FT General Election Poll 2019

[Lionator]

Rees-Mogg and Bridgen. Bin.

[jammie82uk]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

If it's close on here I'd say it's good for the Tories.

 

A website will be over proportionally represented by younger people.

Agreed, I’ve Just had a quick search on here but couldn’t see anything, wasn’t there a vote on a thread that indicated in the original referendum remain would win with a healthy majority 

[Stoopid]

30 minutes ago, purpleronnie said:

Agreed, I'd expect most old fogies will vote Tory.  I'd be surprised if they aren't 10pts clear .

Hang on mate - I'm bloody ancient, and I make Joe Stalin look like Michael Gove!

[Mike Oxlong]

. 

[Mike Oxlong]

59 minutes ago, MattP said:

If it's close on here I'd say it's good for the Tories.

 

A website will be over proportionally represented by younger people.

 

Not the ones in Wayne Rooney’s search history. 

[Legend_in_blue]

45 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Rees-Mogg and Bridgen. Bin.

I just watched the tail end of an interview on the BBC with Bridgen.  When he ended by mentioning the need to have well educated people running the country - the fact that this came personally from him made me

 

[HappyHamza]

2 hours ago, String fellow said:

If Labour wants to provide free prescriptions, free social care, free university tuition etc. by taking the wealth off the top 5% of earners, how soon will the money run out, especially if that 5% decide to move their wealth elsewhere? Also, their idea of a 4-day working week sounds great, but would it really work if pay levels are kept the same for 8 hours less work per week? Wouldn't that cause 20% inflation overnight? Their economic policies would be a disaster, as they were in the past. For example, the coffers were empty when they last left office. As regards anti-Americanism, Corbyn frequently expresses it, but that's not surprising when you remember where his true allegiances lie - with Moscow, not Washington. If it's a choice between the 'nothingness' of economic stability or the 'definite ideology' of a hard-left administration, I know which I'd prefer.  

Three things here:

 

1. The coffers weren't empty when they left power in 2008. That's not how the economy works.  There was a large deficit caused by tax revenues dropping like a stone, particularly from the financial services sector, during the GLOBAL financial crisis.  They had the economy growing again and what should have happened - continued spending during the downturn - was undone by the Tories leading to a decade of stagnation and average wages STILL below what they were pre-crisis. 

 

2- Taxation. A key purpose is to determine the amount of money flowing in the economy and where that money sits. Over the last ten years  - even with things like the increased starting point for tax taken into account - the poor have been hit disproportionately hard by changes to various policies.  The rich have made money whilst the poor have lost out. Why would anybody not want to introduce some balance? In the 1970s the bottom 75% owned something like 70% of the nation's wealth. Now the top 10% own over 70% of the nation's wealth. 

 

3- the working week. The idea is that productivity over 4 days is greater than productivity over 5 due to a better refreshed and focused workforce.  There is some evidence to support this, which is why it's a thing.  So no, it wouldn't theoretically cause inflation. I very much doubt that labour area about to require a 4 day week though.  They might try to promote the idea. 

 

I toyed with having a 4 to deal with the strange comment about Russia but decided I'd just ignore that bit as a bit strange. 

[RobHawk]

10 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

You would put Corbyn in number 10 despite knowing he and his cabal don’t represent traditional Labour values at all?

If it keeps Boris out of number 10, I could do that 100% yeah. 

 

[Tuna]

 

[ousefox]

The more I see of Swinson, the worse I think she is. What an absolute shower of shite we have leading our main parties. 

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

If it's close on here I'd say it's good for the Tories.

 

A website will be over proportionally represented by younger people.

 

As I recall, Labour were ahead in the 2017 FT poll, but not by a massive margin. There was definitely one previous FT general election poll that had the Tories ahead - possibly in 2010? 

 

The Lib Dems are a good bit higher than in previous FT polls, I think?

 

All very unscientific and changeable, of course, but I've been surprised before at how FT polls were fairly close to election outcomes, allowing for skewed age sample etc.

 

I'm sure you're right that the FT "sample" is disproportionately young compared to the general population. It will also be disproportionately male - and skewed to the East Midlands, I presume.

While the youth bias probably tilts the sample towards the Left/Remain side, the male bias probably tilts it in the opposite direction.

Most polls now show a big disparity between men and women: men are much more likely to be Tory-voting Brexiteers and women Lab/LD-voting Remainers. 

 

Not sure what any East Midlands bias would do to the sample, seeing as Leicester is strongly Labour, but the county strongly Tory....

[Charl91]

3 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

I just watched the tail end of an interview on the BBC with Bridgen.  When he ended by mentioning the need to have well educated people running the country - the fact that this came personally from him made me

 

Didn't make me laugh - he's my MP    

[Guest MattP]

Two years saying the Tories couldn't run another campaign as bad as the one May ran.

 

Looks like they are determined to give it a good go though.

[Voll Blau]

10 hours ago, Tuna said:

 

 

[Jimothy]

48 minutes ago, MattP said:

Two years saying the Tories couldn't run another campaign as bad as the one May ran.

 

Looks like they are determined to give it a good go though.

Can only get better I guess 

 

EDIT: just realised that was Blair's Labours campaign song 

[Jon the Hat]

11 hours ago, RobHawk said:

If it keeps Boris out of number 10, I could do that 100% yeah. 

 

Boris is already in number 10, and coming up with some pretty sensible policies in the main.  

[Jon the Hat]

14 hours ago, Stoopid said:

The only point I was trying to make about socialism being a vote-winner was in the immediate post-war election, when of course it was. The economic weather was  tough and Labour lasted one term. 

But the NHS, free education and improvement in housing and working conditions were lasting achievements that it's hard to imagine the Tories introducing.

As for the 60s & 70s (Labour's heyday, as you say, apart of course from Heath's 3-day week etc).,  it's often cited as a period of economic & social unrest. Maybe, but It didn't have the homelessness, food banks and massive income disparity that are so evident now.

Brexit probably will have its say in this election, though I must admit I find the whole subject so overwhelmingly dull that I can't even be arsed to think about it...

I don't understand why people get upset about income disparity.  The mega rich have **** all influence on the rest of us, and there have always been the mega rich.  As long as they pay a decent chunk of tax, or employ people who do, who cares?  The more important point is that we are all wealthier.  The politics of envy are as stupid and pointless as the listening to those who blame everything on immigration.

[Guest MattP]

For the first time I'm genuinely worried. This has all the hallmarks of the campaign two years ago already. 

 

It hit home speaking to a old mate over the weekend (Jewish) I mean he is actually claiming he's going if Corbyn becomes PM - how have we got to that point as a country? I never thought this could happen here.

 

At least I'll be prepared for the worst this time anyway and I've got far less to lose in terms of business than I did a couple of years ago.

[StanSP]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

For the first time I'm genuinely worried. This has all the hallmarks of the campaign two years ago already. 

 

It hit home speaking to a old mate over the weekend (Jewish) I mean he is actually claiming he's going if Corbyn becomes PM - how have we got to that point as a country? I never thought this could happen here.

 

At least I'll be prepared for the worst this time anyway and I've got far less to lose in terms of business than I did a couple of years ago.

You think it's only just got bad in politics because Corbyn might get voted in? Come on, Matt, we know you know better than that. 

 

It's been a shit storm for ages. It really shouldn't be just hitting home now given how divisive and toxic politics has become over the last few years. Social media is to blame for a lot of it but so are the politicians on all sides who can't stop spouting shite any given day. 

[Guest MattP]

5 minutes ago, StanSP said:

You think it's only just got bad in politics because Corbyn might get voted in? Come on, Matt, we know you know better than that. 

 

It's been a shit storm for ages. It really shouldn't be just hitting home now given how divisive and toxic politics has become over the last few years. Social media is to blame for a lot of it but so are the politicians on all sides who can't stop spouting shite any given day. 

When nearly half of an ethnic group consider leaving the country they were born in because of the leader I think we have gone past the point of politics being toxic - https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/98016/forty-cent-jews-would-seriously

 

And why wouldn't they when they see a potential PM who has entertained holocaust deniers, overseen Jews be purged from his party and openly mixed with as many open antisemites as he has?

 

This really is a completely different time to anything we have seen.

[Guest MattP]

James Cleverly now doing a runner from the TV studios, being empty chaired by Kay Burley.

 

What a complete disaster this is, Rees-Mogg and Bridgen need locking up until Christmas. 

[David Guiza]

Boris whipping out the Stalin statements. For those of you playing Tory campaign bingo, you can tick that one off your cards.

 

Almost an identical quote to one he used against Gordon Brown in 2009 too, good to see him get on board with the environmental concerns by recycling lines. 

[Stoopid]

16 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

I don't understand why people get upset about income disparity.  The mega rich have **** all influence on the rest of us, and there have always been the mega rich.  As long as they pay a decent chunk of tax, or employ people who do, who cares?  The more important point is that we are all wealthier.  The politics of envy are as stupid and pointless as the listening to those who blame everything on immigration.

Couple of things there. First, you say the mega-rich have no influence on the rest of us. Well, apart from funding the Conservative Party -in fact all parties on the Right - and forming the vast majority of the Cabinet, not to mention the Press you may have a point.

And 'as long as they pay a decent chunk of tax'...come on, mate. The examples of the rich avoiding tax are so egregious and widespread it would be tedious to even begin on that well-worn path.And 'we're all wealthier' Are we? The news that came out yesterday about the unprecedented use of food banks would suggest otherwise.

'The politics of envy' - a stick used to beat the left since the heady days of Victorian paternalism, and as meaningless then as it is now. Envy has nothing to do with it...I don't want to be rich - and I certainly don't want to be like the rich! I'd just like to see a society where money is used as an instrument to unite society rather than divide it.

There is more than enough money and wit in this country to provide a society where decent housing, education and employment are available for all of  its citizens. But as long as we run the place on the Daddy knows best lines implicit in laissez-faire Toryism we'll get nowhere.

 

[Guest MattP]

6 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

Boris whipping out the Stalin statements. For those of you playing Tory campaign bingo, you can tick that one off your cards.

 

Almost an identical quote to one he used against Gordon Brown in 2009 too, good to see him get on board with the environmental concerns by recycling lines. 

Completely insane tactically as well.

 

Whole campaign is based on needing Labour voters outside posh and middle class areas switching to the Tories? Yeah let's start the campaign on the front of the Daily Telegraph with a headline saying defend the wealthy. 

 

Great ****ing idea.

[FerrisBueller]

Call me a cynic, but I can't help but feel that all the JRM shite the last couple of days is a distraction technique to reflect from the fact that the PM is refusing to release a massive report on Russian interference.

He's got something to hide and it couldn't be more obvious.