Jump to content

martyn

Member
  • Post count

    3,053
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

martyn last won the day on 9 November 2013

martyn had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

881 Very Good

About martyn

  • Rank
    Key Player

Recent Profile Visitors

6,071 profile views
  1. Kevin Poole is a massive shout. An absolutely rock solid goalkeeper. If he was a bit taller he likely would have spent many years in the top flight. For me 1) Underrated by us - Frank Sinclair. He scored a couple of ridiculous own goals that is a lot of peoples main memory of him, but he was a very decent performer for us overall. 2) Underrated by other fans - Hard to disagree with Vardy. 3) Player thought as awful but not as bad as that - Ian Ormondroyd. Yes he was a gangly freak of nature, but he played an important role for us at times, especially towards the end of the 93-94 promotion season.
  2. martyn

    Corona Virus

    Seems like the way deaths in the UK are being reported has changed. It now requires permission from the family of the deceased to be counted (note, the healthy 21 year old girl who died recently does not appear in official statistics as yet). Will explain the bizarrely low number reported yesterday compared to the trajectory the UK was on previously. Wonder why the government have decided to take this approach.
  3. martyn

    Corona Virus

    Whitty and Vallance were claiming there were likely about 50k infections when the "official" total was about 5.5k. Italy health minister estimated they could have circa 500-600k infections when their official total was 60k. Whether that's true is anybody's guess, but suggests official numbers could be out (taking lag into account) by 5-10 times. As for the governments handling of this, i am a big critic, but i'm glad they saw the light eventually. The old pandemic modelling was based off of data which wouldn't account for such a high % of cases needing hospital treatment. It was clear early on from Chinese data (taken at face value), let alone Italian data, that a "take it on the chin" approach would overwhelm the NHS in double quick time. Given our capacity, this should have been seen earlier, lockdown enforced earlier, and time bought to increase capacity in the health service before gradually lifting some restrictions. As it is, we'll probably get this first wave where many people simply can't get treated, and a lockdown in place until modellers are sure the NHS can cope.
  4. martyn

    Corona Virus

    I think the only reason we've not locked down yet is that it'd look terrible for the government and experts to crystalise their u turn so quickly. Give it a couple of days, get the communications straight (i.e. what bullshit explanation will the public most likely believe) around why we need to do it e.g. "science has changed", then push the button.
  5. martyn

    Corona Virus

    No idea how infection rates going to come down in 2 to 3 weeks unless a nationwide lockdown is ordered. Walked up to the Supermarket this afternoon and everyone was carrying on as normal, cafe's all packed out.
  6. martyn

    Corona Virus

    Also a more immediate draconian strategy also buys time for us to understand and hopefully mass produce medicines which might work with severe cases, allow us to increase capacity as much as possible in the health service in terms of beds/ventilators etc etc. If that is months, so be it. Decision I came to at home last week was it was critical for us as a family to try as best as possible to avoid this initial surge in cases if at all possible (we've been social distancing for a week), because it would soon become apparent that the NHS would collapse and then there'd need to be a fundamental shift in tactics that everyone would have to get behind.
  7. martyn

    Corona Virus

    Only taken them weeks longer than the average layman. You only had to look at the WHO statistics which clearly inferred the disease severity, and then the experiences of China and Italy to know our NHS would buckle in 5 minutes given the fundamental lack of capacity. Then you have the deputy Chief Medical Officer stating confidently that 99% will recover and our health secretary desperately tweeting for people to produce ventilators. Absolute negligence all round.
  8. martyn

    Corona Virus

    Not right this second of course, the risk is low, but then you have Boris talking about letting the virus ride through the population. Merkel saying 70% will get infected until vaccine etc. With that in mind, how will society react when we see the scenes from Italy (and soon to be Spain by the look of it) start replicating here.
  9. martyn

    Corona Virus

    Right and yet with such a minuscule % infected, the health system in an area containing 15% + of Italian population has collapsed to such an extent anyone under 60 in severe arrest aren't even being treated.
  10. martyn

    Corona Virus

    It does, in a way. However, based on the actual WHO statistics on those requiring hospital care (20%) and not throwaway ones we get from govt spokespeople (99% will recover) do we really think society is going to accept that when news starts getting out about carnage and chaos in UK hospitals, in the short term. The govt have been very clever with their messaging to avoid panic. Always adding "elderly with underlying conditions" when announcing deaths, radio news bulletins always ending segments with "but for most, symptoms are mild" and now parroting "science based" decision making to add gravitas. Its all well and good, but when shit actually hits the fan in the short term, and its visible, will a panicking society at large accept this.
  11. martyn

    Corona Virus

    Italy does not include Lombardy figures yet
  12. martyn

    Corona Virus

    The figures from Italy show 60+% of positive cases are hospitalised. Either the true number of cases is vastly underreported, or the disease is far far more serious. Id guess, and hope for the former as the much lesser of 2 evils.
  13. martyn

    Corona Virus

    But SARS was far far far less transmissible than Coronavirus. You simply cannot compare. Sars blew itself out after 800 cases, Coronavirus is now growing exponentially everywhere where serious proactive, protective measures have not been implemented. Im amazed how many people are not taking this seriously. The numbers quoted also dont take into account what happens to health care capacity as infections contunue to increase. The percentage requiring hospitalisation and Intensive Care is alarming so how on earth do we cope when things ramp up here. Italy is already creaking.
  14. martyn

    Corona Virus

    Saw something on Twitter from a data scientist the other day about based on the number of exported infections from into other countries italy, the actual number of cases there was likely underestimated by a factor of 3.5-4 by the end of feb. Edit: Found it https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1236004937529798659?s=20 This us now coming home to roost. We will soon be facing something similar somewhere in the UK pretty soon.
  15. martyn

    Corona Virus

    I'm pretty pessimistic about where this ends up, but for it to get to 80% total infection and 20% simultaneously it would need an absolute catalogue of utter failures. Government will close schools ban mass gatherings and recommended working from home for anyone who can do it long before a situation like that could arise (id hope).
×
×
  • Create New...