Guest MattP Posted 21 July 2015 Posted 21 July 2015 Found out my brother in law voted Tory (always voted Labour before) because (in his words) he didn't want SNP to break the country up. Wasn't that suppose to happen in Scotland with Tories voting Labour to stop SNP. It did in a few places, Edinburgh South (quite affluent as well) was held by Labour and vice versa in Dumfries with Labour voters voting for the Tories. The SNP cult was always going to be too big this time around for anyone to stop it, it will be interesting to see if they can manage to hold off enough responsibility to keep that going until 2020.
purpleronnie Posted 21 July 2015 Posted 21 July 2015 It did in a few places, Edinburgh South (quite affluent as well) was held by Labour and vice versa in Dumfries with Labour voters voting for the Tories. The SNP cult was always going to be too big this time around for anyone to stop it, it will be interesting to see if they can manage to hold off enough responsibility to keep that going until 2020. It seems they can do no wrong at the moment...feels a bit like ukip when they were riding high during the european elections, but as you say it's early days, you have to wonder if they've already hit the highest high and it will only decline from here on in, I'd imagine unless labour can somehow transform themselves (i.e new new labour ....no sign of that) then I can't see any major changes in the future and the Tories will be quite safe...unless of course we get a Labour/SNP alliance.
Guest MattP Posted 21 July 2015 Posted 21 July 2015 It seems they can do no wrong at the moment...feels a bit like ukip when they were riding high during the european elections, but as you say it's early days, you have to wonder if they've already hit the highest high and it will only decline from here on in, I'd imagine unless labour can somehow transform themselves (i.e new new labour ....no sign of that) then I can't see any major changes in the future and the Tories will be quite safe...unless of course we get a Labour/SNP alliance. It's probably even changed UKIP's opinion of the EU referendum, would they be better off losing it and hoping we get a similar split from other parties afterwards who backed the "in" campaign? The SNP went from a support base of around 14% to 50% on the back of that "no" vote. I don't think UKIP could ever hit those numbers but I wouldn't put it past them hitting somewhere around 30% in a election after an "in" vote if the main parties were seen to be as deviant as the Scots saw the Liberals, Labour and Conservatve party. That could deliver them 150-200 MP's. Looks clear to me now the SNP never wanted an alliance with Labour, they were happy to be part of the scare story, a Tory government is great for them, they don't have to ask for anything, can turn down all the offers of independence and blame them for anything that goes wrong. English votes for English laws will be parliament anyway by 2020, so any sort of Labour-SNP alliance would be totally pointless as they wouldn't be able to govern properly. I'm certain the Tories are safe in 2020, but 2025 the country will probably be looking for a change again, Labour have to keep themselves alive until the election though to stand a chance and give Umanna, Jarvis etc the chance to win, they have no divine right to be the opposition.
purpleronnie Posted 21 July 2015 Posted 21 July 2015 It's probably even changed UKIP's opinion of the EU referendum, would they be better off losing it and hoping we get a similar split from other parties afterwards who backed the "in" campaign? The SNP went from a support base of around 14% to 50% on the back of that "no" vote. I don't think UKIP could ever hit those numbers but I wouldn't put it past them hitting somewhere around 30% in a election after an "in" vote if the main parties were seen to be as deviant as the Scots saw the Liberals, Labour and Conservatve party. That could deliver them 150-200 MP's. Looks clear to me now the SNP never wanted an alliance with Labour, they were happy to be part of the scare story, a Tory government is great for them, they don't have to ask for anything, can turn down all the offers of independence and blame them for anything that goes wrong. English votes for English laws will be parliament anyway by 2020, so any sort of Labour-SNP alliance would be totally pointless as they wouldn't be able to govern properly. I'm certain the Tories are safe in 2020, but 2025 the country will probably be looking for a change again, Labour have to keep themselves alive until the election though to stand a chance and give Umanna, Jarvis etc the chance to win, they have no divine right to be the opposition. Completely agree with that Matt, interesting times ahead.
Guest MattP Posted 21 July 2015 Posted 21 July 2015 re: the original poll. Why wasn't Jeremy Corbyn in? Didn't you see him as leader material Bilo? It really is a shower this time around isn't it? Look at the votes from 2010. The current odds on favourite to be leader lost to Ed Balls and only just beat Diane Abbott. Ed Miliband 34.33% David Miliband 37.78% Ed Balls 11.79% Andy Burnham 8.68% Diane Abott 7.42% Ed Miliband beats David Miliband on second preference votes by 50.65% to 49.35%.
Guest MattP Posted 21 July 2015 Posted 21 July 2015 Completely agree with that Matt, interesting times ahead. It is, I was talking to a prominent local Kipper last weekend and we both agreed that Britain coming out the EU would pretty much kill the party off as they would serve little purpose to domestic policy, how hard are there MEP's really going to campaign for them to come out with passion? They'll be losing their 100k salaries (and outrageous expenses they don't even have to justify or account for) and be being put on the dole. I just don't see how they'll be able to do it and it's why I think they should take a back seat in the "out" campaign.
The Horse's Mouth Posted 21 July 2015 Posted 21 July 2015 It's actually quite sad the absolute state of the candidates, we'll be stuck with the tories forever at this rate
davieG Posted 22 July 2015 Posted 22 July 2015 The YouGov poll for The Times suggests that in the final round of voting, Mr Corbyn would get 53% of support, six points ahead of Andy Burnham. Shadow minister Tristram Hunt warned a Corbyn victory could reduce Labour to the status of a pressure group. Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall are the other candidates for the leadership. The YouGov poll suggests Mr Corbyn is the first preference for 43% of party supporters, ahead of Andy Burnham on 26%, Yvette Cooper on 20% and Liz Kendall on 11%. Taking second preferences into account the poll, of 1,054 people eligible to vote in the contest and carried out between Friday and Tuesday, pointed to a 6% Corbyn victory. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33619645
Guest MattP Posted 22 July 2015 Posted 22 July 2015 Oh my god this could actually happen I wonder how those MP's who now nominated him because they "needed him in the debate" but didn't support him and now regretting there actions, this could be the death. If they thought the Murdoch media was bad with Miliband wait until they get to a bloke who has hosted numerous Irish and Islamic terrorists, believes in a United Ireland, wants to give away the Falklands, supported numerous left wing dictators and wants the Queen to live in a council house.
Webbo Posted 22 July 2015 Posted 22 July 2015 "instead of signing on the dole now they have to work for their money". That's sort of the idea mate.
Guest MattP Posted 22 July 2015 Posted 22 July 2015 "instead of signing on the dole now they have to work for their money". That's sort of the idea mate. My favourite is the public sector worker, may as well have said what she meant - "I work in the public sector so it is in as much in my personal interests for the far left to get in as it is in a millonaire hedge fund manager's interest that the Tories do, but I need a moral justification so here's some bullshit about how the Tories are going to gas poor people"
Bettsj2 Posted 22 July 2015 Posted 22 July 2015 My favourite is the public sector worker, may as well have said what she meant - "I work in the public sector so it is in as much in my personal interests for the far left to get in as it is in a millonaire hedge fund manager's interest that the Tories do, but I need a moral justification so here's some bullshit about how the Tories are going to gas poor people" Would love to play her at poker. If she voted labour i'm a fvcking dutchman.
purpleronnie Posted 22 July 2015 Posted 22 July 2015 Would love to play her at poker. If she voted labour i'm a fvcking dutchman. Agreed, she said she knows very little about politics so a definate Tory voter. Maybe labour party should get together an edited a video of some loser Tories. Reminds me of the shitty stuff I saw in yanky land when their election was taking place, inane video after inane video.
Lionator Posted 22 July 2015 Posted 22 July 2015 Corbyn is the left's Farage. People say he is unelectable and maybe so, however, so is backstabber Burnham, tory Kendall and the utterly dreadful and uninspiring Cooper, none of those three would stand a chance in 2020. His politics are appealing to young people especially those who are waking up to the mess that they find themselves in which is mainly the fault of such a weak Labour party which simply cannot go trundling on in it's current guise and maybe it may take something drastic such as electing Corbyn as leader to make or break Labour.
Webbo Posted 22 July 2015 Posted 22 July 2015 Corbyn is the left's Farage. People say he is unelectable and maybe so, however, so is backstabber Burnham, tory Kendall and the utterly dreadful and uninspiring Cooper, none of those three would stand a chance in 2020. His politics are appealing to young people especially those who are waking up to the mess that they find themselves in which is mainly the fault of such a weak Labour party which simply cannot go trundling on in it's current guise and maybe it may take something drastic such as electing Corbyn as leader to make or break Labour. Says who?
Webbo Posted 22 July 2015 Posted 22 July 2015 Why would the Tories be more popular than Corbyn ? Did you not see the last election result?
Webbo Posted 22 July 2015 Posted 22 July 2015 I meant to young people. I'm sure there are some young people who agree with Corbyn I don't see any evidence that he's popular with young people as a whole.
Bettsj2 Posted 22 July 2015 Posted 22 July 2015 The one thing that Jezza would do that the other three wouldnt, is actually form an effective opposition. The other 3 would literally just be tit for tat politics, playing it safe, attacking the Tories without substance. Corbyn will give them a right load of shit andaje it uncomfortable for them. He wouldnt win an election, but Labour are so damaged, they need to be effective in opposition again before thinking about governing the country. Sad as it may be, Corbyn is actually the best candidate.
The Horse's Mouth Posted 23 July 2015 Posted 23 July 2015 I do hope Corbyn gets it, rest of the candidates just appear to be blairites spouting shit about nationalism.
Rincewind Posted 23 July 2015 Posted 23 July 2015 First I would like to apologise for any comments I made about a parliament vote the other night. Someone said the vote was for amendments to the welfare bill. This seems to be correct. I saw a tweet from my MP giving a link which explains the procedure. It is all very cloak and dagger and somewhat boring in my opinion but some people like that sort of thing. Anyway The Tory's added some good things to the welfare bill which the majority of Labour MP's thought were OK along with bad things which they all strongly opposed making it difficult to vote entirely against it. So they called fr 'reasonable amendments' This bloke.Andrew Gwyne explains it better. http://andrewgwynne.co.uk/2015/07/21/gwynne-blog-debunking-the-myths-on-commons-procedure-and-the-welfare-bill/
Rincewind Posted 23 July 2015 Posted 23 July 2015 I am now arguring with people that I support and back over this voting thing. They ignored the reason for the amendments saying even those are wrong. At least with the amendments they may get some Tories voting for them. He says in that article that all parties have used these tactics so its nothing new.
Vacamion Posted 23 July 2015 Posted 23 July 2015 I am now arguring with pedople.... [Mr Freud writes]. Do they act suspiciously around children?
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