FT General Election Poll 2019

[UniFox21]

2 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

I'd vote for you if you went for MP 

[Guest MattP]

Good riddance to Watson, if he had any dignity he would have resigned after the Carl Beech affair - his attack on Proctor was the most outrageous use of parliamentary privilege I've seen and the pain the family must have felt I can't imagine. His wife died with the allegations still hanging over him.

 

I imagine his internal polling didn't look great in West Bromwich either, bookies had Tories slight favourites to unseat him.

[HappyHamza]

It's always the people that decry the politics of personality the loudest that do nothing but attack the man target than the ball. 

 

Let's see some tory supporters discuss policy for a change.

[Strokes]

3 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

It's always the people that decry the politics of personality the loudest that do nothing but attack the man target than the ball. 

 

Let's see some tory supporters discuss policy for a change.

I’m not interested in any other policy until the withdrawal from the European Union has been sorted.

Its not like manifesto’s are worth the paper they are written on in any case.

Is there a particular policy you would like to discuss? 

[EnderbyFox]

 

Jesus christ 

[Alf Bentley]

30 minutes ago, MattP said:

Good riddance to Watson, if he had any dignity he would have resigned after the Carl Beech affair - his attack on Proctor was the most outrageous use of parliamentary privilege I've seen and the pain the family must have felt I can't imagine. His wife died with the allegations still hanging over him.

 

I imagine his internal polling didn't look great in West Bromwich either, bookies had Tories slight favourites to unseat him.

 

Watson was badly tainted by the Carl Beech business. There would have been nothing wrong in passing on information received to the police or even in being fooled into believing Beech.

But using his position to publicly accuse people of the vilest of crimes, based only on Beech's claims, was reckless, possibly egotistical and certainly shamefully poor judgment. His failure to apologise properly leaves a sour taste.

 

Are you getting confused about Proctor, though? I know Leon Brittan died before he could be cleared, but Proctor is unmarried and gay, isn't he? Indeed, that's probably why Beech targeted him with his accusations - a sign of changing times - because in the 80s, Proctor was convicted of "gross indecency" and forced to stand down as a right-wing Tory MP after the tabloids revealed that he'd taken part in S&M sessions with young men in their late teens (at a time when the gay age of consent was still 21 - a policy then strongly supported by most Tories & upheld by the Thatcher Govt).

 

This Watson resignation is a bit odd as the resignation letters exchanged with Corbyn are superficially quite amicable - not even anything "veiled". Maybe Watson is just being loyal to the party and more will be revealed after the election?

Even if he thought that he was going to lose his seat (a possibility, but no racing certainty), I doubt he'd have stood down for that reason. Maybe he couldn't face the idea of potentially working in a Corbyn Govt (after all, he must know that Corbyn will probably be gone if Labour lose the election) or maybe there's some other reason? Would be nice to think that he felt guilty about the Beech business and went for that reason, but if so he surely wouldn't have brazened it out when Beech was exposed.

[HappyHamza]

12 minutes ago, Strokes said:

I’m not interested in any other policy until the withdrawal from the European Union has been sorted.

Its not like manifesto’s are worth the paper they are written on in any case.

Is there a particular policy you would like to discuss? 

Environmental policies, transport policies, education policies, health policies, social care policies. 

 

We all know where they stand on brexit but this is for the next five years. 

[Jon the Hat]

20 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

It's always the people that decry the politics of personality the loudest that do nothing but attack the man target than the ball. 

 

Let's see some tory supporters discuss policy for a change.

Good plan.

labour tax proposals are likely to reduce the overall tax income to the treasury.

Unfunded nationalisation plans will put massive debt burden on the state with no discernible benefit.

Over half of British Jews fear a Corbyn government

Labours Brexit policy is clearly designed to frustrate Brexit entirely.

 

 

[Jon the Hat]

1 minute ago, HappyHamza said:

Environmental policies, transport policies, education policies, health policies, social care policies. 

 

We all know where they stand on brexit but this is for the next five years. 

How about housing?  The shadow chancellor wants to give discounted right to buy to private tenants!!

[HappyHamza]

16 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Good plan.

labour tax proposals are likely to reduce the overall tax income to the treasury.

Unfunded nationalisation plans will put massive debt burden on the state with no discernible benefit.

Over half of British Jews fear a Corbyn government

Labours Brexit policy is clearly designed to frustrate Brexit entirely.

 

 

 

15 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

How about housing?  The shadow chancellor wants to give discounted right to buy to private tenants!!

 Thanks for engaging.

I kinda hoped that we might find a tory that wanted to talk about tory policies but at least you've taken the first step towards policy debate I suppose.

We can't debate five policies at once so which unfounded claim shall we start with?

[Guest MattP]

Apologies @Alf Bentley it was Leon Britton, not Proctor.

 

I actually watched the speech again on YouTube the other day, it was really hard to get through knowing now what we do - he didn't seem to care and the fact it came just before his run for deputy leader showed how callous imo he was. Was Lord Bramall the other one he smeared? 

 

If there was any justice in the world he'd be in court now, why he was so highly rated I still have no idea. Cheerleader for the Iraq war, wanted to overturn the referendum result, campaigned against press freedom (including that donation from Max Mosley) and then his stint as the noncefinder general.

 

 

He seemed to be on the wrong side of history on everything. 

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Good plan.

labour tax proposals are likely to reduce the overall tax income to the treasury.

Unfunded nationalisation plans will put massive debt burden on the state with no discernible benefit.

Over half of British Jews fear a Corbyn government

Labours Brexit policy is clearly designed to frustrate Brexit entirely.

I imagine you have a lot more assets than me so it's easy for me to say but I'm actually not even bothered about the economics anymore. And I know I should be.

 

We are talking about a potential PM here who has stood on a stage and described NATO as an organisation created to start a cold war with the Soviets, will oversee a defence strategy he sees as provocative and will have advisors that can't even be cleared by the security services for confidential information. 

 

That's the real scary part in of all this.  

[WigstonWanderer]

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

How about housing?  The shadow chancellor wants to give discounted right to buy to private tenants!!

This is the sort of thing that worries me. Hundreds of thousands of Granma & Grandad ordinary people salting away a little to help support them in their old age (including me). Such policies would mean a collapse of the private housing market and likely make housing issues worse. 

[Guest MattP]

Ian Austin stepping down and urging people to vote Conservative. 

 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-former-labour-minister-urges-party-supporters-to-lend-the-tories-our-votes-11856077

 

Austin, a former Gordon Brown aide and Labour minister who quit the party this year, has urged Labour supporters to "lend the Tories our votes" in next month's general election.

In his latest furious attack on Jeremy Corbyn, he says the Labour leader is unfit to lead the country, cannot be trusted with defence and security and always seems to back the UK's enemies.

 

"The Labour Party has been my life and until this year, I have only ever voted Labour," Mr Austin, who held Dudley North by just 22 votes in the 2017 general election, writes in his local paper.

"But it has really come to something when someone like me says traditional decent patriotic Labour voters should vote for Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party this time."

[The Guvnor]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Ian Austin stepping down and urging people to vote Conservative. 

 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-former-labour-minister-urges-party-supporters-to-lend-the-tories-our-votes-11856077

 

Austin, a former Gordon Brown aide and Labour minister who quit the party this year, has urged Labour supporters to "lend the Tories our votes" in next month's general election.

In his latest furious attack on Jeremy Corbyn, he says the Labour leader is unfit to lead the country, cannot be trusted with defence and security and always seems to back the UK's enemies.

 

"The Labour Party has been my life and until this year, I have only ever voted Labour," Mr Austin, who held Dudley North by just 22 votes in the 2017 general election, writes in his local paper.

"But it has really come to something when someone like me says traditional decent patriotic Labour voters should vote for Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party this time."

A very damaging indictment indeed, and a very brave act to make it public.

[Guest MattP]

@Voll Blau Williamson standing.

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

Boris' big lies and half-lies that need to be exposed.....

 

Big Lies

 

"We didn't want an election": Boris repeatedly tabled motions calling for an election. He repeatedly baited Corbyn for supposedly chickening out and not agreeing to an election. The Tories were well ahead in the polls, giving him the option to get a 5-year majority to govern as he likes, rather than risking loss of power or having to compromise. Of course he wanted an election! 

 

"The dysfunctional parliament forced us to have an election": There had certainly been a long impasse, but that was not just down to a "Remainer parliament". The Opposition sought compromise at least as much as the Govt ("indicative votes", negotiations). May sought only unity among her own MPs & the DUP - and still couldn't command a majority. Late on, she engaged in negotiations with the Opposition, but could not compromise without dividing her own party. Boris then ditched the DUP and sought Tory unity with the ERG plus a few Labour Leave MPs.....and provisionally succeeded! Parliament approved his deal, in principle, by 30 votes.....and his response was to withdraw it in case he had to compromise on any of the terms. Maybe he'd have had to compromise a little or a lot or not at all, but he chose not to give it a chance.....his preference was to gamble Brexit on an election, hoping that it would give him an absolute majority to Brexit without compromise - and to govern for 5 years without compromise.

 

Half-Lies

 

"We'll get Brexit done quickly": Brexit will take years to sort out, whoever is in Govt. True, with a majority, Boris could pass his Withdrawal Agreement / Deal in January, so we'd be out of the EU....though under EU terms (except having no say) for the transition period. But our future relationship & any trade agreement will all still be to negotiated. Broadly, these are the potential outcomes:

- No Deal in Dec. 2020: Exit transition period with no agreed EU-UK relationship or trade agreement, potentially causing massive chaos & huge economic damage (preferred option of ERG - & Farage, if Boris' deal passes).

- Minimal trade/relationship deal by Dec. 2020: Boris wants the UK to compete globally by cutting employment/environmental standards (or why did he have those items moved from the binding WA to the non-binding Political Declaration?). If he follows that path, the EU will protect itself against undercutting by a deregulated UK by agreeing only a minimal trade agreement, if any.....not quite as damaging as No Deal, but still very damaging (preferred option of most Tories now moderates have gone).

- Fuller future deal/extend transition period: If the Govt wants a fuller future relationship/trade deal with the EU, it will almost certainly take several years of negotiations & force the Govt to extend the transition period, staying under EU terms for years.

 

"Brexit will take ages under Labour": True, it would take longer to negotiate the WA (though Corbyn's "6 months" promise is feasible for that, as Labour's disagreements are mainly over the future relationship, not divorce bill, EU/UK citizens' rights etc.). As with the Tories, it would take Labour longer than 6 months to negotiate a future relationship/trade agreement (half-lie by Labour, too, there)....but there's every reason to think that Labour could negotiate the future relationship quicker than the Tories could, unless Corbyn made stupid demands on Govt. economic intervention. After all, Labour has no intentions of deregulating on employment rights or environmental protection or seeking to use such deregulation to undercut EU standards/prices, as the Tories do.

 

 

 

[Nick]

I think they’ll be a lot of people who don’t feel able to vote for Boris or Corbyn. And despite the Swinson vote being arguably undemocratic in their Brexit reversal stance I can see both Labour and Tory remainers going Lib Dem in their droves.

 

I'm unsure there will be a Tory majority but they’ll get the most votes, though I can see the Lib Dem’s and the SNP dramatically increasing their MP seats...

 

I’m honestly yet to work out if Jeremy Corbyn will see any sort of youth vote support - I also suspect that many labour voters just won’t turn out but his support is a bit of an enigma and has surprised before.

[Nick]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

Boris' big lies and half-lies that need to be exposed.....

 

Big Lies

 

"We didn't want an election": Boris repeatedly tabled motions calling for an election. He repeatedly baited Corbyn for supposedly chickening out and not agreeing to an election. The Tories were well ahead in the polls, giving him the option to get a 5-year majority to govern as he likes, rather than risking loss of power or having to compromise. Of course he wanted an election! 

 

"The dysfunctional parliament forced us to have an election": There had certainly been a long impasse, but that was not just down to a "Remainer parliament". The Opposition sought compromise at least as much as the Govt ("indicative votes", negotiations). May sought only unity among her own MPs & the DUP - and still couldn't command a majority. Late on, she engaged in negotiations with the Opposition, but could not compromise without dividing her own party. Boris then ditched the DUP and sought Tory unity with the ERG plus a few Labour Leave MPs.....and provisionally succeeded! Parliament approved his deal, in principle, by 30 votes.....and his response was to withdraw it in case he had to compromise on any of the terms. Maybe he'd have had to compromise a little or a lot or not at all, but he chose not to give it a chance.....his preference was to gamble Brexit on an election, hoping that it would give him an absolute majority to Brexit without compromise - and to govern for 5 years without compromise.

 

Half-Lies

 

"We'll get Brexit done quickly": Brexit will take years to sort out, whoever is in Govt. True, with a majority, Boris could pass his Withdrawal Agreement / Deal in January, so we'd be out of the EU....though under EU terms (except having no say) for the transition period. But our future relationship & any trade agreement will all still be to negotiated. Broadly, these are the potential outcomes:

- No Deal in Dec. 2020: Exit transition period with no agreed EU-UK relationship or trade agreement, potentially causing massive chaos & huge economic damage (preferred option of ERG - & Farage, if Boris' deal passes).

- Minimal trade/relationship deal by Dec. 2020: Boris wants the UK to compete globally by cutting employment/environmental standards (or why did he have those items moved from the binding WA to the non-binding Political Declaration?). If he follows that path, the EU will protect itself against undercutting by a deregulated UK by agreeing only a minimal trade agreement, if any.....not quite as damaging as No Deal, but still very damaging (preferred option of most Tories now moderates have gone).

- Fuller future deal/extend transition period: If the Govt wants a fuller future relationship/trade deal with the EU, it will almost certainly take several years of negotiations & force the Govt to extend the transition period, staying under EU terms for years.

 

"Brexit will take ages under Labour": True, it would take longer to negotiate the WA (though Corbyn's "6 months" promise is feasible for that, as Labour's disagreements are mainly over the future relationship, not divorce bill, EU/UK citizens' rights etc.). As with the Tories, it would take Labour longer than 6 months to negotiate a future relationship/trade agreement (half-lie by Labour, too, there)....but there's every reason to think that Labour could negotiate the future relationship quicker than the Tories could, unless Corbyn made stupid demands on Govt. economic intervention. After all, Labour has no intentions of deregulating on employment rights or environmental protection or seeking to use such deregulation to undercut EU standards/prices, as the Tories do.

 

 

 

I saw a version of this in the Times this morning where they scored him out of 5 on the basis of truthfulness in regard to each of his manifesto promises!

[Alf Bentley]

13 minutes ago, MattP said:

Ian Austin stepping down and urging people to vote Conservative. 

 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-former-labour-minister-urges-party-supporters-to-lend-the-tories-our-votes-11856077

 

Austin, a former Gordon Brown aide and Labour minister who quit the party this year, has urged Labour supporters to "lend the Tories our votes" in next month's general election.

 

 

Blimey. A bloke who quit Labour to become independent is slagging off Labour? 

 

Next thing you'll be telling me that Grieve & Soubry are slagging the Tories - or that Sarah Wollaston & Sam Gyimah (& Umunna, Berger) are calling for people to vote Lib Dem!! 

 

1 minute ago, MattP said:

@Voll Blau Williamson standing.

 

 

 

What a massively egotistical tosser!

 

Derby North is a Tory gain, then..... 

[Guest MattP]

This might have had some influence on Tom Watson. To say it would have been uncomfortable is an understatement.

-------

Tom Watson, the incumbent MP and deputy leader of the Labour Party, announced on 6 November 2019 that he was not standing for re-election. Ex-MP Harvey Proctor had initially announced his intention to challenge Watson for the seat, but upon Watson's decision on 6th November, he announced he would not be running.

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

Blimey. A bloke who quit Labour to become independent is slagging off Labour? 

 

Next thing you'll be telling me that Grieve & Soubry are slagging the Tories - or that Sarah Wollaston & Sam Gyimah (& Umunna, Berger) are calling for people to vote Lib Dem!! 

It's a pretty big thing for someone who was a sitting Labour MP a few months ago to ask his own voters to back Boris Johnson and the Conservatives in an act of patriotism. 

 

Have any of those you mention gone on record and asked people to vote for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour to stop Boris Johnson as he isn't fit to be Prime Minister - they haven't. 

 

That's the equivalence. 

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

I think they’ll be a lot of people who don’t feel able to vote for Boris or Corbyn. And despite the Swinson vote being arguably undemocratic in their Brexit reversal stance I can see both Labour and Tory remainers going Lib Dem in their droves.

 

I'm unsure there will be a Tory majority but they’ll get the most votes, though I can see the Lib Dem’s and the SNP dramatically increasing their MP seats...

 

I’m honestly yet to work out if Jeremy Corbyn will see any sort of youth vote support - I also suspect that many labour voters just won’t turn out but his support is a bit of an enigma and has surprised before.

 

I'm sure there'll be a surge in Lib Dem support, how much, I don't know. If it's a big surge with little tactical voting, that pretty much guarantees a Tory majority, if not landslide - and therefore a very Hard Brexit or No Deal & 5 years unfettered power for Boris to deregulate the UK along US lines (after a year of public spending handouts & economic recovery, probably).

 

Have a look at this list of Lib Dem target seats: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

- To gain more than 20 seats, the Lib Dems would have to be overturning majorities of 12,000-15,000 (& Scottish seats are unlikely)

- Meanwhile, even a small shift of Remainer votes from Labour to Lib Dem will hand many Lab Remain seats in London/South/university towns to the Tories

(see vulnerable Lab seats: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/labour#UKParliament......Kensington, Canterbury, Warwick, Lincoln, Battersea, High Peak, Portsmouth etc.)

 

The only way the Lib Dems dramatically increase their seats is (a) a national swing much bigger than polls suggest - 25%+ of vote?; (b) Tactical voting on an industrial scale, so that Lib Dems take lots of Tory seats but don't hand Lab seats to Tories.

 

 

I expect Corbyn will get some youth vote support, but a lot less than last time. I'm sure part of the Left/Remain youth vote will swing behind the Lib Dems or Greens.

 

I'm sure you're right about some Lab voters staying at home - though I can imagine many Tory voters doing that, too (Tory Remainers who can't face defecting or those alienated by Boris, Rees-Mogg & co).

Particularly in December, probably after a horrible, dishonest, confusing campaign, I reckon there might be a very low turnout. Hope I'm wrong about that.  

[Alf Bentley]

13 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's a pretty big thing for someone who was a sitting Labour MP a few months ago to ask his own voters to back Boris Johnson and the Conservatives in an act of patriotism. 

 

Have any of those you mention gone on record and asked people to vote for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour to stop Boris Johnson as he isn't fit to be Prime Minister - they haven't. 

 

That's the equivalence. 

 

Fair point. There's no full equivalent, as far as I'm aware. He's probably expressed more hostility than any other defector from either party.

 

But there are several who were sitting Tory MPs a few months ago, who are now asking their own voters to back Swinson & her Revoke Brexit policy and who have made disobliging comments about Boris.

[Jon the Hat]

7 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Fair point. There's no full equivalent, as far as I'm aware. He's probably expressed more hostility than any other defector from either party.

 

But there are several who were sitting Tory MPs a few months ago, who are now asking their own voters to back Swinson & her Revoke Brexit policy and who have made disobliging comments about Boris.

They are about Brexit though - this guy is calling out Corbyn and his cronies as actually dangerous - and they are.  They want to take us down the road to Socialist ruin and they don't care who suffers.  (Hint - literally everyone).  

 

I understand people not liking the Tories, but I cannot for the life of me understand why centrists in Labour would support Corbyn.  I couldn't support the conservatives with an extreme right wing leader in a million years.  Rees-Mogg wouldn't get my vote - his views belong in the 1920s.  Corbyn's belong in the bin.