FT General Election Poll 2019

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

@Voll Blau Williamson standing.

 

 

To quote In The Loop: "Well, that's that then."

[twoleftfeet]

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50325059

Labours plan to shift power to the north, no problems with that when not move parliament and turn Westminster in to a tourist attraction and get rid of the need for mps expenses by forcing them to stay in  Travelodge style accommodation in a lovely new state of the art fit for purpose building. They could at the same time scrap some of the pointless traditions like dragging the new speaker to the chair if he didn't want the job why did he apply for it. My big problem is what ever they relocate to where ever, they still wont be in touch with the great unwashed masses. I love the way they think London is the southeast  dover to London 1hr 4 minutes Coventry to London 59 minutes. no one considers London to be the midlands

[Christoph]

Sums up Labour and Conservatives at the moment. 

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

20 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

They are about Brexit though - this guy is calling out Corbyn and his cronies as actually dangerous - and they are.  They want to take us down the road to Socialist ruin and they don't care who suffers.  (Hint - literally everyone).  

 

I understand people not liking the Tories, but I cannot for the life of me understand why centrists in Labour would support Corbyn.  I couldn't support the conservatives with an extreme right wing leader in a million years.  Rees-Mogg wouldn't get my vote - his views belong in the 1920s.  Corbyn's belong in the bin.

 

You'll be astonished to hear that I don't share your expectations of "socialist ruin" and suffering for everyone under a Labour Govt, Jon. 

 

I'd self-define as Soft Left rather than Centrist, but am not a Corbyn fan. As a Labour member, I voted for Owen Smith to replace him in 2016 - and would support any reasonable alternative candidate given the chance.

 

I'd see the prospect of Boris Johnson winning a majority as much more dangerous to this country than a Corbyn govt - not least as there's almost zero chance of Corbyn winning a majority, meaning that if he does end up as PM he'll be dependent on support from other parties, not to mention the large number of moderates on his own benches (the Tories have been more effective than Corbyn at driving out their moderate MPs).

 

Possibly after a brief increase in public spending & brief economic upturn after Brexit uncertainty ends temporarily, I'd expect a Boris majority govt to pursue a very Hard Brexit (possibly even No Deal), entailing a distant relationship with our main neighbours and major damage to our trade and economy. This, in turn, would greatly reduce tax revenues & severely limit the govt's ability to improve public services in the medium/long-term, even if Boris sincerely wanted to do that and was not currently offering pots of money as a cynical electoral ploy. To secure trade deals with more powerful global trading nations like the USA, we would have to make major concessions on standards, regulations & market access. To compete successfully in the EU market from a comparatively isolated post-Brexit situation, I see no short/medium-term economic alternative to the UK competing by cutting regulations, standards and labour costs - at the expense of working people, social problems & the environment. That's quite apart from such policy being the ideological preference of an increasing proportion of Tory MPs (ERG etc.). Thus, I see Boris as the most dangerous potential PM ever presented to the electorate - with the exception of Oswald Mosley.  

 

Some of Labour's social and investment plans sound really good to me. I appreciate that some of the spending sounds eye-wateringly high. But some of that is spending over a decade or more - and I'm confident that some of it would never happen, once a Corbyn Govt came face to face with political/economic reality, not least given its dependence on the support of Labour moderates & probably MPs from other parties. I don't deny that there are other issues (e.g. inadequate response to anti-semitism) and that I have a low opinion of Corbyn as a leader. But I'm optimistic that some of those around him are of a high calibre and will make sure that problems are dealt with much better.

 

 

Re. your earlier post: you criticised Labour plans to give private tenants a discounted right to buy their homes. Is it also wrong to offer council tenants a discounted right to buy? Because that, of course, has been a cornerstone Tory policy since Thatcher.

Indeed, Tory govts went further and centralised power so as to prevent councils even using the funds from discounted sales to invest in new housing stock.....part of the reason we now have a massive housing shortage. Many of the council houses sold at discount rates by Tory Govts have ended up in the possession of buy-to-let landlords who make a good living charging high rents to tenants who cannot afford to buy a home at prices partly inflated by this sell-off....so there's a certain justice if such tenants, who've paid through the noses, get a discount at the expense of wealthy landlords.

 

Or is it only wrong to sell off private property at a discount, but OK to offer discount deals on publicly-owned property?

[Nick]

2 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Thus, I see Boris as the most dangerous potential PM ever presented to the electorate - with the exception of Oswald Mosley.  

Couldn’t agree more, yet some Conservatives don’t see him as hard right? How is that?

[RoboFox]

1 minute ago, Swan Lesta said:

Couldn’t agree more, yet some Conservatives don’t see him as hard right? How is that?

On Peston last night, Jeremy Hunt with as serious a face as he can physically muster, referred to BoJo as "continuity Cameron", and "as centrist a Conservative PM as we've had" 

 

I almost drowned in my cocoa. 

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Swan Lesta said:

Couldn’t agree more, yet some Conservatives don’t see him as hard right? How is that?

Probably because he was one of first Tories to vote for gay marriage and gay adoption, in addition to that he's pro migration, was a popular mayor of the most multicultural city in the World and had even gone as far in the past as to suggest amnesties for illegal immigrants. 

 

They aren't generally traits of the hard right. 

 

To quote Peter Hitchins "The strangest thing about the Boris phenomenon is the people who adore him should hate him and the people who hate him should adore him".

 

But it basically boils down to people like me needing him because he's now the only hope of Brexit, and I have to ignore all his liberal nonsense in the past whilst he passes for a Tory leader - for his opponents, they need to portray him as a vicious right winger as they need an excuse to vote Labour when they know deep down its inexcusable to make a man like Corbyn PM.

 

It's a farcical situation. 

[Alf Bentley]

1 minute ago, Swan Lesta said:

Couldn’t agree more, yet some Conservatives don’t see him as hard right? How is that?

 

The distraction of his jovial / "cuddly" / "charismatic" persona?

 

Inadequate consideration of what can realistically happen with the UK-EU future relationship, once the WA/divorce is done?

 

Inadequate consideration of what the UK's options will be as a comparatively isolated nation in a brutal world of big powers and big blocs?

 

Inadequate publicity for the simple fact that, under Boris' deal, various protections of standards were deliberately moved from the binding WA to the non-binding Political Declaration?.....Strong fvcking clue there!!

 

I also recall a particularly hardline ERG type explaining that he'd fall in line with Boris' Deal as Boris had assured him that No Deal in 2020 would still be a definite option.....indeed, it will happen unless we apply to extend the transition period by June, I think? Admittedly, Johnson is proven to be a habitual liar, so his word given to anyone cannot be taken at face value.....but he leads a parliamentary party, cabinet and party membership that is increasingly right-wing after a massive influx of former UKIP members.

 

[bovril]

The Jewish community obviously feel very strongly about Corbyn as PM. At the same time, the Conservative party seem determined to burn all bridges with our European allies and threaten stability in the UK. Swinson is a narcissist and not particularly liberal, though arguably not as dangerous as the other two. 

Depressing as fvck. Almost glad I live in a very safe Tory constituency so I don't have any difficult decisions to make. 

[Nick]

It’s funny that in traditional tory/labour voters there seems an acknowledgment that neither leader is a preferred option but an absolute abhorrence at the alternative so are deciding to vote traditionally anyway.

 

There will be zero chance persuading me that Boris will do less damage to this country than Corbyn, I like neither of them but find a Boris Premiership abhorrent.

 

And obviously there are many Tory voters feel the same in reverse.

 

I’m undecided who to vote for. My district is Heaton Harris territory and last vote I think 2017 was 33k Tory 13K Labour and 4K Lib Dem...

 

I barely see the point without PR or AV being imposed. 
 

[Alf Bentley]

@bovril @Swan Lesta

 

Sounds as if, like most voters, you already know who will be elected in your constituency - and that your vote is almost meaningless.

Same here, except mine is a Labour "safe seat" - 26,000 majority in 2017.

 

That cannot be a healthy situation for any democracy - where most people's votes are near-meaningless, while the votes of a minority of swing voters in marginal seats are all-important to the parties.

 

Maybe one of the positives that would result from another hung parliament - amid much chaos - would be a move to electoral reform.

If Swinson ends up as powerbroker in a hung parliament, I hope she'd make that her key demand.

 

I just checked and Corbyn seems to be on the fence with this (): supports a constitutional convention to consider wider democratic reform, but favours keeping a direct constituency link (which STV and AV would do).

But I know that a fair number in Labour, including McDonnell, support reform. Maybe the Tories would offer an exchange: Brexit for PR? There's a dilemma....  If SNP were powerbrokers, I presume they'd prioritise IndyRef2.

[twoleftfeet]

25 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

It’s funny that in traditional tory/labour voters there seems an acknowledgment that neither leader is a preferred option but an absolute abhorrence at the alternative so are deciding to vote traditionally anyway.

 

There will be zero chance persuading me that Boris will do less damage to this country than Corbyn, I like neither of them but find a Boris Premiership abhorrent.

 

And obviously there are many Tory voters feel the same in reverse.

 

I’m undecided who to vote for. My district is Heaton Harris territory and last vote I think 2017 was 33k Tory 13K Labour and 4K Lib Dem...

 

I barely see the point without PR or AV being imposed. 
 

PR -who do you go to when you have a local issue as currently the local MP is supposed to represent the locals (hasn't happened with Brexit ).

AV - bit more difficult perhaps several votes over a couple of days to whittle it down to two candidates to give a binary vote could work and new tech could make results pretty instant do away with the hours of counting bits of paper (although would take away my ability to draw Soyuncu's massive cock on the ballot form.) but may lead to boredom in the electorate.

Would like to current system kept but the Lords turned into a second chamber based on PR with the  ability to block legislation even if it is in the winning parties manifesto.

I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE END OF FEAR POLITICS stop telling me why not to elect the opposition and why I should elect you.

Edited 7 November 2019 by twoleftfeet

[Jon the Hat]

47 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

You'll be astonished to hear that I don't share your expectations of "socialist ruin" and suffering for everyone under a Labour Govt, Jon. 

 

I'd self-define as Soft Left rather than Centrist, but am not a Corbyn fan. As a Labour member, I voted for Owen Smith to replace him in 2016 - and would support any reasonable alternative candidate given the chance.

 

I'd see the prospect of Boris Johnson winning a majority as much more dangerous to this country than a Corbyn govt - not least as there's almost zero chance of Corbyn winning a majority, meaning that if he does end up as PM he'll be dependent on support from other parties, not to mention the large number of moderates on his own benches (the Tories have been more effective than Corbyn at driving out their moderate MPs).

 

Possibly after a brief increase in public spending & brief economic upturn after Brexit uncertainty ends temporarily, I'd expect a Boris majority govt to pursue a very Hard Brexit (possibly even No Deal), entailing a distant relationship with our main neighbours and major damage to our trade and economy. This, in turn, would greatly reduce tax revenues & severely limit the govt's ability to improve public services in the medium/long-term, even if Boris sincerely wanted to do that and was not currently offering pots of money as a cynical electoral ploy. To secure trade deals with more powerful global trading nations like the USA, we would have to make major concessions on standards, regulations & market access. To compete successfully in the EU market from a comparatively isolated post-Brexit situation, I see no short/medium-term economic alternative to the UK competing by cutting regulations, standards and labour costs - at the expense of working people, social problems & the environment. That's quite apart from such policy being the ideological preference of an increasing proportion of Tory MPs (ERG etc.). Thus, I see Boris as the most dangerous potential PM ever presented to the electorate - with the exception of Oswald Mosley.  

 

Some of Labour's social and investment plans sound really good to me. I appreciate that some of the spending sounds eye-wateringly high. But some of that is spending over a decade or more - and I'm confident that some of it would never happen, once a Corbyn Govt came face to face with political/economic reality, not least given its dependence on the support of Labour moderates & probably MPs from other parties. I don't deny that there are other issues (e.g. inadequate response to anti-semitism) and that I have a low opinion of Corbyn as a leader. But I'm optimistic that some of those around him are of a high calibre and will make sure that problems are dealt with much better.

 

 

Re. your earlier post: you criticised Labour plans to give private tenants a discounted right to buy their homes. Is it also wrong to offer council tenants a discounted right to buy? Because that, of course, has been a cornerstone Tory policy since Thatcher.

Indeed, Tory govts went further and centralised power so as to prevent councils even using the funds from discounted sales to invest in new housing stock.....part of the reason we now have a massive housing shortage. Many of the council houses sold at discount rates by Tory Govts have ended up in the possession of buy-to-let landlords who make a good living charging high rents to tenants who cannot afford to buy a home at prices partly inflated by this sell-off....so there's a certain justice if such tenants, who've paid through the noses, get a discount at the expense of wealthy landlords.

 

Or is it only wrong to sell off private property at a discount, but OK to offer discount deals on publicly-owned property?

Such a pessimistic view of the future - I see no good reason why we shouldn't have a perfectly good trade deal with Europe that suits both sides by the end of 2020.  Conservatives are the party of business, and with proper leadership and strategy I trust that we will get that deal, and also that Boris wants it.  How on earth would it be in anyone interests to break the econony?  I don't see the logic of trusting Corbyn will be constrained by his party and parliament not to do daft things, but Boris will have free reign to turn us into the 51st state with no employment rights and screwed economy.

 

Who around Corbyn is high calibre exactly?  They seem like a bunch of idiots!

 

On your point around discounted property, I have no issue with right to buy from long term public sector tenants - but forcing the same on private landlords without compensation to marker value would be theft no?  Spending treasury money is a power we give to our government, even though it is our money.  Taking from indivuduals to give directly to others is stealing and would destroy a large section of the rental market overnight.  If I owner a rental property I would leave it empty rather than let it under a Corbyn government.  Maybe destruction of the housing market is what they want to achieve?

 

[Strokes]

33 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

It’s funny that in traditional tory/labour voters there seems an acknowledgment that neither leader is a preferred option but an absolute abhorrence at the alternative so are deciding to vote traditionally anyway.

 

There will be zero chance persuading me that Boris will do less damage to this country than Corbyn, I like neither of them but find a Boris Premiership abhorrent.

 

And obviously there are many Tory voters feel the same in reverse.

 

I’m undecided who to vote for. My district is Heaton Harris territory and last vote I think 2017 was 33k Tory 13K Labour and 4K Lib Dem...

 

I barely see the point without PR or AV being imposed. 
 

Pretty much sums it up. 
(obviously I’m on the reverse side)

[Jon the Hat]

42 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

The distraction of his jovial / "cuddly" / "charismatic" persona?

 

Inadequate consideration of what can realistically happen with the UK-EU future relationship, once the WA/divorce is done?

 

Inadequate consideration of what the UK's options will be as a comparatively isolated nation in a brutal world of big powers and big blocs?

 

Inadequate publicity for the simple fact that, under Boris' deal, various protections of standards were deliberately moved from the binding WA to the non-binding Political Declaration?.....Strong fvcking clue there!!

 

I also recall a particularly hardline ERG type explaining that he'd fall in line with Boris' Deal as Boris had assured him that No Deal in 2020 would still be a definite option.....indeed, it will happen unless we apply to extend the transition period by June, I think? Admittedly, Johnson is proven to be a habitual liar, so his word given to anyone cannot be taken at face value.....but he leads a parliamentary party, cabinet and party membership that is increasingly right-wing after a massive influx of former UKIP members.

 

Again why do you think our Parliament should not decide on our employment rights?  Do you not think any move to take them away would lead to a landslide majority Labour win?  That is the point - stop trying to give someone else the decision making powers!  They might also decide to create a European army (See Macron in the economist saying we cannot rely on the US in NATO anymore) and give someone else control of our nuclear weapons - If we even have any with Corbyn in charge,

[Alf Bentley]

40 minutes ago, MattP said:

Probably because he was one of first Tories to vote for gay marriage and gay adoption, in addition to that he's pro migration, was a popular mayor of the most multicultural city in the World and had even gone as far in the past as to suggest amnesties for illegal immigrants. 

 

They aren't generally traits of the hard right. 

 

 

Even if we ignore his willingness to indulge in socially illiberal rhetoric about "tank-topped bum boys", "watermelon smiles" and "letterbox" Muslim women and accept that he's socially liberal....

 

It's possible to be socially liberal but hard right on economic / socioeconomic policy.

 

I'm not sure whether or not that is his ideological inclination, as I'd see him as motivated more by personal power, ego and narcissism.

But it's certainly the inclination of a growing number in his cabinet, parliamentary party and wider party. Plus, a Hard Brexit brings an in-built economic pressure to move in that direction.

 

Terminology can confuse issues, but it's very possible that he could be a socially liberal PM but hard right on economic/socioeconomic policy - either by inclination, influence or force of circumstance.

[Jon the Hat]

34 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

It’s funny that in traditional tory/labour voters there seems an acknowledgment that neither leader is a preferred option but an absolute abhorrence at the alternative so are deciding to vote traditionally anyway.

 

There will be zero chance persuading me that Boris will do less damage to this country than Corbyn, I like neither of them but find a Boris Premiership abhorrent.

 

And obviously there are many Tory voters feel the same in reverse.

 

I’m undecided who to vote for. My district is Heaton Harris territory and last vote I think 2017 was 33k Tory 13K Labour and 4K Lib Dem...

 

I barely see the point without PR or AV being imposed. 
 

Imposed?  Sounds like a socialist plan to me!! 

[Jon the Hat]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Even if we ignore his willingness to indulge in socially illiberal rhetoric about "tank-topped bum boys", "watermelon smiles" and "letterbox" Muslim women and accept that he's socially liberal....

 

It's possible to be socially liberal but hard right on economic / socioeconomic policy.

 

I'm not sure whether or not that is his ideological inclination, as I'd see him as motivated more by personal power, ego and narcissism.

But it's certainly the inclination of a growing number in his cabinet, parliamentary party and wider party. Plus, a Hard Brexit brings an in-built economic pressure to move in that direction.

 

Terminology can confuse issues, but it's very possible that he could be a socially liberal PM but hard right on economic/socioeconomic policy - either by inclination, influence or force of circumstance.

Perfect!  Socially liberal, tough on crime and economically conservative is my bag baby!  Even though he is a dick.  

 

Happy to see Priti Patel saying they will criminalise Travellers setting up camp in parks and public spaces at will.  Long past time.

[twoleftfeet]

8 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

 

 

Who around Corbyn is high calibre exactly?  They seem like a bunch of idiots!

 

 

 

And Those around Boris are of a high calibre?

[The Guvnor]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

It's a pretty big thing for someone who was a sitting Labour MP a few months ago to ask his own voters to back Boris Johnson and the Conservatives in an act of patriotism. 

 

Have any of those you mention gone on record and asked people to vote for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour to stop Boris Johnson as he isn't fit to be Prime Minister - they haven't. 

 

That's the equivalence. 

Exactly, it's easy to play this down as a p#ssed off MP with a grudge slating Corbyn, it sounds much deeper than that, and you have to say a disaster for Corbyn with floating voters. 

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I just checked and Corbyn seems to be on the fence with this (): supports a constitutional convention to consider wider democratic reform, but favours keeping a direct constituency link (which STV and AV would do).

But I know that a fair number in Labour, including McDonnell, support reform. Maybe the Tories would offer an exchange: Brexit for PR? There's a dilemma....  If SNP were powerbrokers, I presume they'd prioritise IndyRef2.

 

1 hour ago, twoleftfeet said:

PR -who do you go to when you have a local issue as currently the local MP is supposed to represent the locals (hasn't happened with Brexit ).

 

 

I'd like to see a localised PR system brought in, perhaps county by county with roughly 10 or so MPs elected by each constituency. That way you could keep some sort of local link and you'd have the bonus of being able to go to an MP representing you whose political views might align with your own - and the system would also encourage better cross-party collaboration in terms of working on local issues.

 

I actually worked out how this would look for Leicestershire and Rutland (I was bored at work one day after the 2015 election), which is an ideal case study as it returns exactly 10 MPs. In the current system it returns 7 Tory and 3 Labour, whereas if I recall correctly the PR calculator tool I used worked out it would have returned 4 Tory, 4 Labour, 1 Lib Dem and 1 UKIP. Much more representative.

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

 

 

I'd like to see a localised PR system brought in, perhaps county by county with roughly 10 or so MPs elected by each constituency. That way you could keep some sort of local link and you'd have the bonus of being able to go to an MP representing you whose political views might align with your own - and the system would also encourage better cross-party collaboration in terms of working on local issues.

 

I actually worked out how this would look for Leicestershire and Rutland (I was bored at work one day after the 2015 election), which is an ideal case study as it returns exactly 10 MPs. In the current system it returns 7 Tory and 3 Labour, whereas if I recall correctly the PR calculator tool I used worked out it would have returned 4 Tory, 4 Labour, 1 Lib Dem and 1 UKIP. Much more representative.

 

Yes, that's the system I'd favour: Single Transferable Vote (STV) in Multi-Member constituencies.

 

I'd be opposed to an Israeli-style national list system (too much power to tiny groups & no local link).... No, I'm not an anti-Semite! 

[FerrisBueller]

Apparently the decision to block the Russia report rests entirely on Boris. Even tom Tugendhat is calling for it to be released.

A deafening silence from the people who have been banging on about democracy for the last 3 years.

 

THIS IS A COVER UP 

[twoleftfeet]

I think a system that only allows illegal immigrants to vote would be best.

[WigstonWanderer]

31 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Such a pessimistic view of the future - I see no good reason why we shouldn't have a perfectly good trade deal with Europe that suits both sides by the end of 2020.  Conservatives are the party of business, and with proper leadership and strategy I trust that we will get that deal, and also that Boris wants it.  How on earth would it be in anyone interests to break the econony?  I don't see the logic of trusting Corbyn will be constrained by his party and parliament not to do daft things, but Boris will have free reign to turn us into the 51st state with no employment rights and screwed economy.

 

Who around Corbyn is high calibre exactly?  They seem like a bunch of idiots!

 

On your point around discounted property, I have no issue with right to buy from long term public sector tenants - but forcing the same on private landlords without compensation to marker value would be theft no?  Spending treasury money is a power we give to our government, even though it is our money.  Taking from indivuduals to give directly to others is stealing and would destroy a large section of the rental market overnight.  If I owner a rental property I would leave it empty rather than let it under a Corbyn government.  Maybe destruction of the housing market is what they want to achieve?

 

Seems to me that this was what created the affordable housing issue at the first place. Thatcher flogged off the council housing stock to those who happened to be the current occupiers in a sort of bizarre lottery. Who’d have guessed that this would lead to a shortage of cheap housing for those who came after? (Yes, I am being sarcastic).