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elangLCFC

For the maths geeks...

By elangLCFC, in Leicester City Forum

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Charnwood Norris

Charnwood Norris

Posted
Posted

I think 30 points from 18 games left will be enough (93 total).  Say W8 D6 L4 - I would take that

 

Champions over the past 5 seasons:

 

2012-13: Cardiff 87 points

2011-12: Reading 89 points

2010-11: QPR: 88 points

2009-10: Newcastle: 102 points (2nd WBA 91, 3rd Forest 79)

2008-9: Wolves: 90 points

Mark_w

Mark_w

Posted
Posted
However, will QPR win every game? No. Will Burnley? No. Will we? Yes.

 

Fixed.

StanSP

StanSP

Posted
Posted

I think 30 points from 18 games left will be enough (93 total).  Say W8 D6 L4 - I would take that

 

Champions over the past 5 seasons:

 

2012-13: Cardiff 87 points

2011-12: Reading 89 points

2010-11: QPR: 88 points

2009-10: Newcastle: 102 points (2nd WBA 91, 3rd Forest 79)

2008-9: Wolves: 90 points

 

That'd leave us with 96 points if we got 30 from 18. 

Deucalion

Deucalion

Posted
Posted

If we average usual automatic promotion form then we will get an average of 2 points per game.  This means we would finish on...100 points (A)

 

But what if we finish this season like last season?  In this case we would finish on...81 points.  This is worst case scenario.  ©

 

A midway average is something like 1.5 points per game, in which case we would finish on...91 points. (B)

 

Therefore, to finish above us in each scenario, each team would have to average...

 

QPR - 2.4 ppg  (A), 1.94 (B), 1.38 ©.

 

Burnley - 2.6, 2.1, 1.55.

 

Derby - 2.82, 2,29, 1.7.

 

Forest - 2.78, 2.31, 1,78.   (Actual 3 points pg since 1st Feb)

 

Reading - 3.11, 2.58, 2.

 

So...we could have a collapse like last season and only finish below Reading if they average 2 ppg.  If we average 1.5 points per game, then QPR and Burnley would both have to get 2 ppg to overtake us.  If we ourselves average 2 points per game, then it makes it very difficult for anyone to overtake us.  For the record, for the first 20 games of the season, so not including the current purple patch apart from the win away at QPR, we have averaged 2.05 ppg.  

 

By the way, I'm not a maths genius, I'm just not that interested in watching Take Me Out !!   lol

 

ps - for the record, I have not copyrighted 'worst case scenario'. ©   lol

Hack

Hack

Posted
Posted

92 is the highest ever 2nd placed finish. Aim for that and we're laughing

That would suggest 8 wins and 2 draws (26 points) out of 17 games left.  So if this is the 2nd place target being the highest anyone has got, that would suggest we can lose 7 games (just under half of the games left and still cant be caught).  I would think will the battle going on below us for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th  we wouldn't even need 92.  May 89 for second this year.

 

Any with a 10 and 11 point lead over 2 and 3 it is getting close to uncatachable.

Hirsty The Blue 94

Hirsty The Blue 94

Posted
Posted

Just did a little prediction of the top 6's final results, being as pessimistic as I possibly could about us and the others very generous and this is how it turned out.

QPR 95 points
Leicester 88 Points
Burnley 88 points
Reading 87 Points
Derby 82 Points
Forest 82 Points

That was with me predicting away defeats at Barnsley and home draws at Yeovil and Blackpool for us.


 

MajorDanby

MajorDanby

Posted
Posted

The highest ever 3rd place points total (over the last 15 yrs) was Bolton in 2000/2001. They finished with 87 points. This suggests that 88 points is enough to almost guarantee 2nd, meaning we need 22 points from 17 games, or 1.3 ppg.

Deucalion

Deucalion

Posted
Posted

What's on my mind is that if we can go on an 8 game winning run, then so can another team.

 

Any projection must allow for the unexpected, rather than assume teams will keep performing as they have been so far.

MooseBreath

MooseBreath

Posted
Posted

Right Qpr are averaging 2points a game. Extrapolating this they will get 92 points

Burnley are averaging 1.89points a game. Extrapolating this they will get 87 points

This would mean we need 27 for champions (1.58 pts per game) or 22 (1.29pts per game) for automatics basing it on the law of averages. For obvious reasons this isnt that simple but with so many games to go this would be the best way at looking at it. 9 more wins should do!!!

I concur with extrapolating current form being the most reliable method at this stage of the season.

The teams involved may well change but dips/improvements in form will balance themselves out, such that the team finishing in 3rd, whoever it is, will likely have around the current extrapolated result of 87pts.

This is better than looking at past seasons because it takes into account the current state of the league, in terms of how close it is, how many points teams playing at a certain level are likely to get, whereas in past seasons the makeup of the league may have been totally different.

You usually get a slight drop in form towards the end of the championship season as well, so I reckon 86 pts will be enough to get promotion.

MooseBreath

MooseBreath

Posted
Posted

bit of analysis on the reliability of extrapolation over the past three seasons (another wild Saturday night). You can also see that this season's top 4 are on higher totals at 66, 56, 53, 52, albeit with the odd difference in games played

CZc2v70.png

Deucalion

Deucalion

Posted
Posted

bit of analysis on the reliability of extrapolation over the past three seasons (another wild Saturday night). You can also see that this season's top 4 are on higher totals at 66, 56, 53, 52, albeit with the odd difference in games played

CZc2v70.png

 

The average deviation for the top 3 would seem to suggest that there will not be that much difference between the extrapolated total and the real total.  But...the season which most seems to resemble this one is 2012, where 3 teams finished on high totals.  In that season,  the top three all finished with more than was extrapolated.

 

You know what?  I think my thing was the best.  The reason is, it doesn't make any predictions.  What it does instead is show what a club must do to overtake Leicester in the event of Leicester continuing their form before the recent winning streak, or Leicester having mediocre form or Leicester collapsing like last season.

 

Not biased or anything !!   ;)  :thumbup:

Rincewind

Rincewind

Posted
Posted

What is the average total points for 1 2  3 over the last 4/5 years?

 

According to Mooses tables then we already have more than Cardiff did (60) which was the most points after 28 games. So we just need to match them. Although we were second that year at the same time 10 points below Cardiff. and gained only 18 points in the remaing games which is only  2 points more than we have now.

Deucalion

Deucalion

Posted
Posted

What is the average total points for 1 2  3 over the last 4/5 years?

 

The highest points total for 3rd in the last five years is 86.

 

Therefore, 87 should ensure promotion.

MooseBreath

MooseBreath

Posted
Posted

 

The average deviation for the top 3 would seem to suggest that there will not be that much difference between the extrapolated total and the real total.  But...the season which most seems to resemble this one is 2012, where 3 teams finished on high totals.  In that season,  the top three all finished with more than was extrapolated.

 

You know what?  I think my thing was the best.  The reason is, it doesn't make any predictions.  What it does instead is show what a club must do to overtake Leicester in the event of Leicester continuing their form before the recent winning streak, or Leicester having mediocre form or Leicester collapsing like last season.

 

Not biased or anything !!   ;)  :thumbup:

 

yep, it isn't quite as reliable as I was expecting. West Ham in 2012 is our nightmare scenario. Reading seemed to come out of nowhere to win it and that could happen again.

That said, we're 10(!) points better off than West Ham were. Incredible really.

Deucalion

Deucalion

Posted
Posted

  

yep, it isn't quite as reliable as I was expecting. West Ham in 2012 is our nightmare scenario. Reading seemed to come out of nowhere to win it and that could happen again.

That said, we're 10(!) points better off than West Ham were. Incredible really.

 

I cannot stop the butterflies or the anxiety, which is odd because we are in a fantastic position however you look at it.

 

I wish I could stop trying to predict the future and just enjoy the kind of season I have been craving for 10 years or so !!

 

:thumbup:

Hack

Hack

Posted
Posted

  

yep, it isn't quite as reliable as I was expecting. West Ham in 2012 is our nightmare scenario. Reading seemed to come out of nowhere to win it and that could happen again.

That said, we're 10(!) points better off than West Ham were. Incredible really.

So Moose,

 

Are you now on the bandwagon?  Looks like it!!!

Paulmot

Paulmot

Posted
Posted

bit of analysis on the reliability of extrapolation over the past three seasons (another wild Saturday night). You can also see that this season's top 4 are on higher totals at 66, 56, 53, 52, albeit with the odd difference in games played

CZc2v70.png

Hi Moose check your maths on the deviation differences ours last season and both of readings plus florist and some others

 

The table shows that present ppg can only give a rough guide 

 

Like to see the modified one :)

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