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Philly Fox

USA Foxes

By Philly Fox, in Supporters Groups

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The_77

The_77

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Posted

I had a good chat with Ian Ladyman for that article. Also recently spoke with Reuters, ESPN, and Newsday, so we'll see if anything else comes out

 

My prother Jordan ("Jordan" on FT) was just on BBC Radio 5 Live's "Up All Night"

Starts at 51:00 - I gotta say this is a pretty fun listen.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b075swms

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The_77

The_77

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http://www.fourfourtwo.com/us/features/leicester-city-cinderella-robin-hood-america-best-sports-story\

 

There's Cinderella, there's Robin Hood, and then there's what Leicester City is doing
Americans love an underdog story, but it typically ends short of a championship. That's why this Leicester City team could be the best story in sports history, Paul Tenorio writes.

Edited by The_77
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americanfox

americanfox

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http://www.fourfourtwo.com/us/features/leicester-city-cinderella-robin-hood-america-best-sports-story\

 

There's Cinderella, there's Robin Hood, and then there's what Leicester City is doing

Americans love an underdog story, but it typically ends short of a championship. That's why this Leicester City team could be the best story in sports history, Paul Tenorio writes.

Hope your head isn't growing too big haha

Edited by americanfox
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FireFox

FireFox

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Why am I waking up at 6:30 when I know what the team will be?

Also, wtf is up with that Spurs v United preview? "For their first league title in over 50 years, Tottenham will first have to take on Manchester United" or something like that. Umm, they'd have to do a lot more than that. At best they are 4 points behind today.

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WiFoxes

WiFoxes

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ESPN FC makes their photos impossible to embed. I'll try those again later, but here is a wall of text for now:

 

With five full weeks remaining in the Premier League season, the major races have all nearly been reduced to two-team duels that can swing wildly with a single outcome.

The schedule is more important than ever, and one unexpected result can shift probability drastically, either positively or negatively.

Which teams have the edge in the final month of the season? And how will this weekend's matches affect key races?

With the help of our Soccer Power Index, here's an end-of-season projection of the full table along with breakdowns of the title, top-four and relegation battles. (For more info on SPI, click here.)

Table projection

 

Leicester City's title to lose

 

While SPI still gives Arsenal a 1 percent chance to win the title, the chase for the trophy is essentially down to Tottenham, which hasn't won a top-flight title since 1961, and Leicester City, which has never won a first-division championship.

The Foxes hold a seven-point lead on Spurs with five games remaining, which means that Leicester's magic number is nine points. Any combination of Leicester's points won and Tottenham's points dropped that adds up to nine will give Leicester the title.

SPI currently projects Leicester City as a 93 percent favorite to win the Premier League, with Tottenham at 6 percent.

Looking solely at Leicester's games, SPI gives the Foxes a 40 percent chance to get the necessary nine points, with an average of 7.75 points coming from their final five games.

That may seem ominous for Leicester, but Tottenham is projected for 8.61 points, and that difference of less than a point obviously doesn't help Spurs much.

And check out how quickly the situation gets dire for Spurs. If Tottenham draws just once, then Leicester needs only seven points to clinch the title, and SPI gives Leicester a 68 percent chance to get at least seven points the rest of the way.

Leicester does face top-10 opponents in three of its final five games, including matches at Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge, though who knows what sort of lineups or motivation Manchester United and Chelsea will have at that point.

Leicester hosts sixth-place West Ham on Saturday, with bottom-half Swansea City and Everton also on the King Power Stadium docket. The Foxes are more than 50 percent favorites to win each of those games.

If Leicester beats West Ham, its title projection is guaranteed to be at least 96 percent, and it could jump more than 99 percent if Tottenham loses at Stoke City on Monday.

The best-case scenario for Tottenham this weekend (a win and a Leicester loss) would bump Spurs' projection to 21 percent, dropping Leicester City to 78 percent, which is where the Foxes were two weeks ago prior to their two most recent wins.

Looking at underlying stats, Leicester City's offense doesn't seem ripe for a slowdown. The Foxes' 60 expected goals are second best in the league behind Arsenal, and Leicester have actually scored three goals below that total this season.

Defensively, though, Leicester City has been exceptional and/or fortunate to concede 31 goals, third fewest in the league. By expected goals, Leicester was projected to allow 43.8 goals this season, and that difference of minus-12.8 is the largest in the league.

Regardless, Leicester is riding a five-game shutout streak for the first time in England's first division.

Tottenham also seems fortunate defensively, conceding a league-low 25 goals, compared to an expected-goals total of 34.8. That's the fourth-biggest gap in the league this season.

Spurs have also benefitted from good finishing, scoring 3.5 goals over their expected total of 56.5, good for the third-largest difference in the league.

Manchester clubs dueling for top four

 

Leicester City has officially clinched a top-four spot, with Tottenham (99 percent) and Arsenal (97 percent) all but sewing up two others, leaving one likely berth still in play.

After one win in a five-game stretch, Manchester City's top-four odds were as low as 59 percent. However, two consecutive wins have put City at a more secure 76 percent, with Manchester United the primary challenger at 21 percent.

Facing virtually-relegated Aston Villa at Old Trafford on Saturday, anything but a win for Man United will probably be disastrous for its Champions League hopes; United is projected to get an average of 2.43 points from Villa.

Because of that, a win doesn't help United as much as City dropping points. The best-case scenario for United (a win and a City loss) changes United's projection to 32 percent and drops City to 63 percent.

A win would boost City to at least 87 percent even if United wins, and 95 percent if United loses, reducing United's odds to 3 percent.

Man City does have a more difficult schedule down the stretch, with four of its final six games away from home, plus a game versus Arsenal at Etihad Stadium. United's only remaining games against teams in the top half are home to Leicester City and at West Ham in the season's penultimate weekend.

Norwich-Sunderland looms large in relegation battle

 

As for the relegation race, Aston Villa is doomed. To avoid ending its 28-season run in the top flight, Villa would have to win out, have Norwich City lose out and make up 19 in goal difference on the Canaries. Not even Lloyd Christmas gives that a chance.

Newcastle isn't much better off, projected to be relegated 94 percent of the time by SPI.

That leaves Sunderland (currently 77 percent) and Norwich City (29 percent) as the likely teams fighting to avoid the final relegation spot. They happen to meet Saturday at Carrow Road, where SPI gives Norwich a 42 percent chance to win, with a 29 percent chance of both a draw and a Sunderland win.

The math works out to averages of 1.55 points for Norwich and 1.16 points for Sunderland, so a draw would leave the projections virtually unchanged.

A home win for Norwich would nearly guarantee safety, giving the Canaries a seven-point cushion with four matches remaining and a game in hand for Sunderland. Norwich's SPI relegation projection would be down to 9 percent, with Sunderland's shooting to 95 percent.

Should the Black Cats pull the upset, they would suddenly be a slight favorite to survive at 50 percent, compared to Norwich's projection of 58 percent.

If Norwich City stays up, this would be the third time in 24 Premier League seasons that all three newly promoted teams avoided relegation, along with 2011-12 (Norwich City, QPR, Swansea City) and 2001-02 (Blackburn, Bolton, Fulham).

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Detroit Blues

Detroit Blues

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Good article WiFoxes, the thought that we need only 7 points should spurs even draw a single game is very re-assuring. Even winning 3 games out of five seems likely given our recent form.

Just don't go around throwing out that magic number around here. From past experience that concept draws the ire of our overseas compatriots lol

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NewEnglandFox

NewEnglandFox

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Good article WiFoxes, the thought that we need only 7 points should spurs even draw a single game is very re-assuring. Even winning 3 games out of five seems likely given our recent form.

Just don't go around throwing out that magic number around here. From past experience that concept draws the ire of our overseas compatriots lol

 

It's weird to think about. We don't actually need 3 wins, we need our points gained + their points dropped to be 9 points. Of course we can't count on them to drop points but a Spurs loss is figuratively another 3 point win for us.

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Detroit Blues

Detroit Blues

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It's weird to think about. We don't actually need 3 wins, we need our points gained + their points dropped to be 9 points. Of course we can't count on them to drop points but a Spurs loss is figuratively another 3 point win for us.

Which is why it's so useful. If stoke can do us a favor, we could be 3 points away after the weekend! That would all but seal it.

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WiFoxes

WiFoxes

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Just don't go around throwing out that magic number around here. From past experience that concept draws the ire of our overseas compatriots lol

 

I've had the magic number in my head for the past several weeks. But I don't dare mention it in these parts  :ph34r:

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WiFoxes

WiFoxes

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It looks like the NBCSN crew have been around Leicester this week to film a feature on the club and the city. They sent Arlo White and a few cameras to see the Riders and LCCC.

 

I saw on Arlo's twitter he was at the Tigers, too. Should be a nice piece with him involved.

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