Labour party civil war

[Alf Bentley]

22 minutes ago, MattP said:

I don't know if anybody bothered to watch Owen Smith's speech this morning they should do, he put forward more policy in fifteen minutes than Corbyn has in nearly a year, anyone who says the latter hasn't had the time can't really be taken seriously after this if Smith can knock it up in a few weeks.

 

He says he would introduce a wealth tax on the richest 1% in society to fund the NHS and tackle inequality in Britain.

 

Mr Smith - who is challenging leader Jeremy Corbyn - said the "equality-busting" move would raise £3bn a year.

He also vowed to reinstate the 50p tax rate, strengthen workers' rights and end the public sector pay freeze, as he promised a workplace "revolution"

 

He also proposed:

• Reintroducing Wages Councils, abolished by former Conservative PM Margaret Thatcher, across different sectors of industry - to boost pay above the minimum wage in sectors such as retail and care
• Minimum guaranteed working hours and the abolition of zero hours contracts
• Scrapping trade union reforms that curb the ability of unions to call strikes
• To abolish the Department for Work and Pensions, replacing it with a Ministry of Labour and a Department for Social Security
• Build 1.5 million homes over five years
• Reverse cuts to capital gains tax and inheritance tax
• No more cuts to corporation tax
• Same rights for agency workers as full time workers
• Workers to be placed on company remuneration committees
• £200bn to be pumped into modernising Britain's schools, hospitals, railways and road network, funded by increased borrowing

 

 

I chanced to see most of this. My 12-year-old daughter was sitting watching it . She was impressed, though she likes Theresa May, too; she reckons Corbyn is "a liability" (and that's not come from me!)). 

 

For the second time, I was pretty impressed with him, both content and delivery. Though he made a silly comment about "smashing back" Theresa May, which will cause a distraction.

 

I can't see him winning as there seems to be such a bunker mentality among so many Corbynistas that they just won't listen to anyone else. Hopefully he can perform better than expected, though, and win over some of the more open-minded newcomers and longstanding left-wing members. On a couple of viewings he comes across as an infinitely better leader than either Corbyn or Miliband.

[IrememberBobHazell]

My wife, as is usual, came up with a phrase to sum it up. I'm a Tory but she is far from party political. She said (and I quote), "Oooh do we all get a free unicorn too?"

 Since we are leaving the European Union and heading back to 1970's style Politics it seems this gentleman wishes to take us back to those times politically too. To be fair to him with Labour on a hard left platform and new membership attached to that way of thinking he could hardly come across all Blairite to win, he has to take a more pragmatic approach to succeed.

 Is he better than Corbyn? Of course he is. Is the Prime Minister material? I very much doubt it.

[Darkon84]

Aaaaaaand the High Court rules that JC is to remain on the ballot paper and doesn't need MP's nomination. To be honest, I'm not sure why the High Court had to get involved in this, I'm open to be enlightened on it, of course. I didn't even know this was happening until about an hour ago

 

JC's statement following the ruling is as follows

 

Quote

 

I welcome the decision by the High Court to respect the democracy of the Labour party. This has been a waste of time and resources when our party should be focused on holding the government to account.

There should have been no question of the right of half a million Labour party members to choose their own leader being overturned. If anything, the aim should be to expand the number of voters in this election.

I hope all candidates and supporters will reject any attempt to prolong this process, and that we can now proceed with the election in a comradely and respectful manner.

 

 

I liked the part about holding the Government to account.....Why haven't you been doing that for the last year then Jeremy?

I think I have to agree though, it has been a waste of time.

[Guest MattP]

36 minutes ago, Darkon84 said:

I liked the part about holding the Government to account.....Why haven't you been doing that for the last year then Jeremy?

Blarite

[inckley fox]

On 27/07/2016 at 15:15, Alf Bentley said:

 

I chanced to see most of this. My 12-year-old daughter was sitting watching it . She was impressed, though she likes Theresa May, too; she reckons Corbyn is "a liability" (and that's not come from me!)). 

 

For the second time, I was pretty impressed with him, both content and delivery. Though he made a silly comment about "smashing back" Theresa May, which will cause a distraction.

 

I can't see him winning as there seems to be such a bunker mentality among so many Corbynistas that they just won't listen to anyone else. Hopefully he can perform better than expected, though, and win over some of the more open-minded newcomers and longstanding left-wing members. On a couple of viewings he comes across as an infinitely better leader than either Corbyn or Miliband.

I haven't been impressed by Smith. I understand the 'Corbyn-lite' accusations, but suspect a lot of that is about getting the foot in the door so he can allow the party to reoccupy the centre ground.

 

As for Corbyn, it's hard to have an opinion on his effectiveness as an alternative to the Tories when, by necessity, his tenure has been so much about what's going on within his own party. The collapse in the polls is because Labour are unfit to govern, and a huge part of that is the rest of his party never really respecting his mandate.

 

Still, he has to show more respect for the mandate of the PLP as elected representatives (he talks about democracy a lot, but he seems to think there's more democracy to be found among Labour members than in the wider public), because a permanent shift back to the left has to include the PLP.

 

Even so, I think there are more policies than people give Corbyn credit for. Off the top of my head there's public ownership of Royal Mail and railways, repealing the Trade Union bill, a fully public NHS, LEA control in a new 'National Education Service', decriminalisation of cannabis and a more generous welfare system.

 

Nonetheless, Corbyn has to provide viable opposition, and Corbyn's Labour feels too much like a 10 or 15 year project to me. The political situation right now needs - and will probably get, one way or the other - a proper opposition. Labour has fallen for the trap of the totally unelectable swing to the left twice, with Lansbury after MacDonald, and Foot after Callaghan. Divisiveness was a bigger problem than policy in both cases. If they want to win an election, they need to remember that.

[Sharpe's Fox]

 

Good interview by Owen Jones. The likes of Matt may scoff but he does actually ask some decent, probing questions and JC has the time to answer.

[Rincewind]

I'll watch it later just seen a couple of snippets so will need to see more.

[IrememberBobHazell]

Just a comment on the above, I'm not decrying Inckley fox who posted them, far from it. Call them personal observations.

"Public ownership of Royal Mail and railways. How much would that cost up front (obviously a lot). What actual benefit would be get from it?

 Repealing the Trade Union bill. This seems to me like a sop to his backers and funders. I personally don't see anything wrong with it. I tried to join a trade union once and had a rare old ding dong with the organiser because I didn't want to pay money to the Labour Party and I wanted to exercise my legal right not to pay the political levy. To have to opt in seems eminently sensible.

A fully public NHS - I'm a cynic on this. I'm an (occasional) user of the NHS not an employee. The NHS was set up to cure the ills of the nation and be free at the point of use. It more or less still is. This again seems to be more of a nod to his Trade Union paymasters because as long as the NHS does what it says on the tin what's the issue to non employees? Aren't they all public servants?

  LEA control in a new 'National Education Service'. I'm middle of the road on this. Some acadamies have done very well, some no so well. However just as I am suspicious on the reasons to force schools into acadamies i don't see anything halycon about going back to LEA's other than, oh yes, perhaps more Trade Union involvement.

Decriminalisation of cannabis . In this days and age not so controversial, it is this way abroad. Personally speaking I would go the other way and get more severe on it but that is just me.

A more generous welfare system. Devil in the detail for me. Which areas and for whom? Welfare generally is a very prickly area, its difficult to argue against many ideas to help but then, just like at the supermarket checkout when you have thrown too many goodies into the trolley, the final bill  can be scary.

 

Part of the the political 'game' is to be a salesman for your ideas. Mr Corbyn is not, and probably never will be, a salesman. He just isn't slick enough. That maybe to the detriment of the process but that is the age we live in.

[Thracian]

"You won't get me I'm backed by the union...." 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36942389

 

 

[Guest MattP]

On 7/30/2016 at 14:47, Sharpe's Fox said:

 

Good interview by Owen Jones. The likes of Matt may scoff but he does actually ask some decent, probing questions and JC has the time to answer.

I'll have a watch of this later and let you know what I think.

 

I'm presuming the questioning is fairly good as Jones has been receiving some terrible abuse over the last few days online, the usual stuff, Blarite, "go and join the Tories you faggot" - ironically from a bloke whose last profile picture had a gay pride flag over it in solidarity with Orlando.

 

16 hours ago, Thracian said:

"You won't get me I'm backed by the union...." 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36942389

 

The Unions, Students and the people of Liverpool behind him? He's right on course to win.

[inckley fox]

On 01/08/2016 at 15:08, IrememberBobHazell said:

Just a comment on the above, I'm not decrying Inckley fox who posted them, far from it. Call them personal observations.

"Public ownership of Royal Mail and railways. How much would that cost up front (obviously a lot). What actual benefit would be get from it?

 Repealing the Trade Union bill. This seems to me like a sop to his backers and funders. I personally don't see anything wrong with it. I tried to join a trade union once and had a rare old ding dong with the organiser because I didn't want to pay money to the Labour Party and I wanted to exercise my legal right not to pay the political levy. To have to opt in seems eminently sensible.

A fully public NHS - I'm a cynic on this. I'm an (occasional) user of the NHS not an employee. The NHS was set up to cure the ills of the nation and be free at the point of use. It more or less still is. This again seems to be more of a nod to his Trade Union paymasters because as long as the NHS does what it says on the tin what's the issue to non employees? Aren't they all public servants?

  LEA control in a new 'National Education Service'. I'm middle of the road on this. Some acadamies have done very well, some no so well. However just as I am suspicious on the reasons to force schools into acadamies i don't see anything halycon about going back to LEA's other than, oh yes, perhaps more Trade Union involvement.

Decriminalisation of cannabis . In this days and age not so controversial, it is this way abroad. Personally speaking I would go the other way and get more severe on it but that is just me.

A more generous welfare system. Devil in the detail for me. Which areas and for whom? Welfare generally is a very prickly area, its difficult to argue against many ideas to help but then, just like at the supermarket checkout when you have thrown too many goodies into the trolley, the final bill  can be scary.

 

Part of the the political 'game' is to be a salesman for your ideas. Mr Corbyn is not, and probably never will be, a salesman. He just isn't slick enough. That maybe to the detriment of the process but that is the age we live in.

I'm not supporting Corbyn's policies at all, just pointing out that they exist. It's a long time since I've been 'party political' so I tend to look at things, like you, from a purely observational point of view.

 

But, as regards your comments, and my own views:

 

Repealing the Trade Union Bill is a gesture. Unions are greatly shrunken these days and any Labour candidate, including Smith, who wants to stand a chance of being elected needs to demonstrate that Labour is moving to the left. Reinstating Clause Four would be a difficult promise to keep for anyone who actually expected to end up one day as PM (Smith may stand a chance here, Corbyn almost certainly doesn't), but repealing the Union Bill isn't.

 

As for Royal Mail and the railways, or even energy, there's no point in me pointing towards the wholesale post-WW2 nationalisation, as a lot of Socialists do, because it's not 1945 anymore. The cost? I honestly don't know. The sell off of Royal Mail was at about 3bn, wasn't it? And I heard that Corbyn's energy proposals could cost 150bn, which is probably why he's gone a bit quiet on that one! But I think Kinnock's view that nationalisation should be one of many possible measures is probably the sensible one. So long as we don't discount it all together, or go thinking that it's always the answer (Socialism, if it wants to continue to be relevant, needs to let go of this idea) we'll be alright. I'm against privatisation in the NHS and education because I know more about those areas, but I'd have to look into the other areas more to form a solid opinion.

 

With cannabis, I'm pro-legalisation. Not because I love drugs or anything like that, but rather because I think control tends to work better than prohibition. Depending on how much control you choose to exert, it could be very workable.

 

I broadly support his education proposals. I'm a teacher and I've seen the positive impact of LEA involvement, and I'm strongly against the movement away from this since the back end of the Brown era. It was a populist move - dressed up as giving schools and parents more power - but in effect it's led to chaos. And I'd argue against giving schools and parents more power as a point of principle. Education was revolutionised early on in the Blair era, but since the turn of the century it's become a plaything for successive populist governments instead of us focusing on ironing out creases where they occur.

 

As for welfare: I take the George Orwell view on this one. Welfare doesn't empower the poor or improve social mobility, it hides the problem. It's irresponsible of any government to encourage people simply to exist. I'm a big supporter of the Welfare State but I'd prefer the investment to go into social services and criminal rehabilitation. I'm probably a bit of a Blairite (ugh) in this area - intervene as soon as possible, and work closely with the police, social services and education to deal with problems effectively, and as quickly as possible.

[Alf Bentley]

4 hours ago, MattP said:

I'll have a watch of this later and let you know what I think.

 

I'm presuming the questioning is fairly good as Jones has been receiving some terrible abuse over the last few days online, the usual stuff, Blarite, "go and join the Tories you faggot" - ironically from a bloke whose last profile picture had a gay pride flag over it in solidarity with Orlando.

 

 

The Unions, Students and the people of Liverpool behind him? He's right on course to win.

 

Here's at least part of the reason why Owen Jones is now being abused as a "Blairite" () by some Corbynistas: https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/questions-all-jeremy-corbyn-supporters-need-to-answer-b3e82ace7ed3#.jwbsqtra1

 

I think that article is absolutely brilliant, particularly the latter part where he actually gets round to posing the "questions all Corbyn supporters need to answer".

 

Jones seems to have matured into one of the most insightful commentators out there.

[Guest MattP]

15 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Here's at least part of the reason why Owen Jones is now being abused as a "Blairite" () by some Corbynistas: https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/questions-all-jeremy-corbyn-supporters-need-to-answer-b3e82ace7ed3#.jwbsqtra1

 

I think that article is absolutely brilliant, particularly the latter part where he actually gets round to posing the "questions all Corbyn supporters need to answer".

 

Jones seems to have matured into one of the most insightful commentators out there.

 

A great read, some observations.

 

I don't really think the polling can be turned around now, it's too far gone, I think most people have already made up their mind on Corbyn, most people I know who I would class as "middle of the road" see him as anti-British, anti-success and as somebody who they certainly wouldn't trust with the security of their own country.

 

The problem with policy is he doesn't actually have any policy, he has soundbytes about making it better for poor, a nice World etc but these aren't policy, he talks about renationalisation of the railways and borrowing 500billion to invest in public service but deep down even he knows he can't do it, one of your favourite economists talks about it here, he told Corbyn and McDonnell when they got elected they had to learn about economics and fast, they didn't -  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/02/i-advised-jeremy-corbyn-economics-team-learn-fast--no-credible-plan-labour-leadership

 

His point about media strategy is perfect, I've heard his supporters claim he's going to win by mobilising support on Twitter, as Owen says less than 10% of the population use it and probably less than 10% of that use it for political reasons, the idea you can win an election ignoring the BBC and Sky whilst mobilising social media is so obtuse it's barely worth discussing, I doubt there is a single person on Twitter who has changed there mind about anything in politics, it's the classic preaching to the converted that has summed up his leadership so far. Winning over Tory voters isn't happening, most find him abhorrent, intolerable, hence his hideous personal ratings.

 

On Scotland, in his first speech he mentioned he has a plan to win back those votes, a year later I still don't think he's mentioned the word has he? Instead they've managed to do something I never thought I'd see in my lifetime let alone before the age of 35, finished behind the Tories in a national election.

 

The point about mobilisation is very interesting, I don't think they would want to mobilise them, it could turn it into an even bigger disaster, I remember when I told you about going to a UKIP meeting as a guest and when I spoke to a few of them over a beer my first thought was surely they can't let these lot do door-to-door, they'll lose more votes than they'll gain, it's the same with most Corbynistas I've engaged, in fact even worse, I can imagine them being bussed into places like Bury and turning any swing voter Blue when they start calling them a racist for leaving the EU or a fascist for not wanting more immigration.

 

I saw some pictures of a the Corbyn rally in Liverpool and someone was waving a Cuban flag, that pretty much summed up the crowd to me, you can stand in the middle of thousands waving the flag of an oppressive regime and no one batted an eyelid.

 

Don't expect any Corbynista to address any of this though, because I assure you not a single thing mentioned by anyone will be his fault. He needs to just get the Andrew Neil interview over with as well, he's made it clear he's going to pull him on working for the Iranian regime in a personal capacity and he should just get it over with and apologise.

[inckley fox]

On 03/08/2016 at 09:39, MattP said:

 

A great read, some observations.

 

I don't really think the polling can be turned around now, it's too far gone, I think most people have already made up their mind on Corbyn, most people I know who I would class as "middle of the road" see him as anti-British, anti-success and as somebody who they certainly wouldn't trust with the security of their own country.

 

The problem with policy is he doesn't actually have any policy, he has soundbytes about making it better for poor, a nice World etc but these aren't policy, he talks about renationalisation of the railways and borrowing 500billion to invest in public service but deep down even he knows he can't do it, one of your favourite economists talks about it here, he told Corbyn and McDonnell when they got elected they had to learn about economics and fast, they didn't -  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/02/i-advised-jeremy-corbyn-economics-team-learn-fast--no-credible-plan-labour-leadership

 

His point about media strategy is perfect, I've heard his supporters claim he's going to win by mobilising support on Twitter, as Owen says less than 10% of the population use it and probably less than 10% of that use it for political reasons, the idea you can win an election ignoring the BBC and Sky whilst mobilising social media is so obtuse it's barely worth discussing, I doubt there is a single person on Twitter who has changed there mind about anything in politics, it's the classic preaching to the converted that has summed up his leadership so far. Winning over Tory voters isn't happening, most find him abhorrent, intolerable, hence his hideous personal ratings.

 

On Scotland, in his first speech he mentioned he has a plan to win back those votes, a year later I still don't think he's mentioned the word has he? Instead they've managed to do something I never thought I'd see in my lifetime let alone before the age of 35, finished behind the Tories in a national election.

 

The point about mobilisation is very interesting, I don't think they would want to mobilise them, it could turn it into an even bigger disaster, I remember when I told you about going to a UKIP meeting as a guest and when I spoke to a few of them over a beer my first thought was surely they can't let these lot do door-to-door, they'll lose more votes than they'll gain, it's the same with most Corbynistas I've engaged, in fact even worse, I can imagine them being bussed into places like Bury and turning any swing voter Blue when they start calling them a racist for leaving the EU or a fascist for not wanting more immigration.

 

I saw some pictures of a the Corbyn rally in Liverpool and someone was waving a Cuban flag, that pretty much summed up the crowd to me, you can stand in the middle of thousands waving the flag of an oppressive regime and no one batted an eyelid.

 

Don't expect any Corbynista to address any of this though, because I assure you not a single thing mentioned by anyone will be his fault. He needs to just get the Andrew Neil interview over with as well, he's made it clear he's going to pull him on working for the Iranian regime in a personal capacity and he should just get it over with and apologise.

Corbyn's intention was always, he said, to 'change the way people went about politics', rather than to win an election. The problem is that if you're not even the Opposition because your party has splintered, or if you're practically unelectable (as Labour were after their mid-70s to mid-80s issues), then it counts for very little that you have a social movement behind you. There are far-right movements too which are less well represented in the views of the parliamentary Tory party than they were, but which have a lot of public sympathy. They're not going anywhere for much the same reason.

 

So, while I think there is a resurgence in left-wing politics - what with Podemos, Syriza, Sanders in the USA - it's still not one which is likely to re-shape politics. Corbyn's concern is, I always felt, that this faction of the Labour Party is under-represented in the PLP. Who is the young Corbyn, the Pablo Iglesias? If he were to drop dead tomorrow the movement would be shattered. I thought he wanted to preside over a re-alignment of a party, rather than a push for government, like Lansbury had before Attlee in the 1930s.

 

However the danger that the Party gets lost along the way, or that the policies he leans towards remain unelectable when he successfully pulls off this realignment, is a huge one. You mention the Cuban flag, but there was also a heckler yesterday when someone suggested that anti-semitism was an issue in Labour, along the lines of 'so what?' So the movement he talks about is unlikely to carry him to government, and will probably be just as tainted outside the Party as the Blairites are (understandably, I think) within.

[Guest MattP]

I watched the debate yesterday and couldn't believe the heckling when Owen Smith said he wanted to kick out anti-semites from the party.

 

Neither of them look like PM material, the only real winner of it was Theresa May.

[Jon the Hat]

So the hard left now control the Labour NEC, have their leader at the top of the party, and the support of the membership.  Just the small matter of them being on a completely different planet to the vast majority of labour MPs and oh yes the Labour voters.  Now what?

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

So the hard left now control the Labour NEC, have their leader at the top of the party, and the support of the membership.  Just the small matter of them being on a completely different planet to the vast majority of labour MPs and oh yes the Labour voters.  Now what?

If the MPs have any balls they leave the partry and form another.

[Guest Bilo]

1 hour ago, FIF said:

If the MPs have any balls they leave the partry and form another.

Jesus Phillips' tweet yesterday was interesting in that regard.

 

As for me, I'm reaching my end point. Once Corbyn is re-elected, I'll resign membership. This is no longer a party I can support.

[The Railway Man]

In 2008 I thought I would be voting Labour for the rest of my life, now I find them more odious than anything I could imagine. I hope a new party does form, we need a party of the centre left than stands up for the working class and completely distances itself from this student/middle class cult it has now become.

 

 

[Spiritwalker]

3 hours ago, FIF said:

If the MPs have any balls they leave the partry and form another.

While that's definitely an option it's more likely that they will wait until

they have been trounced at the next election and then retry ousting him.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Vader said:

While that's definitely an option it's more likely that they will wait until

they have been trounced at the next election and then retry ousting him.

pointless.

[The Railway Man]

5 minutes ago, Vader said:

While that's definitely an option it's more likely that they will wait until

they have been trounced at the next election and then retry ousting him.

could be too late by then, labour de dead everywhere outside London Liverpool and South Wales

[IrememberBobHazell]

Whilst a wholesale defection is a possibility I still find it hard to believe it will actually happen. You are talking about the most driven and motivated party operators with their careers on the line, people who have devoted themselves to the cause. That is a pretty strong bond to break. One or two may go but I find it hard to believe there will be more than a handful to either set up a modern day SDP or cross the floor to other parties.

 I think Vaders idea is the more likely. Accept that Mr Corbyn will probably lead Labour into the next election but keep their power dry and themselves quiet to say 'I told you so' if the expected drubbing actually occurs. Even under Mr Foot in 1983 Labour got over 200 seats,  there would still be a significant carcass to pick over in any reasonable scenario.

[The Railway Man]

40 minutes ago, IrememberBobHazell said:

Whilst a wholesale defection is a possibility I still find it hard to believe it will actually happen. You are talking about the most driven and motivated party operators with their careers on the line, people who have devoted themselves to the cause. That is a pretty strong bond to break. One or two may go but I find it hard to believe there will be more than a handful to either set up a modern day SDP or cross the floor to other parties.

 I think Vaders idea is the more likely. Accept that Mr Corbyn will probably lead Labour into the next election but keep their power dry and themselves quiet to say 'I told you so' if the expected drubbing actually occurs. Even under Mr Foot in 1983 Labour got over 200 seats,  there would still be a significant carcass to pick over in any reasonable scenario.

Whats the point? This isnt going away if if Labour only won 100 seats at the next election.

 

Even if Corbyn loses if will be the fault of everybody but him and the sect who have taken over will probably still want him to stay or elect someone like Diane Abbott.

[Strokes]

2 hours ago, IrememberBobHazell said:

Whilst a wholesale defection is a possibility I still find it hard to believe it will actually happen. You are talking about the most driven and motivated party operators with their careers on the line, people who have devoted themselves to the cause. That is a pretty strong bond to break. One or two may go but I find it hard to believe there will be more than a handful to either set up a modern day SDP or cross the floor to other parties.

 I think Vaders idea is the more likely. Accept that Mr Corbyn will probably lead Labour into the next election but keep their power dry and themselves quiet to say 'I told you so' if the expected drubbing actually occurs. Even under Mr Foot in 1983 Labour got over 200 seats,  there would still be a significant carcass to pick over in any reasonable scenario.

I imagine they will be deselected for a general election anyway, so the evil deed will be done if they wait. Fight from the front now and deflect if you lose is the only option I think.