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leicsmac

US Presidential Election 2024

By leicsmac, in General Chat

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MPH

MPH

Posted
Posted (edited)

So I’m beginning to think that it’s looking a bit grim for the Dems. For a few reasons. This poll was done by ABC news. Network and they are rated as left leaning. News networks seem to produce polls that somewhat flatter their political preferences. Also most polls are not able to reach the rural support that is overwhelmingly right leaning. Especially in the swing states. With that in mind, ABC has Trump up 62-31 in the swing states.  That’s very significant. It must be said that the 3 Dem states have a noticeably smaller leader than in 2020 too and considering that both in 2016 and 2020 Trump has had more votes than the polling suggested ( because of the rural votes) then I see it as looming very grim for the Dems.

IMG_6553.png

Edited by MPH
leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
  • Author
Posted
7 minutes ago, MPH said:

So I’m beginning to think that it’s looking a bit grim for the Dems. For a few reasons. This poll was done by ABC news. Network and they are rated as left leaning. News networks seem to produce polls that somewhat flatter their political preferences. Also most polls are not able to reach the rural support that is overwhelmingly right leaning. Especially in the swing states. With that in mind, ABC has Trump up 62-31 in the swing states.  That’s very significant. It must be said that the 3 Dem states have a noticeably smaller leader than in 2020 too and considering that both in 2016 and 2020 Trump has had more votes than the polling suggested ( because of the rural votes) then I see it as looming very grim for the Dems.

IMG_6553.png

This has been analysed before.

 

If the margin of error breaks for Trump in the same way it did in 2016 and 2020, then he'll likely win with a decent majority.

 

If being the key word in that sentence.

Jattdogg

Jattdogg

Posted
Posted

Meh, we are all prepared for a trump presidency. Used to his ways. Another 4 years and I think the movement will be over. At least Trump himself will be as he can't run again. All the regular republicans are sucking him off because they have to. Once they don't have to anymore, it might return to somewhat normal. Unless his sons run but they are not the same coont as he is.

 

Polls are too close to call either way.

urban.spaceman

urban.spaceman

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Jattdogg said:

Meh, we are all prepared for a trump presidency. Used to his ways. Another 4 years and I think the movement will be over. At least Trump himself will be as he can't run again. All the regular republicans are sucking him off because they have to. Once they don't have to anymore, it might return to somewhat normal. Unless his sons run but they are not the same coont as he is.

 

Polls are too close to call either way.

He will be far, far worse this time.

  • Like 1
SpacedX

SpacedX

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Jattdogg said:

Meh, we are all prepared for a trump presidency. Used to his ways. Another 4 years and I think the movement will be over. At least Trump himself will be as he can't run again. All the regular republicans are sucking him off because they have to. Once they don't have to anymore, it might return to somewhat normal. Unless his sons run but they are not the same coont as he is.

 

Polls are too close to call either way.

Disagree. The party and its voters are now given over to the alt-right. Terrifying to think that actually, there are even scarier presidential candidates than Donald Trump waiting in the wings. 

  • Like 2
Jattdogg

Jattdogg

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, SpacedX said:

Disagree. The party and its voters are now given over to the alt-right. Terrifying to think that actually, there are even scarier presidential candidates than Donald Trump waiting in the wings. 

Let's see in 1 week or 4 years lol

Zear0

Zear0

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

This isn't actually possible is it?

 

 

 

Who'd have though the "dead heat" election would end up in a tie.

ozleicester

ozleicester

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Dunge said:

Personally I would welcome a dead heat, and the rarely-seen Rock-Paper-Scissors standoff.

Ive got the most beautiful rock, the best paper, and no-one has sharper scissors than me!

reporterpenguin

reporterpenguin

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Jattdogg said:

https://www.270towin.com/content/electoral-college-ties

 

That explains it.

 

Essentially, the house votes to choose the prez and the senate votes to choose the VP.

 

Imagine President Trump and VP Harris or vice versa lol

 

Something tells me of that happened with Trump being VP he wouldn't take it.

Maybe they could split it like in a divorce?

 

Trump gets it on the weekend and every third Friday?

  • Haha 3
leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 minutes ago, pmcla26 said:

If it was a dead heat, they could just give it to the legitimate candidate and sack the other one off that shouldn't even be in the running then. 

The darkly hilarious thing is that depending on who you talk to, this could be either candidate.

  • Haha 1
pmcla26

pmcla26

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

The darkly hilarious thing is that depending on who you talk to, this could be either candidate.

Exactly, you'll never know who I mean now :thumbup:

  • Haha 1
ajthefox

ajthefox

Posted
Posted

Dead heat, winner to be decided by an old fashioned duel.

 

Trump would get his head blown off whilst trying to work out how to fire a gun. The Republicans would then begrudgingly respect Harris for her gun(wo)manship and start hootin' and hollerin'. Donald is quickly forgotten. American politics/society evolves in a considered, and progressive way. Everybody wins.

 

leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
  • Author
Posted
6 minutes ago, Foxdiamond said:

Still staggers me that a bloke who basically instigated the Capitol riot etc is able to run again plus that so many will vote for him

I mean, I get the legally - there's no rule against someone who has done as he has done from running again.

 

It's just difficult to comprehend exactly how so many people are clearly OK with electing a man who has such views on women, minority groups, the future of the biosphere and is clearly willing to disrupt the democratic political process for the sake of his own power.

  • Like 1
st albans fox

st albans fox

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I mean, I get the legally - there's no rule against someone who has done as he has done from running again.

 

It's just difficult to comprehend exactly how so many people are clearly OK with electing a man who has such views on women, minority groups, the future of the biosphere and is clearly willing to disrupt the democratic political process for the sake of his own power.

Yeah yeah - but apart from that ……

 

  • Haha 1
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