Another tory defects to UKIP

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

Nice to find an honest politician. Welcome to UKIP. 

[Guest MattP]

Ken won't be happy.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2773553/Now-White-Dee-threatens-defect-UKIP-Benefits-Street-star-tells-Tory-conference-IDS-touch-real-world.html

 

 

Benefits Street star Deirdre Kelly today revealed she could switch to supporting UKIP in the wake of two shock defections by Tory MPs.

 

Also more proof that some people literally cannot have any idea what they are voting for.

[Fox92]

Also more proof that some people literally cannot have any idea what they are voting for.

 

This is what I mean. Sometimes it's better off not voting at all.

[Buce]

Nice to find an honest politician. Welcome to UKIP.

Surely that's an oxymoron?

[purpleronnie]

Well it seems to cause the tories to lurch further towards the right, remember Cameron splurting out compassionate conservatism   but yet more attacks on the disabled, sick and ill during the Tory conference. It may gain you the odd voter David but it'll lose you more. It's all good though as labour move closer towards victory.

[Webbo]

Well it seems to cause the tories to lurch further towards the right, remember Cameron splurting out compassionate conservatism   but yet more attacks on the disabled, sick and ill during the Tory conference. It may gain you the odd voter David but it'll lose you more. It's all good though as labour move closer towards victory.

Source?

[Guest MattP]

I watched the conference and missed those attacks?

You got your savings out yet? I know you've got a few quid so use it or lose it if that last sentence is true

[Voll Blau]

This is what I mean. Sometimes it's better off not voting at all.

 

Or reading up enough to make an informed decision? But which is easier...

[Fox92]

Or reading up enough to make an informed decision? But which is easier...

 

Yeah, whichever. I always see "you should vote" and people get criticised for not voting but surely if you don't know that much about politics/policies then it's better to not vote at all?

[Rincewind]

Vote MRLP who have elements of all the other parties.

[Strokes]

Depends what you mean by "third biggest party". If you mean third highest percentage of the national vote, you could well be right.

However, if you mean third highest number of MPs, I'll gladly put a tenner on with you that that won't happen, due to the "first past the post" election system.

In terms of number of seats, I reckon that UKIP will definitely be behind the Tories, Labour & Lib Dems, will probably be behind the SNP and DUP, and will possibly even be behind Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru.

They'll need a much bigger breakthrough to be a significant player after this election. They could achieve a serious breakthrough in 2020, if they hold it together, if living standards remain low, if there's no EU referendum etc. But that's a lot of "ifs".

All the other parties, even the Lib Dems, have regions of the country in which they're pretty much guaranteed 40%+ of the vote across a number of seats, even on a bad showing. That equates to seats in parliament. Whereas there are almost no seats in which UKIP is currently likely to get 40%+ at the general election. It has yet to even reach 30% in a byelection, though it will surely beat that at the Clacton byelection, with a sitting MP having defected from the Tories.

As things stand, there will be a handful of seats that UKIP could win at the general election with a vote of about 30%, provided that the rest of the vote is split fairly evenly between Tories and Labour, plus maybe 2 or 3 that it could win due to the candidate (e.g. Farage, Carswell) or to local factors (e.g. Rotherham). As things stand, I'd be surprised if UKIP won more than about 6 seats at the general election - an initial breakthrough but nowhere near enough to have much influence, in the short term, even in a hung parliament. If the Tories were again the largest party in a hung parliament, Cameron would surely opt for another coalition with Clegg, or with the Ulster Unionists, rather than get into bed with Farage.... In theory, I suppose the Tory right could stage a coup to replace Cameron with Boris, who might be more partial to a deal with UKIP, but there would be popular outrage at that.

The byelections will be interesting:

- Clacton: "safe" Tory seat, which the Tories seem to be expecting to lose to Carswell (UKIP)

- Heywood & Middleton: "safe" Labour seat, in which UKIP has a chance, but doesn't seem confident

- Rochester: Tory seat that went Labour under Blair, so could easily be a 3-way marginal (Con/Lab/UKIP)

Wouldn't it be amusing if UKIP took Clacton off the Tories, failed to take Heywood off Labour and then Labour came through the middle to win Rochester at the expense of both the Tories and the defecting UKIP MP Reckless?

Sorry Alf, I had seen your post but not had a chance to reply. You're right, they won't be third biggest by portion of seats but I am hopeful they will have four or five. I do think they will get represented well by the electorate, if they keep momentum maybe 11-12% or is that too optimistic?

I don't just give my money away you know im not Ronnie.

[Guest Kopfkino]

Well it seems to cause the tories to lurch further towards the right, remember Cameron splurting out compassionate conservatism   but yet more attacks on the disabled, sick and ill during the Tory conference. It may gain you the odd voter David but it'll lose you more. It's all good though as labour move closer towards victory.

And of course speeches that fail to mention the deficit inspire confidence and win votes galore.

[Rincewind]

Chris Ship @chrisshipitv  ·  41m 41 minutes ago

Man with UKIP poster at entrance to #cpc14 tells delegates "I must apologise, I don't have any membership forms left" <They're not amused

[Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo]

I watched the conference and missed those attacks?

You got your savings out yet? I know you've got a few quid so use it or lose it if that last sentence is true

I heard he hit a defenseless downs syndrome child and punched his elderly wheelchair-bound mum in the face

(Little Extras reference for anyone thinking I've lost the plot)

[Rincewind]

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/richard-barnes-ditches-tories-for-ukip-mayors-former-righthand-man-defects-9763938.html

[purpleronnie]

Freezing working tax credits, another great decision from ozzy, they certainly are on the side of working people.

 

Nice tax break for the richest 1% though, so not all bad.

[Guest MattP]

Freezing working tax credits, another great decision from ozzy, they certainly are on the side of working people.

 

Nice tax break for the richest 1% though, so not all bad.

 

Missed the tax break for the rich. Have you got a link ?

 

It's hard to understand what Osborne is doing, I know he wants to present a sensible fiscal argument and be honest with the public over the state of the nation's finances but that simply doesn't win you votes in election years. He should be up there making false promises and lying his backside off, if they do get re-elected then they'll be out anyway in 2020 as the public will be long bored of a Cameron after ten years.

 

He's clearly doing to go down as an exceptional chancellor giving the economic recovery he has overseen but it's going to be a far shorter stint than he thinks if he isn't prepared to bribe people for votes, that's just the way it is nowadays. Brown made it acceptable for a generation to be dependant on state support and now a lot of the electorate have a firm belief they are entitled to it, you've got familes on 50k+ incomes receiving tax credits It's an absurd situation we've got into.

 

Labour's lead is increasing and it's on the back of all these ridiculous promises from Ed that even the most hardened Labour follower knows he won't be able to back up, unworkable mansion taxes, a bankers bonus tax that has already been spent ten times over. Apart from those couple of soundbites he didnt even mention the economy in his speech If that doesn't show people what is in the mind of the party then nothing will.

 

I think George is seriously overestimating the political intellect of the electorate. Ed is securing the idiot vote that could lead him to number 10, he needs to find a way to cut into it.

[purpleronnie]

Matt what's your opinion on the pre-paid benefit cards?  They can't be used for alcohol, drugs or gambling....seems like a typical tory generalisation that the poor have all this free money to waste on such things.  As if people who claim benefits thesedays aren't demonised enough imagine what it would be like having to show this card so everyone can see.

[Guest MattP]

Matt what's your opinion on the pre-paid benefit cards?  They can't be used for alcohol, drugs or gambling....seems like a typical tory generalisation that the poor have all this free money to waste on such things.  As if people who claim benefits thesedays aren't demonised enough imagine what it would be like having to show this card so everyone can see.

 

Great idea. The state shouldn't be providing things for people that aren't essential. If you can whack up a good argument why benefits could be used for fags booze or gambling I'm all ears. Just be honest if you want though, you're happy to throw money at people to use it for this as it equals out the vote between them and a tax paying Tory.

 

Not even going to justify the last point by answering, only in Britain could giving people free money to spend how they like that they haven't earnt be classed as 'demonising them'. Surprised at you coming out with that considering the travelling you have done, see some real poverty and you'll see what a demonised people are, maybe the embarrassment would be another incentive to actually find work.

 

Sounds like you've been on it all day with Ken.

[Rincewind]

Someone was saying on Facebook that they shop for fresh stuff on the local market. Cheaper and healthier so will market traders take the cards or will it be one or two 'approved' government outlets? Will they be acceptable on buses for people that do not have an Asda on their doorstep? Will Black Market dealers accept them in exchange for fags and alcohol? Will those needing special diets  have a special card? How much will all this cost the tax payer many who are in low paid jobs and claiming benefits in order that they have a living income?

[Guest MattP]

Someone was saying on Facebook that they shop for fresh stuff on the local market. Cheaper and healthier so will market traders take the cards or will it be one or two 'approved' government outlets? Will they be acceptable on buses for people that do not have an Asda on their doorstep? Will Black Market accept them in exchange for fags and alcohol? Will those needing special diets  have a special card? How much will all this cost the tax payer many who are in low paid jobs and claiming benefits in order that they have a living income?

 

Stop worrying about it it's never going to happen anyway.

 

The Special Brew will still be flying out of the offy's in town on weekdays for a many years to come yet.

[Rincewind]

It seems they are doing everything they can to lose the election. What are they trying to hide? Either that or someone has been slipping happy pills in their sherry at the HoC bar.

[Guest MattP]

It seems they are doing everything they can to lose the election. What are they trying to hide? Either that or someone has been slipping happy pills in their sherry at the HoC bar.

 

I think he is trying to be honest regarding the state of the nation's finances and openly telling people times are still going to be tough.

 

What he really should be doing is moaning about bankers, threatening to punish the successful and promising wages and benefits to people he knows he can't realistically achieve, the truth doesn't win you votes.

[ADK]

In truth there's not really anything more wrong about spending money on booze, fags and gambling than any other form of entertainment. No way it will happen anyway, it's unworkable.

[PAPA LAZAROU]

Plenty of BNP councillors have defected to Labour in the North.

 

 

What on earth were they thinking of ? first they had no chance of election as a B.N.P candidate now they have no fvcking chance of election as a Labour one. It's a strange world and no mistake.