MooseBreath Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Hi Moose check your maths on the deviation differences ours last season and both of readings plus florist and some others The table shows that present ppg can only give a rough guide Like to see the modified one They're based on the position not the team, thinking is that it doesn't matter who comes where, but whether the current points total for each position is a reliable indicator as to how many points will be required
fazzyfox Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Hope it can all be done and dusted before final home game so we can have a carnival atmosphere with Rusty Lee and the bird from the X Factor entertaining us at half time, clappers supplied on the seats, Willie Thorne and Lineker joining Birch's run and, for a laugh, Conrad gets 90 minutes of first team action! Throw in a couple of hundred guys from Belgium and free pie and pint vouchers and you have a no expense spared celebration of undeniable quality.
Finnaldo Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Hope it can all be done and dusted before final home game so we can have a carnival atmosphere with Rusty Lee and the bird from the X Factor entertaining us at half time, clappers supplied on the seats, Willie Thorne and Lineker joining Birch's run and, for a laugh, Conrad gets 90 minutes of first team action! Throw in a couple of hundred guys from Belgium and free pie and pint vouchers and you have a no expense spared celebration of undeniable quality. Don't forget Top and Vichai riding in on elephants, and a two man penalty shoot-out with Logan in goal between Knockaert and Kermogant. And to finish off, the Kop and Family stand swap places.
Nalis Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 I think 30 points from 18 games left will be enough (93 total). Say W8 D6 L4 - I would take that Champions over the past 5 seasons: 2012-13: Cardiff 87 points 2011-12: Reading 89 points 2010-11: QPR: 88 points 2009-10: Newcastle: 102 points (2nd WBA 91, 3rd Forest 79) 2008-9: Wolves: 90 points Wow, Newcastle finished 23pts ahead of 3rd that season, impressive!
inckley fox Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Based on form so far this season we'll finish on 93 points, form is a good guide however still a huge amount of points to play for so anything could happen. Form Ratings P GD Pt W-D-L Index Points Odds 1 Leicester 29 +24 66 6-0-0 846 93 1.5 2 QPR 28 +16 56 4-2-0 838 85 4.5 3 Burnley 28 +19 53 2-4-0 823 81 34 4 Derby Co 29 +17 52 2-2-2 821 79 29 5 Nottm For 27 +15 47 4-2-0 824 76 34 6 Reading 29 +14 47 4-1-1 815 71 71 7 Ipswich T 29 +9 43 2-2-2 803 65 251 8 Blackburn 29 +2 42 3-2-1 797 64 251 9 Brighton 27 +7 40 2-2-2 816 69 201 10 Wigan Ath 27 +3 40 3-2-1 819 67 151 11 Leeds Utd 28 +4 39 1-1-4 781 60 501 12 Middlesbro 29 +6 38 2-3-1 792 61 351 13 Huddersfld 28 -1 34 2-0-4 783 59 301 14 Bournemth 28 -13 34 1-3-2 779 58 - 15 Blackpool 29 -14 33 0-1-5 770 54 - 16 Watford 26 +3 31 1-3-2 789 58 251 17 Sheff Wed 27 0 30 3-3-0 785 53 - 18 Birmingham 28 -3 30 1-2-3 782 53 - 19 Doncaster 29 -18 29 2-2-2 762 49 - 20 Bolton W 28 -13 28 0-2-4 788 54 - 21 Millwall 28 -26 26 1-2-3 764 48 - 22 Charlton A 27 -13 24 1-2-3 776 49 - 23 Barnsley 27 -20 21 1-2-3 765 44 - 24 Yeovil T 26 -18 20 1-0-5 743 42 - I'm sure this must be wrong - two points per game is 92/93, surely we're averaging better than 2 per game, no?
Carl the Llama Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 2 ppg x 46 matches = 92 points for promotion as a very rough guide. We need 26 from 17 = 1.53 ppg, which allows for a drastic form drop from our current 2.28 ppg.
Munshi Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 So we cant lose more than 7 games kind of. Watford - Win or Draw - Forest - Win or Draw Ipswich - Win Charlton - Win Wigan - Win Barnsley - Win Blackpool - Win Blackburn - Draw Ahhhhhhh I cant be bothered Fvck it we've won the league basically.
bluesbrothers Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 I think 30 points from 18 games left will be enough (93 total). Say W8 D6 L4 - I would take that Champions over the past 5 seasons: 2012-13: Cardiff 87 points 2011-12: Reading 89 points 2010-11: QPR: 88 points 2009-10: Newcastle: 102 points (2nd WBA 91, 3rd Forest 79) 2008-9: Wolves: 90 points If it's worth the analysis, it's interesting that the only one of those clubs that hasn't struggled after going up is Newcastle, miles away the best points tally holders. Maybe our points total will be a good gauge of how we do if we do end up as champions? I'd be interested to see the stats for survival of league champions based on points going back further, but there's a clear correlation looking at these 5. Even Wolves, with their spectacular collapse in the past couple of years, lasted 3 seasons and were comfortable in their first, reflecting their higher points tally.
Spudulike Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Just to look at this from another angle ... 50 points is the target to stay in the Championship. Charlton are currently 3rd bottom on 24 pts. That basically means they'll probably need to get as many points as us just to stay in the league. I think what I'm trying to prove is that we'll need to hit relegation form not to go up, I think.
Winnershfox Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Got an idea.! Lets start a new topic and revisit this in April!
Mark_from_USA Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 I think the best way to predict is like this: Home games against non playoff teams (3 points expected) Watford, Ipswich, Charlton, Blackpool, Yeovil, Wednesday, Brighton, Doncaster = 24 points Home games against playoff teams (1 point expected ) QPR = 1 point Away games against non playoff teams (1 point expected) Wigan, Barnsley, Blackburn, Bolton, Huddersfield = 5 points Away games against playoff teams (0 points expected) Forest, Burnley, Reading = 0 points 66 + 24 + 1 + 4 = 96 points, which should be good for the title. This is pessimistic for the away games. If they do better away they will get over 100.
J.Lisemore Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Anyone know what happened to the BBC score predictor? can't find it anywhere!
Rincewind Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Just to look at this from another angle ... 50 points is the target to stay in the Championship. Charlton are currently 3rd bottom on 24 pts. That basically means they'll probably need to get as many points as us just to stay in the league. I think what I'm trying to prove is that we'll need to hit relegation form not to go up, I think. That also means charlton have to hit champion form to stay up. Poor Lamby.
Bob Weasel Fox Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Got an idea.! Lets start a new topic and revisit this in April!ThisFar too early to get carried away with it all just yet We're in a promising position that's all
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