leicsmac Posted 7 December 2017 Posted 7 December 2017 11 minutes ago, Webbo said: We don't have to buy anything that's unsafe, your original point was about saving jobs. I'm not sure unsafe trade products was what Doc was referring to here. More likely the Irish Question raising its head again and more physical trouble crossing an open border?
Webbo Posted 7 December 2017 Posted 7 December 2017 1 minute ago, leicsmac said: I'm not sure unsafe trade products was what Doc was referring to here. More likely the Irish Question raising its head again and more physical trouble crossing an open border? There's not much cross border trade in Ireland, single digit percentage wise. We already have different VAT and excise duties with them, anything crossing the border now is sorted out before it loaded onto the lorry. If there was a will to sort this out on the EU side it wouldn't take to much trouble.
leicsmac Posted 7 December 2017 Posted 7 December 2017 Just now, Webbo said: There's not much cross border trade in Ireland, single digit percentage wise. We already have different VAT and excise duties with them, anything crossing the border now is sorted out before it loaded onto the lorry. If there was a will to sort this out on the EU side it wouldn't take to much trouble. I agree that trade wouldn't be an issue because as you say most of that is ironed out already. My own argument is that sectarians on both sides would use any change of border status as an excuse to fall out again. If the argument is that nothing will change in terms of the border status then fair enough but that would mean treating Ireland differently to the other EU nations we're going to leave, right?
Webbo Posted 7 December 2017 Posted 7 December 2017 2 minutes ago, leicsmac said: I agree that trade wouldn't be an issue because as you say most of that is ironed out already. My own argument is that sectarians on both sides would use any change of border status as an excuse to fall out again. If the argument is that nothing will change in terms of the border status then fair enough but that would mean treating Ireland differently to the other EU nations we're going to leave, right? Well Ireland is the only country we have a land border with so that makes them different. If we have a free trade agreement with the EU this problem goes away so it doesn't make sense to force the issue now.
leicsmac Posted 7 December 2017 Posted 7 December 2017 Just now, Webbo said: Well Ireland is the only country we have a land border with so that makes them different. If we have a free trade agreement with the EU this problem goes away so it doesn't make sense to force the issue now. Fair enough - we'll see how this plays out, though if we single out Ireland as a special case border-wise in terms of movement you can bet there will be some noise. Mind you, there'll also be some if we don't, so this is a bit of a catch-22 IMO.
Guest Posted 7 December 2017 Posted 7 December 2017 2 minutes ago, Webbo said: Well Ireland is the only country we have a land border with so that makes them different. If we have a free trade agreement with the EU this problem goes away so it doesn't make sense to force the issue now. I think the issue is that in 15 months we won't be members so the Irish want something in the exit agreement to state what will happen if free trade is not forthcoming. This doesn't preclude free trade later being agreed.
Innovindil Posted 7 December 2017 Posted 7 December 2017 20 minutes ago, toddybad said: I think the issue is that in 15 months we won't be members so the Irish want something in the exit agreement to state what will happen if free trade is not forthcoming. This doesn't preclude free trade later being agreed. It seems daft to me. So they try to force an agreement we may not even need into the exit agreement which is holding it up, which gives us less time to try and organise a free trade agreement which would make the original part of the exit agreement irrelevant anyway. Why not tackle the problem when or if it actually becomes a problem.
Rogstanley Posted 7 December 2017 Posted 7 December 2017 3 hours ago, Webbo said: There's not much cross border trade in Ireland, single digit percentage wise. We already have different VAT and excise duties with them, anything crossing the border now is sorted out before it loaded onto the lorry. If there was a will to sort this out on the EU side it wouldn't take to much trouble. 31% of NI’s exports go to ROI according to this, far far more than go to any other country https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.assemblyresearchmatters.org/2017/06/14/goods-northern-ireland-export-much-worth-go/amp/
Webbo Posted 7 December 2017 Posted 7 December 2017 22 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: 31% of NI’s exports go to ROI according to this, far far more than go to any other country https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.assemblyresearchmatters.org/2017/06/14/goods-northern-ireland-export-much-worth-go/amp/ Quote 59% of what Northern Ireland sold outside its own borders in 2015 went to the rest of the UK. 15% went to the Republic of Ireland, 8% to the rest of the EU, and 16% to the rest of the world. https://fullfact.org/economy/60-northern-irelands-exports-go-rest-uk/ So it's 15%, I was a bit out. Your figures can't count sales to the rest of the UK as exports. In fact the figures I read last week were probably a percentage of total trade. I can't find the article now.
DANGEROUS TIGER Posted 7 December 2017 Posted 7 December 2017 3 hours ago, Webbo said: Well Ireland is the only country we have a land border with so that makes them different. If we have a free trade agreement with the EU this problem goes away so it doesn't make sense to force the issue now. Yes, mate, you are right. Mountains being made out of molehills really.
Guest MattP Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 Sufficient progress made to move onto the second phase of talks. Despite what the press are telling you this is going fine, the Irish border and the divorce bill were both things many said could stop this, we've got it settled before Christmas. A shame about the total shambles on Monday, but we've got there in the end.
Realist Guy In The Room Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 So in the event of no satisfactory deal, we stay in the single market and customs union. What a waste of time.
Webbo Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 It seems like a Swiss type agreement. We implement their regs but we're not in the custom union . We can make our own deals.
Guest MattP Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 Arlene Foster on what has changed on Sky. (Why are the BBC not giving this full coverage on their channel like the others?) "There is no red line down the Irish sea & clear confirmation that the entirety of the UK is leaving the Europen Union, leaving the single market & leaving the customs union." Long way to go though, we now need to start talking about how much tariff free access is going to cost us, again, if it's too much, we should walk away. Varadkar quoting Churchill in his press conf, I really do like him
Guest Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 21 minutes ago, MattP said: Arlene Foster on what has changed on Sky. (Why are the BBC not giving this full coverage on their channel like the others?) "There is no red line down the Irish sea & clear confirmation that the entirety of the UK is leaving the Europen Union, leaving the single market & leaving the customs union." Long way to go though, we now need to start talking about how much tariff free access is going to cost us, again, if it's too much, we should walk away. Varadkar quoting Churchill in his press conf, I really do like him This is hardly going to be Brexit at all by the time it's finished
Strokes Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 1 minute ago, toddybad said: This is hardly going to be Brexit at all by the time it's finished If we can strike trade deals and control migration, I think that has the best chance of pleasing most people. It’s not ideal, it’s not the brexit I would have wanted but it gives us a base to move on from. It’s the deal least likely to enthuse anyone but also least likely to upset.
Guest MattP Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 3 minutes ago, toddybad said: This is hardly going to be Brexit at all by the time it's finished You said you were feeling smug earlier in the week when you were claiming it was all breaking down. Would you like to congratulate Mrs May on getting to the second stage? We are going to have compromise in any negotiation, but at the minute we now have the Irish government happy with the proposal, the EU happy with the "divorce bill" and we are now ready to start talking about trade and all this happens whilst the official Brexit policy is still to leave the single market and the customs union. Maybe it's because the other side have predicted such a disaster but I'm pretty happy with where we are. The hyperbole from the press this week has been absolutely ridiculous. Almost insane when you look back at some of the predictions on from Monday/Tuesday.
Guest Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 2 minutes ago, Strokes said: If we can strike trade deals and control migration, I think that has the best chance of pleasing most people. It’s not ideal, it’s not the brexit I would have wanted but it gives us a base to move on from. It’s the deal least likely to enthuse anyone but also least likely to upset. I actually think teresa may has just pulled off one of the greatest political manoeuvres of all time. True Brexiteers are distraught at the deal so far - have a look at farage's commentary. Calling it a national humiliation. But the tory Brexiters know they are in a huge minority in both party and parliament so are trying to save face by claiming a sort of victory - see Michael gove's commentary. Remainers will be happy with a deal that essentially harmonises our laws with the EU forever (as by the end of 8 years our own laws will be enacted but case law will have set precedents in line with EU laws) and owns the way for a deal which will see relatively open borders. May has produced a deal that can be claimed as Brexit whilst keeping the establishment happy. Remainers are happy and leavers are pretending to be happy to save face that all of their red lines have been crossed
Webbo Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 3 minutes ago, Strokes said: If we can strike trade deals and control migration, I think that has the best chance of pleasing most people. It’s not ideal, it’s not the brexit I would have wanted but it gives us a base to move on from. It’s the deal least likely to enthuse anyone but also least likely to upset. I think that's fair. I've always thought we should take what we could get and see how we got on, then see if we can improve on it as time goes on. It'll probably be 10 years or more until we get to our final position.
lifted*fox Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, MattP said: Would you like to congratulate Mrs May on getting to the second stage? ew lol, so cringe. Edited 8 December 2017 by lifted*fox
Guest MattP Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 2 minutes ago, toddybad said: I actually think teresa may has just pulled off one of the greatest political manoeuvres of all time. True Brexiteers are distraught at the deal so far - have a look at farage's commentary. Calling it a national humiliation. But the tory Brexiters know they are in a huge minority in both party and parliament so are trying to save face by claiming a sort of victory - see Michael gove's commentary. Remainers will be happy with a deal that essentially harmonises our laws with the EU forever (as by the end of 8 years our own laws will be enacted but case law will have set precedents in line with EU laws) and owns the way for a deal which will see relatively open borders. May has produced a deal that can be claimed as Brexit whilst keeping the establishment happy. Remainers are happy and leavers are pretending to be happy to save face that all of their red lines have been crossed Of course we are Nigel Farage isn't the sole voice of the "True Brexiteers" (whatever they are) you know, the most votes UKIP ever got in an election was about 3 million, 17.4 million voted for Brexit. Negotiation involves compromise and at the minute we are still on course to leave the European Union in 2019 and then after a small transition period go out into the wider World - which red lines have been crossed? I got woken up this morning by what I thought was the sound of Nick Clegg crying into his cornflakes, ironically I think the aggression and desire of people like him in determining to stop Brexit gives the Prime Minister a little more leeway in her own party. A bit like Gina Millar his action has actually helped the cause rather than hindered it. Two quotes stuck with me from the Sunday political shows after the referendum on the Beeb, Andrew Marr said "My humble advice is if you voted to Leave, it won't be as good as you think and if you've voted Remain, it won't be as bad as you think" Andrew Neil said "I think we'll probably get to the end and as usual, both sides will be claiming a victory" Both of those are already looking absolutely spot on.
Strokes Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 5 minutes ago, toddybad said: I actually think teresa may has just pulled off one of the greatest political manoeuvres of all time. True Brexiteers are distraught at the deal so far - have a look at farage's commentary. Calling it a national humiliation. But the tory Brexiters know they are in a huge minority in both party and parliament so are trying to save face by claiming a sort of victory - see Michael gove's commentary. Remainers will be happy with a deal that essentially harmonises our laws with the EU forever (as by the end of 8 years our own laws will be enacted but case law will have set precedents in line with EU laws) and owns the way for a deal which will see relatively open borders. May has produced a deal that can be claimed as Brexit whilst keeping the establishment happy. Remainers are happy and leavers are pretending to be happy to save face that all of their red lines have been crossed I’m not pretending to be happy, I’m not happy. I may be satisfied but I need more details to be able to conclude my feelings. If you’re happy great, if she has pleased a lot of like minded folk like yourself we should see a surge in the polls.
Guest MattP Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 This was also the first day since the vote that Brexit did actually mean Breakfast.
Fox Ulike Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 38 minutes ago, MattP said: Of course we are Nigel Farage isn't the sole voice of the "True Brexiteers" (whatever they are) you know, the most votes UKIP ever got in an election was about 3 million, 17.4 million voted for Brexit. Negotiation involves compromise and at the minute we are still on course to leave the European Union in 2019 and then after a small transition period go out into the wider World - which red lines have been crossed? I got woken up this morning by what I thought was the sound of Nick Clegg crying into his cornflakes, ironically I think the aggression and desire of people like him in determining to stop Brexit gives the Prime Minister a little more leeway in her own party. A bit like Gina Millar his action has actually helped the cause rather than hindered it. Two quotes stuck with me from the Sunday political shows after the referendum on the Beeb, Andrew Marr said "My humble advice is if you voted to Leave, it won't be as good as you think and if you've voted Remain, it won't be as bad as you think" Andrew Neil said "I think we'll probably get to the end and as usual, both sides will be claiming a victory" Both of those are already looking absolutely spot on. Yessss. In fact, because the whole thing is probably not going to be a disaster, the sheer relief could provide Britain with the confidence and positivity to push on. Like narrowly avoiding being hit by a speeding bus.
Innovindil Posted 8 December 2017 Posted 8 December 2017 6 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said: Yessss. In fact, because the whole thing is probably not going to be a disaster, the sheer relief could provide Britain with the confidence and positivity to push on. Like narrowly avoiding being hit by a speeding bus. Wouldn't bet on it with the state of some of them on here. 1
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