talking_goldfish Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 How about the fact that in the history of English football, there has never been a season where there has been more away wins than home. Basing your thinking on the results of this season is a bit short sighted! You say that but there is an argument to suggest that the tide is turning. With the rise of quick counter-attacking football it is becoming easier to overcome the advantaged posed by playing at home. In a few years these statistics could look quite different.
Viva Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 You say that but there is an argument to suggest that the tide is turning. With the rise of quick counter-attacking football it is becoming easier to overcome the advantaged posed by playing at home. In a few years these statistics could look quite different. Oh yes, the gap is closing and has been for a few years, but it is still significant. Only Palace last season in the Premier League got more points away from home than home. 45% of matches were home wins in total. So not too much of a myth!
davieG Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 Ranieri went on to confirm that Dyer, on loan from Swansea City until the end of the season, will miss out after picking up a knock in the 3-2 win over Aston Villa. Midfielder Matty James is City’s only long-term absentee as he continues his recovery from a knee injury. The City boss added: “Nathan Dyer is back but he’s not ready to play. Today, he had his first training session back with us.” Read more at http://www.lcfc.com/news/article/ranieris-injury-update-vardy-dyer-2721947.aspx#ZVdaj7ELTlC0MoCh.99
The Doctor Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 How about the fact that in the history of English football, there has never been a season where there has been more away wins than home. Basing your thinking on the results of this season is a bit short sighted! I'm not basing my thinking on that but rather that the home win rate has sat around 45% for the past three seasons, not that much better than a random coin toss, factor out the top six (quality gulf that obviously doesn't apply to this match) and it gets smaller - home advantage is massively, massively overstated and betting based on it is daft
Viva Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 I'm not basing my thinking on that but rather that the home win rate has sat around 45% for the past three seasons, not that much better than a random coin toss, factor out the top six (quality gulf that obviously doesn't apply to this match) and it gets smaller - home advantage is massively, massively overstated and betting based on it is daft Are you forgetting that there are three outcomes to a football match? The away win percentage is usually around 30% or under. So basically 50% or so more home wins than away wins. I knew I'd get entertainment from asking your views on this!
The Doctor Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 The rough breakdown is 10-15 percent more home than away wins, which in a season with 380 games works out to around 45 more home than away wins. It's not a significant factor, that much is obvious. Im not going further than that, I' don't need you to demonstrate the dunning-Krueger effect.
ARM1968 Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 Stats are awesome, you can twist them until they squeal. Only truly important stat is our points compared with the other teams after Chelsea at home.
TheUltimateWinner Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 1:23 onwards... looks an unchanged team.
Viva Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 The rough breakdown is 10-15 percent more home than away wins, which in a season with 380 games works out to around 45 more home than away wins. It's not a significant factor, that much is obvious. Im not going further than that, I' don't need you to demonstrate the dunning-Krueger effect. Actually it's 171 home wins to 114 away. So like I said 50% more home wins than away. Bit more than the 10-15% but hey I already knew stats and betting wasn't your strong point! If you think bookies should ignore those kind of stats season on season when they price up a game, then you are a being a bit silly really.
The Doctor Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 Last season, discounting the top six it was 80 home to 46 away. The season before 82 home to 51 away, before that 78 to 47 away, the season before that 72 home to 55 away. So that's 34 more last season, 31 more the season before, 31 the season before that, 27 in 2011/12. Granted slightly more than 10-15 (20-25 instead). So, on average each club has 2 more home wins than away wins per season. Real big factor that
Viva Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 Last season, discounting the top six it was 80 home to 46 away. The season before 82 home to 51 away, before that 78 to 47 away, the season before that 72 home to 55 away. So that's 34 more last season, 31 more the season before, 31 the season before that, 27 in 2011/12. Granted slightly more than 10-15 (20-25 instead). So, on average each club has 2 more home wins than away wins per season. Real big factor that So by discounting a load of matches to try and make things look better for you, they actually look worse! 80 home wins to 46 away last season! You don't call that a significant difference?! Nice one!
The Doctor Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 So by discounting a load of matches to try and make things look better for you, they actually look worse! 80 home wins to 46 away last season! You don't call that a significant difference?! Nice one! I discounted them because of the massive gulf in class - otherwise you're comparing chelsea 8-0 wigan and Sunderland v Burnley and claiming they're equal. 2 more wins over a 38 game season is 5.2% of a teams wins, 5% is the typical point of statistical significance (i.e. not completely due to random chance), so it's significant by 0.2%, meaning it's a very minor factor at most. Feel free to quit while you're behind, I'm quite bored of playing pigeon chess.
Viva Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 I discounted them because of the massive gulf in class - otherwise you're comparing chelsea 8-0 wigan and Sunderland v Burnley and claiming they're equal. 2 more wins over a 38 game season is 5.2% of a teams wins, 5% is the typical point of statistical significance (i.e. not completely due to random chance), so it's significant by 0.2%, meaning it's a very minor factor at most. Feel free to quit while you're behind, I'm quite bored of playing pigeon chess. 80-46. Nearly 75% more home wins than away. I don't need to say any more. Thanks for giving me some amusement again today though. I look forward to having another laugh at your betting knowledge another time. Cheers
GingerrrFox Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 All I know is I ****ing love N'golo Kante. When he scores his first goal for us this Saturday against Norwich he will be too shy to celebrate and my heart will melt. I ****ing love him.
Soar Fox Posted 1 October 2015 Posted 1 October 2015 18% of regular season completed (70 matches /380) Home wins 34% Draws 29% Away wins 37% http://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=england
Viva Posted 2 October 2015 Posted 2 October 2015 18% of regular season completed (70 matches /380) Home wins 34% Draws 29% Away wins 37% http://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=england Oh well done, you found the stats for 7 games this season. Good work. Like I said earlier, it would be a bit short sighted to ignore 130 odd years of stats and base your thinking around 7 rounds of matches.
hejammy Posted 2 October 2015 Posted 2 October 2015 Mark lawrenson "I think they will tear into the Foxes, and I fancy them to beat them.".......
lgfualol Posted 2 October 2015 Posted 2 October 2015 Mark lawrenson "I think they will tear into the Foxes, and I fancy them to beat them."....... I don't disagree. Any team would be encouraged just by watching our defence in any game this season.
Guest ttfn Posted 2 October 2015 Posted 2 October 2015 Oh well done, you found the stats for 7 games this season. Good work. Like I said earlier, it would be a bit short sighted to ignore 130 odd years of stats and base your thinking around 7 rounds of matches. Equally it would be unfair to give the same weighting to games which happened 130 years ago, when players would probably have had to get an uncomfortable train to away games and officials weren't as well regulated, to today, when everything possible is done to ensure the best preparation for the away team. People might take your perfectly good point more seriously if you didn't talk down to them.
st albans fox Posted 2 October 2015 Posted 2 October 2015 can't believe CR will make our away fixtures into a basketball game? I'd also wonder if most opposition managers would simply take on the challenge. I wouldn't in their position (discounting the top 4). Think this is really interesting fixture re the period pre January. could be a defining game with a convincing result either way, given our great start and the arsenal defeat. another loss and we have another away fixture before we get the chance to put things right home to palace (that would bring back memories of last season for the players). A good win and the bandwagon rolls again.
The Doctor Posted 2 October 2015 Posted 2 October 2015 80-46. Nearly 75% more home wins than away. I don't need to say any more. Thanks for giving me some amusement again today though. I look forward to having another laugh at your betting knowledge another time. Cheers 34/126 is 26.9%, not 75%...
Viva Posted 2 October 2015 Posted 2 October 2015 Equally it would be unfair to give the same weighting to games which happened 130 years ago, when players would probably have had to get an uncomfortable train to away games and officials weren't as well regulated, to today, when everything possible is done to ensure the best preparation for the away team. People might take your perfectly good point more seriously if you didn't talk down to them. It was clearly being used to back up the Doc who is wrong in this discussion. Hence why my tone was like that.
The Doctor Posted 2 October 2015 Posted 2 October 2015 It was clearly being used to back up the Doc who is wrong in this discussion. Hence why my tone was like that. So, we're just ignoring the point that home advantage is worth 5% of games (equal to two wins), meaning it very rarely plays a factor and only really works if all other factors are equal, which doesn't happen in reality...
Viva Posted 2 October 2015 Posted 2 October 2015 So, we're just ignoring the point that home advantage is worth 5% of games (equal to two wins), meaning it very rarely plays a factor and only really works if all other factors are equal, which doesn't happen in reality... I'm ignoring your stupid breakdown and attempt to justify your wrong argument, yes. I deal with simple facts as you said 80 home wins to 46. A significant difference which is why bookmakers factor this into their prices. if you think they shouldn't factor this into their decision then you are just plain stupid. Simple as that.
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