US Presidential Election 2024

[Dr The Singh]

12 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Which is rather sad considering that people like Hinchcliffe are saying what Trump and the Repubs really think of such ethnic groups and they'll turn on them as soon as they stop being useful for them to get power.

Tell me about it

[Jattdogg]

So,T-1 week or so until Trump is the winner?

 

Foxestalk poll needed?

 

 

[leicsmac]

Fun fact: If Trump does win, it will likely remain a fact that the only time that astronauts have landed on the Moon will be when the President of the United States was a felon.

 

Apparently crooked leaders are good for manned spaceflight programs. Who knew?

Edited 29 October 2024 by leicsmac

[Jattdogg]

As long as the losers of the election don't threaten to come up here to the great white north,  I am content lol.

[MPH]

7 hours ago, Dr The Singh said:

I work with alot of yanks and just recently have come from there.  What surprised me was how many ethnic groups support Trump, but there are so many parrelels between us and them.  2 biggest reasons, immigration and expense.  They relate both together, for example, so many latino's are having to move from Miami to other areas because immigration has made cheap housing expensive and increase supply of cheap labour.  

 

The global economy and inflation they seem to believe Trump would have handled it alot better.  

 

So just like the conservatives of the UK, the democrats are seen as poor termers.

 

 

 

I passed a truck today, covered in Trump stickers, Trump flags.. driven by a black guy… I nearly got a photo but the car in front of me was going too slow not withstanding the fact it would have looked a  bit weird… but this was not a  guy latching on to Trump  because he doesn’t like Harris or for an extra $20 a week in his pocket… he was all in.

Edited 29 October 2024 by MPH

[MPH]

Is this just the Elon spin? Is he really leading by that much? Surely not…I mean, the way I read this, it’s just more republicans coming out to  vote early compared to last time round and not actually leading? Unless on missing something?

 

 

Edited 29 October 2024 by MPH

[Jattdogg]

1 hour ago, MPH said:

Is this just the Elon spin? Is he really leading by that much? Surely not…I mean, the way I read this, it’s just more republicans coming out to  vote early compared to last time round and not actually leading? Unless on missing something?

 

 

It's all a bit word salad to me. More repubs appear to be voting earlier which might tie into a narrative that if somehow dems win than something shady happened lol.

 

This could have an opposite impact. It could encourage those dems who might not vote to say "eff that i better go vote".

 

End of the day I will be more surprised that Harris wins but anything is possible at this point.

[Sly]

So polling day is next Wednesday then. 
 

As you can tell, I’m really engaged and keeping up with this. 

[Sly]

8 hours ago, Jattdogg said:

So,T-1 week or so until Trump is the winner?

 

Foxestalk poll needed?

 

 

It’d be very British screwed and based on how the forum is more centre left, it would be a Harris landslide on here im

assuming. 
 

The fact and all we see is that Trump is a loon. 

[leicsmac]

7 hours ago, MPH said:

Is this just the Elon spin? Is he really leading by that much? Surely not…I mean, the way I read this, it’s just more republicans coming out to  vote early compared to last time round and not actually leading? Unless on missing something?

 

 

Is such discussion of results before polling closes even legal?

[Sly]

4 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Is such discussion of results before polling closes even legal?

Welcome to Elon Musks Twitter,

where it’s all free speech, lies and hyperbole. Basically it’s that bad now, it may as well be all classed as one of @Finnegan Tier 4 sources. 

[leicsmac]

34 minutes ago, Sly said:

Welcome to Elon Musks Twitter,

where it’s all free speech, lies and hyperbole. Basically it’s that bad now, it may as well be all classed as one of @Finnegan Tier 4 sources. 

Yeah, fair to say.

 

Fivethirtyeight now has is 52-48 in favour of Trump, so a slight closing there over the last few days.

[fox_favourite]

Still worries me that a country the size of America can only produce candidates like Trump, Biden in recent years.

 

You know if Trump wins and WW3 kicks off, he'll be straight down the bunker and won't care about anyone else.  (that's my impression of the man's personality, nothing to do with politics. I just don't like him as a person) 

Edited 30 October 2024 by fox_favourite

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgl490zrz45o

 

Good analysis of the two candidates on policies outside their border from the Beeb.

 

I hope that the lady that thinks Trump (if he wins) cannot stall the green energy transition is right.

[fox_up_north]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgl490zrz45o

 

Good analysis of the two candidates on policies outside their border from the Beeb.

 

I hope that the lady that thinks Trump (if he wins) cannot stall the green energy transition is right.

My takeaway is both a rubbish, in their own ways, but Trump is more rubbish.

[MPH]

3 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Yeah, fair to say.

 

Fivethirtyeight now has is 52-48 in favour of Trump, so a slight closing there over the last few days.

 Is that nationally or just in the swing states?

[chuddy8]

3 hours ago, fox_favourite said:

Still worries me that a country the size of America can only produce candidates like Trump, Biden in recent years.

 

You know if Trump wins and WW3 kicks off, he'll be straight down the bunker and won't care about anyone else.  (that's my impression of the man's personality, nothing to do with politics. I just don't like him as a person) 

I think it's fair to say that regardless of what you think of him or his domestic policies, WW3 is far, far less likely under trump than under a democrat.

[MPH]

3 hours ago, fox_favourite said:

Still worries me that a country the size of America can only produce candidates like Trump, Biden in recent years.

 

You know if Trump wins and WW3 kicks off, he'll be straight down the bunker and won't care about anyone else.  (that's my impression of the man's personality, nothing to do with politics. I just don't like him as a person) 

 

to be fair, he’s always said he doesn’t like war because it’s too expensive.  Not because of the humanitarian abuses, the loss of life, the way it effects civilization, but no, because it’s too expensive.

 

still, I’ll take it.

[MPH]

3 hours ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgl490zrz45o

 

Good analysis of the two candidates on policies outside their border from the Beeb.

 

I hope that the lady that thinks Trump (if he wins) cannot stall the green energy transition is right.

 

let’s hope  his new Bromance with Elon   Brings a bit more understanding on the benefits/ transitions to renewables.. 

[leicsmac]

16 minutes ago, MPH said:

 Is that nationally or just in the swing states?

It's an analysis based on multiple outcomes run from data on all the states including the swing ones.

 

Out of every hundred times the model is ran, Trump wins 52 and Harris wins 48.

 

16 minutes ago, chuddy8 said:

I think it's fair to say that regardless of what you think of him or his domestic policies, WW3 is far, far less likely under trump than under a democrat.

Depends how far ahead you look. His policies will lead to diminished resources in various areas that could well be a catalyst for war.

 

13 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

to be fair, he’s always said he doesn’t like war because it’s too expensive.  Not because of the humanitarian abuses, the loss of life, the way it effects civilization, but no, because it’s too expensive.

 

still, I’ll take it.

"I'm a businessman. Blood is big expense."

 

I'd take that too, but see above.

 

Just now, MPH said:

 

let’s hope  his new Bromance with Elon   Brings a bit more understanding on the benefits/ transitions to renewables.. 

And on the future itself, really.

[st albans fox]

18 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

It's an analysis based on multiple outcomes run from data on all the states including the swing ones.

 

Out of every hundred times the model is ran, Trump wins 52 and Harris wins 48.

 

Depends how far ahead you look. His policies will lead to diminished resources in various areas that could well be a catalyst for war.

 

"I'm a businessman. Blood is big expense."

 

I'd take that too, but see above.

 

And on the future itself, really.

Back to his narcissism- he will want a legacy. If someone gets into his head that he could be remembered as the man who brought peace to the Middle East and more importantly ‘saved the planet’ then you might find his approach to certain things isn’t what you’d expect. 
 

remember that he doesn’t need to be elected again - so we’ll see a possible change in his attempts to appeal to certain demographics.  
 

having said all this, I have a nagging feeling that Harris will unexpectedly come through - which in light of the republicans effectively claiming victory could turn very nasty. 
 

 

[leicsmac]

24 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Back to his narcissism- he will want a legacy. If someone gets into his head that he could be remembered as the man who brought peace to the Middle East and more importantly ‘saved the planet’ then you might find his approach to certain things isn’t what you’d expect. 
 

remember that he doesn’t need to be elected again - so we’ll see a possible change in his attempts to appeal to certain demographics.  
 

having said all this, I have a nagging feeling that Harris will unexpectedly come through - which in light of the republicans effectively claiming victory could turn very nasty. 
 

 

Think this is a fair argument, however:

 

- not sure why he wouldn't have done the "right" thing before then in terms of codifying his legacy

 

and

 

- it's the ones behind him that might also get in the way there

 

I do hope Harris can pull the win out of the fire here to make such questions moot, but sadly there may be serious unrest no matter the result.

[LiberalFox]

I still haven't heard a good reason why Harris will win. I'd like that to be the case but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. 

 

I agree that Trump will want a legacy. I expect some kind of space milestone. 

 

Most people think he'll want some kind of foreign policy win too. 

 

I don't know what his domestic goals will be if any. 

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

I still haven't heard a good reason why Harris will win. I'd like that to be the case but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. 

 

I agree that Trump will want a legacy. I expect some kind of space milestone. 

 

Most people think he'll want some kind of foreign policy win too. 

 

I don't know what his domestic goals will be if any. 

 

18 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Fun fact: If Trump does win, it will likely remain a fact that the only time that astronauts have landed on the Moon will be when the President of the United States was a felon.

As for domestic goals, more brutality towards "illegals" will be seen as a win, I would think.

[Detroit Blues]

37 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

I still haven't heard a good reason why Harris will win. I'd like that to be the case but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. 

 

I don't know that Harris will win, nobody knows that, but she certainly can win. In fact, it wouldn't really even be a huge surprise. Polling has it basically as a coin flip a week before the election. All Harris needs is for Democrats to turn out and she will likely win. 

 

Perhaps it is not evident over the pond, but the Democratic base is significantly larger than the Republican base. The only way Republicans win elections at the national level, is by lowering turnout (gerrymandering, purging voters from voting rolls prior to the election, good ol' fashion voter intimidation of ethnic minorities, burning ballot boxes, restricting the number of polling locations and polling hours, sabotaging the United States Postal Service to reduce voting by mail), bankrolling 3rd party candidates to pull away progressive/young voters (JFK Jr in 2024, Jill Stein in 2016/2024, Ralph Nader in 2000), Partisan Supreme Court tactics (Florida 2000),  and their electoral college advantage which allows them to win the presidency without winning the popular vote. Republicans can and will do anything they can, legal or otherwise to win elections, and yet they still lose time and time again because they are less popular and have a smaller voting bloc. This is a minority party attempting to control national politics.

 

So the gameplan is simple, if all the Democrats show up and vote for Harris, she'll probably win in a similar manner as Biden in 2020. She needs to win the blue wall (Pennsylvania-Michigan-Wisconsin) which almost always votes in the same direction. One of the big late factors in Harris possibly winning Pennsylvania is the Republicans calling Puerto Rico a garbage island. There are something like 200k Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania.  If she gets that, she probably wins the election. She probably won't win Georgia, like Biden did in 2020, but North Carolina is definitely in play because the Republican running for governor is literally a black Nazi. She might lose Arizona and or Nevada, but she can still win without them. 

 

I expect it to look something like this - 

 

If she lost North Carolina, she would still win 270-268. 

 

37 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

I agree that Trump will want a legacy. I expect some kind of space milestone. 

 

 

I don't think he cares what people will think about him down the line. Nothing from his 2016 presidency, or 2020 insurrection leads me to believe that. However, even if he somehow decides to care about Space, NASA already has like the next 2 decades of missions planned. You don't just decide to do something in space and then do it within the same Presidential term. JFK challenged America to land on the moon by the end of the decade, back in 1962, and they landed on the moon in 1969, 7 years later. 

 

The more likely scenario is that he'll just take credit for whatever NASA does, like the moon landings scheduled in 2026 via the Artemis program. He'll probably like make them stick a MAGA flag on the moon, or something stupid

 

 

37 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

I don't know what his domestic goals will be if any. 

Deport millions of Illegal immigrants, utilizing ICE like the Gestapo. 

Persuing retribution against his political rivals.

Using the office of the Presidency to personally enrich himself (again).

Appoint more MAGA cronies at all levels of government - Judges, Generals, Beaurocrats.

Roll back environmental protections (again).

Strike a "peace agreement" with Ukraine, that allows Russia to consolidate their gains and give them time to regroup and re-arm for their next European invasion.

Significantly weaken NATO. 

Start up another trade war with China.

Edited 30 October 2024 by Detroit Blues