US Presidential Election 2024

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

Think it’s lose lose regarding the Ukraine situation, the way to end the proxy war will result in some concessions but I’m not sure what that’ll look like. The potential escalation in the Middle East is the one I’m more concerned with, war with Iran is probably inevitable under Harris. 

Given Trump's past commentary and actions re the Iranians, I'd say that's pretty even either way too.

 

WRT Ukraine, status quo ante bellum isn't going to happen, the most likely deal IMO is Russia keeping what they've taken now in exchange for Ukraine being admitted into NATO (and so being pretty much insured from further attack) but neither side have been worn down enough to really want that at the moment, it seems.

[leicsmac]

Donald Trump told a rally in Wisconsin he wanted to protect women "whether the women like it or not" from "missiles" and "migrants".

 

Good to see where the man (and those he's setting an example for) stands on women's consent, then.

[The Horse's Mouth]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Given Trump's past commentary and actions re the Iranians, I'd say that's pretty even either way too.

 

WRT Ukraine, status quo ante bellum isn't going to happen, the most likely deal IMO is Russia keeping what they've taken now in exchange for Ukraine being admitted into NATO (and so being pretty much insured from further attack) but neither side have been worn down enough to really want that at the moment, it seems.

It’s definitely more likely with Kamala, she’s supported by neocons for a reason, she is the pro war machine candidate. I wouldn’t say it’s a guaranteed it won’t happen under Trump though, it could be a case of Israel forcing America’s hand.
 

I think you’re probably on the money with that, I don’t think Russia will budge regarding NATO though, they’ll be a special arrangement I’m sure.I think that conflict will be resolved by the next election. But I reckon we’re still around 2 years for that.

[ozleicester]

Can anyone accurately inform me why the usa (both sides) is Israel's bitch?

[leicsmac]

Just now, The Horse's Mouth said:

It’s definitely more likely with Kamala, she’s supported by neocons for a reason, she is the pro war machine candidate. I wouldn’t say it’s a guaranteed it won’t happen under Trump though, it could be a case of Israel forcing America’s hand.
 

I think you’re probably on the money with that, I don’t think Russia will budge regarding NATO though, they’ll be a special arrangement I’m sure.I think that conflict will be resolved by the next election. But I reckon we’re still around 2 years for that.

If they don't then the Ukrainians certainly won't budge themselves considering it would just leave them open to being attacked again a little while down the line. There would have to be at least some security guarantee backed up by the larger players.

 

TBh though I've always thought the line that Trump was less of a warmongering candidate total BS that's somehow managed to take hold anyway; given the contempt he has for various nations and peoples the main reason something bigger didn't happen on his watch was mostly luck that some spots (Taiwan, Korean DMZ, ME/Iran etc) didn't flare up as much while he was in charge.

[The Horse's Mouth]

1 minute ago, ozleicester said:

Can anyone accurately inform me why the usa (both sides) is Israel's bitch?

https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/summary?cycle=All&ind=Q05&recipdetail=S

[ozleicester]

2 minutes ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/summary?cycle=All&ind=Q05&recipdetail=S

I can see the relevance of this...but there is much more to it... a massive percentage of the us public seems to back them no matter what

[Zear0]

5 minutes ago, ozleicester said:

I can see the relevance of this...but there is much more to it... a massive percentage of the us public seems to back them no matter what

Distrust of Arabs

[The Horse's Mouth]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

If they don't then the Ukrainians certainly won't budge themselves considering it would just leave them open to being attacked again a little while down the line. There would have to be at least some security guarantee backed up by the larger players.

 

TBh though I've always thought the line that Trump was less of a warmongering candidate total BS that's somehow managed to take hold anyway; given the contempt he has for various nations and peoples the main reason something bigger didn't happen on his watch was mostly luck that some spots (Taiwan, Korean DMZ, ME/Iran etc) didn't flare up as much while he was in charge.

It’ll be some of an informal tie with NATO that’ll deny troops or missiles being stationed there I think. 
 

I do somewhat agree with your view there, as in the idea Trump was such a great statesmen and people didn’t try anything on his watch is stupid. But the American war machine doesn’t need justified cause to do most of the wars it’s done in my lifetime, how many of the wars the US escalated during the Obama, Bush and Clinton years been remotely justified? They were purely for imperialistic reason 

[leicsmac]

6 minutes ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

It’ll be some of an informal tie with NATO that’ll deny troops or missiles being stationed there I think. 
 

I do somewhat agree with your view there, as in the idea Trump was such a great statesmen and people didn’t try anything on his watch is stupid. But the American war machine doesn’t need justified cause to do most of the wars it’s done in my lifetime, how many of the wars the US escalated during the Obama, Bush and Clinton years been remotely justified? They were purely for imperialistic reason 

Absolutely no disagreement there.

[grobyfox1990]

1 hour ago, MPH said:

So  the comedian  who was at trumps Rally called Puerto Rico a floating island of trash. No bueno. Even Trumps campeign distanced themselves from that comment.  But then  Biden, who claims he misspoke,   shot back saying “ the only garbage he sees are  his supporters”

 

cue outrage from the trump team and the MAGA brigade. Later that day Trump is seen doing an interview wearing a high vis jibber sitting in a refuse lorry

 

that was mildly entertaining.

This was genuinely brilliant. And a decent outlook into both campaigns. The same unacceptable slur was made by both sides.

Harris - rant and holler and demand Puerto Ricans vote for her

Trump - Put on a high vis, do an interview from a bin truck and hoot the horn.

[Dunge]

33 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

If they don't then the Ukrainians certainly won't budge themselves considering it would just leave them open to being attacked again a little while down the line. There would have to be at least some security guarantee backed up by the larger players.

 

TBh though I've always thought the line that Trump was less of a warmongering candidate total BS that's somehow managed to take hold anyway; given the contempt he has for various nations and peoples the main reason something bigger didn't happen on his watch was mostly luck that some spots (Taiwan, Korean DMZ, ME/Iran etc) didn't flare up as much while he was in charge.

I’ve wondered lately whether it would be possible to have a delayed agreement, where the West agrees now to officially recognise the invaded areas of Ukraine as Russian in around 15 years’ time - ie when Putin’s likely shuffled off this mortal coil. Meanwhile the rest of Ukraine doesn’t join NATO but groundwork would be laid for future conflict and defence, eg the imposition of a no-fly zone.

[leicsmac]

27 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

This was genuinely brilliant. And a decent outlook into both campaigns. The same unacceptable slur was made by both sides.

Harris - rant and holler and demand Puerto Ricans vote for her

Trump - Put on a high vis, do an interview from a bin truck and hoot the horn.

Except that even though Biden probably shouldn't have said it, it was firstly as a response rather than spontaneously expressing sentiment and secondly not targeting a particular already derided and marginalised demographic (unless we're counting poor rural white neighbourhoods, which is fair enough).

 

Pardon me for calling out the equivalence with no context as lazy.

 

Edit: even though perception trumps facts these days and a lot of people will draw the selfsame conclusion.

 

 

Edited 31 October 2024 by leicsmac

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I’ve wondered lately whether it would be possible to have a delayed agreement, where the West agrees now to officially recognise the invaded areas of Ukraine as Russian in around 15 years’ time - ie when Putin’s likely shuffled off this mortal coil. Meanwhile the rest of Ukraine doesn’t join NATO but groundwork would be laid for future conflict and defence, eg the imposition of a no-fly zone.

Yeah, that's another possible.

 

Whoever wins, the diplomatic corps will need to be top notch.

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, ozleicester said:

Can anyone accurately inform me why the usa (both sides) is Israel's bitch?

(It’s cos the Jews run the world - didn’t you know ?)

 

apart from the democracy angle, strategic foreign interest and ever increasing tech/miltary development stuff,  (and the Americans have always preferred a winner to a plucky loser) there is a Jewish population in the USA  who are disproportionately represented in politics and successful business which clearly has an influence. over the next few decades, you will see other demographics increase their numbers and influence there to the degree that this will change.   It’s already happening. 
 

if kamala wins next week, you’ll definitely see a drift over the next administration towards what you’d probably consider a more equitable scenario.  But change will be fairly slow because that’s just how it is. 

Edited 31 October 2024 by st albans fox

[urban.spaceman]

 
 

I do wonder if he's ever had to actually open a door in real life?

 

[Torquay Gunner]

9 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

 
 

I do wonder if he's ever had to actually open a door in real life?

 

Maybe it’s one of those “black jobs” he’s always talking about. 

[MPH]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Which just goes to show how smooth "humour" can cover up real feelings and sway audiences, given it was a guest signed off by the Trump campaign that basically stated what they really think of brown-skinned people and the places where they live in the first instance.

 

Trump campaign can’t really distance themselves from that comment- they and they alone are the ones invited him and you are 100% responsible for what goes on at your own rally…

Edited 31 October 2024 by MPH

[Monk]

I think election night and the following days next week are going to be rather crazy. Maybe an understatement. Expect to see lots of MAGA interference and violence at polling stations, lots of controversy over swing states in the courts. Even if the outcome is fairly clear I doubt it will be finalised for some time.  

[Torquay Gunner]

9 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

Trump campaign can’t really distance themselves from that comment- they and they alone are the ones invited him and you are 100% responsible for what goes on at your own rally…

Interesting what effect if any this may have, as of 2021 there were nearly six million Puerto Ricans entitled to vote.  That is a large demographic to wind up. 

[grobyfox1990]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Except that even though Biden probably shouldn't have said it, it was firstly as a response rather than spontaneously expressing sentiment and secondly not targeting a particular already derided and marginalised demographic (unless we're counting poor rural white neighbourhoods, which is fair enough).

 

Pardon me for calling out the equivalence with no context as lazy.

 

Edit: even though perception trumps facts these days and a lot of people will draw the selfsame conclusion.

 

 

Biden called Trump supporters garbage. McDonald's man best friend called Puerto Rico a floating Island of garbage. I think that is a direct enough comparison. The whole advent of false equivalence has now been taken so out of hand since someone latched on to it that no one seems to know what it is anymore. On this forum you'd have someone stealing a twix and stealing a snickers and claiming false equivalence if compared, because it was not the EXACT equivalent action. That is not what false equivalence means.

Biden 'probably' shouldn't have said it? That is extremely dangerous. Calling half of the electorate that you represent 'garbage' should NEVER be said, in any context, by a sitting president.  

[Zear0]

1 minute ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Biden called Trump supporters garbage. McDonald's man best friend called Puerto Rico a floating Island of garbage. I think that is a direct enough comparison. The whole advent of false equivalence has now been taken so out of hand since someone latched on to it that no one seems to know what it is anymore. On this forum you'd have someone stealing a twix and stealing a snickers and claiming false equivalence if compared, because it was not the EXACT equivalent action. That is not what false equivalence means.

Biden 'probably' shouldn't have said it? That is extremely dangerous. Calling half of the electorate that you represent 'garbage' should NEVER be said, in any context, by a sitting president.  

Hillary calling them all a "baskets of deplorables" didn't do her many favours.  Classic OG from Biden there.

[leicsmac]

37 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Biden called Trump supporters garbage. McDonald's man best friend called Puerto Rico a floating Island of garbage. I think that is a direct enough comparison. The whole advent of false equivalence has now been taken so out of hand since someone latched on to it that no one seems to know what it is anymore. On this forum you'd have someone stealing a twix and stealing a snickers and claiming false equivalence if compared, because it was not the EXACT equivalent action. That is not what false equivalence means.

Biden 'probably' shouldn't have said it? That is extremely dangerous. Calling half of the electorate that you represent 'garbage' should NEVER be said, in any context, by a sitting president.  

 

34 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

Hillary calling them all a "baskets of deplorables" didn't do her many favours.  Classic OG from Biden there.

Yeah, fair enough, a person in his position (or in her position, in Hillary's case (shouldn't have said it at all).

 

I stand by the difference in context though, and if folks can look past the playground insults (that Trump made mainstream in such politics) I wonder exactly what one might call someone who would vote for the man considering his policy stance on various matters, to say nothing of his attitude towards directly inciting an insurrection attempt following an electoral loss.

 

I'm not sure why he, or most of his followers, merit such a staunch defence.

[Dunge]

There are political differences between the two garbage comments though.

 

The Republican one:

- Came from a warm-up act

- Insulted people of a specific origin

- Is likely to have directly upset people who might have voted Republican

 

The Democrat one:

- Came from the president

- Insulted people of a political persuasion

- Is unlikely to have directly upset many people who might vote Democrat

 

Which of those factors is more important is debatable, but there are subtle yet definite differences.

[MPH]

2 hours ago, Torquay Gunner said:

Interesting what effect if any this may have, as of 2021 there were nearly six million Puerto Ricans entitled to vote.  That is a large demographic to wind up. 

 

im not convinced many of them would have voted for Trump anyway…