US Presidential Election 2024

[Gubbins]

From what I'm reading and have listened to over the past 24hrs there seems to have been a bit of momentum shift back towards Harris.The msg Puerto Rico comments have definely hurt Trump and the Democrats have done some smart campaigning on abortion and women with suggestions that abortion could be the driving factor in the recent iowa poll putting Harris ahead there by 4 points. Can also only surmise that trump already setting the groundwork for claiming another stolen election shows that he is not super confident of winning. As opposed to a week ago I'm now guardedly optimistic that Tuesday should be the end for the orange grifter.

[leicsmac]

3 hours ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

This is bang on and it doesn’t hold much weight considering she ousted the most popular United States president in history 

In terms of sheer numbers, certainly.

 

But I'm pretty sure in terms of percentage of population, there would be a number of other Presidents - Washington, Lincoln, FDR, even Reagan 1984 and Dubya post-9/11 - who might claim otherwise.

 

Also, as above, the fact that truth apparently has less worth now is something that should be worrying people.

[leicsmac]

8 hours ago, Lionator said:

Absolutely. Climate change being the worst example. 

And, lest we forget, that one policy area has the power to render practically all the others totally moot.

[leicsmac]

Final day, and it's still a coin flip.

[Trav Le Bleu]

7 hours ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

This is bang on and it doesn’t hold much weight considering she ousted the most popular United States president in history 

Trump?

 

(I've fact checked this by asking Donald, and it's absolutely true, very much so and massively.)

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Trump?

 

(I've fact checked this by asking Donald, and it's absolutely true, very much so and massively.)

Biden, I think the reference is to, according to numbers. That's not exactly 100% accurate though either, see above.

[ealingfox]

Why do Repubs keep bringing up Epstein when publicising the investigation into him would obviously reveal Trump was up to his neck in it?

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

Why do Repubs keep bringing up Epstein when publicising the investigation into him would obviously reveal Trump was up to his neck in it?

Two reasons.

 

Firstly, they can write off his involvement in it as "fake news" while emphasising the role of others and boosting their victim narrative.

 

Secondly, they really believe that the truth is what they say it is so it honestly doesn't matter what official sources say anyway. Trump winning tomorrow would only vindicate that more in their eyes. For them, popular opinion and belief (and not even that popular) outranks fact and should be used as a basis for worldview.

[ramboacdc]

I don't believe these polls at all. They are all hedging and herding. The Iowa poll is a gold standard pollster and says Harris is up with independent women and women over 60. They will vote in droves and I bet Roe Vs Wade is one of the reasons for that. 

The last 2 elections, none of them predicted the Trump support and it came down to the wire. Someone will win it and it won't be close. In a perfect world, Kamala flips red states where Trump hasn't so far claimed fraud. He is already starting to claim fraud in Pennsylvania, which makes me think he isn't seeing favourable polls. 

The one thing I would love to see happen is Texas go blue and Cruz lose his Senate seat. They will cry foul over fraud on that one forever and a day. Not impossible but highly improbable. Iowa, and Kansas may come back into play. If Harris wins Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin along with flipping Iowa and Kansas and Trump takes all the battlegrounds, we get 269-269 and then it's a right shitshow and probably a 26-25 to Trump if it follows party lines and the dems get the 2 independents on their side. 

Trump will win all the sun belt states and PA, or he will lose by a large amount and all pollsters just didn't dare stray just in case. He will win Georgia or it won't be declared for a while because of the election officials previous refusing to declare the results because it didn't go Republican.  The rest I think is all to play for. 

[Babylon]

15 minutes ago, ramboacdc said:

He is already starting to claim fraud in Pennsylvania, which makes me think he isn't seeing favourable polls. 

I can't wait for all of that election fraud nonsense to start over here.

[MPH]

I hate to say this to you all, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest  that there will be anything other than a comfortable win for Trump. From what I can work out the polls seem to be focusing on those that they can reach for polling- they are not able to reach the massive majority that Trump has in the rural areas.  It looks like this may be giving some false polling numbers just like they did in 2016 and 2020- 2020 was much closer than the polling suggested it should have been. With it being much closer now, especially in the crucial states, it really does look like Trump will do well in the swing states.

 

also, and this could be huge.. it looks like he may do a clean sweep of the senate and congress too.

 

 

Crucially he is polling much higher amongst the black population than he did in 2020.

 

 

 

i have never liked Trump and I probably never will. It’s all making me feel. Bit sick to be honest and I probably won’t be on here much if he wins because I won’t be able to keep away from this section and it will all make me quite upset and angry.

 

 

 

 

[bovril]

Still going for a narrow Harris win.

[leicsmac]

27 minutes ago, MPH said:

I hate to say this to you all, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest  that there will be anything other than a comfortable win for Trump. From what I can work out the polls seem to be focusing on those that they can reach for polling- they are not able to reach the massive majority that Trump has in the rural areas.  It looks like this may be giving some false polling numbers just like they did in 2016 and 2020- 2020 was much closer than the polling suggested it should have been. With it being much closer now, especially in the crucial states, it really does look like Trump will do well in the swing states.

 

also, and this could be huge.. it looks like he may do a clean sweep of the senate and congress too.

 

 

Crucially he is polling much higher amongst the black population than he did in 2020.

 

 

 

i have never liked Trump and I probably never will. It’s all making me feel. Bit sick to be honest and I probably won’t be on here much if he wins because I won’t be able to keep away from this section and it will all make me quite upset and angry.

 

 

 

 

Is there any reason to suggest the polling companies really haven't accounted for this in their figures, given this would have been the third time it would have happened?

[Torquay Gunner]

MPH  i have never liked Trump and I probably never will. It’s all making me feel. Bit sick to be honest and I probably won’t be on here much if he wins because I won’t be able to keep away from this section and it will all make me quite upset and angry

 

You and me both, however I am slightly more optimistic so will cling to that whilst I can.

[grobyfox1990]

44 minutes ago, MPH said:

I hate to say this to you all, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest  that there will be anything other than a comfortable win for Trump. From what I can work out the polls seem to be focusing on those that they can reach for polling- they are not able to reach the massive majority that Trump has in the rural areas.  It looks like this may be giving some false polling numbers just like they did in 2016 and 2020- 2020 was much closer than the polling suggested it should have been. With it being much closer now, especially in the crucial states, it really does look like Trump will do well in the swing states.

 

also, and this could be huge.. it looks like he may do a clean sweep of the senate and congress too.

 

 

Crucially he is polling much higher amongst the black population than he did in 2020.

 

 

 

i have never liked Trump and I probably never will. It’s all making me feel. Bit sick to be honest and I probably won’t be on here much if he wins because I won’t be able to keep away from this section and it will all make me quite upset and angry.

 

 

 

 

Which state do you live in? The odds in Iowa have slumped for him to win it, worth a few quid IMO 

[reporterpenguin]

4 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Which state do you live in? The odds in Iowa have slumped for him to win it, worth a few quid IMO 

On that subject, for anyone desperate to make a guaranteed whopping 1% return, the best odds from a couple of different bookies (via OddsChecker) allow that at the moment if you bet in the right ratio. 
 

Yes, I need to get out more. 

[Babylon]

52 minutes ago, MPH said:

I hate to say this to you all, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest  that there will be anything other than a comfortable win for Trump. From what I can work out the polls seem to be focusing on those that they can reach for polling- they are not able to reach the massive majority that Trump has in the rural areas.  It looks like this may be giving some false polling numbers just like they did in 2016 and 2020- 2020 was much closer than the polling suggested it should have been. With it being much closer now, especially in the crucial states, it really does look like Trump will do well in the swing states.

 

also, and this could be huge.. it looks like he may do a clean sweep of the senate and congress too.

 

 

Crucially he is polling much higher amongst the black population than he did in 2020.

 

 

 

i have never liked Trump and I probably never will. It’s all making me feel. Bit sick to be honest and I probably won’t be on here much if he wins because I won’t be able to keep away from this section and it will all make me quite upset and angry.

 

 

 

 

The 2022 midterms were the most accurate polls since 1998, there have been quite a few changes to how they are done. 

[Jattdogg]

4 hours ago, Babylon said:

I can't wait for all of that election fraud nonsense to start over here.

The dems cheated bigly.

 

-They were trucking in migrants to vote

-They were wearing 3d printed masks to steal voter identities and vote

-They used AI to change the results 

-They were changing mail in or in-person votes via some sort of invisible process, perhaps using whiteout via their mind to make it disappear for him and show up instead for the worst vp ever.

-They chanted some kingflu language saying "i command the ballots to all show for kamalalallaa instead of the greatest president ME EVER who by the way I happen to know personally".

 

 

Keep adding...

 

 

Side note: fully accepting he will win. Hope to be proven wrong though.

 

Edited 4 November 2024 by Jattdogg

[MPH]

3 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Is there any reason to suggest the polling companies really haven't accounted for this in their figures, given this would have been the third time it would have happened?

Accessibility.

 

also, 36 states are now requiring Voter ID to vote since the last election. This is a big increase since 2020  and this will apparently effect the Dems  vote at the ballot more than the republicans..

Edited 4 November 2024 by MPH

[MPH]

2 hours ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Which state do you live in? The odds in Iowa have slumped for him to win it, worth a few quid IMO 

 

im in North Carolina.

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, MPH said:

Accessibility.

 

also, 36 states are now requiring Voter ID to vote since the last election. This is a big increase since 2020  and this will apparently effect the Dems  vote at the ballot more than the republicans..

No, I mean why wouldn't the polling companies have included these factors in their modelling. I've no doubt it's more difficult to reach such voters to poll them, but given this is the third spin of the wheel you would have thought they would have added this factor to the algorithm this time round.

 

Little bit disappointed to hear the Voter ID news - at best it's using a bazooka to shoot a fly (the American way, I guess), at worst it's reasonably blatant voter suppression by the Repubs.

[MPH]

11 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

No, I mean why wouldn't the polling companies have included these factors in their modelling. I've no doubt it's more difficult to reach such voters to poll them, but given this is the third spin of the wheel you would have thought they would have added this factor to the algorithm this time round.

 

Little bit disappointed to hear the Voter ID news - at best it's using a bazooka to shoot a fly (the American way, I guess), at worst it's reasonably blatant voter suppression by the Repubs.

 

well, this is the problem, I suppose. You can only assess the voting intentions of those you get to reach.  
 

 

[leicsmac]

Just now, MPH said:

 

well, this is the problem, I suppose. You can only assess the voting intentions of those you get to reach.  
 

 

I would think and hope that such a drastic effect as the one being discussed above (which it undoubtedly is) would at least be able to be simulated indirectly and therefore included, though.

[Zear0]

26 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

im in North Carolina.

[MPH]

6 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I would think and hope that such a drastic effect as the one being discussed above (which it undoubtedly is) would at least be able to be simulated indirectly and therefore included, though.

 

You’d  think  so wouldn’t you..