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filbertway

Betting Thread

By filbertway, in General Football and Sport

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The Bear

The Bear

Posted
Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Dan LCFC said:

Quite like Freiburg, Jong Ajax and Top Oss tonight. Remember, just to go ahead, freeze them if they do. I reckon one of them will lead.

So you'd have 3 different accas, with the same 4 other teams? 

 

I've already done one for Sat and Sun. Motherwell away at Rangers, and Koln at home to Leverkusen. 

 

Have you ever picked both teams in a match in the same acca, so Freiburg to win, then Bayern to win? Hope Freiburg take the lead, freeze that leg and then hope Bayern go on to win? Might be a bit obvious and suss though and get restricted quicker. 

 

Edit - I've done another one with Top Oss. I fancy them to score first. 

Edited by The Bear
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Dan LCFC

Dan LCFC

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, The Bear said:

So you'd have 3 different accas, with the same 4 other teams? 

 

I've already done one for Sat and Sun. Motherwell away at Rangers, and Koln at home to Leverkusen. 

 

Have you ever picked both teams in a match in the same acca, so Freiburg to win, then Bayern to win? Hope Freiburg take the lead, freeze that leg and then hope Bayern go on to win? Might be a bit obvious and suss though and get restricted quicker. 

 

Edit - I've done another one with Top Oss. I fancy them to score first. 

I think unless you really want to keep the feature alive for your own betting then there's no harm in it really. Maybe there was a way I could've made it less obvious but I'm not really sure what. Lots of people have been bagged doing it.

 

You can't put two opponents in the same acca, but what I have done a few times is mix and matched, so for example, done two accas. Lets use these Dutch games as an example.

 

Den Haag v Jong Ajax

De Graafschap v Top Oss

 

I've not done this tonight, but in the past, I have done two accas like this...

 

Team A

Team B

Team C

Jong Ajax

De Graafschap

 

Team A

Team B

Team C

Den Haag

Top Oss

 

So the flip side is if your underdog goes behind, you at least get another one of your heavy favourites selections winning. The ideal scenario is the big outsider goes ahead and loses - which is still a fairly plausible scenario. The down side is any draw and you're bust on the lot of them.

 

Likewise for picking your other sides, probably best finding about 7/8 'safe' winners and just mixing and matching them a bit. Last weekend I landed Rio Ave to beat Sporting Lisbon at 12/1 (ended up 3-3) while Panathinaikos, at home to bottom of the table Kifisia, drew 1-1 having gotten a late red card and conceded. If I'd had Panathinaikos in every acca, I'd have been bust.

 

I've done about 25 accas, only won 3, but the point is the wins are at such excellent odds that you can't not profit. I think you've got to be severely unlucky to not profit doing it.

 

I'm rambling on a little now but to give an idea of the true value, take this accumulator with Ajax Reserves. They're 5/2 to go 0-1 up (therefore probably about 2/1 to lead the game at any time) yet I've got them at 17/2 to do this. If you have an accumulator with 4 teams at 1/5 and Ajax Reserves to go ahead at 17/2, this is giving you odds of 17/1 for something that is 'actually' about 5/1 to win. I think if you did this 100 times you'd be nearly certain to win quite handily.

 

I think the fact they've banned me from doing it proves it works.

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Dan LCFC

Dan LCFC

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, The Bear said:

Lol I literally picked the only one who conceded first out of your 3 picks. 

 

Typical me. 

I've made the mistake on these of picking the same 'other' teams though. One of them is bound to blow it.

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Dan LCFC

Dan LCFC

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

So what’s the difference between Accra freeze and the cash out option? Don’t use sky bet, seen it advertised and intrigued by what’s being said in this thread but I don’t understand how it actually works?

Basically if one of your teams are winning, you can 'freeze' them and it pays out that leg as a winner. What I've been doing is taking a massive priced team and then freezing them on the off chance they go ahead.

 

You can only use it 5 times a week, max stake on the acca is £20 and the acca has to have at least 5 teams. So it's quite hard to land one but you will land one at a better rate than the odds imply unless you're stupidly unlucky.

 

I'm banned from using acca freeze from Monday so I'm just going all out at them this weekend. The fact they've banned me tells you it works.

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Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot

Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Dan LCFC said:

Basically if one of your teams are winning, you can 'freeze' them and it pays out that leg as a winner. What I've been doing is taking a massive priced team and then freezing them on the off chance they go ahead.

 

You can only use it 5 times a week, max stake on the acca is £20 and the acca has to have at least 5 teams. So it's quite hard to land one but you will land one at a better rate than the odds imply unless you're stupidly unlucky.

 

I'm banned from using acca freeze from Monday so I'm just going all out at them this weekend. The fact they've banned me tells you it works.

Ah so if your team goes ahead and you freeze them it’s paid out at the price you took? That’s crazy

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goose2010

goose2010

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

Ah so if your team goes ahead and you freeze them it’s paid out at the price you took? That’s crazy

Correct. But has to be in an acca obviously. 

 

It is a bit mad (and not surprised no other firm have followed them) but obviously you still have to get the rest right. 

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Dan LCFC

Dan LCFC

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, goose2010 said:

Correct. But has to be in an acca obviously. 

 

It is a bit mad (and not surprised no other firm have followed them) but obviously you still have to get the rest right. 

And the latter bit is genuinely very hard. Like I said earlier, I got let down on this by 1/5 and 1/6 shots after landing two sides at 9/1 last weekend.

 

Even despite this you are being offered crazy odds. You don't have to win often to profit.

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Dan LCFC

Dan LCFC

Posted
Posted (edited)

Done six in total for the weekend, mixed a few of them up on different accas, but gone for...

 

Saturday

Valencia v Real Madrid

Braga v Estrela

 

Sunday

Koln v Leverkusen

Man City v Man Utd

Anderlecht v Eupen

Sporting v Farense

 

Do as you please with them. Reckon at least one of them has to have a lead at any point. Farense I don't really fancy, but the odds on them are so ridiculously high (20/1) that I just can't leave it. Usually don't like to go below 7/1 as a rule of thumb but however in Valencia v Real Madrid I'll make an exception as Real Madrid have quite a history of struggling there. In-fact Valencia have held a lead in that fixture in 6 of the last 8 seasons. Good luck anybody else if you bother!

Edited by Dan LCFC
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The Bear

The Bear

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, The Bear said:

I've already done one for Sat and Sun. Motherwell away at Rangers, and Koln at home to Leverkusen. 

Get in. Motherwell frozen at 14/1 :cool:

 

Just need these four to come in now:

 

Man City Women (already won) 

Derby (winning) 

Spurs

Leicester (:wave:)

Edited by The Bear
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Dan LCFC

Dan LCFC

Posted
Posted

I'm absolutely astounded at my luck on this. So I bag 8/1 and 9/1 winners last night yet get let down by the ****ing 1/8 in Rangers just to win!!! They've wrecked my Valencia acca as well which also paid out.

 

There really is nothing close to a banker anymore. I never thought it could be this hard just to pick four winners.

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Dan LCFC

Dan LCFC

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, The Bear said:

Get in. Motherwell frozen at 14/1 :cool:

 

Just need these four to come in now:

 

Man City Women (already won) 

Derby (winning) 

Spurs

Leicester (:wave:)

lol welcome to the house of fun. I dodged us completely. I had quite a bad feeling about that game.

 

Sods law I landed some juicier picks in Portsmouth (8/11) and Sheff Weds (5/4) but the 1/8? Nothing.

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The Bear

The Bear

Posted
Posted

I wonder if you can use in-play teams for the 4 bankers? 

 

You could pick a later game or even next day for your outsider and then choose 4 teams who are winning 1-0 or 2-0 in play who you think should win. Shorter prices around 1.2 (1/5) but would be more likely to come in then. 

 

It says pre match only but I think that's just for the Acca Freeze leg. 

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