Expected Goals LCFC 21/22 Game by game

[Strokes]

11 minutes ago, Fightforever said:

XG is more useful at measuring how good an indvidual players' attacking postioning is then it is a measure of overall peformance. What worrries me with those stats is more that we are over reliant on Vardy being insane at finishing.

Individual stats already do that, it’s a crap stat.

[HighPeakFox]

I sort of already know the answer to this, but I wonder what the xG was in 2015/16... 

[Strokes]

[Phenom]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

XG is shit!

To simpletons, yes.

[Strokes]

Just now, Phenom said:

To simpletons, yes.

Glad you’re on board.

Edited 23 May 2022 by Strokes

[Golden Fox]

1 hour ago, AjcW said:

I mean if any of the players who provided amazing through balls to Vardy did the same when Daka was on the pitch we might at least get an idea of whether we have a potential replacement.

 

Can't for the life of me work out why as soon as he sets foot on the pitch we forget how to pass forward and into space, the lad is rocket powered and we're passing it into his feet with back to goal  

 

I know JV movement and intelligence is second to none, but we've got to at least give the poor bloke a chance to prove himself! 

Plenty of stats on that infogol site.

 

Its a stat with a lot of flaws, but I think the the best use of xG is to compare individual players - if you are outperforming your xG, you have that composure to put the ball in the back of the net. If you are not, then you Akinbye.

 

Our players from the season are below:

Vardy is a machine as we know - not just in conversion rate, but the number of times he gets in goalscoring positions.

Maddison has almost double the goals than his xG.

Daka doesn't fair too badly.

 

Barnes is below his xG, which won't surprise anyone!

 

[Jaspa]

So we struggle to create chances but have talents who can often score from difficult positions?

 

Stats are useful. You just have to think about what they mean in reality.

[Stadt]

1 hour ago, Dan LCFC said:

In-fact our first goal yesterday is probably a flaw in the system. Do both Vardy's shot and Maddison's shot accumulate? Because if they do it's a false representation of what happened. Maddison's never happens without Vardy's original effort that is saved.

 

It's never gonna be for everyone and I do totally get the point that it's trying to create science out of an art.

StatsBomb's (FBref uses SB data) model allows for this I'm 95% sure

[HankMarvin]

 

Xpts makes for more interesting reading 

[Strokes]

3 minutes ago, HankMarvin said:

 

Xpts makes for more interesting reading 

Get to 38.6 points and it’s guaranteed safety.

[lanefox]

Do they do advanced stats for missing your starting defence for most of the season, starting DM for 19 games and your star striker for 13 games?

[daddylonglegs]

2 hours ago, AjcW said:

I mean if any of the players who provided amazing through balls to Vardy did the same when Daka was on the pitch we might at least get an idea of whether we have a potential replacement.

 

Can't for the life of me work out why as soon as he sets foot on the pitch we forget how to pass forward and into space, the lad is rocket powered and we're passing it into his feet with back to goal  

 

I know JV movement and intelligence is second to none, but we've got to at least give the poor bloke a chance to prove himself! 

I think thats a fair point. 

 

However goals like Vardy's against Wolves... only he can do that. Goals out of absolutely nothing. 

[Phenom]

1 minute ago, lanefox said:

Do they do advanced stats for missing your starting defence for most of the season, starting DM for 19 games and your star striker for 13 games?

Lol all stats are pointless in a vacuum but they shouldn’t be discounted just because they are not commonly understood or because they don’t tell the whole story.

[Stadt]

9 minutes ago, lanefox said:

Do they do advanced stats for missing your starting defence for most of the season, starting DM for 19 games and your star striker for 13 games?

Sats only count when we have a 100% fit squad?

[filbertway]

1 hour ago, HighPeakFox said:

I sort of already know the answer to this, but I wonder what the xG was in 2015/16... 

https://understat.com/league/EPL/2015

[Dan]

1 hour ago, HankMarvin said:

 

Xpts makes for more interesting reading 

Surprised how high Man United are. They've been terrible every time I've seen them. Just an awful side.

 

I do think Wolves could be in trouble next season. Dark horse for the drop. They were largely bailed out by Jose Sa.

[fleckneymike]

5 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

Surprised how high Man United are. They've been terrible every time I've seen them. Just an awful side.

 

I do think Wolves could be in trouble next season. Dark horse for the drop. They were largely bailed out by Jose Sa.

We hardly fair much better in that table. 
 

I believe that in each of Roger’s seasons we’ve massively outperformed our xPts. That’s my concern ahead of next season - will we get caught out next year?

[Dan]

13 hours ago, fleckneymike said:

We hardly fair much better in that table. 
 

I believe that in each of Roger’s seasons we’ve massively outperformed our xPts. That’s my concern ahead of next season - will we get caught out next year?

Hard to say. I think what it proves more than anything is the good is largely linked to the quality of our finishing rather than build up play.

 

In Vardy we have an anomaly. He's probably the leagues best finisher.