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Buce

Another tory defects to UKIP

By Buce, in General Chat

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Rincewind

Rincewind

Posted
Posted

Crafty move. Shift a few of them to UKIP to catch the disgruntled Tory and Labour voters then if its another close thing they can kick the Lib Dems out and form a coalition with UKIP. No chance of them disagreeing with any policies. A new party UKIPCON.

purpleronnie

purpleronnie

Posted
Posted

Should put this in the good news thread. Ukip will be the the third biggest party after the GE I think.

Could well be strokes, but I certainly wouldn't put it in the good news thread. ;)

Sir Fynwy

Sir Fynwy

Posted
Posted

At least Grant Shapps has learnt something this week, the dimwit didn't even know the definition of defection before he looked it up

Buce

Buce

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Mental health issue if I remember correctly.

That goes without saying - he was a Tory, after all... :D

I don't recall anything beyond that.

Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

Posted
Posted

Should put this in the good news thread. Ukip will be the the third biggest party after the GE I think.

 

Depends what you mean by "third biggest party". If you mean third highest percentage of the national vote, you could well be right.

 

However, if you mean third highest number of MPs, I'll gladly put a tenner on with you that that won't happen, due to the "first past the post" election system.

 

In terms of number of seats, I reckon that UKIP will definitely be behind the Tories, Labour & Lib Dems, will probably be behind the SNP and DUP, and will possibly even be behind Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru.

They'll need a much bigger breakthrough to be a significant player after this election. They could achieve a serious breakthrough in 2020, if they hold it together, if living standards remain low, if there's no EU referendum etc. But that's a lot of "ifs".

 

All the other parties, even the Lib Dems, have regions of the country in which they're pretty much guaranteed 40%+ of the vote across a number of seats, even on a bad showing. That equates to seats in parliament. Whereas there are almost no seats in which UKIP is currently likely to get 40%+ at the general election. It has yet to even reach 30% in a byelection, though it will surely beat that at the Clacton byelection, with a sitting MP having defected from the Tories.

 

As things stand, there will be a handful of seats that UKIP could win at the general election with a vote of about 30%, provided that the rest of the vote is split fairly evenly between Tories and Labour, plus maybe 2 or 3 that it could win due to the candidate (e.g. Farage, Carswell) or to local factors (e.g. Rotherham). As things stand, I'd be surprised if UKIP won more than about 6 seats at the general election - an initial breakthrough but nowhere near enough to have much influence, in the short term, even in a hung parliament. If the Tories were again the largest party in a hung parliament, Cameron would surely opt for another coalition with Clegg, or with the Ulster Unionists, rather than get into bed with Farage.... In theory, I suppose the Tory right could stage a coup to replace Cameron with Boris, who might be more partial to a deal with UKIP, but there would be popular outrage at that.

 

The byelections will be interesting:

- Clacton: "safe" Tory seat, which the Tories seem to be expecting to lose to Carswell (UKIP)

- Heywood & Middleton: "safe" Labour seat, in which UKIP has a chance, but doesn't seem confident

- Rochester: Tory seat that went Labour under Blair, so could easily be a 3-way marginal (Con/Lab/UKIP)

 

Wouldn't it be amusing if UKIP took Clacton off the Tories, failed to take Heywood off Labour and then Labour came through the middle to win Rochester at the expense of both the Tories and the defecting UKIP MP Reckless?

lol  :yesyes:  

Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted

How come no one ever defects to Labour ?  :ph34r:  :ph34r:

 

Plenty of BNP councillors have defected to Labour in the North.

Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
The byelections will be interesting:

- Clacton: "safe" Tory seat, which the Tories seem to be expecting to lose to Carswell (UKIP)

- Heywood & Middleton: "safe" Labour seat, in which UKIP has a chance, but doesn't seem confident

- Rochester: Tory seat that went Labour under Blair, so could easily be a 3-way marginal (Con/Lab/UKIP)

 

Wouldn't it be amusing if UKIP took Clacton off the Tories, failed to take Heywood off Labour and then Labour came through the middle to win Rochester at the expense of both the Tories and the defecting UKIP MP Reckless?

lol  :yesyes:  

 

Clacton is already sewn up for UKIP, could even become the safest seat in the country on paper as Carswell is expected to hit 60% of the vote.

Heywood will be won by Labour with UKIP coming second.

Rochester will be a fight between UKIP and the Tories, it's one of the those areas that will never vote Labour again for a long time. They got 10,000 last time and they'll probably lose a portion of that to UKIP now.

Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

Posted
Posted

Clacton is already sewn up for UKIP, could even become the safest seat in the country on paper as Carswell is expected to hit 60% of the vote.

Heywood will be won by Labour with UKIP coming second.

Rochester will be a fight between UKIP and the Tories, it's one of the those areas that will never vote Labour again for a long time. They got 10,000 last time and they'll probably lose a portion of that to UKIP now.

 

Shhhhhhh !!!  I was trying to worry a few true blues there, but you've blown it for me now! 

 

Yes, those would be the outcomes that I'd expect for all 3, though the precise vote proportions will be interesting....and we could yet be wrong about Heywood or Rochester; I doubt it, though.

 

Strokes hasn't returned to take my offer of a tenner on UKIP NOT being the 3rd party, in terms of seats, after the general election....

Would you take that bet? I appreciate that it's a fluid situation, but how many seats would you expect UKIP to win at the general election? I think that I'd expect about 5 or 6 at the moment: Farage, Carswell, a couple of Tory seats in Essex or East Anglia (Thurrock? Basildon?Yarmouth?), a couple of Labour rotten boroughs (Rotherham? Grimsby? Doncaster area? Lancs?)

Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted

Shhhhhhh !!!  I was trying to worry a few true blues there, but you've blown it for me now! 

 

Yes, those would be the outcomes that I'd expect for all 3, though the precise vote proportions will be interesting....and we could yet be wrong about Heywood or Rochester; I doubt it, though.

 

Strokes hasn't returned to take my offer of a tenner on UKIP NOT being the 3rd party, in terms of seats, after the general election....

Would you take that bet? I appreciate that it's a fluid situation, but how many seats would you expect UKIP to win at the general election? I think that I'd expect about 5 or 6 at the moment: Farage, Carswell, a couple of Tory seats in Essex or East Anglia (Thurrock? Basildon?Yarmouth?), a couple of Labour rotten boroughs (Rotherham? Grimsby? Doncaster area? Lancs?)

 

No chance, will be the third party in terms of vote percentage but with the absurd political system we have of FPTP UKIP has no chance of getting more seats than the Lib Dems or the SNP.

 

UKIP will win Clacton and should win South Thanet. Apart from that I don't think anything is certain, Thurrock, Boston & Skegness, Rochester, Rotherham, a couple in Cornwall, Newton Abbot are all possible but will take some winning needing the portion of the vote they do.

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