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crafty fox

mathematical

By crafty fox, in Leicester City Forum

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Ultra

Ultra

Posted
Posted

I suspect promotion will be secured after the Millwall-Peterboro game, rather than by anything we might do.

mitchofox

mitchofox

Posted
Posted
Totally agree assume we can manage 9 points out of remaining games (if we dont we dont deserve to go up!) That gives us 91 points only 3 teams can catch us but can only afford to do the following

Peterboro - Can only drop 5 points - 1 loss and 1 draw

Millwall - Can only drop 3 points - 1 loss

MK - Can only drop 2 points - 2 draws

2 out of these 3 teams need to go on really good runs in order to catch us. Its not going to happen especially as Peterboro and Milwall have to play each other a draw between these 2 would be the best result.

Also remember Peterboro and Millwall are no where near us on goal difference so really 1 extra point to us. I think whoever finishes 3rd will have no more than 87 points.

Only once in the history of 3 points for a win has 90 points been needed to secure promotion from this division.

Keep the faith its not a question of if but when!

:sweating: good news cause millwall are losing 0-1 colchester :chant:
Bert

Bert

Posted
Posted

We can now gain promotion against Leeds.

IF - we win our next two games and avoid defeat against Leeds, and Millwall fail to be P'boro.

IF - we win our next two games and beat Leeds.

Matt

Matt

Posted
Posted
We can now gain promotion against Leeds.

IF - we win our next two games and avoid defeat against Leeds, and Millwall fail to be P'boro.

IF - we win our next two games and beat Leeds.

I like the sound of this one, And at the same time we will allow Millwall to beat Peterborough, Cutting their chances of winning the league! :thumbup:

And hopefully (Depending on Leeds' results prior to our game) fook Leeds' chances of the playoffs aswell!

maddog

maddog

Posted
Posted
We can now gain promotion against Leeds.

IF - we win our next two games and avoid defeat against Leeds, and Millwall fail to be P'boro.

IF - we win our next two games and beat Leeds.

The Dons could still catch up then if they win their last 7 games, we draw to Leeds and lose our final 3.

Not like thats going to happen though :D

Legend_in_blue

Legend_in_blue

Posted
Posted
We can now gain promotion against Leeds.

IF - we win our next two games and avoid defeat against Leeds, and Millwall fail to be P'boro.

IF - we win our next two games and beat Leeds.

That's right.

You've said it right there.

3 wins. :thumbup:

maddog

maddog

Posted
Posted

The earliest we could now be guranteed promotion is the Hereford game.

Odds are its looking like the Leeds game.

Or if we slip it will almost certainly be the Southend game.

leftsideoverhere

leftsideoverhere

Posted
Posted
That's right.

You've said it right there.

3 wins. :thumbup:

Not quite. You're relying on the goal difference - which is heavily in our favour at the moment, but might not be if we lost our last three, and Millwall won all of theirs. Since this thread is called 'mathematical', I feel the need to get all pedantic, and point out that we need 10 points to be sure, not 9, unless Millwall drop points in the meantime.

unreachable

unreachable

Posted
Posted
Not quite. You're relying on the goal difference - which is heavily in our favour at the moment, but might not be if we lost our last three, and Millwall won all of theirs. Since this thread is called 'mathematical', I feel the need to get all pedantic, and point out that we need 10 points to be sure, not 9, unless Millwall drop points in the meantime.

Agreed. I'm all in support of pedancy. You're dead right. This thread is called "mathematical". Can't really celebrate until it's mathematical! Having said that it would take some extraordinary results to miss out on goal difference.

leftsideoverhere

leftsideoverhere

Posted
Posted
Agreed. I'm all in support of pedancy. You're dead right. This thread is called "mathematical". Can't really celebrate until it's mathematical! Having said that it would take some extraordinary results to miss out on goal difference.

Yeah, I know. But I just don't feel comfortable setting a target for 'definite' promotion which wouldn't, quite, make it definite.

Anyway, if we do our bit and win the next three, I think it's unlikely Millwall will do the same so that third victory (against Leeds) would do the trick.

unreachable

unreachable

Posted
Posted
Yeah, I know. But I just don't feel comfortable setting a target for 'definite' promotion which wouldn't, quite, make it definite.

Anyway, if we do our bit and win the next three, I think it's unlikely Millwall will do the same so that third victory (against Leeds) would do the trick.

Just getting carried away with the scenario after the Leeds match if results go our away and only goal difference is the sole factor. I don't think the team would come out or the pitch get invaded unless it was mathematically certain.

Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
IF - we win our next two games and beat Leeds.

Small would really like this, although it doesn't know that this is a possibility yet.

I don't know how it would cope with its auntie crying though...... :unsure:

Sods

Sods

Posted
Posted
The earliest we could now be guranteed promotion is the Hereford game.

Odds are its looking like the Leeds game.

Or if we slip it will almost certainly be the Southend game.

****ski.

We will get promotion at the hereford game, cause Im not going to it.

maddog

maddog

Posted
Posted
****ski.

We will get promotion at the hereford game, cause Im not going to it.

To be guaranteed 'officially' though not taking into account goal difference we will have to beat Carlisle and Hereford.

Millwall would have to drop 4 points in their next 2 games. (Although in theory 3 due to goal difference but again that won't be official promotion)

Mk Dons would have to drop 3 points in their next 3 games. (Although in theory 2 due to goal difference but again that won't be official promotion, and Mk Dons's GD is much closer to ours than Millwalls)

Leeds would have to drop 2 points in their next 3 games. (Again the goal difference theory could make it 1 :P)

And even Scunny would have to drop 1 point in their next 3 games (Again :P:D:P)

So in summary for official promotion in the Hereford game this MUST happen:

We MUST beat Hereford and Carlisle.

Millwall MUST drop 4 points in their next 2 games Walsall (h), Yeovil (a)

Mk Dons MUST drop 3 points in their next 3 games. Brighton (h), Southend (a), Bristol Rovers (h)

Leeds MUST drop 2 points in their next 3 games. Colchester (a), Orient (a), Stockport (h)

Scunny MUST drop 1 point in their next 3 games Huddersfield (h), Hartlepool (a), Scunny (h)

So very small chance of all that happening and therefore small chance of promotion in that game (IF you want official promotion), but there is much more chance of the (NON official goal difference promotion)

So it looks like it will be the Leeds game. And i have WAY too much time to do this :D

:yahoo:

Raj

Raj

Posted
Posted

Too much bollox in this thread.

Too many ifs and shit.

But if we win all remaining games we'll win the League!

SIMPLE!!! :santa:

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