reynard Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 I await the "don't talk crap" "what an over reaction "replies to come but before you do I just want to say this is not some knee jerk reaction but is based on solid statistics for the last 12 seasons (I couldn't go back any further). We are currently in the bottom three with two more games to go in September which we really need to win and certainly need to be out of the bottm three and preferably the bottom five. Why do I say this? Well in the lst 12 seasons of the 36 teams who have finished in the bottom three at the end of september this is statistically what has happened to them by the end of the season. 14 were relegated. 16 finished between 15 and 21st. 4 finished between 10th and 14. only two sides Sheffield Wed in 06/07 who finished 9th and Wolves back in 99/00 who finished 7th have made it from the bottom 3 at the end of September to finish in the top 10. Most suffer a hard fight against relegation. The situation of those in the bottom 5 at the end of September is even grimmer in terms of relegation. Of the 36 sides relegated in the last 12 seasons 22 (just under two thirds) have been in the bottom five at the end of September. Overall, though there are a very few exceptions, there is actually not as much difference as one might expect between clubs' positions after say 12-15 games and the end of the season. If we don't get out of the bottom five in the next two games we stand a nearly 2 in 3 chance of going down!
reynard Posted 19 September 2010 Author Posted 19 September 2010 you asked for that I know but good to see there are some jokers around!
Corky Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 It won't be over, it will just be harder to do well because we'll be further behind.
Zingari Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 we could well have a relegation dog fight to look forward to
Asha Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 I do agree with you to some extent. Stating the obvious, but the longer we stay down the bottom, the harder it will be to mount any form of play-off challenge. Then again there are some people on here who, if we were bottom at Christmas, would still expect us to (and believe we can) win the league.
Trav Le Bleu Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 It's a fair enough statement - though Corky is much closer to the truth. I would say that any expectation of a playoff place would be over, which your stats support.
bigneville Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 I await the "don't talk crap" "what an over reaction "replies to come but before you do I just want to say this is not some knee jerk reaction but is based on solid statistics for the last 12 seasons (I couldn't go back any further). We are currently in the bottom three with two more games to go in September which we really need to win and certainly need to be out of the bottm three and preferably the bottom five. Why do I say this? Well in the lst 12 seasons of the 36 teams who have finished in the bottom three at the end of september this is statistically what has happened to them by the end of the season. 14 were relegated. 16 finished between 15 and 21st. 4 finished between 10th and 14. only two sides Sheffield Wed in 06/07 who finished 9th and Wolves back in 99/00 who finished 7th have made it from the bottom 3 at the end of September to finish in the top 10. Most suffer a hard fight against relegation. The situation of those in the bottom 5 at the end of September is even grimmer in terms of relegation. Of the 36 sides relegated in the last 12 seasons 22 (just under two thirds) have been in the bottom five at the end of September. Overall, though there are a very few exceptions, there is actually not as much difference as one might expect between clubs' positions after say 12-15 games and the end of the season. If we don't get out of the bottom five in the next two games we stand a nearly 2 in 3 chance of going down! Reynard. Are your statistics based over the same amount of games each season? If not, between what numbers are the figures, and what's the average?
Salieri Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 Okay, now for a bit of optimism... Our start this season is very similar to the start made by Paolo at Swansea last season (LLDWDLD=6 points from first 7 games) The following 10 games produced a totally different set of results (DWDWDWDWWW=22 points) I'm hoping that it is just a case of him needing time to get the team playing the way he wants to, and once it clicks, the results improve dramatically. I know i'm clutching at straws but amid all the negativity, there has to some hope.
broughtonblue Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 Sousa said give him two tears, I feel we over achieved last year, spurred on by the momentum of being labelled champions of what in effect is the '3rd' division. Mid table this year then promotion push next year would be acceptable for us in the present state
Zingari Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 Sousa said give him two tears, I feel we over achieved last year, spurred on by the momentum of being labelled champions of what in effect is the '3rd' division. Mid table this year then promotion push next year would be acceptable for us in the present state crying doesn't solve anything
broughtonblue Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 crying doesn't solve anything Ha ha! Fair play to you. F__king iPod. Letters too close to each other, especially after a couple of bottles of wine.
Jackirius Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 Aslong as we beat and finish higher than Norwich this season then i will be happy, this season is about Sousa getting his team playing right and maybe moulding them together whilst bringing in a few new faces.
z-layrex Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 Aslong as we beat and finish higher than Norwich this season then i will be happy, this season is about Sousa getting his team playing right and maybe moulding them together whilst bringing in a few new faces. This is football they'll get rid of him because we didnt win the fooking league. Absolutely no stability at this club.
Jackirius Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 This is football they'll get rid of him because we didnt win the fooking league. Absolutely no stability at this club. Yep And its a shame because he is a good manager and in the long term once he has us playing as he wants then we will become an efficient nice to watch team, whether the board will give him that time...
Bert Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 Yeaaahh. Just look at Sunderland a few seasons back. Bottom halfway through the season, went up champions.
Guest Bilo Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 It isn't where you are in September that counts, it's where you are in May. I'd say the same if we were top right now and acting like some of the QPR goons have been. There are 40 games to turn it around.
Ozwin Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 There really are some silly bastards on here at times.
m00nie Posted 19 September 2010 Posted 19 September 2010 Sousa said give him two tears, I feel we over achieved last year, spurred on by the momentum of being labelled champions of what in effect is the '3rd' division. Mid table this year then promotion push next year would be acceptable for us in the present state agree with this totally.. think we could do with a couple of wins atm just to shut the doom n gloom people up for a bit, but then if we get too many points people will be shouting promotion so its a bit of a no win situation on that... with some more time getting settled in the playing style, couple more players, and we weill be ready to romp this league....
accessory Posted 20 September 2010 Posted 20 September 2010 Yep And its a shame because he is a good manager and in the long term once he has us playing as he wants then we will become an efficient nice to watch team, whether the board will give him that time... The jury is still very much out on that..
reynard Posted 20 September 2010 Author Posted 20 September 2010 Reynard. Are your statistics based over the same amount of games each season? If not, between what numbers are the figures, and what's the average? The number of games played does differ slightly though the range is usually between 9 and 11 with the average actually being between 9 and 10 which you obviously can't have. The overall point I was trying to make is that it is statistically largely correct that sides that find themselves in the bottom three by the end of September struggle to make much of an upward movement. In fact I have been very surprised by how little movement there is on the whole over the course of the season. There are obviously examples that go against the trend but once a trend of results takes shape I have been very surprised how infrequently this trend is broken.
reynard Posted 20 September 2010 Author Posted 20 September 2010 Yeaaahh. Just look at Sunderland a few seasons back. Bottom halfway through the season, went up champions. I'm assuming you mean the 04/05 season. If so here are their end of months positions. August 17 September 8th October 3rd November 3rd December 2nd January 3rd hardly bottom halfway . In fact that year all the relegated sides were in the bottom 5 places come the end of September.
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