Odds of Relegation

[Bilo]

5/1 seems a big price, but this is just the bookies trying for damage limitation. A big price about relegation means a short price about survival; if they make us odds-against for survival, they'll have professional punters just waiting in the wings to batter them. They've clearly looked at our form and run-in, worried about the level of payouts they could end up making in the event of our survival and decided a huge price on relegation is less of a financial risk. 

 

Don't forget as well that they'll have had enormous amounts of money on us being relegated from about Christmas onwards, such was the gap. 

 

If you want to see evidence of them panicking, look at the survival odds being frantically cut over the past month!

 

21st March (After defeat to Tottenham) 9/2 available.

4th April (Morning of West Ham game) 10/3

5th April (Morning after West Ham game) 5/2

11th April (Morning of West Brom game) 11/4 available.

12th April (Morning after West Brom game) No bigger than Evens.

18th April (Morning of Swansea game) 10/11

19th April (Morning after Swansea game) 4/11

Yesterday morning: 3/10

Latest odds (best available in market): 1/7

 

So in four weeks, we've been cut from 9/2 to 1/7, at best, to stay in the division. I'm sure you'll see a similar inverse pattern for relegation - reason? That's  the market where the bookies want to see your money being invested, they're shit scared of taking a hit on Leicester's survival. 

[lestajigs]

£15 on £105, bk tempting

[lestajigs]

£15 on £105, bk tempting

Done, some compensation if the unthinkable happens

[Bilo]

Of far more interest to me having said all that is the price on Newcastle. At 20/1 in places, you'll get a decent run for your money if we beat them on Saturday.

[DB11]

I'm not much of a betting person and the only time I have bet against Leicester (£20 as well!) was when we were at home to Manchester United... well we won 5-3 in probably the most exciting game I've watched on TV and although I enjoyed that I am not risking £20 every week!

[Salieri]

Of far more interest to me having said all that is the price on Newcastle. At 20/1 in places, you'll get a decent run for your money if we beat them on Saturday.

Got them at 25/1 yesterday, worth a punt.

[shailen]

Had us as handicap at the start of the season. Got 20/1 on +42 when I was convinced we would get around 45 points. 

[ImBlue]

Joke right?

No.

Update. I have signed up to 2 bookies for free bets. Staked £15 and got £50 over 2 sites in free bets. Put £50 at average of 11/2 for us to go down.

Made £35 off my £15 initial stake, so if we go down, season ticket paid for, if not, happy days

[Guest MattP]

6/1 is ridiculous. We're only a point above the relegation zone. Should be 3/1 maximum. It's certainly not beyond the realms of possibility that we lose, draw, lose our next three.

 

It's not really when you look at the upcoming fixtures, I actually think one more win will do it for us seeing what Hull and Sunderland have to come and with Newcastle and a probably already relegated QPR on the last day of the season that should be well within our reach.

 

 

Of far more interest to me having said all that is the price on Newcastle. At 20/1 in places, you'll get a decent run for your money if we beat them on Saturday.

 

First thing I checked on Sunday were the odds on Newcastle as I was intending to have a punt myself but looking at the run ins of Hull and Sunderland I actually think they have enough already, I have 33 points being enough to keep a side up and Newcastle have two more than that already.

 

QPR and Burnley look as good as gone and I can't see Sunderland picking up three points unless they can beat us before the end of the season.

[doncht]

Same here. I think Sunderland just need to do some drastic changes. Not sure on what that is. 

[fuchsntf]

Not really no.

 

I've been quite adament that whenever I bet on Leicester they lose and when I bet against they pull a result out the bag whether that is win or draw. Which i'm happy about don't get me wrong (Well I am when I bet against and they win, when I back them and they lose i'm doubly pissed off). Superstitious? Maybe. Trying to make the best out of a bad situation and be in a 'win-win' situation? Definetly.

 

Saying that I did bet on us yesterday and we won (Unfortunately other teams let me down) - I was shitting myself that I thought i'd jinxed it though.

 

I know you had a spew earlier in the season about people betting against Leicester but people do it and it's abit of a 'pick me up' if Leicester do lose that atleast financially you're happy. On Boxing Day Harry Kane 1st goalscorer was the easiest (And quickest) bet I have ever won.

 

All I will say is thank fuck I was too chicken to put a big bet (I was considering probably the biggest bet i've ever placed) on us finishing bottom a few weeks back!!

try betting 100.000, that you wont win the lotto jackpot this weekend, see what happens.

So long has no more than 15 people share the win, your quids in.

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

Must be a more realistic price after tonights result.

[st albans fox]

It's not really when you look at the upcoming fixtures, I actually think one more win will do it for us seeing what Hull and Sunderland have to come and with Newcastle and a probably already relegated QPR on the last day of the season that should be well within our reach.

First thing I checked on Sunday were the odds on Newcastle as I was intending to have a punt myself but looking at the run ins of Hull and Sunderland I actually think they have enough already, I have 33 points being enough to keep a side up and Newcastle have two more than that already.

QPR and Burnley look as good as gone and I can't see Sunderland picking up three points unless they can beat us before the end of the season.

Hopefully matt, the hull l'pool game last night will have introduced a degree of realism to the debate. Whilst burnley and qpr may struggle to pick up a couple of wins, there is no reason why established PL squads at hull, s'land, villa and Newcastle won't pick up two or three wins. We have to keep this going - I think 37 or 38 points could be the minimum required.

[NotTheMarketLeader]

Are now 6/1, according to SkyBet.

Is it bad that I'm considering sneaking a £40 bet onto it? Would you ever bet against Leicester?

Those odds of 6/1 for us to be relegated are massive when compared to Sunderland at 1/3. And certainly a decent value bet.

That is a huge disparity when you consider we have to go there, and we are only 1pt ahead.

Last night's win for Hull highlights what I've been saying that we are still in the shit. A lot of people were saying 'Hull have a shocking run in', 'they won't win another game' etc. - the very thing others were saying about us a month ago. We've won 4 on the spin, they 2, which goes to show all those who were saying we were as good as up -anything can happen.

We need 7 points I'm thinking at least, 1 to come at Sunderland. The 6/1, if we are being totally dispassionate is a great bet

[The Railway Man]

Those odds of 6/1 for us to be relegated are massive when compared to Sunderland at 1/3. And certainly a decent value bet.

That is a huge disparity when you consider we have to go there, and we are only 1pt ahead.

Last night's win for Hull highlights what I've been saying that we are still in the shit. A lot of people were saying 'Hull have a shocking run in', 'they won't win another game' etc. - the very thing others were saying about us a month ago. We've won 4 on the spin, they 2, which goes to show all those who were saying we were as good as up -anything can happen.

We need 7 points I'm thinking at least, 1 to come at Sunderland. The 6/1, if we are being totally dispassionate is a great bet

 

Given 3 of Sunderland's fixtures are Everton, Arsenal and Chelsea away I wouldn't want to be giving any bigger than 1/3 on them being relegated. Sunderland can get to 36 if they beat us and Southampton at home (and thats a big ask imo given how poor they are). That still might not be enough.

 

Sunderland v Soton is huge Saturday, if they don't win that I don't see anyway back for them.

[NotTheMarketLeader]

It's not really when you look at the upcoming fixtures, I actually think one more win will do it for us seeing what Hull and Sunderland have to come and with Newcastle and a probably already relegated QPR on the last day of the season that should be well within our reach.

First thing I checked on Sunday were the odds on Newcastle as I was intending to have a punt myself but looking at the run ins of Hull and Sunderland I actually think they have enough already, I have 33 points being enough to keep a side up and Newcastle have two more than that already.

QPR and Burnley look as good as gone and I can't see Sunderland picking up three points unless they can beat us before the end of the season.

33 pts to keep us up - I think that is very optimistic. Or put it another way, I certainly would not feel comfortable knowing that we would finish with 33 points.

Sunderland have 5 games to play they win one of them and we could be down on your thinking with goal difference maybe counting.

The Sunderland game could be the biggest game for us in 10 years!

[The Railway Man]

33 pts to keep us up - I think that is very optimistic. Or put it another way, I certainly would not feel comfortable knowing that we would finish with 33 points.

Sunderland have 5 games to play they win one of them and we could be down on your thinking with goal difference maybe counting.

The Sunderland game could be the biggest game for us in 10 years!

 

I wouldn't and if we manage to finish with 33 points given we've got QPR, Newcastle at home and Sunderland away we'll fully deserve to go down.

 

Not saying 34 points will keep us up, but it wouldn't surprise me if it did looking at the run ins of the teams.

[Guest bennytwohats]

I wouldn't and if we manage to finish with 33 points given we've got QPR, Newcastle at home and Sunderland away we'll fully deserve to go down.

 

Not saying 34 points will keep us up, but it wouldn't surprise me if it did looking at the run ins of the teams.

 

I was thinking that. Then Hull beat Palace away and Liverpool at home. Two game I expected them to lose.

 

Anything can happen

[Max Power]

Newcastle were 100/1 after their insipid defeat to Sunderland, I had a look but said "Nah, they've already got enough points". Should have stuck a cheeky fiver on at least. They are well in it if us and Sunderland win on Saturday.

[yorksfox]

there has been a load of nonsense posted on this site re. Targets for next season etc etc. We are still very much in a relegation dogfight and may be without the pace (Vardy and Schlupp) and the guile(Nugent) that have been instrumental in getting us close to a possible escape. Just when we need a fully fit squad the injuries are occurring! There is too much talk of other teams and their 'tough' run-ins, ours is far from easy!!!

[NotTheMarketLeader]

there has been a load of nonsense posted on this site re. Targets for next season etc etc. We are still very much in a relegation dogfight and may be without the pace (Vardy and Schlupp) and the guile(Nugent) that have been instrumental in getting us close to a possible escape. Just when we need a fully fit squad the injuries are occurring! There is too much talk of other teams and their 'tough' run-ins, ours is far from easy!!!

Agreed

[bovril]

I've been guilty of obsessing over tables and predicting points totals.

 

But these kind of threads remind me of the great William Goldman: "Nobody knows anything".

[ROB-THE-BLUE]

City are 11/2 to go down on Coral. I know we're in form but that's very generous!

[doncht]

I saw this one too. I think they thought of Christmas earlier.