eunmac Posted 29 February 2016 Posted 29 February 2016 Wondered what it could be... so I entered all the worst possible results for us using this site (http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/) -Had us losing all our remaining 11 games 2 nil... -Everyone who could possibly catch us getting results in their favour to simply push us down. -[edit] FYI I allowed our title rivals to win against teams that had 56 points or more to rub it in. Ouch!! Mathematically we can still finish in 15th. But we're staying up:) For fun I then had all the top teams losing, bottom teams winning: Managed to get Bournemouth winning the league, with Us, Sunderland, West Brom and Watford in CL with Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool being relegated.Yes... All this is actually still possible.
Harry - LCFC Posted 29 February 2016 Posted 29 February 2016 That isn't correct. I can tell because you've put teams like Tottenham and Arsenal on 70+ points. A league table where we finished as low as possible would have Spurs winning one more game and losing the rest so that the other teams could have the points. Similar would apply to other teams close to us.
eunmac Posted 29 February 2016 Author Posted 29 February 2016 @@harry Not sure I know what you mean by 'correct'. The point of this table was just show the worse case scenario for Leicester. Big teams still doing well, everyone else doing well. The exercise was not to remove points from Tottenham or Arsenal and make them lose all their games (that is what was done in the second table). The results allowed as many teams below us to get past us using remaining fixtures. 'Worst possible results' in this context involves rivals winning where possible. Eg: if Spurs play West Ham who have 56 points or more from the results, then Spurs wins. So the way it worked was I allowed any team that needed points below 56 to gain as many points as they could via a win or draw. (Remember, teams that pass 56 pts still need to play and points have to go somewhere). I also let top 4 rivals beat the bottom 4-5 sides who could not catch us anyway. The result of two teams playing each other once they had passed Leicesters points tally did not really matter (so yes you could tweak a few results to change the top order if you wanted but a worse possible season for Leicester now is us being as low as possible and our rivals doing the best they can). If you think you can get Leicester lower than 15th give it a go! http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/
Daggers Posted 29 February 2016 Posted 29 February 2016 And what would the tables look like if we swapped the Kop with the Family End?
Nick Posted 29 February 2016 Posted 29 February 2016 And what would the tables look like if we swapped the Kop with the Family End? It lives.
Biggus Posted 29 February 2016 Posted 29 February 2016 Is it worth a tenner on that second table do you think?
Guest Col city fan Posted 29 February 2016 Posted 29 February 2016 And what would the tables look like if we swapped the Kop with the Family End? Bloody Hell! Daggers and Nick in the same thread...I'm not sure I can take it..
Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo Posted 29 February 2016 Posted 29 February 2016 Where the merry f**k have all Villa's goals come from in table '2'?? Agbonlahor
Finnegan Posted 29 February 2016 Posted 29 February 2016 And what would the tables look like if we swapped the Kop with the Family End? Villa top.
ceredigion Posted 29 February 2016 Posted 29 February 2016 There's something very wrong with the methodology being used in the above. Villa can't catch us but Sunderland can reach our current total of 56 points by winning all the games so they go above us on GD. But they have to play Newcastle, Norwich and Swansea. That would reduce Newcastle's maximum to 57, Norwich's to 54 and Swansea's to 57. Thus Norwich would join Villa as unable to catch us. It is impossible for us to finish 19th or lower. So even if we eliminate Villa and Sunderland from the equation and assume they lose all their remaining games bar the one Sunderland play against us and we lose all ours, the question remains, is it possible for all the teams currently above Sunderland to reach or exceed 56 points. I think not because Newcastle, Norwich and Swansea all have to play each other. If Newcastle win all their remaining games except the one against Norwich, and Norwich win all theirs, they can both reach 57 points and finish above us but that would entail both teams beating Swansea, whose maximum total would thus go down from 60 points currently to 54 and they couldn't then catch us. And that's without dragging Bournemouth into the equation. In other words, there is no longer any permutation of results which could see us finish in 18th place or lower. We are mathematically safe and the win over Norwich on Saturday guaranteed our survival. But please, nobody tell the players in case they take their feet of the pedal and treat the last 11 games as meaningless end-of-season fixtures.
Fox92 Posted 29 February 2016 Posted 29 February 2016 That's got to be somehow wrong. What method did you do - did you predict every result?
Raw Dykes Posted 29 February 2016 Posted 29 February 2016 This is the worst I could get, but as you can see, there are a few points to spare for the top teams, so I wouldn't be surprised if we could still possibly get relegated. I ended up only being able to give the spare points to other teams who didn't need them, and only being able to take points from clubs who couldn't spare them. OP, I think the mistake you made was that you kept giving wins to clubs who had already passed us. Once they've got 56 points, you can give the rest to clubs below us.
Harry - LCFC Posted 29 February 2016 Posted 29 February 2016 @@harry Not sure I know what you mean by 'correct'. The point of this table was just show the worse case scenario for Leicester. Big teams still doing well, everyone else doing well. The exercise was not to remove points from Tottenham or Arsenal and make them lose all their games (that is what was done in the second table). The results allowed as many teams below us to get past us using remaining fixtures. 'Worst possible results' in this context involves rivals winning where possible. Eg: if Spurs play West Ham who have 56 points or more from the results, then Spurs wins. So the way it worked was I allowed any team that needed points below 56 to gain as many points as they could via a win or draw. (Remember, teams that pass 56 pts still need to play and points have to go somewhere). I also let top 4 rivals beat the bottom 4-5 sides who could not catch us anyway. The result of two teams playing each other once they had passed Leicesters points tally did not really matter (so yes you could tweak a few results to change the top order if you wanted but a worse possible season for Leicester now is us being as low as possible and our rivals doing the best they can). If you think you can get Leicester lower than 15th give it a go! http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/ If you take the words 'worst case scenario' literally then the final league table could look worse than that. Raw Dykes has rightly pointed out that there's no need to give extra wins to teams that have already reached 56 points so those results could have gone to others. The worst case scenario would be one where: Leicester lose all their games and finish on the lowest goal difference (so a team would only need to reach 56 points to overtake us) The maximum number of teams finish on 56+ points That second point is the piece of information we're looking for, so that's where I'll start. Aston Villa don't have enough games left so we can rule them out. Norwich and Sunderland both need to win all of their games to reach 56 points but, since they still have to play each other, only one of them can get there so we'll rule Norwich out too. Now lets give the points from Leicester's, Norwich's and Villa's games to the opposition. This allows the highest placed teams to reach 56 points. Now that they're safe we'll give their remaining games to their opponents, and so on... It's a bit of a dull process so I won't write it out in full but basically, if you keep taking results away from teams who have reached 56 points and giving them to their opponents you end up with a table looking like this: I'm fairly confident that's 112 results distributed as (in)efficiently as possible. The shorthand for the working out I did is that there are 112 games left and the teams in the PL (not including Norwich and Villa) need 110 wins in total for each of them to overtake so, provided there are no troublesome clashes, they can all overtake. This is the worst I could get, but as you can see, there are a few points to spare for the top teams, so I wouldn't be surprised if we could still possibly get relegated. I ended up only being able to give the spare points to other teams who didn't need them, and only being able to take points from clubs who couldn't spare them. OP, I think the mistake you made was that you kept giving wins to clubs who had already passed us. Once they've got 56 points, you can give the rest to clubs below us. This isn't far off. Southampton still have to go to White Hart Lane so there will have been some way we could take three points from Tottenham and give them to Southampton, it may require a bit of fiddling with other results but it could be done. Otherwise perfect.
Raw Dykes Posted 1 March 2016 Posted 1 March 2016 If you take the words 'worst case scenario' literally then the final league table could look worse than that. Raw Dykes has rightly pointed out that there's no need to give extra wins to teams that have already reached 56 points so those results could have gone to others. The worst case scenario would be one where: Leicester lose all their games and finish on the lowest goal difference (so a team would only need to reach 56 points to overtake us) The maximum number of teams finish on 56+ points That second point is the piece of information we're looking for, so that's where I'll start. Aston Villa don't have enough games left so we can rule them out. Norwich and Sunderland both need to win all of their games to reach 56 points but, since they still have to play each other, only one of them can get there so we'll rule Norwich out too. Now lets give the points from Leicester's, Norwich's and Villa's games to the opposition. This allows the highest placed teams to reach 56 points. Now that they're safe we'll give their remaining games to their opponents, and so on... It's a bit of a dull process so I won't write it out in full but basically, if you keep taking results away from teams who have reached 56 points and giving them to their opponents you end up with a table looking like this: I'm fairly confident that's 112 results distributed as (in)efficiently as possible. The shorthand for the working out I did is that there are 112 games left and the teams in the PL (not including Norwich and Villa) need 110 wins in total for each of them to overtake so, provided there are no troublesome clashes, they can all overtake. This isn't far off. Southampton still have to go to White Hart Lane so there will have been some way we could take three points from Tottenham and give them to Southampton, it may require a bit of fiddling with other results but it could be done. Otherwise perfect. Turns out we can still go down. 18th is the lowest, barring any points deductions.
possiblygeorge Posted 1 March 2016 Posted 1 March 2016 Had us at 13th before the season started, interesting this
Captain... Posted 1 March 2016 Posted 1 March 2016 So 17 teams can catch us and only 1 team can't, does a point tonight guarantee safety? Just checked, if we win, or Norwich don't win and we get a point we are safe from relegation!
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