. As for Crypto, don’t get me started on that. The whole thing’s a lie.

[danny.]

With respect, it doesn’t sound like you’re following what the latest models can do. 

[whoareyaaa]

18 hours ago, Dunge said:

See, I just don’t believe that. So a system designer sticks something into a prompt for even a complex AI - the result is only going to be as good as the request. It’s going to be full of flaws, and worse than that potential security risks. It’s all well and good for creating a model off a shelf, but how often does that happen in the business? A lot of managers want something and don’t even know what it is. And are they going to be held liable in court if they fall foul of something like GDPR because their AI system is full of holes?

 

I can see it cutting down the number of people needed in a tech team, and indeed getting projects completed quicker. But there will still be a need for several people with different expertise - including people who can interpret and test the logic of the code that’s been produced because it will still be that company that gets sued when things go t*ts up - to go through a project.

 

AI is a tool. It can bring great advantages of speed, but it can’t tell you what you want in the first place. That’s how I see it anyway. Maybe it’ll prove me wrong but I reckon anyone who thinks they can chop nearly their entire workforce and just rely on AI is in for a big shock.

 

 

PS. As for Crypto, don’t get me started on that. The whole thing’s a lie.

It will effect a high percentage of jobs like computers have done, with manufacturing and now self checkout etc replacing the need for till workers obviously its not going to happen overnight but over time AI could cut a lot of jobs.. I don't think it will be something to worry about though it's going to take years.

 

as for crypto its a store of value like gold and once etf is approved then it will becoming mainstream, that's why banks like JP Morgan are building blockchains and such into the banking systems.

 

https://www.jpmorgan.com/onyx/about

Edited 4 November 2023 by whoareyaaa

[Dunge]

59 minutes ago, danny. said:

With respect, it doesn’t sound like you’re following what the latest models can do. 

What should I Google then?

[danny.]

Not sure, how much have you used ChatGPT 4 to generate code?

[Dunge]

1 hour ago, whoareyaaa said:

It will effect a high percentage of jobs like computers have done, with manufacturing and now self checkout etc replacing the need for till workers obviously its not going to happen overnight but over time AI could cut a lot of jobs.. I don't think it will be something to worry about though it's going to take years.

 

as for crypto its a store of value like gold and once etf is approved then it will becoming mainstream, that's why banks like JP Morgan are building blockchains and such into the banking systems.

 

https://www.jpmorgan.com/onyx/about

Regarding Crypto, I don’t see that it’s like gold. Gold is a commodity, it has an inherent value and use to people. Its inert nature, relative rarity and desirability makes it an object of value across cultures. If someone tomorrow decided the value of gold was zero, it would come back up again precisely because it’s something tangible to represent value. Crypto represents value but it isn’t tangible. If it was decided tomorrow that a given Crypto currency had a value of zero then there’s no reason it should recover because it has no inherent value beyond generally accepted confidence.

 

What that link is describing, for me, is more of a hybrid - looking to utilise some of the technological developments that have come from Crypto, without necessarily using Crypto currencies themselves. But the fact remains that if the banking system builds a reliance on Crypto without having control over it then we’ll just end up with another banking crisis like the late 2000’s where the banks, regulators and populace all allowed a system that they didn’t understand to get out of control. Combine that with AI and all I can see is an accident waiting to happen unless they properly limit it.

[Dunge]

1 minute ago, danny. said:

Not sure, how much have you used ChatGPT 4 to generate code?

I haven’t personally but I know of it and internal analysis of it. I was more wondering whether there was a particular form of AI that you were considering, more than ChatGPT.

[danny.]

In terms of code I’ve only used ChatGPT, and even low cost 3.5 models can code in seconds what would take a human days, entire web applications and APIs with fully annotated code.

[Dunge]

8 minutes ago, danny. said:

In terms of code I’ve only used ChatGPT, and even low cost 3.5 models can code in seconds what would take a human days, entire web applications and APIs with fully annotated code.

Yes, I’d concur with that. And I’d agree that it would cost jobs if they were “pure coding” jobs. But I think about where I work and its implications there - if they didn’t have people around who could apply it, understand it, test it and manage it there could be disaster.

 

I can see there being new skills in people interpreting a project into an AI request and then management of that.

[worth_the_wait]

All this hype about AI.    You're forgetting something.  

 

Artificial Intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.

[danny.]

25 minutes ago, Dunge said:

Yes, I’d concur with that. And I’d agree that it would cost jobs if they were “pure coding” jobs. But I think about where I work and its implications there - if they didn’t have people around who could apply it, understand it, test it and manage it there could be disaster.

 

I can see there being new skills in people interpreting a project into an AI request and then management of that.

Yea I totally agree. But that will be 1-2 jobs replacing many times that. It’s still going to decimate the industry.