foxy boxing Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 it will mainly come down to key states like ohio ,most of if not all the inner states will vote trump while California and new York should vote Clinton.
Guest MattP Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 3 hours ago, leicsmac said: Trump is ahead 1% in one poll only. RCP poll average for the day puts Clinton 2.7 points up, which is still pretty damn close. Might do an update of my master state post from a while back with updated poll figures later if I have time and people are interested. Certainly would be interested. A lot of the swing states are now heading towards Trump rather than Hillary but they say in the US you shouldn't take notice of polls until after Labor Day.
purpleronnie Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 I guess it's not that unusual especially after our referendum but Trump can lie and his fans don't seem to care. It's almost as if Trump doesn't care, he treats his continuas lying and it's ok because when he's caught out he just responds with a big F U ...which people see as an almost a new form of integrity, it's frightening. He can't be well informed because if he was he simply wouldn't say the things he does. Just take one random policy. The rounding up of illegal immigrants which is a hot topic in the US. How on earth could you do this? It's so impractical and unethical. All these working people who have families are going to get a knock on the door and get sent back to wherever? Just that ridiculas policy alone should rule him out. They have a problem with immigration but 12 million who are vastly law abiding working people with families and going to be sent 'home', its so crazy and brutal. So much terrible things going on in the US but he would want to concentrate the police force for that? Climate change?...well i could go on. Then you have Hilary, who was against gay marriage until very recently and then wouldn't admit she changed her mind. Seems inauthentic and a poor orator. She is supposedly a brilliant women but it simply doesn't come across but Trump is fascinating to listen too simply because you have no idea what he's going to say next. Hilary won't change much so its a difficult sell...just like the remain campaign, people like reform the yearning for something better. Hope Hilary wins but it really is a lesser of two evils.
Thracian Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 48 minutes ago, leicsmac said: Purely out of interest Thrac, as you seem to enjoy discussing the favourability of this one aspect of Trumps platform, are there any other areas that you believe he and the people behind him are right on? You may doubt me but so much about US politics is a turn-off for me and, while I've obviously noticed some of the Trump headlines, I've been no less inclined to ignore his publicity than all the rest, although I did say in an earlier post that Trump was conducting a marketing campaign and that should be recognised . Anyway I'll try to rectify my neglect and come back to you with a direct answer to your question unless you want to broach specifics, in which case, fire away. One general comment though... the "right" you mention or wrong are matters of perception. It depends on your standpoint. What irritates me more than different views though is hypocrisy. Something I welcome from Trump is his apparent desire to protect Christians, for all that I'm not a Christian as such. They really are under the cosh yet the reaction of the Christian hierarchy seems hardly noticed. It's like they're being disregarded much like the white working man but they don't live in this country so no one seems much bothered outside their own circles. . .
leicsmac Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 25 minutes ago, MattP said: Certainly would be interested. A lot of the swing states are now heading towards Trump rather than Hillary but they say in the US you shouldn't take notice of polls until after Labor Day. It shall be done! Here we are, with the latest info from RCP, once again taking anything above a 4-point lead as stronghold. RCP are a little more circumspect - I think their threshold for "toss-up" is 5 or 6 points. Democrat Strongholds California (55) Colorado (9) Connecticut (7) Delaware (3) DC (3) Hawaii (4) Illinois (20) Maine (4) Maryland (10) Massachusetts (11)Michigan (16) Minnesota (10) New Jersey (14) New Mexico (5) New York (29) Oregon (7) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Virginia (13) Washington (12) Wisconsin (10) TOTAL: 249 Republican Strongholds Alabama (9)x Alaska (3)x Arkansas (6) Georgia (16) Idaho (4) Indiana (11) Kansas (6) Kentucky (8) Louisiana (8) Montana (3) Mississippi (6) Missouri (10) Nebraska (5) North Dakota (3) Oklahoma (7) South Dakota (3) South Carolina (9) Tennessee (11) Texas (38) West Virginia (5)Wyoming (3) Utah (6) TOTAL: 180 Swing States Arizona (11) Florida (29) Iowa (6) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) TOTAL: 109 Based on that, it seems that the situation for the Dems has, if anything, improved since the last time I did this. They still only need either Florida out of the swing states to win outright, or getting Pennsylvania would at least guarantee a tie, even if Trump were to get all the others. Ohio or North Carolina + 1 would seal the deal too. Trump now needs Florida, Pennsylvania and at least two of NC, OH and AZ, plus all of the smaller ones if he doesn't get all three of the aforementioned. So he can afford to miss just one biggie (as long as it's not FL or PN) and must go 7/8 of the swing states, or 5/8 if he gets ALL of the big ones. But again, lose Florida or Penn and he's done. Tough ask.
The Horse's Mouth Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 12 hours ago, leicsmac said: And the people directly behind Trump aren't? Being atheist isn't going to mean jack or shit, let alone jackshit, if he wins. I fear you're missing the point regarding the policies of each party rather than each person. They are important. I didn't say it would, I was merely pointing out it's pretty insane for a country so indoctrinated with it's religion to vote for an actual out of the closet atheist. I wasn't making an either/or comparison anyway, but Clinton's definitely more dangerous. In terms of policies, Trump's policies he's put forward aren't even that bad it's only the immigration section as well as defunding planned parenthood that's a bit mental. Stuff like legalising marijuana is even more left than most of the policies Clinton's put forward.
Guest MattP Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 Great round up of polls now on the wiki page state by state. On the swing states Trump looks likely to win Arizona and Nevada. He could win Florida though, he's now been ahead in 3 of the last 4 polls there and it's notorious for bringing a bigger Republican vote to the electorate than polls suggest on voting day. Clinton likely to get New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio and Pen look very close, that and Florida is probably where the election is decided. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Arkansas
leicsmac Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 56 minutes ago, Thracian said: You may doubt me but so much about US politics is a turn-off for me and, while I've obviously noticed some of the Trump headlines, I've been no less inclined to ignore his publicity than all the rest, although I did say in an earlier post that Trump was conducting a marketing campaign and that should be recognised . Anyway I'll try to rectify my neglect and come back to you with a direct answer to your question unless you want to broach specifics, in which case, fire away. One general comment though... the "right" you mention or wrong are matters of perception. It depends on your standpoint. What irritates me more than different views though is hypocrisy. Something I welcome from Trump is his apparent desire to protect Christians, for all that I'm not a Christian as such. They really are under the cosh yet the reaction of the Christian hierarchy seems hardly noticed. It's like they're being disregarded much like the white working man but they don't live in this country so no one seems much bothered outside their own circles. . . Thanks for the response. I wouldn't mind hearing your take specifically on his immigration policy and the views of his party regarding abortion and gay marriage, though please come back to me with your view on other aspects of his platform too as you find out about them. Definitely agree with you regarding hypocrisy... ...which rather brings me to the point regarding Christians. I think that you're getting the view regarding how Christians are treated in this country and in the US a bit confused. Christians are still very, very much a protected species Stateside - hell, you'll see how much their dogma affects policy when you find out more about the Repub platform. Belief in the Christian God (specifically that one) has been practically a prerequisite for any Presidential candidate, even now. Even the quite frankly insane creationist platform holds quite considerable political sway over there - Trumps VP, Pence, is one who believes in it. And what really gets me about those fundys as the often blatant hypocrisy in saying to live a particular lifestyle and then getting caught up in various scandals involving them decidedly NOT practising what they preach.
leicsmac Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 7 minutes ago, MattP said: Great round up of polls now on the wiki page state by state. On the swing states Trump looks likely to win Arizona and Nevada. He could win Florida though, he's now been ahead in 3 of the last 4 polls there and it's notorious for bringing a bigger Republican vote to the electorate than polls suggest on voting day. Clinton likely to get New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio and Pen look very close, that and Florida is probably where the election is decided. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Arkansas He probably needs all three. Do you reckon he can get all of those plus FL? I honestly think Clinton will do enough to pull one of them and that will be all she'll need.
Guest MattP Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 6 minutes ago, leicsmac said: He probably needs all three. Do you reckon he can get all of those plus FL? I honestly think Clinton will do enough to pull one of them and that will be all she'll need. Unlikely but possible. Wikipedia's page has the Dems on 186, Trump on 115 and 200 within margin or error. It's not beyond possibility though that with a huge working class, white anti-establishment turnout Trump could steal blue collar states like Wisconsin, Virginia and (edit Michigan not Minnesota)
Thracian Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 Apologies - my point was general and more related to foreign policy. I was actually thinking about the treatment of Christians in the Middle East, Egypt and Africa which has been quite horrific.
leicsmac Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 12 minutes ago, The Horse's Mouth said: I didn't say it would, I was merely pointing out it's pretty insane for a country so indoctrinated with it's religion to vote for an actual out of the closet atheist. I wasn't making an either/or comparison anyway, but Clinton's definitely more dangerous. In terms of policies, Trump's policies he's put forward aren't even that bad it's only the immigration section as well as defunding planned parenthood that's a bit mental. Stuff like legalising marijuana is even more left than most of the policies Clinton's put forward. Yeah, it's something of an outlier, but not as much as you might think as he has a proper fundy for VP. Trumps immigration and social policies outweigh any benefit most of his other stuff might have, imo. When one party is going to make it next to impossible for a woman to make a choice regarding her body or allow two consenting adults to marry each other, or refuse to allow critical medical or other scientific research, for the ridiculous reason that an old book says it shouldn't happen (all the other stuff that shouldn't happen that's printed in that book being ignored, of course) then that tends to colour the view regarding most other policy. Like I said, my problem isn't much with Trump per se, but with the folks in his party.
leicsmac Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 9 minutes ago, MattP said: Unlikely but possible. Wikipedia's page has the Dems on 186, Trump on 115 and 200 within margin or error. It's not beyond possibility though that with a huge working class, white anti-establishment turnout Trump could steal blue collar states like Wisconsin, Virginia and (edit Michigan not Minnesota) Yeah, reckon wiki is accepting a bigger margin for swing states than I am. Clinton has around a 5-point lead in all of those states, so he's going to need to go some to turn any of those over. 7 minutes ago, Thracian said: Apologies - my point was related to general and more related to foreign policy. I was actually thinking about the treatment of Christians in the Middle East, Egypt and Africa which has been quite horrific. Ah right. Well, as I'm probably going to be settling down Stateside soon enough and have an American fiance, my focus tends to be more on domestic matters than only foreign policy for the US.
Guest MattP Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 5 minutes ago, leicsmac said: Yeah, reckon wiki is accepting a bigger margin for swing states than I am. Clinton has around a 5-point lead in all of those states, so he's going to need to go some to turn any of those over. If we still believe opinion polls, as we've seen here if you don't know the turnout they are often pretty pointless, I the days of taking opinion polls as gospel are long gone, polling bodies now seem to be incapable of contacing all sectors of society and the American ones might still be using the same methods as ours that are more biased towards young people and internet users.
leicsmac Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 9 minutes ago, MattP said: If we still believe opinion polls, as we've seen here if you don't know the turnout they are often pretty pointless, I the days of taking opinion polls as gospel are long gone, polling bodies now seem to be incapable of contacing all sectors of society and the American ones might still be using the same methods as ours that are more biased towards young people and internet users. I reckon given that polling is massive business in the US (both campaigns spend millions of dollars on it), they demand reliability and are able to get it in a way that you might not get over here. Polling information is so key for campaigning over there, they take it much more seriously than we do. Inaccurate information - polling or otherwise - wrecks campaigns, and people who give the inaccurate information tend to not last long in the US political arena. I think you have an idea of how vicious it can be. The pollsters over there are going to be very, very savvy, sparing no expense to make sure all technologies and demographics are catered for. Of course you can't treat them as gospel, but I think with a reasonable margin of error they are more trustworthy for building predictions than what we've got.
Thracian Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 5 hours ago, purpleronnie said: I think trump will need a clear lead going into voting day if he was to win, I though the remain needed a comfortable lead to win but they didn't. I simply can't see the American public voting Trump as their President. Don't see why not - it's certainly close enough at the moment.
Thracian Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 5 hours ago, purpleronnie said: I think trump will need a clear lead going into voting day if he was to win, I though the remain needed a comfortable lead to win but they didn't. I simply can't see the American public voting Trump as their President.
Thracian Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 14 hours ago, leicsmac said: And the people directly behind Trump aren't? Being atheist isn't going to mean jack or shit, let alone jackshit, if he wins. I fear you're missing the point regarding the policies of each party rather than each person. They are important. Donald Trump grew up in Forest Hills, New York, a suburb of New York City. He’s a New Yorker through and through. He’s been reported to have been a Catholic, a member of the Dutch Reformed Church, a Presbyterian and he married his third wife in an Episcopalian church.1 In his most recent interviews about religion, he’s said he is Presbyterian: Doesn't sound that atheist to me although many people go through periods when they view themselves as athiest. Yet again, this desire to box people is forever flawed. Views change.
leicsmac Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 13 minutes ago, Thracian said: Donald Trump grew up in Forest Hills, New York, a suburb of New York City. He’s a New Yorker through and through. He’s been reported to have been a Catholic, a member of the Dutch Reformed Church, a Presbyterian and he married his third wife in an Episcopalian church.1 In his most recent interviews about religion, he’s said he is Presbyterian: Doesn't sound that atheist to me although many people go through periods when they view themselves as athiest. Yet again, this desire to box people is forever flawed. Views change. I'm not entirely sure what your point is here Thrac - as I said I think Trumps own beliefs are irrelevant. It's the ones of the folks behind him that I think are very relevant, very unchanging and potentially very poisonous to policy.
Thracian Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 15 hours ago, leicsmac said: And the people directly behind Trump aren't? Being atheist isn't going to mean jack or shit, let alone jackshit, if he wins. I fear you're missing the point regarding the policies of each party rather than each person. They are important. Donald Trump grew up in Forest Hills, New York, a suburb of New York City. He’s a New Yorker through and through. He’s been reported to have been a Catholic, a member of the Dutch Reformed Church, a Presbyterian and he married his third wife in an Episcopalian church.1 In his most recent interviews about religion, he’s said he is Presbyterian: Doesn't sound that atheist to me although many people go through periods when they view themselves as athiest. Yet again, this desire to box people is forever flawed. Views change. i mentioned it because you and "The Horse's Mouth have both referred to Trump being an atheist.
Dr The Singh Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 19 minutes ago, Thracian said: Donald Trump grew up in Forest Hills, New York, a suburb of New York City. He’s a New Yorker through and through. He’s been reported to have been a Catholic, a member of the Dutch Reformed Church, a Presbyterian and he married his third wife in an Episcopalian church.1 In his most recent interviews about religion, he’s said he is Presbyterian: Doesn't sound that atheist to me although many people go through periods when they view themselves as athiest. Yet again, this desire to box people is forever flawed. Views change. i mentioned it because you and "The Horse's Mouth have both referred to Trump being an atheist. Well he allowed a Sikh prayer to begin his Republican rally, so he can't really be that hard line about religion
Thracian Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/16/politics/donald-trump-immigration-plans/index.html Regarding Trump's immigration plans, I'm not sure about the wall but do understand the specific problem of that particularly porous border and no-one else seems to have done much to improve the situation, which has caused endless problems. His basic principles apart from the that seem sound enough - enforcing immigration law, ensuring the policy means more jobs, wages and security for Americans, people being entirely checkable, border towns etc being penalised for not applying the law regarding immigration, visa tightening etc. I'm undecided about the birthright bit and, indeed most of the retrospective policies seem difficult or even impossible to bring about effectively although, again, I can understand him not wanting people to think that by sneaking in they can somehow acquire citizenship after a period of time either for themselves or their kids. Any illegal entry needs to be dealt with and more often than not penalised rather than rewarded. Either way I think the policy will be significantly modified. It's not the way I'd tackle immigration although it does provide some input and ideas. People need to understand that countries do exist - we don't have a borderless world and often for damned good reasons - so laws related to security need to be effective. All Europe shows now what the consequences of having lax immigration law and security brings about.
purpleronnie Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 1 hour ago, Thracian said: Don't see why not - it's certainly close enough at the moment. I don't disagree, but I feel the American public will in the end make the sensible choice...even though the choice isn't a great one.
Smudge Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 By law, no-one should be employed without a social security number. You obtain one of those from the government by producing proof of entitlement to work. If they really wanted to control illegal immigration more effectively, all they have to do is uphold the employment laws. Many employers in agriculture, hire their labor through companies who supply the the workers. I can't speak to the oil industry but I'd not be surprised if that isn't also the case. Over and above that there are millions working in the manufacturing or service industries working for a small business or home owner. The problem is, that these US employers can't hire gringo's to do menial work and if they only hired legals, the costs would skyrocket. That's what Trump faces and I believe he'll have no more of an answer if elected than now, because a Republican Congress won't support it.
MC Prussian Posted 22 July 2016 Posted 22 July 2016 4 hours ago, Thracian said: Donald Trump grew up in Forest Hills, New York, a suburb of New York City. He’s a New Yorker through and through. He’s been reported to have been a Catholic, a member of the Dutch Reformed Church, a Presbyterian and he married his third wife in an Episcopalian church.1 In his most recent interviews about religion, he’s said he is Presbyterian: Doesn't sound that atheist to me although many people go through periods when they view themselves as athiest. Yet again, this desire to box people is forever flawed. Views change. i mentioned it because you and "The Horse's Mouth have both referred to Trump being an atheist. Trump is a businessman first and foremost and religion only a suit he's wearing according to the occasion... He'll wear any suit if he thinks it makes a good impression on the people who see him wearing it. You may have also noticed by now that Trump SAYS a lot, but doesn't do a lot to follow up on it. He has simplistic promises to show for like building a wall and doing better trades than ever, improving education or the economy (without really knowing how). He's the man who mastered The Art Of The Deal, remember. (I get no royalties for promoting his book)
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