elangLCFC Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Statistically what do we need to guarantee promotion, does anybody know?
The Year Of The Fox Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 92 is the highest ever 2nd placed finish. Aim for that and we're laughing
Brainy Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Remarkable that we could hit the points tally we got last season within 30 matches. You would think 6 more wins and a few draws and we'd be safe.
FoxesAreBlue Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Fvck promotion. I want nothing less than the title.
Kitchandro Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 6 more wins and we equal the record for a season set in league 1.
Xen Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 To guarantee promotion? Since QPR and Burnley have played each other twice already, then they could both win all their remaining games. That'd put 2nd placed Burnley on 107 points, so we'd need to get 108 to guarantee promotion (via automatics). To get that, we'd have to get 42 points from 15 games (since by earlier assumptions we lose to QPR and Burnley), which is 2.8 ppg. Basically, thinking mathematically at this stage of the season is pointless, unrealistic and tells us pretty much nothing. Ask again with 5/6 games to go and the numbers might actually start to provide some insight. Edited because I accidentally gave QPR/Burnley 2 fewer matches. All numbers have been redone.
LanguedocFox Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 6 more wins and we equal the record for a season set in league 1. We got 96 points in League 1, so we need ten more wins to equal that. We can do it, though.
Sampson Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Well, Burnley have 18 games left, which means they could get 54 more points which would put them on 107 points, which means we'd need 42 more points to get 108 and mathematically certain. Of course that assumes QPR and Burnley will win all their remaining games, which won't happen.
Deucalion Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Just to frighten people Season 2011/2012 Last updated 1 Feb 2014 HOME AWAY Select Season 2013/2014 2012/2013 2011/2012 2010/2011 2009/2010 Pld W D L F A W D L F A Gd Pts 1 Reading 46 14 5 4 36 18 13 3 7 33 23 +28 89 2 Southampton 46 16 4 3 49 18 10 6 7 36 28 +39 88 3 West Ham 46 11 8 4 41 26 13 6 4 40 22 +33 86 4 Birmingham 46 13 9 1 37 14 7 7 9 41 37 +27 76 5 Blackpool 46 13 7 3 42 21 7 8 8 37 38 +20 75 6 Cardiff 46 11 7 5 37 29 8 11 4 29 24 +13 75 7 Middlesbrough 46 8 10 5 22 21 10 6 7 30 30 +1 70 8 Hull City 46 12 4 7 28 22 7 7 Read more at http://www.lcfc.com/fixtures-results/league-table/#HHVyOuZSoI0riouE.99
LanguedocFox Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Basically, thinking mathematically at this stage of the season is pointless, unrealistic and tells us pretty much nothing. You are right, of course. But it is nice to bask in the feeling for once, rather than working out how many points we need to be sure of avoiding relegation.
StanSP Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 From the start of the season, it's always been 2 points a game. We've played 29 games. We have 66 points. That's over 2 points a game. 17 games left. Technically, 2 points a game gives us 34 more points. That leaves us on 100 points. Depends on QPR/Burnley results and other teams who emerge and find some good form, rendering the above calculations towards pointless.
Kitchandro Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 We got 96 points in League 1, so we need ten more wins to equal that. We can do it, though. Yeh but I meant record number of wins.
LanguedocFox Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Yeh but I meant record number of wins. Ah, OK. We'll do that as well.
Guest Col city fan Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Just keep on playing like we have been. That'll get us promoted.
Swarles Barkley Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Right Qpr are averaging 2points a game. Extrapolating this they will get 92 points Burnley are averaging 1.89points a game. Extrapolating this they will get 87 points This would mean we need 27 for champions (1.58 pts per game) or 22 (1.29pts per game) for automatics basing it on the law of averages. For obvious reasons this isnt that simple but with so many games to go this would be the best way at looking at it. 9 more wins should do!!!
promised land Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Gap to third is all that really matters. But interestingly we are taking six points from quite a few teams so far.
Hirsty The Blue 94 Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Right Qpr are averaging 2points a game. Extrapolating this they will get 92 points Burnley are averaging 1.89points a game. Extrapolating this they will get 87 points This would mean we need 27 for champions (1.58 pts per game) or 22 (1.29pts per game) for automatics basing it on the law of averages. For obvious reasons this isnt that simple but with so many games to go this would be the best way at looking at it. 9 more wins should do!!! By that calculation almost everyone side will finish in exactly the same position as they currently are!
pazzerfox Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 i want 107 points!!!!! I want to Fu** Cheryl Cole but sometimes don't get what we want!
Munshi Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Lets just win every game, I think by winning every game we might get promoted, can the maths geeks confirm?
Leicester-Fox Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Based on form so far this season we'll finish on 93 points, form is a good guide however still a huge amount of points to play for so anything could happen. Form Ratings P GD Pt W-D-L Index Points Odds 1 Leicester 29 +24 66 6-0-0 846 93 1.5 2 QPR 28 +16 56 4-2-0 838 85 4.5 3 Burnley 28 +19 53 2-4-0 823 81 34 4 Derby Co 29 +17 52 2-2-2 821 79 29 5 Nottm For 27 +15 47 4-2-0 824 76 34 6 Reading 29 +14 47 4-1-1 815 71 71 7 Ipswich T 29 +9 43 2-2-2 803 65 251 8 Blackburn 29 +2 42 3-2-1 797 64 251 9 Brighton 27 +7 40 2-2-2 816 69 201 10 Wigan Ath 27 +3 40 3-2-1 819 67 151 11 Leeds Utd 28 +4 39 1-1-4 781 60 501 12 Middlesbro 29 +6 38 2-3-1 792 61 351 13 Huddersfld 28 -1 34 2-0-4 783 59 301 14 Bournemth 28 -13 34 1-3-2 779 58 - 15 Blackpool 29 -14 33 0-1-5 770 54 - 16 Watford 26 +3 31 1-3-2 789 58 251 17 Sheff Wed 27 0 30 3-3-0 785 53 - 18 Birmingham 28 -3 30 1-2-3 782 53 - 19 Doncaster 29 -18 29 2-2-2 762 49 - 20 Bolton W 28 -13 28 0-2-4 788 54 - 21 Millwall 28 -26 26 1-2-3 764 48 - 22 Charlton A 27 -13 24 1-2-3 776 49 - 23 Barnsley 27 -20 21 1-2-3 765 44 - 24 Yeovil T 26 -18 20 1-0-5 743 42 -
Fox92 Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Where's Rachel Riley when you need her? My calculations* highlight that we need around 41 points as Burnley have 18 games left. So: 18 x 3 = 54 53 (Burnley points) + 54 (which means they have to win every game) = 107 (but consider they've already played QPR twice). 107 - 66 (our points now) = 41 So 41 / 3 = 13.6 (which I count as 14) which takes us to Queens Park Rangers at home in April. Applied the same to second place QPR which gives me 14.6, it's still around the April mark. However, will QPR win every game? No. Will Burnley? No. Will we? No. *I maybe totally wrong here.
Merging Cultures Posted 1 February 2014 Posted 1 February 2014 Some one needs to run a regression on the points needed to get promoted. I don't have any stat software anymore unfortunately.
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