Expected Goals LCFC 21/22 Game by game

[Guest]

Numbers provided by Infogol

 

GAME 1
WOLVES (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.55 - WOLVES 1.66
Actual score 1-0

GAME 2
WEST HAM (A)
XG WEST HAM 2.57 - LEICESTER 0.86
Actual score 4-1

GAME 3
NORWICH (A)
XG NORWICH 1.63 - LEICESTER 1.45
Actual score 1-2

GAME 4 
MAN CITY (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.81 - MAN CITY 3.02
Actual score 0-1

GAME 5
BRIGHTON (A) 
XG BRIGHTON 1.55 - LEICESTER 1.40
Actual score 2-1

GAME 6
BURNLEY (H)
XG LEICESTER 1.90 - BURNLEY 0.54
Actual score 2-2

GAME 7
PALACE (A) 
XG PALACE 1.30 - LEICESTER 0.91
Actual score 2-2

GAME 8
MAN UTD (H)
XG LEICESTER 2.78 - MAN UTD 1.14
Actual score 4-2

GAME 9
BRENTFORD (A)
XG BRENTFORD 1.39 - LEICESTER 1.01
Actual score 1-2

GAME 10 
ARSENAL (H)
XG LEICESTER 2.10 - ARSENAL 0.93
Actual score 0-2

GAME 11
LEEDS (A)
XG LEEDS 1.79 - LEICESTER 1.03
Actual score 1-1

GAME 12
CHELSEA (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.45 - CHELSEA 2.44
Actual score 0-3

GAME 13
WATFORD (H)
XG LEICESTER 2.30 - WATFORD 3.05
Actual score 4-2

GAME 14
SOUTHAMPTON (A)
XG SOUTHAMPTON 2.16 - LEICESTER 1.76
Actual score 2-2

GAME 15
VILLA (A)
XG VILLA 2.23 - LEICESTER 1.01
Actual score 2-1

GAME 16
NEWCASTLE (H)
XG LEICESTER 2.15 - NEWCASTLE 0.75
Actual score 4-0

GAME 17
MAN CITY (A)
XG MAN CITY 4.17 - LEICESTER 2.59
Actual score 6-3

GAME 18
LIVERPOOL (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.75 - LIVERPOOL 2.50
Actual score 1-0

GAME 19
SPURS (H)
XG LEICESTER 1.94 - SPURS 4.68
Actual score 2-3

GAME 20
BRIGHTON (H)
XG LEICESTER 1.92 - BRIGHTON 1.30
Actual score 1-1

GAME 21
LIVERPOOL (A)
XG LIVERPOOL 3.30 - LEICESTER 0.46
Actual score 2-0

GAME 22
WEST HAM (H)
XG LEICESTER 1.43 - WEST HAM 0.81
Actual score 2-2

GAME 23
WOLVES (A)
XG WOLVES 0.67 - LEICESTER 1.43
Actual score 2-1

GAME 24
BURNLEY (A)
XG BURNLEY 1.42 - LEICESTER 1.97
Actual score 1-2

GAME 25
LEEDS (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.39 - LEEDS 2.15
Actual score 1-0

GAME 26
ARSENAL (A)
XG ARSENAL 3.04 - LEICESTER 0.62
Actual score 2-0

GAME 27
BRENTFORD (H)
XG LEICESTER 1.15 - BRENTFORD 1.67
Actual score 2-1

GAME 28
MAN UTD (A)
XG MAN UTD 1.16 - LEICESTER 1.22
Actual score 1-1

GAME 29
PALACE (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.75 - PALACE 1.67
Actual score 2-1

GAME 30
NEWCASTLE (A)
XG NEWCASTLE 2.38 - LEICESTER 0.60
Actual score 2-1

GAME 31
EVERTON (A)
XG EVERTON 1.72 - LEICESTER 0.83
Actual score 1-1

GAME 32
VILLA (H)
XG LEICESTER 0.26 - VILLA 0.65
Actual score 0-0

GAME 33
SPURS (A)
XG SPURS 1.79 - LEICESTER 0.32
Actual score 3-1

GAME 34
EVERTON (H)
XG LEICESTER 1.80 - EVERTON 1.66
Actual score 1-2

GAME 35
NORWICH (H)
XG LEICESTER 2.36 - NORWICH 1.66
Actual score 3-0

GAME 36
WATFORD (A)
XG WATFORD 2.06 - LEICESTER 2.00
Actual score 1-5

GAME 37
CHELSEA (A)
XG CHELSEA 1.71 - LEICESTER 0.06
Actual score 1-1

GAME 38
SOUTHAMPTON (H)
XG LEICESTER 3.36 - SOUTHAMPTON 1.18
Actual score 4-1

[Strokes]

XG is shit!

[Dan]

We're incredibly fortunate to finish as high as we have done based on those numbers. We've easily got a top 5 set of attackers though.

[st albans fox]

We've watched the whole season

 

we know we didn't deserve to be eighth

 

don't need xg to tell us !

[daddylonglegs]

Would probably be useful if we had a summary, but I can provide one:

 

- We are totally mudded when Vardy retires.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Strokes said:

XG is shit!

Thank you for your valuable contribution 😄

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, shanetko said:

Thank you for your valuable contribution 😄

Have you got a breakdown of how they measure a chance and give it its rating?

[AjcW]

12 minutes ago, daddylonglegs said:

Would probably be useful if we had a summary, but I can provide one:

 

- We are totally mudded when Vardy retires.

I mean if any of the players who provided amazing through balls to Vardy did the same when Daka was on the pitch we might at least get an idea of whether we have a potential replacement.

 

Can't for the life of me work out why as soon as he sets foot on the pitch we forget how to pass forward and into space, the lad is rocket powered and we're passing it into his feet with back to goal  

 

I know JV movement and intelligence is second to none, but we've got to at least give the poor bloke a chance to prove himself! 

[Chelmofox]

If you redo those stats to show our points from each match instead of xg, then add those points up, you can find out where we came in the league. Genius.

[hackneyfox]

20 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

We've watched the whole season

 

we know we didn't deserve to be eighth

 

don't need xg to tell us !

We were 8th after 38 games, means we deserved to be 8th.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Have you got a breakdown of how they measure a chance and give it its rating?

Nope. I’m just providing the numbers.

It’s obviously not an exact science nor will it ever be but it gives an indication of the story of a game. 

There’s a reason it’s taken very seriously by a lot of top football clubs aswell as the bookmaking industry.

From an LCFC pov it’s clear we are getting by because we’ve been deadly accurate in front of goal compared to the actual amount of chances created.

Opposition teams have been generally wasteful in relation to the numbers.

Is that sustainable long term? To simply score nearly every half chance and hope the opposition miss most of theirs?
I’m no guru. But I suspect not.

[lanefox]

22 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

We've watched the whole season

 

we know we didn't deserve to be eighth

 

don't need xg to tell us !

We deserved to finish where we did….8th

[AjcW]

This thread has real potential  

 

Let's rename it 'Graham Potters spank bank of stats - A football hipsters guide to absolutely nothing relevent'

 

 

[KrefelderFox666]

This can only mean one of two things.

 

1. We were extremely lucky to pick up many of those points

2. xG is an awful measure

 

Or both!

[Dan]

1 minute ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

This can only mean one of two things.

 

1. We were extremely lucky to pick up many of those points

2. xG is an awful measure

 

Or both!

There'll be plenty of cope as 2 is far more convenient for us than 1, although I wonder if we're a bit of an anomaly in the same way Brighton are, albeit in the opposite sense.

 

I've said all along about xG, it's not perfect, it's not an exact science, but it's not total rubbish either. It's a better measure of a game than possession and shots which many use.

[Strokes]

12 minutes ago, shanetko said:

Nope. I’m just providing the numbers.

It’s obviously not an exact science nor will it ever be but it gives an indication of the story of a game. 

There’s a reason it’s taken very seriously by a lot of top football clubs aswell as the bookmaking industry.

From an LCFC pov it’s clear we are getting by because we’ve been deadly accurate in front of goal compared to the actual amount of chances created.

Opposition teams have been generally wasteful in relation to the numbers.

Is that sustainable long term? To simply score nearly every half chance and hope the opposition miss most of theirs?
I’m no guru. But I suspect not.

Unless we can understand how it rates chances it’s completely useless, and even after it may well be.

 

For instance, it might rate one on one’s massively higher than a free header from 18 yards. Well if you play with Peter Crouch or Jamie Vardy that metric should change, but does it?

[coolhandfox]

100 goals in all comps and people are making threads about xG

 

Any stat that give me the same chance of scoring a chance as CR7 is not a great measure of a game.

 

You can't use it in isolation in my view.

 

 

Edited 23 May 2022 by coolhandfox

[Strokes]

5 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

100 goals in all comps and people are making threads about xG

 

Any stat that give me the same chance of scoring a chance as CR7 is not a great measure of a game.

 

You can't use it in isolation in my view.

 

 

Expected goals against Southampton yesterday were 3.36.

All of our goals were clear cut chances, where I would have expected a goal 100%.
Then we had vardy’s 1v1, which Maddison finished off. Vardy again should have buried from Castagne’s perfect cross in the 1st. Plus all the other less chances.

So immediately I know I disagree with Xg, as I have it at flat 6 before counting the half chances.

Its a load of bollocks.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Expected goals against Southampton yesterday were 3.36.

All of our goals were clear cut chances, where I would have expected a goal 100%.
Then we had vardy’s 1v1, which Maddison finished off. Vardy again should have buried from Castagne’s perfect cross in the 1st. Plus all the other less chances.

So immediately I know I disagree with Xg, as I have it at flat 6 before counting the half chances.

Its a load of bollocks.

Oh so every good chance should be 100%? Right-o

[jammie82uk]

51 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Have you got a breakdown of how they measure a chance and give it its rating?

 

[Dan]

12 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Expected goals against Southampton yesterday were 3.36.

All of our goals were clear cut chances, where I would have expected a goal 100%.
Then we had vardy’s 1v1, which Maddison finished off. Vardy again should have buried from Castagne’s perfect cross in the 1st. Plus all the other less chances.

So immediately I know I disagree with Xg, as I have it at flat 6 before counting the half chances.

Its a load of bollocks.

There is none that are 100% unless it's probably literally on the line, and even then didn't Kanu once manage to put one over  

 

Maddison's was a gimme and would've been quite high but I doubt Perez's two were.

 

It accumulates and gives the total at the end. It's not perfect and as it rightly pointed out certain players will overperform it. Yesterday was probably our best performance for creating chances all season (although only after we'd gone 1-0 up from a gift).

[Dan]

In-fact our first goal yesterday is probably a flaw in the system. Do both Vardy's shot and Maddison's shot accumulate? Because if they do it's a false representation of what happened. Maddison's never happens without Vardy's original effort that is saved.

 

It's never gonna be for everyone and I do totally get the point that it's trying to create science out of an art.

[goose2010]

We were the 5th highest scorers in the league and conceded the 7th highest in the league so i don't think anyone needs some hipster stat generator to see the issues this season. 

 

surely XG just shows we have clinical finishers ? 

[Fightforever]

XG is more useful at measuring how good an indvidual players' attacking postioning is then it is a measure of overall peformance. What worrries me with those stats is more that we are over reliant on Vardy being insane at finishing.

[Strokes]

30 minutes ago, shanetko said:

Oh so every good chance should be 100%? Right-o

Yes falling to those players it should be, falling to Amartey or Ndidi for instance, no.

 

Without a breakdown of how chances are rated and then adaptions for personnel with different strengths, I don’t see how it’s useful.