Betting Thread

[whoareyaaa]

 

todays bet, not touching cash out now  

Edited 3 March by whoareyaaa

[Dan LCFC]

3 hours ago, The Bear said:

Yes when those really short prices mess your bets up it makes you mad! 

I think Rangers (1/8), Chesterfield (1/5) and Panathinaikos have now cost me a combined £800 in the last week.

 

I've landed 5 underdogs going ahead out of 8 as well and so far pocketed bugger all. That to me just rank bad luck, really bad variance.

[Dan LCFC]

10 minutes ago, The Bear said:

I wonder if you can use in-play teams for the 4 bankers? 

 

You could pick a later game or even next day for your outsider and then choose 4 teams who are winning 1-0 or 2-0 in play who you think should win. Shorter prices around 1.2 (1/5) but would be more likely to come in then. 

 

It says pre match only but I think that's just for the Acca Freeze leg. 

You can mix the days of the acca but nothing in play. It is utterly infuriating losing on the shorter legs (my three I'm banging on about were the shortest priced team I had each time) but I think you start to realise how frequently the underdog does actually go ahead.

 

I've got four today. Lets see which 1/12 shot (got my eyes on you Olympiakos) blows this.

[The Bear]

WTF. Man Utd score first, go to freeze it and it errors. Reload the page and the option is no longer there for any of the legs. 

[The Bear]

The hell Skybet you shysters?

 

 

[The Bear]

Absolutely fuming. What an amazing  coincidence it goes down the very minute Man Utd score first. 

 

Edit - It's back up and the leg is already showing as frozen. I'll let them off!  Must have had a massive overload of people doing the exact same thing. 

Edited 3 March by The Bear

[Dan LCFC]

I had the same thing. I was going absolutely skits  

[The Bear]

As long as Leverkusen go on to win I surely can't lose this one. Koln are a man down too. 

[Dan LCFC]

4 minutes ago, The Bear said:

As long as Leverkusen go on to win I surely can't lose this one. Koln are a man down too. 

Honestly given how the last week has gone I wouldn't even be that shocked.

[The Bear]

Leverkusen score 2-0 

 

Wow my Sofascore app alerted me to the goal about 5 seconds before I watched it live on Sky. 

 

Sporting and Anderlecht left for me. Sporting are as big a home banker as you could ask for. And Anderlecht are playing a side who've lost all their last 5 games without scoring a goal. 

 

If either of those lose I'm gonna be inconsolable 

Edited 3 March by The Bear

[StanSP]

2 minutes ago, The Bear said:

Leverkusen score 2-0 

 

Wow my Sofascore app alerted me to the goal about 5 seconds before I watched it live on Sky. 

 

Sporting and Anderlecht left for me. Sporting are as big a home banker as you could ask for. And Anderlecht are playing a side who've lost all their last 5 games without scoring a goal. 

 

If either of those lose I'm gonna be inconsolable 

If @Dan LCFC has also bet on them I'd be prepared

[The Bear]

3 minutes ago, StanSP said:

If @Dan LCFC has also bet on them I'd be prepared

Just had a look on Soccerway. Farense haven't won a single point away at Sporting since 1998....

[Dan LCFC]

14 minutes ago, StanSP said:

If @Dan LCFC has also bet on them I'd be prepared

I have Anderlecht. Brace yourself.

[The Bear]

20 minutes ago, Dan LCFC said:

I have Anderlecht. Brace yourself.

😭

 

As I said though. The other team has lost all of their previous five games to nil so it'd be a massive upset. 

 

I checked my bets at HT and realised I had another acca with Man Utd in so quickly froze that!! That might come in too now. Odds of 18.88. Hearts Women are 3-0 up after 40 mins. 

 

 

Edited 3 March by The Bear

[Otis]

Nice win off a free bet.

 

[Dan LCFC]

1 hour ago, The Bear said:

😭

 

As I said though. The other team has lost all of their previous five games to nil so it'd be a massive upset. 

 

I checked my bets at HT and realised I had another acca with Man Utd in so quickly froze that!! That might come in too now. Odds of 18.88. Hearts Women are 3-0 up after 40 mins. 

 

 

 some of those fixtures. I tried to cut a corner once and went for a load of 1.1-1.2 shots from really silly leagues without any research and I'm not even joking all four lost.  I assume they've all paid so far and you're just awaiting Depor.

[The Bear]

29 minutes ago, Dan LCFC said:

 some of those fixtures. I tried to cut a corner once and went for a load of 1.1-1.2 shots from really silly leagues without any research and I'm not even joking all four lost.  I assume they've all paid so far and you're just awaiting Depor.

Yes just waiting on deportivo for that one. Anderlecht and Sporting in the other. 

 

I only pick those really short ones after looking at the form tab on Skybet. The other team has to have not won in the last 5 and the home team winning at least 4 out of 5 and scoring plenty. 

 

Look at Deportivo. Not guaranteed but damn they've scored at least 4 goals in all of their last 4 games, and Lugo only 3 goals in 5.

 

Again with Hearts Women they were battering teams at least 3 nil constantly in their last 5.

 

 

Edited 3 March by The Bear

[Dan LCFC]

We're there. £380 from a tenner. I shall be back somehow.

[StanSP]

3 hours ago, The Bear said:

Just had a look on Soccerway. Farense haven't won a single point away at Sporting since 1998....

They're making hard work of it

 

[The Bear]

Just now, Dan LCFC said:

We're there. £380 from a tenner. I shall be back somehow.

Nice one. I'll be increasing my stakes after this weekend's test. 

 

Sporting just conceded for 2-2 then immediately scored again to go 3-2, with a VAR check. Deportivo conceded for 2-1 now too. 

 

I might bite the bullet and just cash out for a few quid less to make sure of a return. As long as I make £40 from a tenner's worth of bets this weekend I'm happy. 

[Dan LCFC]

6 minutes ago, The Bear said:

Nice one. I'll be increasing my stakes after this weekend's test. 

 

Sporting just conceded for 2-2 then immediately scored again to go 3-2, with a VAR check. Deportivo conceded for 2-1 now too. 

 

I might bite the bullet and just cash out for a few quid less to make sure of a return. As long as I make £40 from a tenner's worth of bets this weekend I'm happy. 

My plan all along was to do fivers until I got to £500, tenners until £1,000 and then twenties. But just went a bit mad with it this weekend given I'm probably banned.

 

That Anderlecht game was torture. They were rubbish. Made really hard work of it.

 

If Farense take the lead at any point here I will another £400. They've actually brought this back from 2-0 down but conceded straight away. Would be amazed if they went ahead now.

Edited 3 March by Dan LCFC

[The Bear]

I shat it and cashed out. Deportivo just got a red card after too so glad I did. 

 

Instead of £49.68 I win £45.94. I'll take that  3.5/1 return.

 

Good strategy, thanks Dan. No doubt if I continue winning at higher stakes they'll put a stop to me too. 

Edited 3 March by The Bear

[Dan LCFC]

6 minutes ago, The Bear said:

I shat it and cashed out. Deportivo just got a red card after too so glad I did. 

 

Instead of £49.68 I win £45.94. I'll take that  3.5/1 return.

 

Good strategy, thanks Dan. No doubt if I continue winning at higher stakes they'll put a stop to me too. 

It's a winning strategy for certain. The odds are on your side.

 

Good win anyway. They will likely take the feature off you soon, but do what you can until then.

[The Bear]

1 minute ago, Dan LCFC said:

It's a winning strategy for certain. The odds are on your side.

 

Good win anyway. They will likely take the feature off you soon, but do what you can until then.

It's almost tempting to deposit enough to hammer it with max stakes until they notice. 

 

But doing that would likely be met with terrible luck from the betting gods! 

[Dan LCFC]

9 hours ago, The Bear said:

It's almost tempting to deposit enough to hammer it with max stakes until they notice. 

 

But doing that would likely be met with terrible luck from the betting gods! 

Yeah I know what you mean, I just think the fear is that you'll end up going on a shit run and losing it all. Like for all I champion the method, it isn't impossible to lose say 15 times in a row, at £20 a pop that's £300 down, which is why until I was banned I was just going to incrementally boost what I stake until I'd hit a certain level.

 

So of the nine teams I put in here over the weekend, four of them actually did lead, Jong Ajax (8/1), Freiburg (5/1), Valencia (17/4) and Man Utd (9/1) and of those, Rangers ruined my first three for a grand total of £572 providing Inter beat Genoa later, which is very annoying. But the Man Utd one ended up landing me £380. Farense remarkably went 2-0 down but then brought it back to 2-2, only to concede a minute later. That would've been a massive one. Sporting definitely worth looking at, that's 5 goals conceded in 2 games to Rio Ave and Farense as a side who frequently go off at about 1/5.

 

In total since doing this I'm £435.35 up and that's despite having some genuinely crap luck on some of the safest looking teams. I suppose the flip side is you're relying on luck to land your outsider. To be honest, it's all luck, it's just that the odds are shifted heavily in your favour which is why the bookies won't stand for it.

 

My entire record is 40 bets and 4 wins. So I win at a rate of 10% yet the average odds I've backed at have been at around 36/1 - which implies I should win around 2.73% of the time. My four wins came at 17/1, 31/1, 11/1 and 37/1. If they hadn't have taken away the Greek league I would've landed AEK - PAS Giannina at 45/1! It may not be for everyone but this is just way too good a loophole to not get on for me. It feels like the easiest money I've ever made.

 

Tried putting on a couple in Sheff Utd & Genoa for later but the freeze icon has indeed gone so I may be looking for favours off family members here  good luck to anybody doing it. It's quite fun.